the strong usd

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

australia also has a particular shortage of masks, since so many were used during the recent fires.

Also, the fact that masks in Australia have recently been shipped to China, does not help either:

https://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/new...china/3983282/

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

australia also has a particular shortage of masks, since so many were used during the recent fires.

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

The hospitals are being overwhelmed. OVERWHELMED! They are stacking corpses in the hallway! Only an idiot or a statistician would say this is a matter of debate.

I'm afraid you've totally misunderstood what I was saying. All I was attempting to do was question a point that geodrome made, that was all, nothing more nothing less.

Also, not all hospitals in every country in the world are being overwhelmed. At present, they are not being overwhelmed in Australia. Now, if Covid-19 really takes off here, and I don't know if it will, most likely our hospitals will be overwhelmed. Primarily because Australia does not have enough ICU beds available.

FWIW, I think Australia has been too slow to act. Fortunately, not as slow as the US, but still too slow. To date, the only thing in Australia's advantage as I understand the virus, is that it is still summer here. But as we move into winter, things might well take a turn for the worse.

[Woodsman]

Re: the strong usd

[Mega]

Re: the strong usd

[jk]

Re: the strong usd

there's still a dollar shortage to service dollar denominated debt, esp among em's which have been hard hit by the global sudden stop. otoh all major currencies are being devalued and it's hard to talk about a trade-weighted value when trade has stopped.

there can be no doubt, though, that pumping all this money into the economy has got to devalue the dollar vs "stuff." or at least some stuff. shortages can be expected to widen as suppliers have shut down, but consumption of basics, at least, will continue. what can happen to prices? now give everyone an extra $1200. what wil it be spent on? toilet paper.

i read an article about a restuarant outside chicago that was doing really well in its take-out business: it delivered a roll of toilet paper with every order! talk about full service - farm to table to toilet.

[GRG55]

Re: the strong usd

3.3 Million new applicants for unemployment benefits last week is staggering.
In Canada the figure was, proportionate to population size, three times worse than the USA at 1 Million applicants last week.

Looking at probabilities, instead of absolutes, there's probably three broad economic outcomes:

1. Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus worldwide results in a reasonably quick post-recession rebuild of economic activity once the virus is dealt with (say 12 to 24 months to get global GDP where it was);
2. Monetary and fiscal stimulus results in nothing better than very slow growth globally, over an extended period of time (a decade or more?), somewhat similar to everyone this past decade getting excited about 1% annual growth in Germany, the so-called "powerhouse" economy of Europe;
3. Global depression (which imo can't be entirely ruled out, although I think it still a low probability outcome given the policy responses we have seen so far).

Coming back to the title of this thread, I wonder if this is now the inflection point shaping up for the secular trend change in the US$.

• On the one hand the US Administration is throwing the US$ under the bus in an effort to stimulate a recovery from the current disaster. On the other hand, which nation anywhere else is NOT doing the same. So will it mean relative currency exchange valuations remain more or less the same?
• Then again, if international trade is smashed because of the virus, will the demand for US$ decline materially for some time?
• Or do we see all currencies inflate against some tangible reference such as gold, or oil, or Tesla battery packs?

[geodrome]

Re: the strong usd

Check out Chris Martenson's latest:

My point wasn't that no measures should be taken or measures should be relaxed, etc. I just think the epidemic might be further along than we believe and the death toll may not continue growing at the rate we extrapolate from current stats, which is potentially good news.


I am sure that some COVID-19 deaths aren't being counted as such. Especially by governments that want to keep their statistics "pretty." But IMO hospitalized persons with serious symptoms are much more likely to get tested. Thus I think on the whole selection bias is in the direction of testing those who are very sick and thus overestimating the death rate. It is uncertain by how much, but IMO infection rates are probably higher than we think and consequently the death rate is lower.


No doubt hospitals are overwhelmed. Theoretically the higher peak (as compared to say the flu) that we're trying to flatten may be due to higher R0 and/or higher death rate. I think our current statistics overestimate the death rate and underestimate R0. If we could test for anti-bodies to detect who's already had it and take some unbiased samples from around the world, it would give us a better idea of how far along we are. But given that the data are limited I think pre-cautions are justified.


I would also add that the economic displacement, the fear, the stress of lockdown, the news cycle has itself made people less resistant to infection. It's well known that stress reduces immunity. This stress has shaved off years of countless people's lives. We shouldn't only focus on the visible deaths, but the invisible effects as well, even though they're hard to measure.

[Chris Coles]

Re: the strong usd

The hospitals are being overwhelmed. OVERWHELMED! They are stacking corpses in the hallway! Only an idiot or a statistician would say this is a matter of debate.

On my part, the debate revolves around treatment protocol. Here in the UK we keep hearing about a desperate need for ventilators, assumed for desperately ill patients in ICU, for which the numbers are not in dispute. My input relates to the ongoing silence about the potential to use a cheap, safe and easily available protocol, intravenous Vitamin C, Hydrocortisone and Vitamin B1, (Thiamine), which has already been shown to bring down death rates for Sepsis by 80%. Why the silence?

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-..._copyURL_share

Check out Chris Martenson's latest:

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: the strong usd

This is valid, to the best of my knowledge. However, is it not possible that some will die due to Covid-19, but not be counted as Covid-19 deaths? I think this must be the situation. However, whether it is statistically significant or not, is the question.

P.S. I'm no statistician, by the way.

The hospitals are being overwhelmed. OVERWHELMED! They are stacking corpses in the hallway! Only an idiot or a statistician would say this is a matter of debate.

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

This is valid, to the best of my knowledge. However, is it not possible that some will die due to Covid-19, but not be counted as Covid-19 deaths? I think this must be the situation. However, whether it is statistically significant or not, is the question.

P.S. I'm no statistician, by the way.

[geodrome]

Re: the strong usd

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-..._copyURL_share

[Down Under]

Re: the strong usd

I've been tracking the outbreak by country in Europe for the last 2+ weeks. It is of course possible that Greece will see a severe outbreak but they've locked down the country yesterday at a time when the spread remained low and is declining in most other European countries so a spike in daily spread from the current 8-9% increase per day seems unlikely. BTW, that is also the rate of case spread in Italy. All my measurements are from March 10 through this morning and include the 13 countries in Europe with at least 50 identified cases of COVID-19 on 3/10. At that time 57% of all reported cases were in Italy. I'll offer two examples where the median age is similar:

* Italy had 9,172 reported cases and currently have 69,176, 6820 deaths, median age 45.5 years
* Germany had 1,281 reported cases and currently have 32,986, 181 deaths, median age 47.1 years

Thanks for your post, very informative. I'm a little surprised that the median age is lower in Italy than Germany. My understanding why Italy has such a high death rate is because they have a lot of old people in their population. I don't have time now to check this out, but if I get around to it, I'll try and post here with an update. However, based on the thoroughness of your post, it sounds like what you have posted is most likely correct.

[santafe2]

Re: the strong usd

how do you understand the differences between italy and greece. is it just that the virus hasn't really reached greece yet?

I've been tracking the outbreak by country in Europe for the last 2+ weeks. It is of course possible that Greece will see a severe outbreak but they've locked down the country yesterday at a time when the spread remained low and is declining in most other European countries so a spike in daily spread from the current 8-9% increase per day seems unlikely. BTW, that is also the rate of case spread in Italy. All my measurements are from March 10 through this morning and include the 13 countries in Europe with at least 50 identified cases of COVID-19 on 3/10. At that time 57% of all reported cases were in Italy. I'll offer two examples where the median age is similar:

* Italy had 9,172 reported cases and currently have 69,176, 6820 deaths, median age 45.5 years
* Germany had 1,281 reported cases and currently have 32,986, 181 deaths, median age 47.1 years

Population density is about the same, a bit higher in Germany.
Median age is about the same again a bit higher in Germany.

Yet we see ~20X more deaths in Italy so clearly median age is at best a small contributing factor. The main factors in mitigating mortality rates are:
* Germany was not first, they had more time to plan. We see that in Washington State, New York and now New Jersey, (proximity/community sharing to New York).
* Germany has a dedicated, government based elder care program in place. Structurally they were prepared to test the most vulnerable.
* Germany began aggressively testing and isolating the elderly and other vulnerable communities.
* Germany's medical system was not overrun. See New York by this weekend and all of next week.

Germany wasn't perfect in their response which allowed CV to spread more than it should have over the last 2+ weeks. As I'm writing Germany was just updated to 35,353 cases.

I don't have answers for you with regard to Greece. Was it luck? Planning? Distancing? Ouzo? For whatever reason, Greece has so far been spared but if age is a factor, it's a minor one.

Over the last couple of weeks I've had the time to refine my model and apply it to the US but the outcomes are reasonably predictable based on the following:
* When - was your locale early in the infection cycle without peer examples. Washington State, of course. I don't think New York saw Washington State as a peer. Clearly Oregon and California did.
* Social / Political response - Has your state employed shelter in place before virus spread reached 1:10,000 residents and/or reported spread rates were in excess of 3X over a 5 day period. Our state, New Mexico, is an example of one where the governor tends toward safety first. We received a shelter in place, gatherings of no more than 5 and a non-essential business shutdown when reported cases reached 1:25,000 and our spread rate was 19% per day. Too soon? I think she'll look smart in a month but she's receiving death threats today. Arizona, on the other hand has few state based sanctions. As an example, malls are still open. Their cases are currently 1:22,000 with a spread rate of 33% per day. At this rate their case load will be over 5,000 in 10 days. Arizona's governor is still looking for federal guidance. It will be too late.

And one personal story. I was scheduled to speak at a medical conference in St. Louis next week. When I started building my model for Europe I realized the same thing would happen in the US and that we were even less prepared. I reached out to the society president with my concerns when there was only one case in New Mexico and none in Missouri. He understood my concerns and was gracious enough to let me bow out but he was skeptical this would be an issue. Missouri and St. Louis still appear to be a bit skeptical as they've been very slow to react. The infection rate in Missouri is now 1:21,400 and the daily rate of spread is ~38%, the highest in the country with St. Louis as the epicenter where the numbers are even more troubling.

While I've worn several hats in my professional career, I've worked as a data and business analyst for the last seven years. I have a difficult time understanding how people let their belief systems keep them from understanding a threat that is so easily measurable. I suspect that's more in your area of expertise. Be safe.