Bullish Information

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. US Dollar/bonar

12/2606

West who was last mentioned in post above still sees the COT as bullish.

"The US dollar broke down while being setup for a rally, this was unusual and presented a buying opportunity. The setup continues to point to higher prices for this market."

More is explained at http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=5537#post5537 post #57

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Bonar/dollar

http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/

James West 12/18/06 COT Data.

US Dollar [ http://www.buythebottom.com/usd.html ]
"Net-commercial position increased by 9,094 contracts. This is the kind of commercial buying that I was expecting to see after the dollar broke down, but then again it does not really matter what I was expecting, the point is that commercials are very big buyers of the US dollar…which means that this market is very bullish and setup for a rally. Also, make note that from late October to present-day, net-commercial position increased by 33,978 contracts. This is a very significant bet from the commercial side, and is forecasting higher prices for this market in the not too distant future."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. 3rd-yr. Presidential Cycle

MARSHALL LOEB 12/18/06
A slowdown, but not a meltdown
Commentary: Bouncy third year of the presidential election cycle?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...2A800DCA2F0%7D

"There are factors at work in the stock market beyond mere earnings. S&P's Stovall, for instance, keeps close watch on the third year of a presidential election cycle, such as the year we will encounter in 2007."

"Remarkably, since 1945, there have been 15 such years, and the market has never declined in even one of them (though it came close in 1947, when it was flat). The reason for the rise is that the sitting President wants to put the voters in a happy mood, and so he gets behind legislation that the people really like."

"And in the rare and ripe years when both the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and there was a third year in the presidential election cycle, growth stocks tended to outperform value stocks, and the sectors that performed the best included technology, autos, homebuilding, retailing and industrials."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. ? Top in DJI 13,000 - 13067

December 17, 2006
Here's the Call
by Gary Tanashian http://www.safehaven.com/article-6521.htm

I find this article interesting based on Tanashian using the Gold : Silver Ratio's behavior as an indicator of the DJI's potential direction. He points out a sudden and significant reversal to gold's outperforming silver back in just April of this year that was followed by a 3-week run-up to the DJI top in May, and as he says then "splat" for the next two months for equities. Something similar in GSR reversal happened 12/15/06 in what he called that day's "gore fest in the metals."

Based on analogy to April-May events in the gold:silver ratio and DJI, he says, "A strong case can be made that nominal GLD is headed for support in the 59/60 area which would satisfy the above noted 216/217 area resistance level in the Dow-Gold Ratio at, drum roll please............Dow 13,000! In fact, a 5% rise in the Dow (similar to the one in April/May) immediately following Friday's Gold-Silver Ratio reversal brings us to 13,067. So there you have it. Get your party hats and noise makers ready. I will allow for a week or two after the new year begins and then look for a major correction similar to that of May and June or more likely, a resumption of the secular bear market in gold terms and quite possibly, nominal terms. Meanwhile, I expect the beat to go one. The players will have offloaded to the greedy, inexperienced and simply naive. Wash, rinse, repeat as they say. One final note; I am expecting the precious metals complex to head higher soon after the above noted gyrations take place just as they did in 2001 following the previous major yield curve bottom. Additionally, that "shorting opportunity of a lifetime" that everyone is looking for may be mere weeks away, although that is always risky business.
I am not an investment advisor so by all means fade me at will in favor of more conventional and comfortable views. Also, please review Biiwii.com's terms and conditions located here http://www.biiwii.com/about.htm. This is a "call" the likes of which I have never done and may never again attempt. But it is a sincere effort to portray something that hit me over the head as striking."

If one pays any attention to possible technical targets, this article is worth reading as least to gain some insight as to how various individuals may arrive at conclusions.

Personally I believe when most venture making "calls" they usually turn out wrong, but, of course, at some point someone will in fact make "the call" correctly.

Also, if Tanashian assumptions were to pan out, it could be short-term bearish for gold.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Contrarian analysis-Hulbert

12/15/06

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...5ECA82F0E69%7D

Hulbert, "To be sure, the levels to which the HSNSI and the HNNSI have dropped are not low enough for contrarians to pronounce that a whole new leg of this bull market is about to begin.
But they appear to have fallen enough to give this rally at least a short-term lease on more life."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold, Commod. Oil, non-$

December 14, 2006
Once Again, A Good Year
by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6507.htm

Gold, silver = up

bonar = down

Oil = up

Commodities = up

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. The Economy

December 13, 2006
Why is Everyone So Bearish on Credit Markets, Economy?
by Clif Droke http://www.safehaven.com/article-6497.htm

"Based on the money supply and credit creation data we've talked about in recent newsletters, the economy has already landed and should see a gradual upturn over the next several months. Based on this assessment, the incessant talk among analysts of a "hard landing" versus "soft landing" is moot."

"When analyzing the U.S. economy it really comes down to this: one must always assume that Americans are constantly willing to spend money on consumer discretionary goods, and the only reason they don't always do so is because money supply/credit levels are too low. Period. That's really all you need to know about analyzing U.S. consumer spending habits. The American consumer is an extremely unique creature and unlike consumers of many other countries his first priority is to spend rather than to save. Consumer spending only takes a dive when the Fed severely restricts money supply and bank credit isn't readily available."

"Well it doesn't get any clearer than that from a contrarian standpoint! Indeed, the fact that Dresdner, Morgan Stanley and others have turned bearish on the credit outlook further underscores the upside potential of not only the credit markets (a leading indicator) but also of the U.S. stock market consumer economy in general. It's always good news when the investment banks and leading financial institutions openly announce a bearish outlook on the markets!"

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Nasdaq 100

James West http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/ 12/12/06

"Net-commercial position increased once more, this time by 1,252 contracts. What I find very interesting is that large traders are also big buyers over the last few weeks, which means that small-traders are responsible for all of the selling. This is a bullish setup in contrast to the other indexes."

I continue to find West's comments on COT data interesting. One can subscribe free, and he will email when he updates his charts which is before he posts his comments in his blog which he also notifies by email.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Bonar/dollar

James West http://www.buythebottom.com/blog/ reports on COT data.

12/7/06 Dollar.

"The USD index is setup for a rally as long as commercials remain buyers at this level. With the current commercial setup I do not expect the selling pressure to continue much longer, I would watch for a bottom and a subsequent rally to materialize."

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re: Crash talk is premature.

CRASH TALK IS PREMATURE
Chart Spotlight
by Carl Swenlin
DecisionPoint.com
December 8, 2006

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2006/1208.html

Swenlin, who I think puts forth some nice insights, makes his comments of why the equity markets are not about to crash--this is based on his analysis of techical analyses.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re: Bonar

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6472.htm

12/9/06 When Will the Housing Market Bottom?
by John Mauldin

Below are Mauldin's comments on the bonar.

"The current cover of The Economist highlights the falling dollar. That reminds me of a very bearish cover story by The Economist of December 4, 2004.

What happened after that? The dollar was 8.6% higher six months later. When these trades make the cover of major magazines, and every article in the Financial Times is almost uniformly bearish, it should give you pause. For the dollar to fall even more, there has to be someone on the other side of the trade. And for now, almost everyone is bearish.
It would not surprise me to see the dollar strengthen, or the fall to stop for a period of time before slowly resuming its natural downward course."

[DemonD]

Re: Bullish Information

I've submitted this to the "stupidest reason for a rally" contest; while I tend to be a bit more bullish on US stocks than many people, this guy is a bit off the charts

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/news...FREE&cm_ite=NA

Dow 16,000 in '07

By James Altucher
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/7/2006 10:38 AM EST
Click here for more stories by James Altucher

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been largely pathetic so far this century. The newspapers will mention all-time highs, but it's only part of the story.

The Dow has been mostly propelled by just a handful of stocks, notably Altria (MO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) (up 237% since Jan. 1, 2000) and Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) (up 120% since then).

But most of the Dow components are still in the severe bear market that started in 2000, despite doubling profits across the board, doubling book value, improving margins and a severe decline in interest rates since then. Price-to-earnings ratios have contracted, despite the increasing earnings stability and the decline in long-term interest rates (which historically has a great effect on P/E ratios).

Twenty of the Dow components are down in the 21st century, many of them in bear market territory (declines greater than 20%) that they have yet to come out of. I do not believe this bull market could "get tired," as many pundits say, until these quality companies climb out of the cellar.

Let's take a look at five Dow components and consider the prospect that their shares might finally break out -- that is, catch up to their improving fundamentals -- in 2007.

Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), for instance, has seen a drastic decline despite improving every metric in its business. The company is on the precipice of having a blockbuster year in 2007.

Yet the stock is down 45% since the beginning the 21st century, even as book value has gone from $2.78 in the year ended June 1999 to $3.99 now. Price-to-book has plunged to 5.85 from 16. The P/E ratio has gone from 50 to 20.

The market is giving zero credit for the fact that the only profit centers at Microsoft -- Office and Windows -- are about to have their first major releases of the century.


Microsoft
Source: MSN

Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has increased its book value from $4.88 per share to $6.11 per share, but its P/E ratio has dropped to 17 from 32. Earnings have soared to a record $8.66 billion in 2005 from $1.29 billion in 2001. Net margins slumped to 5% in 2001, but have climbed steadily ever since, hitting 11.6% in 2002, 18.7% 2003, 22% in 2004 and 22.3% in 2005.

Despite all this progress, and the Dow hitting all-time highs, the stock is down over 40% on the century.

Intel
Source: MSN

GE (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has been another great success story -- in terms of the effectiveness of management, if not in terms of the stock price.

GE has increased book value per share to $10.43 in the beginning of 2006 from $4.32 in the beginning of 2000. Net margins are 30% higher, and yet the P/E ratio has slipped to 20 from 36. Apparently the market has no faith that the company can continue to deliver. GE is down 30% since Jan. 1, 2000.

And this is completely, completely ignoring the fact that GE has the best new show on TV in the fall 2006 season, Heroes. It's followed in the 10 p.m. Monday slot by another great show, Studio 60.

General Electric
Source: MSN

Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has come under some heat lately for shelving a potential blockbuster drug, but in general the company has done remarkably well over the past six years and only stands to benefit as the need for health care increases with the aging of the baby boomers.

Net income has jumped to $8 billion in 2005 from $5 billion at the end of the last century. Net current assets have surged to $66 billion from $14 billion in 2000, bringing book value per share to $9 from $2.24. And yet the P/E ratio has contracted to 23 from 50, as the stock has dropped almost 40% since Jan. 1, 2000.

Pfizer
Source: MSN

Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is down 20% on the century -- a century that has, in all other respects, been remarkable: Sales have jumped to $312 billion from $165 billion in the past six years, and net income has soared to $11.2 billion from $6 billion. Book value per share has risen for 10 years running, going from $5.80 in 2000 to $12.77 now. What has WMT done to deserve its P/E ratio contracting from 40 to 17?

Wal-Mart
Source: MSN

Most of these stocks could care less about a weak dollar since they are all expanding their international businesses. All of these companies (Wal-Mart in particular) will experience growth regardless of whether or not there is a recession.

Like all things in the market, I expect the negative trends in these stocks to reverse and that 2007 could be a huge year for the Dow as the P/E ratios of these companies get back in line with the gains at these companies and to the current levels of interest rates. I'm expecting Dow 16,000 by year-end 2007 as a result.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold

Gold and the Intermarket Picture?
by Greg Silberman 12/02/06 http://www.safehaven.com/article-27009.htm

Thinks Dow:Gold ratio will hit 10 by late 2007. Gold @ $1000, DJI @ 10,000.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Equities

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...061201_rr.html

Carl Swelin, decisionpoint.com, continues to opine that the current up-move is not done.

"Bottom Line: The market is overbought as measured by many of our internal indicators, and it should experience a small correction or consolidation, but the Rydex Cash Flow Ratio has not reached a level where we should be concerned about a major top."

Worth reading.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Gold.

I do not spend time looking for bullish or bearish articles on one asset class or another. When I see something that seems interesting, I attempt to bring others' attentions to it for whatever it might be worth to them.

Martin Goldberg often, though not always, writes the Market Wrap Up for financialsense.com on Thursdays. My impression is that he tries to pick timely topics and makes a great effort, I believe, to be objective in whatever he chooses to assess. This week's contribution in an analysis of the $HUI (Goldbugs Index) using Elliot Wave theory--of which I understand little, but always find interesting if whoever writes about it doesn't use too many lines.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

I think this week's article is worth most people's times to read, especially if one wishes to see a nice example of Elliot Wave counting and to gain at least the insight Goldberg has about Elliot Wave. I think also he gives some decent guidance as to what the gold market might do if it continues up and also whether the current run-up might just be a bounce.

As an aside he notes what he thinks of the homebuilders and their run-up since July.