Bullish Information

[GRG55]

Re: Bullish Information

I also find this unbelievable, especially when Abu Dhabi National is buying PrimeWest for C$4 Billion http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jJU&refer=home

Why would an oil producer buy another oil producer if they expect oil prices to halve!?

Anyways, anyone here into Canadian oil trusts?

Taqa is a SWF with a mandate to invest in "energy" which they define in a very broad way (e.g. desalination plants fueled with natural gas would qualify). They paid a pretty hefty price at over $80,000 per producing BOE, so I have to imagine there's a lot of "strategic value" built into the evaluation. Penn West Energy, another large Canadian trust, just acquired another trust for about half that valuation.

What do you want to know about the Canadian trusts?

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Below are good articles from MSN, notice how energy and commodities investing slowly filters to main media. Looks like we will see a major blow up in these areas in the next months or even years, not unlike the emerging markets euphoria in the mid 90's.
http://rurl.org/9ob
http://rurl.org/9oc

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Aden Sisters

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8467.htm

September 21, 2007
This Is It!
by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden

All of the pieces have fallen into place.

Gold was near a 27 year high, oil was at a record high, stocks in the U.S. and globally remained bullish, the currencies were strong and the U.S. dollar was near a record low. The Fed then lowered the Fed Funds and Discount rates by a half percent on Tuesday, which triggered or reinforced strong breakouts in these markets, leaving no question that the major market trends are solid and strong.

The Fed saved the day. A recession is now less likely than it was a month ago, while inflation is indeed more likely. As a result, oil continues its surge and gold broke out strongly to a new bull market high. Stocks are super strong, interest rates are on the decline, the U.S. dollar is at a record low, the Canadian dollar reached a 30 year high, the euro is at another new high, many resource and energy shares are also at new highs, and so are several gold shares. The asset boom continues (see Chart).

Gold: What's Next?

A strong C rise in the gold price is now underway. These are the strongest upmoves within gold's recurring cycle. Plus, the fact that gold has now reached a new bull market high is super bullish for gold, reinforcing that the over six year old bull market is solid and well intact. With gold above its May, 2006 high (which was the last C rise peak), gold is now on its way to test the 1980 peak near $850 as its next upside target. Gold's C rise will remain super strong above $700 basis December.

Gold shares are also shooting up with gold. The XAU index is very strong above 150 and it's now above its May, 06 high near 168.50. It'll be very strong if it can stay above this level.

Gold and oil are in the limelight and they've left the others in the dust. Yet silver, platinum and copper are on the rise and they are firm above $12.70, $1290 and $3.40, respectively, and they have room to rise further.

Our strongest gold and energy shares are at new highs, while most of our natural resource shares are at new highs. This is a time to be buying new positions and holding on to the ones you have. The best is yet to come.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information re. SPX Buy Signal-Swenlin

New Buy Signal 9/21/07 http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...21_newbuy.html
by Carl Swenlin

Ever since the market hit its correction lows in August I have written three articles, each emphasizing that the odds favored a retest of those lows (see Chart Spotlight on our website). As it turns out, we haven't had any decline that I would classify as a retest, and the market has broken out of a triangle formation on high volume. When the breakout happened, it eliminated any reasonable possibility of a retest, in my opinion. Sometimes the low odds take it.

One thing I have been cautioning about is to not get too bearish, because many of our key indicators had remained bullish. Another thing I should mention is that we should never get too invested in a forecast. I have watched as many of my bearish colleagues, after being proven wrong by the market, are still tying to justify their being bearish rather than trying to get aligned with the market. The market will eventually prove them right because, because, because . . . Maybe they will be right sooner than we think, but for now the market looks as if it will be moving higher for a while.

My bullish stance is due to our S&P 500 timing model having switched from neutral to a buy on September 13, three trading days prior to the Fed-induced market breakout. Also, prior to the breakout, about half of the market and sector indexes that we track with our primary timing model were also on buy signals. On the day of the breakout, the other half switched to buy signals.

The chart below shows the two components needed to generate a buy signal -- the Percent Buy Index (PBI) crossed above its 32-EMA, AND the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) was above its 10-EMA. Note that the PBI is only at 59%, but it is trending up, which is most important.


Bottom Line: The long-awaited retest did not materialize, and. in my opinion, the market has begun another leg upward that should challenge and exceed all-time highs for the S&P 500 Index.

[touchring]

Re: Bullish Information

Stocks can go up and down 20% by the week. Real estate can take years to make the same fluctuations stocks do in a month. Only wizards can predict stock trends with pintpoint accuracy, like in 2001, who can predict that year?

My question is: does his real estate will appreciate view still stands, and we are only seeing a temporary correction, or what?

Are you nuts, this is dated 2/2005. His predictions were for year 2005. Most of the facts he put in his "the oil factor" book (published in 2003) turned to be correct, except for some (minority) specific stock tips. I subscribe to his emails and he correctly advised not to sell during the heaviest selling in the mid August. I bought a lot of equity and commodities then and don't regret.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Friendly_Jacek -

You are absolutely correct pointing out S. Leeb advised NOT to sell in the August correction. He does that a lot, keeps a cool head and looks at the sensible pointers while everyone else is panicking. While people like Mish were constructing incredibly sophisticated models for collapse, Leeb was merely pointing out he's never seen a stock market collapse where the small caps did not lead the way down months beforehand.

So simplistic a line of reasoning none of the geniuses would condescend to acknowledge it?

I will note, in case no-one else here has pointed it out meanwhile, that iTulip forecast an all-assets-down KA this summer which has not occurred. Now it appears iTulip is acknowledging POOM is here barely a month later?

What happened to the Ka-Poom thesis, as we've evidently not had a significant Ka at all?

Wait a minute. What about all the faithful here who took the summer 'sell everything' caution literally and actually sold everything? Now we're supposed to pile back into everything because POOM is here? I'm personally down 18K USD for taking that advice in August.

Seems Leeb got this call right and iTulip did not? I've been a Leeb subscriber for five years. This summer I decided to take iTulip's word for it, and not Leebs, after having learned five years ago that Leeb was a voice to be trusted! :rolleyes:

Not by any means saying this community is not brilliant. But where is the acknowledgement of a badly missed call here? If Leeb misses a call he acknowledges it.

Now, Lukester, don't go blaming iTulip for decisions for which you pulled the trigger.

And you should feel a bit less badly about the 18K you don't have, because I happily have it now.

It's possible that the Ka hasn't happened and that Poom is yet to follow, just as it is possible, that none of us will recognize either when or if they happen.

Re: Bullish Information

Friendly_Jacek -

You are absolutely correct pointing out S. Leeb advised NOT to sell in the August correction. He does that a lot, keeps a cool head and looks at the sensible pointers while everyone else is panicking. While people like Mish were constructing incredibly sophisticated models for collapse, Leeb was merely pointing out he's never seen a stock market collapse where the small caps did not lead the way down months beforehand.

So simplistic a line of reasoning none of the geniuses would condescend to acknowledge it?

I will note, in case no-one else here has pointed it out meanwhile, that iTulip forecast an all-assets-down KA this summer which has not occurred. Now it appears iTulip is acknowledging POOM is here barely a month later?

What happened to the Ka-Poom thesis, as we've evidently not had a significant Ka at all?

Wait a minute. What about all the faithful here who took the summer 'sell everything' caution literally and actually sold everything? Now we're supposed to pile back into everything because POOM is here? I'm personally down 18K USD for taking that advice in August.

Seems Leeb got this call right and iTulip did not? I've been a Leeb subscriber for five years. This summer I decided to take iTulip's word for it, and not Leebs, after having learned five years ago that Leeb was a voice to be trusted! :rolleyes:

Not by any means saying this community is not brilliant. But where is the acknowledgement of a badly missed call here? If Leeb misses a call he acknowledges it.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...8349_db006.htm

LOL, Stephen Leeb got this totally off! Anyone knows him, care ask him what he thinks and if his gold and oil projections need revising?

Are you nuts, this is dated 2/2005. His predictions were for year 2005. Most of the facts he put in his "the oil factor" book (published in 2003) turned to be correct, except for some (minority) specific stock tips. I subscribe to his emails and he correctly advised not to sell during the heaviest selling in the mid August. I bought a lot of equity and commodities then and don't regret.

[touchring]

Re: Bullish Information

Q: Do you like homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (TOL ) and D.R. Horton (DHI )? Do you see a housing bubble?
A: I do like them. Though they've had tremendous runs, they're still relatively cheap stocks. My favorite would be TOL, because it's relatively small, yet has a very strong niche in the high-end market, which I think is much less likely to be affected by rising rates than the overall homebuilding market.

And no, I don't see a housing bubble. I think that housing is a massive market. And there are certainly aspects of housing, such as homes in Long Island, New York apartments, and the like, that are certainly bubble-like in their prices. But no, I don't see anything nationwide that looks like a housing bubble. Even in New York, one characteristic of a bubble is missing, in that people are not buying homes or apartments simply to speculate.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...8349_db006.htm

LOL, Stephen Leeb got this totally off! Anyone knows him, care ask him what he thinks and if his gold and oil projections need revising?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

I also find this unbelievable, especially when Abu Dhabi National is buying PrimeWest for C$4 Billion http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jJU&refer=home

Why would an oil producer buy another oil producer if they expect oil prices to halve!?

Anyways, anyone here into Canadian oil trusts?

Probably no one would buy something where they expect price may drop 40-50% unless they are wrong and buy it not expecting price to drop. How many people bought within 5% of 2000 market tops?

I don't know what the price of oil will do.

[touchring]

Re: Bullish Information

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...cle-outset-box
Where Is Oil Headed? A Contrarian Says $45

I also find this unbelievable, especially when Abu Dhabi National is buying PrimeWest for C$4 Billion http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jJU&refer=home

Why would an oil producer buy another oil producer if they expect oil prices to halve!?

Anyways, anyone here into Canadian oil trusts?

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Similar research from S. Leeb:

"We conducted a quick back-of-the-envelop calculation of the Two Tumbles and a Jump indicator using monthly prices on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. A review of the action in stocks in the post WW II period shows that in the six and 12 months following two successive discount rate cuts the S&P 500 gained 7.8 and 17.1 percent, respectively. Adding in dividends would have bolstered these figures. The lone big downdraft following this trigger occurred in 2001, when the S&P surrendered more than 14 percent in the next 12 months.

If the S&P were to manage an increase equal to the historic average, we would be looking at the benchmark (which is now around 1525) heading towards 1800. A similar move would take the Dow Industrials from their current 13,800 to around 16,000.

We wouldn't use the Two Tumbles and a Jump indicator as a sole basis for making investment decisions, but the fireworks we've seen so far this week could just be the start of things to come."

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

I hear you about silver. I unloaded my gold but keep silver.

Regarding the bullish cause now, this is good analysis from http://fintrend.com/ftf/Articles/FED_rate_cuts.asp :
"Since 1970, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 5.5% in the three months after the Fed’s first rate cut. Only twice in the nine instances (22% of the time) since 1970 did stocks lose ground, including an 18% fall after the first cut in 2001. The average gain after the nine cuts since 1970 over the next six months was 12.3% (Source: Barron’s). If we use these nine rate reduction cycles, the odds of a successful outcome over the next three months is roughly 88%."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Silver by Maund

September 19, 2007
Why Silver is Set to GO THROUGH THE ROOF..

Originally published September 7th, 2007
It was somewhat odd that despite the extraordinarily bullish COT profile for silver, as of last weekend, gold took center stage and has soared during this week as predicted, despite its COT profile not being as dramatically bullish as that for silver, but that's fine by us as it has afforded time to get this article up. Of course, the reason for silver's underperformance relative to gold so far this week is not hard to find - silver broke down below important support last month, whereas gold didn't, and now silver is having to battle the resulting negative sentiment and supply overhang.

The plunge last month provided the Commercials with the perfect opportunity to unload their short positions for a fat profit and by the truckload, which as already pointed out in the last Silver Market update, they were doing with a gusto, resulting in by far the lowest Commercial short position for at least a year, and as we shall see in this article, for a much longer period - at least 4 years. In a two week period they reduced their short position by nearly 20,000 contracts, equivalent to 100 million ounces of silver. This sort of indecent scramble for the exits by the Commercials from their short positions can only mean one thing - the price is about to turn and go up - BIG TIME.

Note this was written 12 days ago and silver hasn't moved that much.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Mark Hulbert

9/19/07
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...iteid=nwhnwhnr

MARK HULBERT
Still a lot of doubt
Commentary: Newsletter editors largely skeptical of market rally

Consider the latest reading of the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HSNSI stood at just 17.4%.

That represents just a 3 percentage point increase for the day, which is surprisingly modest, given the 336-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average There is no evidence of any rush to jump on the bullish bandwagon, in other words.

The current HSNSI level is markedly lower than where it stood in mid July, when the stock market made its first assault on the 14,000 level. The HSNSI that month got as high as 50.9%.

To be sure, even that 50.9% level did not represent excessive amounts of bullishness, as I pointed out after the stock market started correcting in late July. This was why contrarians did not believe that the correction was the beginning of a major bear market. See July 25 column

That conviction is held even more strongly today.

In reaction to the bullish conclusions of my contrarian analysis over the last couple of months, many of you have emailed to ask what sentiment would look like if the stock market were at a major top. My response: Not only would the absolute sentiment level be higher than where it is today, but that sentiment level would remain high in the wake of the first correction from that market top.

Consider how newsletter editors reacted in the first few weeks following the March 2000 market top, which came just as the Internet bubble was bursting. At the time, of course, no one new that it was the top of the market. But as we now know, the Nasdaq Composite's all-time high occurred on March 10 of that year, while the broad market hit its high two weeks later, on March 24.

Believe it or not, the average HSNSI level for the month of April 2000 was higher than in March. And, even more incredibly, the average HSNSI level in May was even higher still.

That is a textbook illustration of the stubborn bullishness that is typical at major market tops.

Someday, such stubborn bullishness will become the prevailing mood again. But it is no where close to being an accurate characterization of sentiment conditions today.