Trump to win?

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Sure there are very few fake voters:

http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/b...ia-localities/

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump to win?

[FONT=&]"A 2012 Pew Center on The States study said "approximately 2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state."

I'm sure I'm one. All you have to do is move and get a drivers license and sign up to vote. Do you then go to the trouble of downloading a form and mailing it to your former county? Of course not.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

• Unemployment down from 10.1% to 4.9%
• 3X as many jobs created under the Obama administration than Bush
• Forbes magazine says Obama outperformed Reagan in jobs growth

If you make $400,000 a year or more, congratulations and yes, your taxes will most likely go up...as they should.



Bold statement but of course it's pure speculation. The Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld wars in Iraq and Afghanistan massively destabilized the Middle East. We'll continue to pay for that until their oil runs dry and we can sufficiently support ourselves with renewable energy sources and non Middle East energy supplies.

Orwellian is the word I'm always coming back to.

As short a time ago as February, the Ministry of Plenty had issued a promise (a 'categorical pledge' were the official words) that there would be no reduction of the chocolate ration during 1984. Actually, as Winston was aware, the chocolate ration was to be reduced from thirty grammes to twenty at the end of the present week. All that was needed was to substitute for the original promise a warning that it would probably be necessary to reduce the ration at some time in April.

It's the highest form of Doublethink to praise the status quo while understanding all of it based on the creation of only low pay, part-time, temp and ‘gig’ service jobs with no benefits, and in the face of crushing levels of student debt, escalating rents and health insurance costs under Obamacare, declining savings for tens of millions of retirees after eight years of near zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve, continuing free trade destruction and offshoring of US manufacturing, millions of homeowners still underwater on their mortgages, chronically rising household debt, perpetual wars, intensifying racism and police violence throughout the US, record levels of immigrant deportations, etc.—in other words, this president's legacy, which hangs like a thick political fog over the Clinton campaign threatening key constituency voter turnout in the face of surging support for Trump despite his big mouth and bigger ego, neither of which seem to do anything to slow his momentum five weeks before the election.

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

"A 2012 Pew Center on The States study said "approximately 2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state." Pew said 68,000 people were registered in three states, and 1,807 were even registered in three states."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016...elections.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...ID-laws-needed


"I see dead people.
In your dreams?
[shake my head no]
While you're awake?
[nod head]
Dead people like, in graves? In coffins?
In voting booths. They don't know they're Democrats."

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Hillary belittles Sander's supporters:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...io-leak-228997

[lektrode]

Re: Trump to win?

in reply to Tn's post below...

+1

huh?
never occured to me Ms Ellen, that you'd be... 'with them' ?
but i guess its going to come down to another 50.1 to 49.9 split decision, tween 'identity groups'

and The Rest of US, eh?

Justin Levitt (Loyola Law School) finds 31 cases of voter impersonation in one billion votes cast between 2000 and 2016. Meanwhile.......
...
The only voter fraud is voter fraud laws.

uh huh....
Riiiight:

Dead People Are Voting In The Key Swing State Of Colorado

Colorado voter fraud investigation finds dozens of deceased citizens voting for multiple years after their death.

• Sep 24, 2016 8:00 PM

and this seems to be contagious?

Meet The Young Virginia Democrat That Registered 19 Dead People To Vote In Virginia

Andrew Spieles had big plans to "help" Hillary win the key swing state of Virginia with a little help from some dead voters...except he got caught...oops.

• Sep 30, 2016 11:55 PM

yeah, that's an Ooops alright

its just gotta be another one of them russian plot/conspiracies ???

naaah... nothing to see there.

[Ellen Z]

Re: Trends Reported by 538.com

Go to:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo
_____ Scroll down the page to see trends over time. It looks as if the first debate had a significant impact.

538.com is not a polling organization; it aggregates polling data from many sources. Recently I read a paragraph by Nate Silver about their methodology... he said they were going to wait a few days after the debate for accurate polling data to roll in.... unfortunately I can’t locate that summary paragraph right now.

The website says they are presenting three models:
_____ Polls-plus forecast.... What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8
_____ Polls-only forecast ... What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8
_____ Now-cast .... Who would win the election if it were held today

The website also includes articles about the Senate race, baseball and NFL, as well as the presidential race. I find it useful for a quick current snapshot.

[Ellen Z]

Re: Trump to win?

Justin Levitt (Loyola Law School) finds 31 cases of voter impersonation in one billion votes cast between 2000 and 2016. Meanwhile....

+1

[shiny!]

Re: Trump to win?

Why is it that I, a natural-born American citizen who speaks English such that no one can know my ethnicity just from hearing my voice, must present two forms of identification (two of: birth certificate, driver's license, U.S. passport) to prove that I am legally allowed to work in the U.S. when I join a company?

Is it because I unknowingly am being discriminated against and that the corporations I have worked for are trying to trip me up so they can hire someone else? If so, please provide me with good evidence and the contact information of a good lawyer.

The company that I work for uses a national payroll service to manage employee hiring and paychecks. All prospective new hires, regardless of race, are required to show two forms of ID to prove eligibility to work. It has to do with the fact that companies can find themselves in big trouble for hiring illegals.

EDIT: The way we do it is, if we like a person for a job we ask them for ID so as to run a criminal background check. If that pans out, then the payroll service takes over. They require two forms of ID to pass the "legal to hire" requirement, have the person fill out forms for withholding, simple IRA contributions, direct deposit, etc... The payroll service never even sees the new hire.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Trump to win?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...5bc_story.html

Yeah, it's from the Post, so obviously bogus.

I am willing to give the Washington Post the benefit of the doubt in this case because it doesn't really matter. For the sake of argument, I will agree that North Carolina's legislators are a bunch of secret Klansmen who want to make it such that only white people can vote.

I fully agree that to require voter registration cards with photographs on them shortly before an election is a way of preventing certain people from voting. That's not fair and that should not be allowed.

But why is it that no state can ever, even during periods of time where there will be no elections for many months, require that people who want to vote register themselves for a vote ID with which it is much more difficult to perpetrate voting fraud? Why is it that only the U.S., which has a problem with parasitic illegal aliens, cannot require a form of registration card that nearly every other country has, including the countries from which these illegal aliens come from?

Why is it that I, a natural-born American citizen who speaks English such that no one can know my ethnicity just from hearing my voice, must present two forms of identification (two of: birth certificate, driver's license, U.S. passport) to prove that I am legally allowed to work in the U.S. when I join a company?

Is it because I unknowingly am being discriminated against and that the corporations I have worked for are trying to trip me up so they can hire someone else? If so, please provide me with good evidence and the contact information of a good lawyer.

[lektrode]

Re: Trump to win?

Santa Fe has been drinking the Hillary kool aid far too long. Woodsman is right! ...

i now realize that.

altho it took me a while to understand where woody is coming from - and cant say that i agree with everything he's shared with us the past few years - but there's no doubt in my mind anymore that he's been consistently right on the money with most of his POV.

my observations of the 'i'm with her' crowd is they are either clueless/brainwashed by the media-entertainment industrial complex, indoctrinated via the .edu industrial complex, beholden to or EMPLOYED by the social-welfare industrial complex, bought-off and OWNED by the financial-fraud industrial complex, or merely just benefiting, if not EMPLOYED directly by the propaganda-driven demorat-infested political WAR PARTY industrial complex - if not all of the above - since its that crowd in particular who seem the most enamored by the obozo-hillbilly show.

and i wont even get into the .mil industrial complex, which that link from woody above, to the huffpo/sachs piece points out very clearly why the obama-hillbilly show is OWNED by them, as well, as it clearly benefits their major campaign contributors from financial fraud-industrial complex, so its a 'win+win' for all.

except for The Rest of US.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Trump to win?

http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/can...sian-info-ops/

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell was curt to his former aide. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump “is a national disgrace and an international pariah,” he wrote. In the leaked email, Powell, whose public persona is dignified and deeply appealing to both political parties, comes across as frustrated and upset by the 2016 presidential election. “I would rather not have to vote for her,” he wrote elsewhere, referring to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, describing her as having “a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational.”
It was the sort of juicy gossip political reporters just cannot ignore, and they predictably ran stories detailing who got burned and who got shade from the famously dignified and respectful Powell. Yet this email leak was the latest vanguard of what has become a sustained campaign of cyber operations by the Russian government, seemingly geared to manipulate the election. By aggressively hacking into email accounts and then selectively leaking documents meant to embarrass Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party, Moscow is combining two different strains of security threats in a way no one is sure how to counter. Combining a traditional form of cyber operation (the actual email hacks) with targeted releases to affect a political outcome (information warfare), the Russian government has innovated a type of cyberwarfare that is catching both the media and policymakers off guard.
The Powell emails have been linked to a hacking group called Fancy Bear, and they have been behind some of this year’s biggest cyber operations on the United States. It is the same group that hacked into the Democratic National Committee and released emails in an effort to embarrass Hillary Clinton and hurt her campaign for the presidency. They hacked into the World Anti-Doping Agency in an effort to embarrass Venus and Serena Williams over exemptions they claimed for taking prohibited drugs during the Olympics. They leaked emails by former Supreme Allied Commander-Europe, Gen. Philip Breedlove to undermine U.S. policies in Europe. And now they’ve been linked to the Powell email leaks as well.
As cybersecurity firm ThreatConnect has documented meticulously, Fancy Bear is at the heart of a network of websites backed by the Russian state, most likely a military intelligence unit, and is engaged in a sustained information operations campaign. One of those related websites, called DC Leaks, which has also been linked to Russian intelligence, recently released Michelle Obama’s passport alongside sensitive travel information for the White House. This is happening in an election year.
To put it as bluntly as possible: Russian intelligence is breaking into senior officials’ computers in an effort to manipulate a U.S. presidential election.
Yet, the response from the White House has been muted. One reason might be that the U.S. government is still unsure how to respond. I reached out to a half-dozen current and former officials responsible for both public diplomacy and cyber security. None of them expressed confidence in which agency should take the lead in responding to a massive effort to leak private correspondence heavily weighted toward one party in an election. There’s never been an attack on the process of an American election like this, and given its openly partisan nature (the leaks seem to primarily target Democrats) many officials are reluctant to be seen engaging in partisan activity by pushing back too hard against the Kremlin. Complicating matters is the casual attitude Donald Trump has taken toward the leaks, at one point flat-out asking Russia to do more hacking against Democrats (one of Trump’s foreign policy advisers just came under investigation for his alleged backdoor negotiations with Russian officials).
But it goes deeper than that too: This isn’t the sort of “cyberwar” we were promised. When scholars and pundits talk about this set of threats, they are thinking of things like Stuxnet: sophisticated programs meant to destroy or disrupt infrastructure. From former White House officials to journalists, even to academics trying to debunk the worst of the fear mongering, the overwhelming focus is on tangible targets: the power grid, banking institutions, military installations, even voting machines. The idea of targeting one party and selectively leaking embarrassing emails just wasn’t on anyone’s radar. In hindsight, maybe it should have been.

-----

Excellent article from War on the Rocks, the rest of it can be found at the link.

Measuring the impact of both foreign and domestic actors in "prison rules" politics is not easy.

But effects are much easier to measure as politics is a simple binary win/lose come election time.

While it's not likely each of these actions will "move the needle", in aggregate the potential to move the needle is real and it may not require a lot of movement to have a considerable effect.

Where once there were(still are) paid supporters/protestors...we now have Twitterbot armies.

The Signal to Noise ratio is shifting decidedly towards noise.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump to win?

People are tired of cheating at the polls to throw elections. We need an ID for every phase of life and voting is no exception.

Justin Levitt (Loyola Law School) finds 31 cases of voter impersonation in one billion votes cast between 2000 and 2016. Meanwhile....

"Claudell Boyd, a 62-year-old African-American man, moved to Wisconsin last year to escape the violence in Chicago. But because the first name on his birth certificate was spelled Clardell—the result of a mistake caused his mother’s cursive handwriting—the Wisconsin ID he was issued also says Clardell. He made two trips to the DMV to try to fix his Wisconsin ID, bringing his Illinois state ID, Social Security card, and marriage certificate with the proper spelling of his name, but the DMV said he had to go back to Illinois to correct his birth certificate. He was not offered a certificate for voting or enrolled in the IDPP. They said he either needed to change his name or his birth certificate."

The only voter fraud is voter fraud laws.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump to win?

Don't you get it? It's racist to require documentation that one is legally allowed to vote in the U.S.A.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...5bc_story.html

Yeah, it's from the Post, so obviously bogus.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump to win?

Where are you getting your information? From Democrat disinformation?

Here is the actual 2013 rules. All you need is any of two forms of ID.

https://www.ncdot.gov/download/dmv/D...er_id_list.pdf

There are a number of different acceptable records to get an ID. What's the problem with a certified copy of birth certificate; it's necessary to prevent fraud.

http://nc-democracy.org/downloads/Ne...aryAug2013.pdf

People are tired of cheating at the polls to throw elections. We need an ID for every phase of life and voting is no exception.

That's the same list I was looking at. Reread it and imagine getting those things. In the past when applying for jobs overseas, I've had to produce many of them and quite a few take take months and bucks to obtain. Notice, student ID's aren't on the list. Numbers 5-12 are almost completely non-starters for most people.

Lawmakers' emails show the list was concocted based on what groups could or could not produce these documents. That is why the courts rule against them over and over.