Trump to win?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Trump to win?

I'd like to see some discussion of ways to test voter eligibility that include safeguards so legitimate voters are protected. I assume iTulipers do want all citizens to have the ability to vote.

I think somewhere in this thread people said things like "well you have to show a photo ID anytime you fly, don't you?" (Don't have time to track down the exact quote, sorry.)

I don't see any discussion of people who don't already have photo ID, and would find it difficult to get. Elderly people. People who don't drive. People who don't have their birth certificate tucked away on the shelf.

Earlier, Milton Kuo said:
Why is it that only the U.S., which has a problem with parasitic illegal aliens, cannot require a form of registration card that nearly every other country has

I think some of those other countries have a more unified bureaucratic system that starts at birth (France happens to be the place I've read about) so you don't have 80-year-old women suddenly asked to produce their birth certificate, which they have never needed before.

From the top of my head, here are some of the special challenges the United States would face in improving our voter registration and elections system:
_____ This is such a large country, so distance and bureaucratic issues are more challenging.
_____ Voter registration is controlled by the states, which have varying rules, and people move from one state to another all the time.
_____ You could have a single national voter registration system (as we now have a single Social Security number) but wouldn’t some people object to that as an infringement on liberty?
_____ Ethnic diversity and a past history of intentional voter discrimination.
_____ A highly-charged partisan atmosphere in which both sides seek to manipulate the electoral system for their own party’s advantage.

_____ Transition costs. We could picture a system that would be better than our current system, but we also need to think about the people-hours and financial cost to get it up and running, and ensure that every citizen ends up being able to vote without a lot of hassle.

_____ Election Day: keep in mind that the people actually running the places where people vote are volunteers (they receive a minimal stipend – perhaps $20 for attending training and $100 for election day.) Each state does it differently. Each election, you have some old hands but also a new batch of people who need to be trained. It’s no surprise that occasionally a batch of ballots gets mislaid (didn’t that happen in the Iowa primary this year?) because the people collecting and storing the ballots are like PTA volunteers.

_____ It occurs to me, while doing this list, that we might also want to think about gerrymandered election districts, which I understand are having a substantial effect on elections in some localities – I forget exactly where.

Earlier someone posted a link in this thread to the 2012 Pew Center Report on the US voter registration system. I appreciated reading that, and it shifted my viewpoint.

Right now all of us in the U.S. are surrounded by a highly partisan atmosphere, with both sides playing "gotcha." As iTulipers, we have past experiences of listening respectfully to each other, gathering data, and using all sorts of data to create more complex and valuable images of reality than any of us could do on our own. I wonder if we could apply those methods to the question: how could the US voter registration system be improved?

The first question to ask is; who are the most trusted people in each individual community? Then you will need to get them to recognise the upside potential for the entire nation, IF they get involved. Here in the UK, movement to a new location is automatically covered by a letter to establish who is eligible to vote at that address. The letter emanating from the local government for the region.

Personally, I find myself astounded to read here that the nation that tells everyone they defend the free world; has such a dysfunctional election system being actively scammed by the major parties governing bodies, such as the Democrats.

My personal gripe here in the UK is that today, every single voting slip, before it is handed to us in the voting room, has written upon it the identifying number of the voter; making it entirely possible for the civil service, the executive government for the nation, to be able to identify the vote of every single voter in the nation. Which is what happens when you allow total secrecy within such bureaucratic organisations; they become immune to law and make such immunity conventional. We all have problems, ours are simply different to yours in the US.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

For the 3rd time in it's 150+ year history The Atlantic magazine has endorsed a candidate for president. The first one was Lincoln, the current endorsement is for HRC. A few of their observations:

"...we are mainly concerned with the Republican Party's nominee, Donald J. Trump, who might be the most ostentatiously unqualified major-party candidate in the 227-year history of the American presidency."

"Donald Trump...has no record of public service and no qualifications for public office. His affect is that of an infomercial huckster; he traffics in conspiracy theories and racist invective; he is appallingly sexist; he is erratic, secretive, and xenophobic' he expresses admiration for authoritarian rulers, and evinces authoritarian tendencies himself. He is easily goaded, a poor quality for someone seeking control of America's nuclear arsenal. He is an enemy of fact-based discourse; he is ignorant of, and indifferent to, the Constitution; he appears not to read."

"...Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office..."

There's more here:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...-trump/501161/

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

here's at least some of the info you want
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/

A quick review of educational demographics for "white" voters makes it clear why Trump "loves the poorly educated".

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

I would really like to see some sort of map or graphic of the US electorate. How many people usually vote in presidential elections? How many people usually vote in off-year elections? What percentage of registered voters are "white men with college degrees" "white men without college degrees" "white women with college degrees" and all the other ways of describing the electorate?

What percentage of registered voters actually vote, generally speaking?

What percentage of adult citizens are not registered to vote?

Does anyone have this information at their fingertips? I'm used to seeing statements like "Obama brought in many people who previously were not registered," but I don't really have a picture of the whole map to which Obama, or Trump, or whoever has made/may make changes.

(Yesterday I came across a statistic saying the US population is now 70% white, 30% nonwhite. I can't remember where I heard that -- but if that's true then my image of this country is way out of date.)

here's at least some of the info you want
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/

[Ellen Z]

Re: Trump to win?

Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters
To be more specific, Trump is trading one type of white voter for another. Even as he piles up support among white men without a college degree, he’s on track for a record poor performance for a Republican among white voters with a degree. .

I would really like to see some sort of map or graphic of the US electorate. How many people usually vote in presidential elections? How many people usually vote in off-year elections? What percentage of registered voters are "white men with college degrees" "white men without college degrees" "white women with college degrees" and all the other ways of describing the electorate?

What percentage of registered voters actually vote, generally speaking?

What percentage of adult citizens are not registered to vote?

Does anyone have this information at their fingertips? I'm used to seeing statements like "Obama brought in many people who previously were not registered," but I don't really have a picture of the whole map to which Obama, or Trump, or whoever has made/may make changes.

(Yesterday I came across a statistic saying the US population is now 70% white, 30% nonwhite. I can't remember where I heard that -- but if that's true then my image of this country is way out of date.)

[Ellen Z]

Re: Trump to win?

Any system to verify voter identity and eligibility could in principle be used to exclude legitimate voters.

Should we therefore not test voter eligibility?

I'd like to see some discussion of ways to test voter eligibility that include safeguards so legitimate voters are protected. I assume iTulipers do want all citizens to have the ability to vote.

I think somewhere in this thread people said things like "well you have to show a photo ID anytime you fly, don't you?" (Don't have time to track down the exact quote, sorry.)

I don't see any discussion of people who don't already have photo ID, and would find it difficult to get. Elderly people. People who don't drive. People who don't have their birth certificate tucked away on the shelf.

Earlier, Milton Kuo said:
Why is it that only the U.S., which has a problem with parasitic illegal aliens, cannot require a form of registration card that nearly every other country has

I think some of those other countries have a more unified bureaucratic system that starts at birth (France happens to be the place I've read about) so you don't have 80-year-old women suddenly asked to produce their birth certificate, which they have never needed before.

From the top of my head, here are some of the special challenges the United States would face in improving our voter registration and elections system:
_____ This is such a large country, so distance and bureaucratic issues are more challenging.
_____ Voter registration is controlled by the states, which have varying rules, and people move from one state to another all the time.
_____ You could have a single national voter registration system (as we now have a single Social Security number) but wouldn’t some people object to that as an infringement on liberty?
_____ Ethnic diversity and a past history of intentional voter discrimination.
_____ A highly-charged partisan atmosphere in which both sides seek to manipulate the electoral system for their own party’s advantage.

_____ Transition costs. We could picture a system that would be better than our current system, but we also need to think about the people-hours and financial cost to get it up and running, and ensure that every citizen ends up being able to vote without a lot of hassle.

_____ Election Day: keep in mind that the people actually running the places where people vote are volunteers (they receive a minimal stipend – perhaps $20 for attending training and $100 for election day.) Each state does it differently. Each election, you have some old hands but also a new batch of people who need to be trained. It’s no surprise that occasionally a batch of ballots gets mislaid (didn’t that happen in the Iowa primary this year?) because the people collecting and storing the ballots are like PTA volunteers.

_____ It occurs to me, while doing this list, that we might also want to think about gerrymandered election districts, which I understand are having a substantial effect on elections in some localities – I forget exactly where.

Earlier someone posted a link in this thread to the 2012 Pew Center Report on the US voter registration system. I appreciated reading that, and it shifted my viewpoint.

Right now all of us in the U.S. are surrounded by a highly partisan atmosphere, with both sides playing "gotcha." As iTulipers, we have past experiences of listening respectfully to each other, gathering data, and using all sorts of data to create more complex and valuable images of reality than any of us could do on our own. I wonder if we could apply those methods to the question: how could the US voter registration system be improved?

[lektrode]

Re: Trump to win?

well.. speaking of white, blue collar men with no degree (read: us J6P's, aka 'the deplorables')

while this story likely wont get as much - if any - airtime as today's current 'feature' on the Clinton News Network (CNN)

• 'I think you have what it takes'
  
  clik here for the BOMBSHELL 'revelation' photo du jour
• 
  
  
  

and what could possibly be more important than... kim kardashian being... GASP!!!
robbed in paris...

5 Stories The Mainstream Media Ignored While Reporting On Kim Kardashian's Robbery

One of the saving graces of the ailing corporate media - for the folks setting the agenda, anyhow - is its relentless ability to hyper-focus the public’s attention on altogether meaningless events.

• Oct 5, 2016 11:45 AM

sides maybe... oh, i dunno, howzabout the obozo+hillbilly show setting up for the REALLY big distraction (of ww3)

but.. likely this one will be just MORE NEWS we WONT be seeing on the C...N...N...

NY AG Admits Clinton Foundation Failed To Provide 3 Years Of Tax Forms On "Donors And Contributors"

The New York attorney general's office quietly confirmed that the Clinton Foundation failed to file 3 years worth of supplemental tax disclosures regarding "donors and contributors."

That said, the AG decided not to brag about the discovery on twitter as he did with the Trump Foundation's investigation.

• Oct 5, 2016 2:49 PM

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters


Perhaps, it would be better news for Trump if he were at least trending in the right direction with white voters. But he’s moved backward compared with polls back in May and early June. Back then, Trump led Clinton by 17 percentage points, on average, among white voters. In other words, the longer white voters have had a chance to listen to Trump’s message, the more they have been put off by it as a group. [emphasis added-jk]

To be more specific, Trump is trading one type of white voter for another. Even as he piles up support among white men without a college degree, he’s on track for a record poor performance for a Republican among white voters with a degree. And right now, that tradeoff is a net negative for Trump, compared with Romney. If a ton of new white voters without a degree flooded into the electorate, that could change the math for Trump. But such a surge doesn’t look * like it’s in the offing.



----------
* There’s just one catch: If we’re on the cusp of a blue-collar Great Awakening, it’s not yet showing up in the registration data.

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

I don't understand what you mean. Are you saying that black people are currently unable to get drivers licenses or have to go through a far more difficult process somehow?

i mean that the id law and the closure of the dmv offices were not unrelated. they were deliberate acts to suppress african american votes.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Trump to win?

you sound like you think this is a bug, not a feature.

I don't understand what you mean. Are you saying that black people are currently unable to get drivers licenses or have to go through a far more difficult process somehow?

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Trump to win?

That's definitely a piece of it but I don't think it gets to the heart of the disagreement. As I see Trump supporters, they are completely and utterly disillusioned. I came across this cartoon which I think gets to the core issue rather well.

I think the cartoon is spot on. Trump at least talks about real problems. Not that his solutions are "real".

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Trump to win?

you sound like you think this is a bug, not a feature.

I don't know about your area, but in the last two states I lived in, 90% of the DMV employees were black!

Any system to verify voter identity and eligibility could in principle be used to exclude legitimate voters.

Should we therefore not test voter eligibility?

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

And if the DMV offices were closed in counties that are heavily black, how will black people get drivers' licenses or government-issued photo IDs, of which drivers licenses are the most common?
.

you sound like you think this is a bug, not a feature.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

...too bad for you and the rest of the so-called 'elite' that
so will chuck: (and, thankfully, so will woody)...

Yeah, but did you see where old Pat Buchanan was advancing the Woodsman political nihilism strategery?

What happens to America, if the uprisings and rebellions in the two parties - Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the GOP, the Bernie Sanders revolt in the Democratic Party -- are turned back, and we get in 2017 the same old people and same old policies we repudiated in 2015 and 2016? What happens if the election, in which America demanded change in both parties, results in change in neither party?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...on_131961.html

[wayiwalk]

Re: Trump to win?

Bill is out there claiming Obamacare is crazy because he is starting the dialogue for what Hillary will propose as the solution, which will be single payer.