the strong usd

[touchring]

Re: the strong usd

how do you understand the differences between italy and greece. is it just that the virus hasn't really reached greece yet?

It takes time for the virus to spread through the population. Italy might even have gotten it in Dec as there's a large China population in Italy.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

The median age of the population does not appear to be a critical factor. Italy and Greece are about tied in this area yet are 100X different regarding infection rates and over 300X regarding mortality. Germany has dropped morbidity rates by over 3X in 5 days and mortality rates among this very old population are about .5%. There are several critical factors like social and political response but age is not one of them.

how do you understand the differences between italy and greece. is it just that the virus hasn't really reached greece yet?

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

% of cases by age would be more meaningful if we had handy the size of age cohorts in the overall population.
e.g. fertility in italy is very low, so there aren't so many youngsters in the first place.

also, italy has the oldest population in the world. so you'd expect more severity than other populations.

The median age of the population does not appear to be a critical factor. Italy and Greece are about tied in this area yet are 100X different regarding infection rates and over 300X regarding mortality. Germany has dropped morbidity rates by over 3X in 5 days and mortality rates among this very old population are about .5%. There are several critical factors like social and political response but age is not one of them.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

everyone is just waiting for "the bottom" so that they can jump in and buy. as long as everyone is looking for when to buy, we're going lower.

I can't see how there is any way, at this time, of assessing with any confidence the amount of economic damage this is going to cause, the pace of recovery, re-alignments between national/region bloc economies (does Europe ever come back in our lifetime?) and which sectors & companies/& to what degree there may be "bailouts".

All I know for certain is the final result will be somewhere in between the bookends of the apocalyptic doomers and complacent "it's just a flu-bug" cohorts.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

everyone is just waiting for "the bottom" so that they can jump in and buy. as long as everyone is looking for when to buy, we're going lower.

[jpatter666]

Re: the strong usd

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: the strong usd

...Gold exploded higher today. The euro continues to do enormous gyrations that have so far left it right about where it was for the past several years. The DXY is right where it peaked in 2016. This thing has been going on for a month. Stocks, oil and TNX are shocked but this is not what I think of when I think of panic. All I hear is "when can I buy?".

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

Potential cure:

[snip] long quote about quinine cure [/snip]

So there is this guy with long hair who runs a hospital/research lab. He wants to give everybody quinine. The government wants to take a go slow approach and only give it to "critically ill" patents. He is giving it to all of his patients now. Professeur Didier Raoult resigned today from the Scientific Council advising the President ( or kind of sort of resigned but not really).

https://www.nouvelobs.com/coronaviru...tml#xtor=EPR-2

This guy has said something like "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" « la pire maladie du siècle [est] la peur » or words to that effect. He is in the process of publishing a book entitled « Épidémies, vrais dangers et fausses alertes » ( Epidemics, true dangers and false alarms ). He doesn't think the corona virus is much of a threat. He is something of a divisive character in medical circles.

I don't know how on topic this is.


Obligatory on topic thought: Gold exploded higher today. The euro continues to do enormous gyrations that have so far left it right about where it was for the past several years. The DXY is right where it peaked in 2016. This thing has been going on for a month. Stocks, oil and TNX are shocked but this is not what I think of when I think of panic. All I hear is "when can I buy?".

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

re above video:

re italian data
% of cases by age would be more meaningful if we had handy the size of age cohorts in the overall population.
e.g. fertility in italy is very low, so there aren't so many youngsters in the first place.

also, italy has the oldest population in the world. so you'd expect more severity than other populations.
also true cfr must be at least somewhat lower because of the number of people who get ill but are never identified, never tested.
OTOH Chinese data is unreliably low because of people being turned away from hospitals.

bottom line though, the lancet study estimate of 5.7% mortality is quite scary.

Italy is turning people away from the hospital who are older than 60. They don't even look at them.

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

re above video:

re italian data
% of cases by age would be more meaningful if we had handy the size of age cohorts in the overall population.
e.g. fertility in italy is very low, so there aren't so many youngsters in the first place.

also, italy has the oldest population in the world. so you'd expect more severity than other populations.
also true cfr must be at least somewhat lower because of the number of people who get ill but are never identified, never tested.
otoh chinese data is unreliably low because of people being turned away from hospitals.

bottom line though, the lancet study estimate of 5.7% mortality is quite scary.

[jpatter666]

Re: the strong usd

Still heavily skewed to the elderly and the ill. I don't see a lot of children succumbing to this thing, and even though the schools are closing there's no reason to believe their infection rates are less than the population as a whole.

And apparently a large number of people get this, barely show any symptoms and are thus not known. So I'd call it 5% death rate for verified infection group. True rate is still an unknown and of course there will be some deaths that were believed to be something else but will turn out to be CV.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

Death rate now estimated at 5% of infected.

Still heavily skewed to the elderly and the ill. I don't see a lot of children succumbing to this thing, and even though the schools are closing there's no reason to believe their infection rates are less than the population as a whole.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

Death rate now estimated at 5% of infected.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

Death rate now estimated at 5% of infected.