Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

[LargoWinch]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

The only people who are never wrong are those who do nothing; and they have nothing to show for being "right".

Well said Raz, and the people who do nothing in our current environment of deep negative interest rates are real loser - no pun intended.

[Raz]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

... think of the shit we'd throw at ej today if he was wrong & silver broke 50 & kept going up... or even if prices only dipped 5%?

good trades have many fathers, bad ones are orphans.

if we want to hear more of these... really... let's try to make it worth his while & not cut him down.

my 2 cents.

Personally, I have great respect for EJ. And much gratitude for his work.
The only poor call I've seen was taking on additional shorts in financial stocks back in March/April of 2009.
Otherwise his calls have been outstanding, to say the least.

Had he been wrong (by $10 or even $20) with his silver call it would take an egotistical asshole to "throw shit at him".
I'd be willing to bet BIG money that the would be dung-throwers never made 90%+ per year for a decade on any investment.

The only people who are never wrong are those who do nothing; and they have nothing to show for being "right".

[photoncounter]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

when did you get into silver? 10 yrs ago?

never trade out?

how many head-fake silver corrections went down since 2001 that blew out the technical traders?

maybe others here sold, but who except ej had the balls to make a 'time to sell' public announcement of the fact on the internet? for the record? in his own name not some anon alias? rep at stake.

think of the shit we'd throw at ej today if he was wrong & silver broke 50 & kept going up... or even if prices only dipped 5%?

good trades have many fathers, bad ones are orphans.

if we want to hear more of these... really... let's try to make it worth his while & not cut him down.

my 2 cents.

+1.

[chr5648]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

when did you get into silver? 10 yrs ago?

never trade out?

how many head-fake silver corrections went down since 2001 that blew out the technical traders?

maybe others here sold, but who except ej had the balls to make a 'time to sell' public announcement of the fact on the internet? for the record? in his own name not some anon alias? rep at stake.

think of the shit we'd throw at ej today if he was wrong & silver broke 50 & kept going up... or even if prices only dipped 5%?

good trades have many fathers, bad ones are orphans.

if we want to hear more of these... really... let's try to make it worth his while & not cut him down.

my 2 cents.

Whats wrong with trading in and out?

Of course he had balls here but, he has a product to sell, and he has done a good job. I don't want to take anything away but, it wasn't JUST ej and itulip members taking profit that caused the market to go down.

[Kadriana]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

i wondered about that too. ej's argued since the fake-o stock cert days to not trade gold/silver... taxes & fees eat up your profits. how far does silver have to fall to justify the cost of getting out & in again? 30%? 40%? to $30 or $35?

This is what I'm wondering too. The reasons to buy silver long term are still there, right? If you get past all the conspiracies, we're still using more than digging up so I would think it has to go up until it doesn't make financial sense to put it in socks and deodorant. I'm not sure what that price would be though.

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I had my take profit orders spread out between $48-$50 Most hit. Price didn't drop magically, it dropped because specs/investors/etc. who knew what they were doing took profit. When there was no one else bidding up the market it dropped, the suckers who didn't take profit lost.

when did you get into silver? 10 yrs ago?

never trade out?

how many head-fake silver corrections went down since 2001 that blew out the technical traders?

maybe others here sold, but who except ej had the balls to make a 'time to sell' public announcement of the fact on the internet? for the record? in his own name not some anon alias? rep at stake.

think of the shit we'd throw at ej today if he was wrong & silver broke 50 & kept going up... or even if prices only dipped 5%?

good trades have many fathers, bad ones are orphans.

if we want to hear more of these... really... let's try to make it worth his while & not cut him down.

my 2 cents.

[Raz]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

You might want to check this out.

I intended to post it last night but couldn't keep my eyes open.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com//goto/..._2011_0503.mp3

Ross Clark is one very smart and talented Canuckian.
I've followed his chart work for years.
When you open the MP3 have the pdfs open so you can follow along.

On Tuesday, April 26th Ross said the best target for the near-term upside in Gold was $1,580.
(It was trading at $1,504 at that time.)

I show the high for the June '11 Comex was $1,577.40.
I guess that's close enough for government work.

PS. Ross remains VERY bullish on Gold, and sees the top coming in less than two years at a price well above $2,000.

[chr5648]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

a single 'sell' call in 10 yrs... day before the mega-est silver price crash ever... & c1ue sez...

I don't know if this was that difficult of a sell call. Market, limit, stop, orders, etc. tend to congregate around previous support/resistance levels, historic price levels, and psychological numbers. $48.70 (hunt brothers 1980's high) was a historic and psychologically significant number, along with $50 being a big psychological area for orders. Even with lax margin requirements, these are historically important price levels.

I had my take profit orders spread out between $48-$50 Most hit. Price didn't drop magically, it dropped because specs/investors/etc. who knew what they were doing took profit. When there was no one else bidding up the market it dropped, the suckers who didn't take profit lost.

Abstract yourself from your investments, maintain emotional distanced, and focus market dynamics -- the price action, the behavior of market participants, the macro environment, and public sentiment."

EJ said it himself.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Based on EJ's call/comments, I sold roughly 2/3 of my silver holdings last week at spot silver between $USD44.5 and $USD48.5.

However, I think it is important to keep things in perspective and understand that silver may never reach $US20/oz again.

YTD as of May 4th/11 - 2:45pm:

Silver - Start $30.63 / Current $39.80: +29.9%

Gold - Start $1,405.5 / Current $1,516.6: +7.9%

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

In all fairness, the fact that margin requirements for silver were just changed probably is responsible for a large part of this big drop in silver prices. Six months from now, silver could be much higher (or much lower). I think it's a bit too soon to be calling this a successful call, from a long term standpoint. Sure, if EJ was advocating short term trading positions, the silver sell call would be a slam dunk.

Don't get me wrong, I have followed you guys for years and years and I think this is one of the best, if not the best sites for rational investment analysis. (I actually have one of those itulip.com stock certificates you guys used to sell if that tells you how long I have been visiting this site.)

i wondered about that too. ej's argued since the fake-o stock cert days to not trade gold/silver... taxes & fees eat up your profits. how far does silver have to fall to justify the cost of getting out & in again? 30%? 40%? to $30 or $35?

[kduffey]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

What an incredibly timed call! Well done.

I look forward to EJ's future thoughts on where to allocate capital preferably for the little guy who doesn't have millions to invest.

[nathanhulick]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

In all fairness, the fact that margin requirements for silver were just changed probably is responsible for a large part of this big drop in silver prices. Six months from now, silver could be much higher (or much lower). I think it's a bit too soon to be calling this a successful call, from a long term standpoint. Sure, if EJ was advocating short term trading positions, the silver sell call would be a slam dunk.

Don't get me wrong, I have followed you guys for years and years and I think this is one of the best, if not the best sites for rational investment analysis. (I actually have one of those itulip.com stock certificates you guys used to sell if that tells you how long I have been visiting this site.)

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I'll be impressed indeed if silver falls to below $20 over the next 6 months...

a single 'sell' call in 10 yrs... day before the mega-est silver price crash ever... & c1ue sez...

[peakishmael]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

We'll use the chart below to either confirm or invalidate EJ's theory that the silver bubble is in collapse mode. It shows the actual silver price in black, a theoretical non-bubble silver price growth rate in green, and my April 29 price crash scenario in red.

There appears to be an error in chartsmanship here (and also in the same chart, posted in the original silver call thread). The x-axis appears to be off a year, as we are in mid-2011, not mid-2010.

5/4 p.m. seems to have been fixed in this thread, but not in the original "sell silver" call thread thread... OK, not a big deal, I'm just nit-picky.

[c1ue]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I'll be impressed indeed if silver falls to below $20 over the next 6 months...