Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Swenlin on US$

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2007/0518.html or http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...70518_usd.html

5/18/07 DOLLAR TRYING TO TURN UP

The U.S. Dollar is trying to turn up for the fourth time since it topped in 2004, but this bottom looks more promising than the prior three. While the long-term trend is down, this bottom is the third confirmation of the descending wedge formation, a technical configuration which normally resolves to the up side. This wedge is also a long-term formation, so the direction of a breakout has long-term implications.

In the short-term we have a PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) buy signal, generated when the PMO crosses up through its 10-EMA. Also, the price index has broken above the short-term declining trend line. Medium-term we have a positive divergence as the PMO has been making higher highs corresponding to lower price lows.

On the long-term chart below we can see other positive signs. Most important is the long-term support zone between 78 and 80. There is no guarantee that the support will hold, but we have to view it as being in the plus column. Assuming that the support does hold, the bottom that will result will form a double bottom that spans over two years. Like the wedge formation, this will have very positive long-term implications.

Bottom Line: Let there be no doubt, the trend is down in both the medium- and long-term (our trend model is still bearish on the dollar), and it is too early to assume that a change in trend is taking place; however, there are plenty of reasons to begin nursing some positive expectations.

The COT info is good one

thanks, Jim.

[grapejelly]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Richard Russell

One thing that has struck me about Russell's change of opinion is that it could represent capitulation of perhaps one of the biggest bears who still stood, or he could be on the money in pointing out why he has been wrong and what may likely be in the offing.

To me his sentiments are not incongruous with EJ's Ka-Poom.

What could lead to the possible correction later this year? Russell speculates that it could be a "blood-curdling" correction in the Shanghai market and other Asian markets, which he thinks would affect all the world's markets.

Steve Saville in his fantastic letter this past week wrote about Russell and said that Russell is misinterpreting what is really dollar depreciation for something more significant. He pointed out that in an extreme case, Zimbabwe, the market will be making new highs every hour practically, but of course in nominal terms only.

Makes sense to me. There is a terrific amount of money coming into existence and this is finding its way to the US stock market. Perhaps Dow analysis doesn't work anymore...how could it in light of M3 expanding 10% - 12% annually?

[flow5]

Re: Bullish Information

Prechter couldn't even get his 800 number right. His prolific turn calling eventually results in a correct call, but in the interim you can lose your shirt.

Gold's going to resume an accelerated climb for the same reasons it did in the last run-up - falling interest rates from a softening economy; followed by a change in monetary policy towards greater ease or less restraint, coupled with a falling dollar. It's not far away.


And Bernake's goldilocks landing is still in place.

St Louis
Series: DTB3, 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate
Series: WRMORTG, 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Series: DAAA, Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield

Daily Treasury Bill Rates http://www.treasury.gov/offices/dome...ll_rates.shtml

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Richard Russell

5/14/07 Last week Russell said he was wrong that the DJI had been in a bear market since the 2000 top. Today he writes about something he calls the "50% principle." "The 50% Principle states that following an extended rise in the Dow, if a following decline retains at least half of the Dow's preceding gains, the primary trend is taken to remain bullish. I want to emphasize that the advance must be extended in both duration and extent. The 50% Principle cannot be applied to advances of a few months or so."

The DJI did not correct 50% or more of its move from its 1980 lows, and because it didn't correct that much, the primary trend since 1980 remains bullish. He also adds that the lows in 10/02 did not reach valuations seen at true bear market bottoms.

He also points out that, "The investing public is now skeptical to actually go bearish. Millions of investors are still locked into losses on houses or condo which they bought over recent years. At the same time, Americans are being bombarded with negative news on housing, medical, college tuition, gas prices, rising taxes, cost-of-living expenses, the war in Iraq, the Iranian nuclear situation, and massive government deficits. I believe a stock market decline this year would serve to turn the investing public from sceptical and worried to stone-bearish. That could create an extraordinary buying opportunity in an ongoing bull market."

"Older subscribers who have lived through other bull markets know that the "difficult part" of a bull market is making it through the first and second phases. When the all-out speculative third phase arrives, more money is made than was made during the first and second phases of the bull market taken together."

"Any correction from here will turn them even more sceptical and very probably stone-bearish. Against that background, I believe that the final full expression of this bull market lies ahead. At that time we should see excitement and speculation beyond anything we've seen before. Maybe the current explosive action on the Shanghai exchange is simply a preview of what I see coming up once the US investing public turns bullish. Exciting times do, indeed, lie ahead."

He asks if the Dow has been rising as it has in face of apathy of the investing public, what might happen if the public investors really turn bullish? He says hold onto your stocks and look for a terrific buying opportunity that he thinks may arrive between now and the 4th quarter this year.

One thing that has struck me about Russell's change of opinion is that it could represent capitulation of perhaps one of the biggest bears who still stood, or he could be on the money in pointing out why he has been wrong and what may likely be in the offing.

To me his sentiments are not incongruous with EJ's Ka-Poom.

What could lead to the possible correction later this year? Russell speculates that it could be a "blood-curdling" correction in the Shanghai market and other Asian markets, which he thinks would affect all the world's markets.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. US$

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday 05/10/07 http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

OTHER MARKETS We are on a buy for bonds as of April 16.

We are moving to a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of today May 10.

We are moving back to a sell for gold as of today May 10.

We are on a sell signal for crude as of April 19.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. US$ Index, US Markets, gold.

James West http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/ who follows commitment of traders data has not updated his blog comments since 4/3/07, but he continues to send those signed up emails each week saying he has updated the charts at the above link. He makes some comments in his email notification. If one looks at the charts, note that he has not been updating the 3-year charts.

** The US Dollar has been trying to put in a bottom over the last week or so. Meanwhile net-commercial position continues to increase which is very bullish for this market. Short-term resistance is around 82 - 82.5.

** The stock market from a COT perspective continues to look bullish.
The S&P 500 is the most bullish index, as net-commercial position
increased while the market rallied from the March lows. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq-100 also look relatively good, as commercial selling has
been marginal during the most recent rally. The Russell 2000 is much
more bearish than the other indexes in terms of its COT chart as well
as its price chart. Notice that as commercials are selling into the
current rally, the index is also having a hard time to decisively clear
resistance at around 830. We may clear this level next week, who
knows, but until then this divergence is worth paying close attention to.

** The VIX continues to consolidate, more or less, keep in mind that there is a gap at around 16-17. I believe this gap will get filled sooner or later, and when/if it does, that would probably coincide with a correction in the stock market. On the same token, I do not see why we cannot see a breakdown on the VIX to the $10 level. At the current time, a breakout
would most probably present a good buying opportunity.

** Crude finally broke down below its triangle formation and also broke
below its channel support. Unless we rally back above $64, this market
is probably headed lower. (A consolidation period is also possible).

** Gold's COT chart at the current time is not painting a very clear picture, at least not to me. The trend however is still intact, as gold bounced off of support @ 670. As long as the current up-trend remains intact, we are headed for a re-test of the 2006 highs. (around 720-730)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Contrarian View

MARK HULBERT
What's the encore?
Commentary: From contrarian view, stock prices will continue rising

4/16/07 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...6F967A05BFB%7D

Fortunately for the bulls, contrarian analysis continues to point to higher stock prices.
.
.
According to contrarian analysis, a major stock market top will occur when the prevailing sentiment is stubborn bullishness. The dead giveaway that this is the dominant mood will be the reactions of short-term market timers in the wake of the first correction off of the market's top: He will refuse to reduce his equity exposure, and may even increase it.

That's what happened at the top of the stock market in March 2000, by the way. And we're not seeing anything like that kind of stubborn bullishness today.

Personally, I closed some +200% positions on NDX, SPX, RUT, & MID yesterday, so that too probably predicts higher equity market prices.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Margin Debt

MARK HULBERT
Investing on the margin
Commentary: Debt levels aren't high enough to trigger bear-market indicator

4/13/07 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...8FDC4F%7D&dist=

Is there any way to resurrect a market-timing indicator from these cross currents? Fosback argued in his book that there was such a way, by comparing a given month's margin debt level with a 12-month moving average. The indicator would be bullish if above the moving average, and bearish otherwise.

Such an indicator does not have a perfect track record, to be sure - though, of course, no indicator does. But Fosback reports that, in 35 years of back testing, the indicator had an "excellent record."

Fosback's back testing didn't include the 2000-2002 bear market, of course. But the indicator acquitted itself creditably then, too. Though it would not have issued a sell signal at the exact top in March 2000, it would have done so by the fall of that year, before the bulk of that bear market's carnage. And the indicator would have gone back on a buy signal by mid 2003, quite early in the bull market that continues to this day.

The bottom line? Margin debt may be higher now than it was in March 2000, but that is more of a good thing than a bad thing. If and when a bear market occurs, confirmation will come when margin debt falls below its 12-month moving average.

We're not anywhere close to that yet.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold

April 16, 2007
Keep Focused
by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7370.htm

HEADED HIGHER
An intermediate rise we call C started on January 5, which means it's been underway for about three months.
C rises tend to be the best, strongest rise in a bull market when gold reaches new bull market highs. Gold is currently at a nine month high and it has a good chance of testing and surpassing the May highs. For now, if gold can rise and stay clearly above $690, then $722 will become an easy target. Gold would be impressive above this level as it would reconfirm that a very strong bull market is underway.

[DemonD]

Re: Bullish Information

I think once the housing numbers start coming out for March, April, and May, that "confidence" will quickly turn into an "OMFG WTH man!" score.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. What's next?

C'mon, it was supposed to be bullish info!

How about this for bullish:
State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), released today the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for March 2007. Global Investor Confidence increased sharply by 10.0 points to 100.6 from February's revised reading of 90.6. Looking regionally, the confidence of North American institutional investors rose strongly from 101.9 to 115.1. The confidence of European investors decreased 5.1 points to 87.4, while the confidence of Asian investors increased slightly from a revised reading of 82.5 to 82.8.

from: http://www.statestreet.com/industry_..._overview.html

One can also use it a contrarian info as the index was high in 2000 and 2001.

f_j,

The bullish bit was the run-up suggested by Jeddeloh for the next two months.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information Re. What's next?

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...cle-outset-box


Barron's 4/2/07 (subscription required]


Bracing for Trouble

Interview With Larry Jeddeloh, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, TIS Group by Sandra Ward

Jeddeloh is expecting a 15-20% decline between May and October.


[emphasis-JN]

C'mon, it was supposed to be bullish info!

How about this for bullish:
State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), released today the results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index® for March 2007. Global Investor Confidence increased sharply by 10.0 points to 100.6 from February's revised reading of 90.6. Looking regionally, the confidence of North American institutional investors rose strongly from 101.9 to 115.1. The confidence of European investors decreased 5.1 points to 87.4, while the confidence of Asian investors increased slightly from a revised reading of 82.5 to 82.8.




from: http://www.statestreet.com/industry_..._overview.html

One can also use it a contrarian info as the index was high in 2000 and 2001.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. What's next?

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...cle-outset-box


Barron's 4/2/07 (subscription required]


Bracing for Trouble

Interview With Larry Jeddeloh, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, TIS Group by Sandra Ward

Jeddeloh is expecting a 15-20% decline between May and October.

Ward: How are you positioning yourself for a decline the likes of which you see coming?


Jeddeloh: In our global-allocation model, we're 35% in stocks, 45% in cash and 20% in bonds. In the next month or two you could see the markets run again to the upside after this last correction. That's the worst thing that can happen because that will suck everybody in. When that happens, we are going to flip our allocation from cash almost entirely into longer bonds, and we'll reduce our equity component to our minimum of 20% and maybe even go a bit lower. If we get the decline I'm describing later in the year, it might be of short duration. There was a big equity shrink last year, and that's a very powerful dynamic. The private-equity guys may come right after some of the names they are looking for and, bang, the market will go right back up and we'll have a pretty good 2008.

[emphasis-JN]

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re: Equity, $,

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2007/0326.html and http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/ This latter link is to West's site.

James West posts COT charts.

RUT, SPX, NDX, DJI are all pointing UP.

US Dollar [ http://www.buythebottom.com/usd.html ]
The US dollars is setup for a rally, and is literally touching strong support at $82.5. If the USD holds above $82.5, then it looks like we will see a leg-up develop from these levels to perhaps challenge resistance at $85.5 – 87.5.