Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

[metalman]

damage report

today: silver off 25% from top & 23% from ej's call.

[j4f2h0]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I love the call, however i have too large a stake in physical silver to sell until the landscape really changes. I used EJ's call as a warning to wait for the weak hands that got in around 30 dollars to be taken out. I have been buying silver hand over fist since 2005, i told myself i would sell when a 10oz bar would pay my mortgage around 2000 a month, or the reasons i bought in were no longer prevalent. Thank you EJ much respect!

[dropthatcash]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump

[EasternBelle]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Originally Posted by metalman
when did you get into silver? 10 yrs ago?

never trade out?

how many head-fake silver corrections went down since 2001 that blew out the technical traders?

maybe others here sold, but who except ej had the balls to make a 'time to sell' public announcement of the fact on the internet? for the record? in his own name not some anon alias? rep at stake.

think of the shit we'd throw at ej today if he was wrong & silver broke 50 & kept going up... or even if prices only dipped 5%?

good trades have many fathers, bad ones are orphans.

if we want to hear more of these... really... let's try to make it worth his while & not cut him down.

my 2 cents.



+2

[jpetr48]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I probably sold 25% of my holdings a little early in January 2011 but from that experience I learned not to touch my core holdings like CEF this go around even when CEF traded like silver on Monday. On a separate note, it is interesting how their SBT.UN silver bullion fund gained 3.42% today after 5% discount to NAV yesterday and has held support three days now. (I do not own)

I agree with all of the reasons to get out for trading purposes. As the long term fundamentals are strong for silver what/when are reasons to get back in? When gold/silver ratio gets back into the mid 40s?

[Spartacus]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

good move ... I sold some, wish I had sold more ; (

Based on EJ's call/comments, I sold roughly 2/3 of my silver holdings last week at spot silver between $USD44.5 and $USD48.5.

However, I think it is important to keep things in perspective and understand that silver may never reach $US20/oz again.

YTD as of May 4th/11 - 2:45pm:

Silver - Start $30.63 / Current $39.80: +29.9%

Gold - Start $1,405.5 / Current $1,516.6: +7.9%

[bart]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Some day you all will understand the mechanism of iTulip's remarkable record.

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
-- Arthur C. Clarke



(Haven't we always been at war with EastAsia? ;-) )

[c1ue]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

a single 'sell' call in 10 yrs... day before the mega-est silver price crash ever... & c1ue sez...

The sell call was great, but then again, EJ was not the only one to point out the bubbly nature of silver as of Friday, April 29, 2011.

Jesse noted this, and I myself dumped a 971 oz Ag bar on 4/22.

In fact, what I was noting was that a fall under $20 is far more actionable than a call that Ag was about to fall - especially given the 4th margin increase by CFTC as well as the unquestionably parabolic nature of the rise.

[FRED]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I know one thing, the powers that be have gotten serious about taking down silver.

Wow, another margin increase. It makes believable all the conspiracy theories about some serious power brokers being on the wrong end of that deal.

In all seriousness, if nothing else the last few years have taught me to what extent the powerful will go to remain so.

Will

Some day you all will undrestand the mechanism of iTulip's remarkable record.

[bart]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

CME silver margin
4/26/11	was 11745
4/27/11	12825
4/28/11
4/29/11	14513
5/2/11	MF Global 25397
5/3/11	16200
5/4/11	18900
5/5/11
5/6/11
5/9/11	21600

[Penguin]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

I know one thing, the powers that be have gotten serious about taking down silver.

Wow, another margin increase. It makes believable all the conspiracy theories about some serious power brokers being on the wrong end of that deal.

In all seriousness, if nothing else the last few years have taught me to what extent the powerful will go to remain so.

Will

[Raz]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Be careful about cherry picking. I remember a call for 20% unemployment and a first bounce is over call that is still a bit early. Nice call on the silver. I sold out of silver on the day after the volume on slv was higher than the volume on spy.

I remember the "First Bounce is Over" (and you're correct - it was definitely early), but EJ has never claimed to be a market timer. (Though Metalman seems to be saying that, even if he times his trades over several years instead of months.) And he didn't call for shorting the stock market at that time, so no one lost any money unless they inferred that he did.

I don't remember the 20% unemployment call, but I would venture to guess
that if we had honest numbers it would be at least 19.0%+.

And though I did pick cotton as a youth, I've never picked a cherry.

[jk]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

rip van winkle investing...



90%/yr for 10 yrs... big reward for snoozing. true buy & hold trade of the decade, not stocks... if you sold last fri.

marc faber likes to talk about a hypothetical once-a-decade trader: he bought gold [abroad] in 1970, sold it dec31, 1979. he then moved all his funds to japanese equities, which he sold dec31, 1989. he then bought american high tech, which he sold dec31, 1999. and then he did something else.

i've always been attracted to that idea, and much of my attraction to itulip is that it follows that kind of model. find the big thing, the big move, and stay with it. jesse livermore said the hardest thing he had to do with investments was sit. "be right, and sit tight."

[goadam1]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Be careful about cherry picking. I remember a call for 20% unemployment and a first bounce is over call that is still a bit early. Nice call on the silver. I sold out of silver on the day after the volume on slv was higher than the volume on spy.

[metalman]

Re: Catch a falling silver knife - Notes on EJ's April 29 silver sell call

Personally, I have great respect for EJ. And much gratitude for his work.
The only poor call I've seen was taking on additional shorts in financial stocks back in March/April of 2009.
Otherwise his calls have been outstanding, to say the least.

Had he been wrong (by $10 or even $20) with his silver call it would take an egotistical asshole to "throw shit at him".
I'd be willing to bet BIG money that the would be dung-throwers never made 90%+ per year for a decade on any investment.

The only people who are never wrong are those who do nothing; and they have nothing to show for being "right".

rip van winkle investing...



90%/yr for 10 yrs... big reward for snoozing. true buy & hold trade of the decade, not stocks... if you sold last fri.