Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

[grapejelly]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

silver was and is NOT a bubble. It is simply a commodity (with some monetary characteristic) that has "gone parabolic" as many commodities do occasionally...and this is a temporary phenomenon. I don't believe silver is toast for all that long...this is NOTHING like a bubble (yet).

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

....it appears that a higher gold price suits the Feds should the gold window need to be reopened to halt a run on the dollar.

That may be the heart of the matter, and the single best reason to hang on to that physical gold.

[EJ]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis called it on April 27

I think that one thing gives me pause in anyone's forecasts is that past history is no guarantee of future performance.

When the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market there was plenty supply available and price was high enough that redemptions glutted the market as well as being cut off at the knees by the FED which killed the silver market momentum and brought the price down.

I would like to note also the recent smaller multiple crashes in all commodities as coincidental to the recent silver margin price hikes might also not be comparable to the Hunt episode or past history.

I don't think the recent silver bubble was analogous to the Hunt Bros. episode.

Currently silver supplies are tight, no new mines etc. and rather than rely on a past pricing model it seems to me a better template would be a peak oil model with future dwindling supply combined with increasing use would be more appropriate. Maybe the same for rare earths as it seems to meet the peak oil preconditions.

In the long run, over the next decade, yes. But this bubble in silver overwhelmed the Peak Cheap Oil Cycle influence on the silver prices.

My thinking going forward that the recent exchange/government response to the parabolic rise in silver might be an indicator as to the future government response to the evil speculators with rising prices in oil, gold and other commodities. Perhaps only allowing liquidation orders and no buy orders? I believe this is what happened to the Hunt Brothers.

That would certainly dampen any market...

This is a persistent concern of mine and one I've raised in response to questions I've received since 2001 about gold confiscation. The modern way of achieving the same goal as confiscation is via taxation. When giving the keynote at the Hard Assets conference in Las Vegas 2007, I noted that mining companies needed to lobby Congress to re-classify gold as a financial asset subject to 15% capital gains taxes rather than as a collectible subject to a 28% tax rate, and think about hiring the same lobbyists as the residential real estate industry that was able to pump up housing prices through a rash of tax subsidies. Conversely, these same lobbies can be used to fight the Feds if they decide that gold prices are too high, creating a special tax class for gold as well as export taxes to restrict capital flight in the event such higher special taxes are passed. I've been pinging my contacts over the years for signs of any movement in this direction and so far I don't see anything. In fact, it appears that a higher gold price suits the Feds should the gold window need to be reopened to halt a run on the dollar.

[Jill Nephew]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis called it on April 27

Currently silver supplies are tight, no new mines etc. and rather than rely on a past pricing model it seems to me a better template would be a peak oil model with future dwindling supply combined with increasing use would be more appropriate. Maybe the same for rare earths as it seems to meet the peak oil preconditions.

I appreciate this perspective, i have heard it from my silver 'true believer' friends about the no new mines, silver is a by-product.

I think the argument comes down to what are the alternatives? It would seem as though if there is a silver shortage it would drive more materials research into competing alloys. Has this avenue been exhausted (meaning that those doing research in the area have effectively given up or discovered a fundamental limiting factor)? Is this a closed field in physics (alloys to match silver's reflectivity and conductivity?) I guess i have the same question for the rare-earth metals. Is there a price where all of a sudden it gets profitable to manufacture alloys instead of dig it out of the ground? It does seem as though expert weigh-in from a well educated material scientist/condensed matter physicists could shed a lot of insight as the arguments seem to hinge on this.

My only insight is my condensed matter physics professor back in the 90's who realized/stumbled on (totally accidental) the fact that doped polymers could conduct as well emit light. This was not theoretically predicted (i don't know if it has even been explained yet why they can do this). If you have a whole bunch of people researching silver alternatives and rare earth alternatives, might there be similar breakthroughs?

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

No, I mean the stock market is closed on Saturday, so owning physical silver allowed me to sell off my holdings on the weekend before silver started tanking on Monday.

smart... i was visiting family over the weekend & didn't see the article until mon. dern.

[tombat1913]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

No, I mean the stock market is closed on Saturday, so owning physical silver allowed me to sell off my holdings on the weekend before silver started tanking on Monday.

[tastymannatees]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

bs... a single & definite 'time to sell now' & 'the price will crash' from ej after 10 yrs of silence = jesse's unactionable & repeated warnings that the price got too high too fast & we'll see a correction some day but don't sell, it'll be a temporary setback? sheesh.

this is like ej's dec. 2007 'time to short stocks... market's gonna fall 40% in 2008' but compressed into 2 weeks. the call let you dodge a 25% loss... if you were listening. if he gets it right in the other direction, the bottom ~20, that's a 2 fer.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis called it on April 27

I think that one thing gives me pause in anyone's forecasts is that past history is no guarantee of future performance.

When the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market there was plenty supply available and price was high enough that redemptions glutted the market as well as being cut off at the knees by the FED which killed the silver market momentum and brought the price down.

I would like to note also the recent smaller multiple crashes in all commodities as coincidental to the recent silver margin price hikes might also not be comparable to the Hunt episode or past history.

Currently silver supplies are tight, no new mines etc. and rather than rely on a past pricing model it seems to me a better template would be a peak oil model with future dwindling supply combined with increasing use would be more appropriate. Maybe the same for rare earths as it seems to meet the peak oil preconditions.

My thinking going forward that the recent exchange/government response to the parabolic rise in silver might be an indicator as to the future government response to the evil speculators with rising prices in oil, gold and other commodities. Perhaps only allowing liquidation orders and no buy orders? I believe this is what happened to the Hunt Brothers.

That would certainly dampen any market...

[goadam1]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I don't think it was a coincidence that there was a major drop in all commodities (silver being the bubbliest) right after the killing of bin laden. The risk premium most of been between 3 and 8 percent to the collective mindset of the market.

[jpatter666]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I just noticed someone mentioned they hold silver via Bullion Vault. Either that's new or I somehow didn't notice when I looked at Bullion Vault quite a while back. So there is a 'third way'...... and that would be my guess as to EJs preference.

It's not new, but definitely in the last six months or so I think. So kinda new... ;-)

[pianodoctor]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I just noticed someone mentioned they hold silver via Bullion Vault. Either that's new or I somehow didn't notice when I looked at Bullion Vault quite a while back. So there is a 'third way'...... and that would be my guess as to EJs preference.

[touchring]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I am totally glad I went physical, I was able ro sell my silver on Saturday at over $47/oz to Northwest Territorial Mint.

Sorry, I'm a bit confused. Do you mean SLV price is not real?

[tombat1913]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I am totally glad I went physical, I was able to sell my silver on Saturday at over $47/oz to Northwest Territorial Mint.

[tombat1913]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

It's him that's trying to make it worth our while as paying subscribers, not the other way around.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

An incredible call. Especially considering there aren't too many "do this now" calls from EJ. I tip my hat to you Mr. Janszen. This will live for as long as the Man of Metal breathes.

That is Friday night funny sir! Well played!

[cjppjc]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

An incredible call. Especially considering there aren't too many "do this now" calls from EJ. I tip my hat to you Mr. Janszen. This will live for as long as the Man of Metal breathes.