the strong usd

[Woodsman]

Re: the strong usd

We don't agree on 99% of issues. I get that. Please don't use your intellect to focus on one of the least important areas of my post and parse a phase that I would obviously rebut in less troubling times. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that this is the wrong time for us to go to battle over semantics. Maybe next year...

Semantics? Okay, so how many milligrams of cow dung does it take to ruin a perfectly good milk shake? If a lovely bowl of jelly beans has a single cyanide-laced candy, do we still eat? So maybe semantics are important, maybe they're not?

You know, some of us can count too. And some of us can read and reflect on recent history. We can make comparisons and draw inferences. And a special few of us might have personal experience, too. Like say in ministries and agencies. Like say with previous influenza outbreaks and the response. Like say with the last "big one." Remember that one? H1N1 in 2009-2010? CDC estimated 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States alone for that one. Globally, they estimate 575,400 people worldwide died from H1N1 infection during the first year the virus. And people are still falling ill and dying from it today, only now it's just another garden variety annual flu. Thankfully, we have vaccine, although it came too late to save most people - youngsters, primarily, as a large share of the old folks had antibodies present - we lost that year.

Thing is, it was bad. It ran like wildfire and things were touch and go for a while. But the blame for it or the less than ideal initial response wasn't put on Barack Obama's feet. And he didn't seem to prioritize it particularly higher than his initial push for Obamacare and I recall the face of public health was Anne Schuchat, which if you knew anything about her, should have been a comfort. Only we didn't see but a few minutes of her in any given week during the year-long course of that pandemic. We also didn't shut down the global economy, force the country into their homes, and use that to justify a multi-trillion dollar wealth transfer (having just done a smallish one a few months prior). We didn't have a media running 24/7 scare stories, calling Obama a killer with blood on his hands, and counting every death with barely concealed glee.

So there's a difference here. Surely, a difference in the bug, but the real kicker is the response. Two bad and novel bugs with the potential to take out millions. Two vastly different responses. Is there any wonder why, given a climate of unprecedented political hostility and subterfuge against a duly elected leader, some people might raise a question or two as to what exactly is going on? And might one imagine that, having been immediately pig-piled upon by the usual suspects for the temerity of asking questions, having been subjected yet again to the same dismissive ad-hominem attacks they've come to know and expect, that their suspicions that things may not be as they seem might be heightened even more? I think about these things and ask questions. I'm not alone, but there seems to be a cohort at play determined to make us pay a price. And it's the same people who have been at it for the past three years. Curious, no?

Pleased to know your genuine concern about the progress of the struggle in Florida, but I hang my hat elsewhere and was only a snowbird. I sold the beach house last year and haven't been back since. As I recall, South Florida has been Queens South since I can remember. Always more New Yorkers about than I cared for, but I'm curmudgeonly that way.

[bpr]

Re: the strong usd

At this point it looks like 15-30,000 dead in the US.

Total? We're already over 5,000, so if you're saying that in all likelihood the US death toll will be <30,000 at the end of this then we're much farther along than most of us anticipate us being.

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

That's a lie. Here are Trump’s exact words on the topic at the February 28th South Carolina rally:

No where in the passage above does Trump say that the virus itself was a hoax. He said that Democrats’ criticism of his administration’s response to it was a hoax.

We don't agree on 99% of issues. I get that. Please don't use your intellect to focus on one of the least important areas of my post and parse a phase that I would obviously rebut in less troubling times. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that this is the wrong time for us to go to battle over semantics. Maybe next year.

And I'm not trying to beat up Peakishmael, but we have to work within a realistic framework and adjust as the data directs. Over the last few months I've spent almost every waking hour working with colleagues to analyze coronavirus spread. We're just a bunch of wonks and geeks trying to quantify where outbreaks will occur. And until it moved into Europe no one in the US had anything close to a proper social or political model to overlay. I'm not complaining. The docs and everyone who works with them in this fight are on the front lines, risking their health to save lives. All I do is look at numbers and offer ideas about direction. It's almost nothing compared to the grocery store clerk willing to show up in person every day so we can buy food.

Let's fight another day, just not now as I'd like to post here but I don't have the time or energy to work through a trivial issue.

On a more positive note, I spoke to your Department of Health today. There was a story this morning that "Florida is the next New York". I know from the daily stats that this is complete BS and wanted to follow-up with folks on the front line to understand the level of per capita testing to make sure my numbers aligned with theirs, (levels of testing can be the wild card). While not in the top few states, it's reasonable and people on the Florida CV hotline are very well informed. Your governor has been walking a fine line between saving lives and pleasing the ego-in-chief. I think given the vice he's in, he's done well and Florida testing should increase over the next few weeks.

When this is over there will be no winners, just lessons learned and new policies to ensure we're not playing defense quite as much in the future as we are today.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

russia sends 60 tons of medical aid to the u.s.

https://reut.rs/2Jy0PNO

my, how the mighty have fallen.

[Woodsman]

Re: the strong usd

..."It's a democratic hoax" to 200,000 dead? If you support one, please support both.

That's a lie. Here are Trump’s exact words on the topic at the February 28th South Carolina rally:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. You know that, right? Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa, they can’t even count. No they can’t. They can’t count their votes.

One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We’re 15 people [cases of coronavirus infection] in this massive country. And because of the fact that we went early, we went early, we could have had a lot more than that."

No where in the passage above does Trump say that the virus itself was a hoax. He said that Democrats’ criticism of his administration’s response to it was a hoax.

It's baffling why some people lie when a 30 second Google search outs the lie? I thought the disloyal opposition was supposed to be the smart party. Why such trouble with basic reading comprehension? Such a curious way to live.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: the strong usd

Double post

[lakedaemonian]

Re: the strong usd

lets not forget the many health workers- doctors, nurses, aides - who are themselves getting sick, and how many of them are dying.

Absolutely.

Millions.

And that further amplified my point.

The confluence of events and balance of factors at play would act as a significant tailwind rather than a headwind to expedited discovery of an effective solution, IF such a thing consists of reformulated existing solutions.

Humans are particularly good at pattern recognition and copying a solution from one domain and pasting it into another.

Austin Kleon’s book “Steal Like an Artist” is a good entry point covering it.

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

Indeed, I am PISSED at the lack of protective kit given to the "Troops" on the front line

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

primum non nocere

First, do no harm.

Circa 1,000,000 medical doctors in the US alone.

While I agree that there are many who profit from artificially indices fear, if that fear can be eradicated or reduced by a reformulated but existing combination of therapies I believe it would be highly likely that local discovery and global scaling would occur at an “H-Hour” sense of urgency.

lets not forget the many health workers- doctors, nurses, aides - who are themselves getting sick, and how many of them are dying.

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

primum non nocere

First, do no harm.

Circa 1,000,000 medical doctors in the US alone.

While I agree that there are many who profit from artificially indices fear, if that fear can be eradicated or reduced by a reformulated but existing combination of therapies I believe it would be highly likely that local discovery and global scaling would occur at an “H-Hour” sense of urgency.

lets not forget the many health workers- doctors, nurses, aides - who are themselves getting sick, and how many of them are dying.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: the strong usd

It is my greatest wish that you are proven correct; it remains my greatest fear that the ongoing complete silence on the subject, means that those with the potential to bring forward new thinking, are instead following their desire for rapid career advancement which is backed up by spreading fearful information on the numbers of dead.

primum non nocere

First, do no harm.

Circa 1,000,000 medical doctors in the US alone.

While I agree that there are many who profit from artificially indices fear, if that fear can be eradicated or reduced by a reformulated but existing combination of therapies I believe it would be highly likely that local discovery and global scaling would occur at an “H-Hour” sense of urgency.

[Chris Coles]

Re: the strong usd

People want to live of course.

And healthcare professionals want their patients to live too.

If the protocol has such miraculous results then it will be peer reviewed, independently repeated, and quickly/cheaply scaled.

And if it has any applicability to COVID-19 treatment then the same will likely be trialled immediately due to greatly enhanced scope for rapid small scale trails.

I’m struggling to believe that an affordable/simple/scalable solution for either problem could remain undiscovered or suppressed in an age of ubiquitous information.

It is my greatest wish that you are proven correct; it remains my greatest fear that the ongoing complete silence on the subject, means that those with the potential to bring forward new thinking, are instead following their desire for rapid career advancement which is backed up by spreading fearful information on the numbers of dead.

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

Yep, Italy doing better, but at 106,000 now and going to hit 120,000 within a few days --- or about 2.5 weeks from the date of your post, not "months".

Yup, exponential growth can be a bitch and early on it's not easy to build models that aren't off by a factor of 2X or more. I've re-calibrated my model over the last 2+ weeks as I was too optimistic. My current model for the US is within 3-4% over the last week and I expect it will require some adjustment as the long tail of this unwinds.

We are slowing too but still growing at the exponential rate of around 18% per day.

That is massively incorrect. Today's growth rate in Italy was ~4%. That's a doubling over 17-18 days, not a doubling over ~4 days.

New York only skewed the data because they went first among big cities. Other cities are now where New York was 12 days ago in terms of hospital overload, and the future is grim. Just a few more "issues" than Michigan it seems.

Go ahead. Do the work and prove me incorrect. This is what I do every day. It's not fun watching cases mount in the US and analyzing outbreaks but everything you've said above is incorrect. Both New York and New Jersey are in crisis but they are managing it well. We can see that by the mortality rates.

Even the President now citing the "best case" of perhaps 200,000 U.S. deaths.

Sweet Jesus, you don't want to hang your argument on the coat hook of that buffoon?! "It's a democratic hoax" to 200,000 dead? If you support one, please support both.

I will concede that we won't hit 100,000,000 cases by mid April. Maybe we will be able to avoid that level for months. Maybe never even get there if we can flatten enough. I'm glad to be wrong on that account. But 200,000+ dead, perhaps millions, is nothing to be happy about.

As I asked before, please just give it up. You're just making up numbers. At this point it looks like 15-30,000 dead in the US.

We should have been prepared, but were not. The entire country should have been on stay-at-home orders weeks ago, and is still not. U.S. gov't almost ineffectual except for a few top public health officials trying to make fact-based statements. Almost no effective action to mobilize the country, defaulting to states. This is a train wreck still in progress.

Agree, we should have been prepared, we should have put health above finance, we didn't do either. It would have been better to have an effective leader in the administration but I think what we've learned again is that the US system is quite resilient in its design. We've seen governors step up and work with their health care systems to manage the outbreak. We've also seen them, (and the virus), shame the administration into working to slow this outbreak. This is not a train wreak, this is how the US F*s up most critical issues and then out performs almost every other country and finally pretends we invented every solution.

You could not have invented a worse person to lead this effort in the US but he is an American. As a group we are wired to always believe we're correct until we've been beaten over the head a few times and realize our ideas are s*it. Then we adopt a new path, pretending it was always our desired path. We're totally annoying that way but we have no allegiance to a losing cause. Watch what happens over the next month.

[peakishmael]

Re: the strong usd

That is pure conjecture and not borne out by the data in any country preceding us on this unhappy trail. Reported cases in the US have increased roughly 50X in the last two weeks. The great majority of that increase is due to lack of planning, testing and mitigation. We are not turning the corner yet, except possibly Washington state, but the virus will not continue to expand at this exponential rate now that most of us are using basic distancing and cleaning habits. As an extreme infection example I offer Italy. Absolutely overrun by the virus. Their rate of infection increase was 400% every 5 days just a week or 10 days ago. It is now 90%. Not great but it has continued to drop every day. Let's say they peak out at 120,000 cases. That's 2% of their population and that will take months.

The US has averaged a 35% reported increase in cases each day for the last two weeks. These rates of increase will not continue for another month. Also, when we talk about the US we have to understand that there is a rate of infection in New York that is 20X higher than the average of all other states. It skews the data as does West Virginia with 7 cases. I'm not saying there aren't issues. Michigan looks troubling. But please don't post this sort of hair-on-fire nonsense here.

Yep, Italy doing better, but at 106,000 now and going to hit 120,000 within a few days --- or about 2.5 weeks from the date of your post, not "months".

We are slowing too but still growing at the exponential rate of around 18% per day. New York only skewed the data because they went first among big cities. Other cities are now where New York was 12 days ago in terms of hospital overload, and the future is grim. Just a few more "issues" than Michigan it seems.

Even the President now citing the "best case" of perhaps 200,000 U.S. deaths.

I will concede that we won't hit 100,000,000 cases by mid April. Maybe we will be able to avoid that level for months. Maybe never even get there if we can flatten enough. I'm glad to be wrong on that account. But 200,000+ dead, perhaps millions, is nothing to be happy about. Hair should be on fire. We should have been prepared, but were not. The entire country should have been on stay-at-home orders weeks ago, and is still not. U.S. gov't almost ineffectual except for a few top public health officials trying to make fact-based statements. Almost no effective action to mobilize the country, defaulting to states. This is a train wreck still in progress.

[geodrome]

Re: the strong usd

Cheers for the local Russia perspective.

I didn’t expect the oligarchs and rings of very professional gangsters that enable, depend on, and support Putin to pay.

it will be interesting to see how Russia’s government(Putin) handles the steep decline in government income from collapsing energy prices.

Any thoughts on that part?

Well there is the Russian National Wealth Fund that was instituted specifically for this purpose. It's a kind stash for a rainy day. They save up when oil prices are higher for the times when oil prices go lower. The goal is to avoid a repeat of the Russian financial crisis of 1998 when the gov't ended up devaluing the ruble and defaulting on its debt.

Russia's GDP = ~113 trillion rubles
Russian federal budget: ~20 trillion rubles
Total assets of the Russian National Wealth Fund (March 2020): 8.25 trillion rubles = $123.4 bn = 7.3% Russian GDP.

How much will the GDP shrink? How long will oil prices stay low? Your guess is as good as mine.

Assuming a balanced budget (reasonable assumption: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-budget), if GDP shrinks say 20% and oil prices stay low for say a year, then by my paper napkin calculations there goes the national wealth fund, which I doubt they'd allow to go to zero. Remains to be seen how the coronavirus thing goes here, but I don't see how it could go any different than everywhere else.

Then what? Borrow from abroad? Who would lend? At what interest rate? Also, I think they still remember 1998, and are reluctant to borrow and be beholden to their lenders. So that leaves door #2a and #2b: increase taxes and print more rubles.

When they do the math will they allow the bodies to pile up to save the economy and try to manage that? I think not, but I certainly have no difficulty imagining that scenario. In any case pain ahead. A potential increase in political instability and an increase of repressive measures by the regime.

Just some rough thoughts.