Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold

11/30/06
PETER BRIMELOW
Gold is golden
Commentary: Harry Schultz sees $1,500 for yellow metal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...7A9C%7D&siteId=


"Schultz also reports "a well placed Swiss banker" who believes that China will raise its gold reserves in the next year and that "gold will definitely hit $1,500." Schultz comments: "That's close to my July Bloomberg TV interview forecast of $1,600 within 2 years."
And he notes that Freemarket Gold & Money Report's James Turk recently told Barron's that gold would reach $2,000 in six to12 months (and $8,000 later!).
Schultz's conclusion: "Interesting how [all three] have nearly identical forecasts for 2 year timeframe and price.""

According to Brimelow, Schultz in 35-40% in gold and bullion, 20-30% (the Euro seems noticeably absent), 15-20% in Treasury bills, notes, bonds, 15-20% in commodities, and 5-10% in bear stock mutual funds.

[DemonD]

Re: Bullish Information

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/29/mark...ion=2006112916

2007: Bigger is better
T. Rowe Price fund managers like large-cap growth stocks in the U.S. and abroad. Here's why.



selected quotes from the article (emphases added):

Levenson noted that the job market is improving, and if that continues into next year, he said, that could keep the Fed on inflation watch throughout 2007.

The good news though is that a stronger employment picture also means that U.S. consumers are likely to be able to keep spending, despite some concerns about a slowdown in the housing market.

"If you have a modicum of job growth and continued wage growth, then the consumer will be okay and not run away," he said. "But rising unit labor costs is public enemy number one for Ben Bernanke."

This isn't such a welcome development for corporate America though. Unless companies can pass higher labor costs on to consumers, many businesses are likely to see profit margins decline, Levenson said.

So what does that mean for stocks?

Larry Puglia, manager of the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth fund, pointed out that the valuations for the largest 100 stocks are at their lowest levels since 1983 when compared to other large-cap stocks.

And since big caps tend to outperform smaller companies when economic and earnings growth slows, now could be a good time to buy some of the most well-known large cap growth companies. Two that he likes are General Electric (Charts) and Procter & Gamble (Charts).

"Growth has been out of favor for a long time so now could be a buying opportunity," he said. "Large-cap growth could be one of the better performing areas of the market for the next few years."

....

Another T. Rowe Price fund manager said that investors should not limit themselves to domestic stocks.

Raymond Mills, manager of the T. Rowe Price International Growth and Income fund, suggested that investors look to European stocks since many of them will benefit from increased merger and stock buyback activity as well as cheaper valuations than their U.S. counterparts. And Mills, like Puglia, said that growth stocks are starting to look more attractive than value stocks.

The firm's bond expert, Mary Miller, also stressed an international approach. She said that many foreign bonds looked more attractive than U.S. Treasury bonds, since they're tied to stronger currencies than the U.S. dollar and have higher yields.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Bank Credit, Bull into 2007

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2006/1128.html

The Most Important Economic Signal
by Clif Droke
November 28, 2006

"The percentage change spike in the bank credit chart shown above was the largest one since late 2001 when the previous economic recession formally ended. This latest leap in bank credit from a percentage change annualized standpoint is one of the most important charts for providing clues as to what’s ahead for the U.S. economic and financial outlook. The story it tells is an exceedingly bullish one and 2007 should see the positive results from the increasing liquidity. Money supply from many sources is increasing and this lets us know that the economic slowdown – which brought the U.S. to the brink of recession this year – will turn into economic improvement in 2007. It will also help to further stimulate the bull market in stock prices in the months ahead."


" Historically, whenever MER rallies for at least five consecutive months from its most recent correction bottom it means the broad market trend will be up for several more months."

"To reiterate our position, the sectors expected to outperform in the coming 3-6 months include technology in general with semiconductors and nanotechs in particular expecting to experience bull markets. Leadership is likely to shift from the Industrials to the technology sector when the next phase of the bull market gets underway in the weeks ahead. We’ll be reviewing the most attractive technology stocks at the next confirmed buying juncture based on our internal and momentum indicators."

[Finster]

Re: Bullish Information Re. 4 year cycles

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...61117_4yr.html

Carl Swenlin gives his interpretation of the four year cycle, which he thinks was shallow and bottomed in July, much to the chagrin of the bears.

All of the sectors he follows in his note are on "buys." Stocks, gold, and 30-yr. bond are "bullish." The bonar is "bearish." CRB and oil are "neutral."

Swenlin says, "Bottom Line: Many investors are still expecting a major decline later this year, but I think that is unlikely because a new 4-Year Cycle is beginning. Prices should remain in an up trend for several months, if the cycle unfolds in a typical fashion."

It also could be that it has yet to bottom. In 1986 the four-year-cycle low didn't amount to much, either. Remember what happened the next year ...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

During the rather sharp declines in the major indices from early May into June and July, there were a flurry of 9-to-1 volume days on the NYSE that were both negative and positive technical indications of either "panic selling" or "panic buying" as defined by Paul Desmond at Lowry's Report.
If this is at all interesting, one might read the thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=142.

Mark Hulbert wrote an article on 7/4/06 that was in retrospect an equisitely timed comment regarding the possible significance of 9-to-1 up volume days on the NYSE. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...F-F6243258DA5B} [in order to access this link, one needs to copy the full address plus the terminal "}" into the browser].

Hulbert suggested that the positive 9-to1 up volume day in 3/16/2000 was a "false" buy signal. Well it was if one traded the Nasdaq or RUT on the signal, but looking at the SPX, DJI, and NYA one could have made some money over the next 5.5 months with perfect timing!

I put this up because its significance to me is that the last two signals suggest in the least an upward move in the equity markets for perhaps at least six months. Now we are 5.5 months off the first 9-to-1 buy signal using this indicator. One might also consider what Mike Burk's analysis is showing http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=555 post #28.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. 4 year cycles

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...61117_4yr.html

Carl Swenlin gives his interpretation of the four year cycle, which he thinks was shallow and bottomed in July, much to the chagrin of the bears.

All of the sectors he follows in his note are on "buys." Stocks, gold, and 30-yr. bond are "bullish." The bonar is "bearish." CRB and oil are "neutral."

Swenlin says, "Bottom Line: Many investors are still expecting a major decline later this year, but I think that is unlikely because a new 4-Year Cycle is beginning. Prices should remain in an up trend for several months, if the cycle unfolds in a typical fashion."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Bonar

From Barron's online 11/18/06 [subscription required]
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB..._magazine_main

The Buck Takes Wing by Gene Epstein


"All of this suggests that the dollar has strong support to keep it from falling below 80 on the index. But it doesn't necessarily mean it will rise to 90. That scenario keys off an uncanny forecasting model developed by David Ranson of Wainwright & Co. Economics.

Based on Ranson's model, the upward movement in short-term rates over three of the past four years is calling for a better-than 5% appreciation in the dollar against other currencies.

The Wainwright economist has also found that this rather stunning correlation is not affected by what happens to economic growth. So even if, as many expect, the U.S. economy decelerates over the next 12 months, the appreciation in the dollar should still occur."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Uranium

RESOURCE OPPORTUNITIES ARE EXPLODING! by David N. Vaughn Gold Letter, Inc. November 14, 2006

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1114.html

Vaughn is a bit enthusiastic, "Remember that old Waylon Jennings song? “Baby That Dog Won’t Hunt!” Well, friends, let me tell you that this dog will hunt and those investing ASAP in uranium companies are going to make a lot of money. And it is a resource and that is what we are all about, right? Discovering which resource commodity is “hot to trot.”"

This article is super-bullish, like in, he's selling uranium, but the arguments for nuclear power to me are compelling, and I think eventually will provide most of the world's electricity, if there is enough uranium and if there is a world.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold $1,450???

GOLD: PUTTING IT INTO PERSPECTIVE
by George Kleinman
Editor, Commodities Trends
November 13, 2006

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2006/1113.html

Kleinman notes from the late '70's how gold corrected 17% in Oct-Nov 1979 and suggests that the current correction in gold could work out similarly. He's not saying it will, just showing the similarity of then and recently using charts.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

Smart chart, Bart!

I looked at bit deeper from the address you posted, and came up with http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...?url=kitco.com which gives a fair amount of detail of hits at Kitco, and a chart that can show time frames up to 5 years. Its data reflect the price of gold rather much it seems. The Kitco hits appear to be lagging the recent bounce in gold.

Nicely done on the follow up, and now you know one of the reasons why I don't think there's much broad based bullish gold sentiment.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

Here's a key chart that I've been known to use. Its the amount of hits at the kitco.com web site from alexa.com:

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?u=kit...=3&h=400&w=700

Smart chart, Bart!

I looked at bit deeper from the address you posted, and came up with http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...?url=kitco.com which gives a fair amount of detail of hits at Kitco, and a chart that can show time frames up to 5 years. Its data reflect the price of gold rather much it seems. The Kitco hits appear to be lagging the recent bounce in gold.

[bart]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

I was just making an observation. I don't put much stock in the google search, but perhaps it means something.

If something takes gold to $500, I do not know what it would do to the 65 wk moving average. I guess the market price could still stay above it.

I don't have any friends or acquaitances and don't go to gatherings, so I think I am going to email those in my address book and do a survey as jk suggested.

Here's a key chart that I've been known to use. Its the amount of hits at the kitco.com web site from alexa.com:

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?u=kit...=3&h=400&w=700

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

if you google "gold bubble" you'll get around 24,000 hits. feel better?

if you see friends or acquaintances, tell them you're doing a little survey and see how many of them own gold or gold stocks. i'll bet that the answer is "not many."

if you're at a gathering, listen to see if you hear anyone talking about gold. are they still talking about real estate?

i do think that gold could go down as low as 500 along with a big move down in the stock market. "ka." i hope i have the nerve to buy more.

I was just making an observation. I don't put much stock in the google search, but perhaps it means something.

If something takes gold to $500, I do not know what it would do to the 65 wk moving average. I guess the market price could still stay above it.

I don't have any friends or acquaitances and don't go to gatherings, so I think I am going to email those in my address book and do a survey as jk suggested.

[Finster]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

The Aden sisters, Mary Anne and Pamela, are considered by some to be experts on gold and silver.


Their thoughts are at http://www.safehaven.com/article-6303.htm

November 14, 2006
Renewed Rise Has Begun
by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

"The main point is, these metals are strong and they're bullish. Renewed rises are now underway and gold and silver are both set to move higher."

It's difficult for me to run across any comments that are negative on gold and silver right now, and to me that is negative.

I think JK is correct, Jim. Gold and silver were in a bear market for so long that the only people closely following it tend to be the smart money. Sentiment is most effective as a contrary indicator when it is that of the masses. Smart money sentiment relative to dumb money sentiment tends to be an affirmative factor.

[jk]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold and Silver-Aden Sisters

It's difficult for me to run across any comments that are negative on gold and silver right now, and to me that is negative.

if you google "gold bubble" you'll get around 24,000 hits. feel better?

if you see friends or acquaintances, tell them you're doing a little survey and see how many of them own gold or gold stocks. i'll bet that the answer is "not many."

if you're at a gathering, listen to see if you hear anyone talking about gold. are they still talking about real estate?

i do think that gold could go down as low as 500 along with a big move down in the stock market. "ka." i hope i have the nerve to buy more.