Trump to win?

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

Shhh, please. Watching The Donald.

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

IMG954430.jpg

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

i'd still like your thoughts on the demographic alliances and conflicts. i think those are the real elements of any realignment. either subgroups as we currently conceptualize them are rearranged, or the electorate is divided along some different lines entirely.

as i said, the democratic coalition looks relatively stable at this time.

but just spitballing ideas, you could have the country club republicans give up on social conservatism, and align their economic interests with those of the professional classes. but then i don't see the non-college whites aligning with blacks and hispanics, so that won't work unless the minorities stay with the democrats. actually, this is kind of what's been happening, with all the neocons and other republican apparatchiks endorsing hillary. i don't see the koch brothers getting on board, however.

how do you imagine the populace being redivided?

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

and from a chat about the conflicts within the republican party:

... Is this what it looks like when a party falls apart?

natesilver: It’s just a flesh wound!

Funny. They think's it's just one party falling apart instead of an entire polity.

MAGA! GO TRUMP! JAIL HILLARY! GO TRUMP! MAGA!

MAGA! GO TRUMP! JAIL HILLARY! GO TRUMP! MAGA!

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

and from a chat about the conflicts within the republican party:

... Is this what it looks like when a party falls apart?

natesilver: It’s just a flesh wound!

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

on the unprecedented gender gap, from fivethirtyeight

Women Are Defeating Donald Trump

i am by no means confidant about the polling data. brexit and the columbia-farc votes were contrary to the polls, and there have been other surprises like the strong performance of afd in regional german elections. i also periodically remind myself of the fact that african-american candidates typically get 5% fewer votes than their polls predict. in a similar way i could see trump getting 5% more than his poll numbers, and that is precisely the deficit he shows in the polls right now.

i will by no means be thrilled to see hillary win. she will continue all that is odious in the status quo. but i don't think she is dangerous in the ways i think trump could be.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

...i know you opted for political nihilism and hope that both party structures are blown to pieces, but i don't think that's happening, not to BOTH. and in u.s. history, did realignment ever happen simultaneously, with 2 mainstream parties simultaneously morphing into 2 OTHER mainstream parties? i can't recall an instance, but my knowledge of history is shallow.

This season everybody has opted for political nihilism. I'm just more open about it, is all.

Has it ever happened before? I don't know and would doubt it anyway. And sure, it may not happen to both right away or at all. I have no crystal ball. Just an opinion, like you doctor.

Maybe I'm making too much of all those "never happen" events that have been happening with uncanny regularity over the past months months?

Has the media ever before been in perfect coordination with one candidate and in lock-step agreement that the other is a priapic Hitler? Have the Democrats ever before accused the Russians of helping the Republicans?

And when was the last time the White House and security agencies (with the Feebs conspicuously absent when such a thing would otherwise be in their wheelhouse) timed an appearance to allege suspicions that Russia is hacking emails precisely when such damaging emails are being released?

Have we had a chance to read insider emails of the sort now available, emails that confirm prior suspicions of their nefarious behaviors?

The future is emergent and time will tell. We will have to let events take their course.

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

Au contraire mon frère. It may not be as apparent as the GOP's, but you can be absolutely certain that the knives are being sharpened, the recriminations are being formulated and trenches are being dug. The powder keg will explode when the contradictions reach critical mass.k.

instead of looking at the games and conflicts among the party elites, let's look at the demographics with the help of a little caricature:

the gop- the "reagan democrats" and evangelicals [now mostly identified as whites without college educations] used to be coopted by appeals to religion and cultural conservatism. they are now interested in economics and suddenly realize that their interests are not the same as those of the country club republicans, well-off business people who are primarily interested in tax policy along with gov't fund flows.

the dems - the college educated whites/professional class social liberals are still allied with the minorities- african-americans and hispanics. the millennial bernie bros are having a hard time climbing on board, but their social views along with some appeasement re student loans and such should eventually assuage them. the first time i voted, it was for eldridge cleaver.

i know you opted for political nihilism and hope that both party structures are blown to pieces, but i don't think that's happening, not to BOTH. and in u.s. history, did realignment ever happen simultaneously, with 2 mainstream parties simultaneously morphing into 2 OTHER mainstream parties? i can't recall an instance, but my knowledge of history is shallow.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Trump to win?

In case anyone missed it, here is a summary of the debate for dummies.

Thanks for sharing - a throwback to parodies when both sides were skewered equally.

Funny, tasteless, and hits the spot.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

The VERY short "flash to bang" on a recent document/email dump with Wikileaks that included an allegedly falsified email(Russian disinformation operations perhaps to disrupt US election) was VERY quickly flaunted by Trump.

McCarthyite red-baiting baloney and I think you know it is Lake. I'd say shame on you but since you might be acting here in a "professional" capacity I understand that orders are orders.

Nonetheless, you have zero evidence. Total bovine scatalogy spook crap.

“Come January, Democrats will continue to be the dominant political faction in the U.S. — more so than ever — and the tactics they are now embracing will endure past the election, making them worthy of scrutiny. Those tactics now most prominently include dismissing away any facts or documents that reflect negatively on their leaders as fake, and strongly insinuating that anyone who questions or opposes those leaders is a stooge or agent of the Kremlin, tasked with a subversive and dangerously un-American mission on behalf of hostile actors in Moscow”

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/11/...s-putin-plots/

Boris Badenov and Natasha are more convincing, but hardly more laugh out loud funny than this Russian plot bull. Folks need to read this one again to inoculate themselves from this spy vs. spy nonsense. This isn't Italy 1948 and there's no Red Menace to scare Americans into submission. Y'all are going to have to come up with a new script.

[Jam]

Re: Trump to win?

In case anyone missed it, here is a summary of the debate for dummies.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Trump to win?

The VERY short "flash to bang" on a recent document/email dump with Wikileaks that included an allegedly falsified email(Russian disinformation operations perhaps to disrupt US election) was VERY quickly flaunted by Trump.

I know we live in an instantaneous information age, but the needle(potentially artificial)/haystack really comes to mind with this.

I would be quite interested to see the OODA(Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) chain within the Trump campaign on this particular occasion.

It certainly raises the distinct possibility of the Trump campaign sitting on a continuum with collusion with Russian disinformation/disruption operations on one end and being a naive patsy on the other end.

Very strange.

The Gary Johnson campaign video is a ray of sunshine in entertainment, honesty, and innovation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLAh3pui-CI

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Asia? Well parts of it will do well.

But remember Japan and Russia are demographically deceased and China has worse demographics than the U.S. by far. India is the future of Asia and southeast will do well.

The U.S. will continue to do fine for the next 30 years as fortress America and technology keep the economy afloat and positive demographics speed up growth.

[touchring]

Re: Trump to win?

Should by miracle Trump overcome the media, the DNC, the RNC, and in effect the rest of the world, and wins decisively, well then it's on like Donkey Kong!

And the media. Credibility 100% gone regardless of the outcome. No Truth in Pravda and No News in Izvestia now until the unforeseeable future, I think.

The likelihood of him winning is not good. Nothing is going to change, America will continue her path towards third world status by 2036, a journey that started almost 20 years ago. But judging from how he is faring, even if he wins, he might not be able to fight the system.

The world economy will be affected temporarily as the US is a major part of the world economy, but as Asia catches up, particularly so with East Asia, the world will return to the time of Christopher Columbus.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

...the democrats are not disrupted yet, and it's unclear whether even defeat in november would change that party much. of course if hrc loses the dems need to move on to a new generation of candidates, and those are mighty thin on the ground.

Au contraire mon frère. It may not be as apparent as the GOP's, but you can be absolutely certain that the knives are being sharpened, the recriminations are being formulated and trenches are being dug. The powder keg will explode when the contradictions reach critical mass.

Were it not for the 100% lock step coordination between the DNC, the Clinton campaign and the major media, never mind the increasingly obvious footprints of the cloak and dagger boys turning their skills on the folks here in the homeland, you would have more stories to this effect.

Every day that goes by we see more and more Wikileaks reveals of the skulduggery and dirty dealing on Bernie - who just happens to be the most popular Democrat and (depending on the poll) politician in America at the moment. Each passing day gives his partisans and supporters time to digest how they were robbed. Check this little nugget:

@rweingarten calling the National Nurses Union "sanctimonious" for endorsing Bernie. Plans to "go after them." #PodestaEmails #podesta2

If the collusion among establishment elites and institutions drags HRC across the finish, she begins paying back all the favors and granting all the expected patronage and sweetheart deals the afternoon of Inauguration Day. And then the fissures begin erupting once the public promises to the hoi polloi are jettisoned and her "private positions" become policy.

Should by miracle Trump overcome the media, the DNC, the RNC, and in effect the rest of the world, and wins decisively, well then it's on like Donkey Kong!

And the media. Credibility 100% gone regardless of the outcome. No Truth in Pravda and No News in Izvestia now until the unforeseeable future, I think.