silver train leaving the station?

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

"Wasn't kingsworld kind of talking down silver a month ago?"


That is not true from my experience.


I tracked that site daily for last 8 months, and if anything, they have very bullish about silver; their guests (James Turk) have made specific price calls that, at the time seemed rather improbable, but have come to more or less fruition.


As for the all the sensational "rumors, JPM shorts", I don't recall KWN addressing them significantly - I get the sense they have plenty of their own pipeline of legitimate and front line sources.


My verdict: KWN is highly effective site - the proof in pudding will be whether they can help with leading indicator signals just before a "2008 like" crash (I was not tracking them at the time)


(Disclaimer- I am one of the many (I assume in this iTulip forum) customers of some the KWN guests (Turk, Sprott - goldmoney, PSLV).

[cpnscarlet]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

My biggest sign to buy Silver (I'm still way overweight, too much to be good risk management) was that I could convince NO ONE to buy it. Not even elderly North American immigrants from India & China, 2 countries where Silver used to be revered.

My one "No Thanks" story happened about 2 months ago when I was in a collectibles shop and the manager (who knew about and sold silver coins) turned down my offer of a silver round at $4 below spot to pay for a book I wanted. I think in a few more months, he'll be of the mindset not to make that mistake again.

[Kadriana]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Wasn't kingsworld kind of talking down silver a month ago? Basically saying all the rumors about 100 oz. bars being in short supply are silly and the whole JP Morgan being short was a joke and all the shorts wasn't as big of a deal as people were making it out to be.

[Spartacus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

My biggest sign to buy Silver (I'm still way overweight, too much to be good risk management) was that I could convince NO ONE to buy it. Not even elderly North American immigrants from India & China, 2 countries where Silver used to be revered.

I was always VERy nervous about basing my conclusions on these subcultures because a good number of these folks re-balanced their mutual fund portfolios every 6 months based on the last 10 years' top-performers (!!!!) yes, I'm not kidding. A bunch still do, after losing money year after year after year. Despite many of their younger relatives telling them to stop doing it hundreds of times.

Still can't convince them to get in, but now because "it's in a bubble" (or for those who don't speak the lingo, "it has gone up too much").

I think we're in the early stages of phase 2 (out of 3). 3 = Mania phase.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

2x Pretty good interviews in this 21 minute King World News Weekly Metals Wrap. The first one (Bill Haynes of CMI Gold & Silver) actually touches upon the phase/stage silver is in as per our above discussion (skip to 6:15 if you are in a hurry). Not sure I agree with the time spans mentioned (phase1: 10 years, phase2: 10+ years, phase3: blow-off phase), but otherwise I agree with his views. The second speaker (Dan Norcini of JS MineSet) reviews current fundamentals in the short term pushing silver & gold even higher. I also follow Dan's PM blog (click his link).

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...tals_Wrap.html

(click "Listen to MP3" purple icon on left side, half way down).

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Adeptus

Will keep this short so others can answer your good questions and thoughtful post.

After EJ did forecast showing gold at low of 1100, he commented that geopolitical tensions could change this low to higher number
Anything is possible - others much more knowledgeable then me see gold holding at $1300. I agree based on buying of China and other emerging nations

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I think we're in the early stages of phase 2 (out of 3). 3 = Mania phase.

Signs of early phase 2;
1. Less than 5% of all your family and friends have bought any silver in the past 2 years (excluding those you influenced strongly). Mania = at least 50% talking about it, and 20%+ bought in. This would result in ALL your coin/bullion stores being emptied out (not just 1 out 5).
2. MSM has only *just* started suggesting it may be a good idea to buy (last week Cramer mentioned it and also CNBC). New York Post had their first story on it.
3. Financial Reps just starting to re-think that maybe putting in 5-10% might be a good idea, but no more.
4. Cash4Gold mania has just started to perhaps simmered down. Called my dad in Portugal this week and he mentioned that after hundreds of cash4gold stores opening up all over the country in the past ~2 years, that he now noticed a few of them (less than 10%) starting to close because they can't get enough clients to keep the business running (i.e. most that would sell the family jewls for survival reasons have probably just finished doing so). After the SELL phase, will start the BUY phase. Wait until at least 30-40% of these cash4gold places close shop.

My experience at work: Out of a group of about 50 people I chat with weekly here in Western Canada, 1 was into physical PMs (coins only) and miners 1 year before I was. This past week, my boss (a highly intelligent guy) actually asked me the question if I thought Precious Metals is going to be a good investment since I mentioned I was spending some time reviewing my investment portfolio. Aside from that, nobody else is even talking about it. One other guy was into Uranium mid 2010 and was bragging he made good money, but also mentioned his dad was losing a lot of money shorting PMs expecting the crash to come any time (this was 3 months ago). My local bullion/coin stores are however mentioning that they've never had such high demand before. That said, my main bullion store though still has plenty (a couple hundred?) of 100 oz bars, but Candian Maples are on a ~4 week+ back order for the past 1.5 months.

Why the Mania hasn't hit yet:
1. Massive numbers of retail outlets aren't out of silver for months at a time (only a few here and there, and current delays are around 2-4 weeks to delivery). Mania would be when delays are 2-4months, for months on end.
2. COMEX hasn't defaulted (yet) - still 100 Million ounces left (assuming we believe their #'s). Look out for a potential SHARP decline in COMEX inventories, shortly thereafter phase 3 will start.
3. China Central Bank *just* announced they will include Silver as a form of reserve for the country. Wait till a few more countries do the same.
4. High inflation isn't yet evidenced in developed western countries from the perspective of Joe6Pak. Yes some saw gas prices ticking up last week, and food is up this week 5-10%+, but until this is a trend for many months and increasing in severity, Joe6pak will shrug his shoulders and remain on the couch drinking that 6 pack.
5. The mania in Silver and gold should be world wide, given inflation will be world wide, so the vertical parabolic spike this time could be extremely high. Hunt Bro's was mostly a fast North American event. Remember, their spike was $50.... decades ago, so adjust for inflation, we're a long ways off.
6. Premiums over spot at the coin stores are only 7-15% due to fast increase in silver prices. Mania = 30%-50% premiums
7. Wait until the MSM has economist/analyst one after the other recommend silver/gold buying at 20%+ of the portfolio every single day. When the MSM starts pumping it as the #1 fast way to make money, that might be a hint that the crash is weeks or a couple of months away.
8. Kitco silver lease rates are still below 2%. Watch for a spike to 20-30%+.
9. Evening and newspaper headlines aren't yet filled with "House theft for jewlary has increased 3 fold in the past 3 months".

For me, the #1 reason the mania hasn't hit yet is because we're due for another large global crash later this year as per EJ (Fed forced crash or China forced). The crash won't last long (TPTB globally should be more awake this time), and it will be VERY interesting to see if the Fed will QE3 for one last hurrah. I'm hoping to be able to sell *some* of my silver at the beginning of the crash and then possibly buy back in after the crash recovery starts - probably I'll keep most of my physical, just liquidate all stock forms. It will also be VERY interesting to see what the flight for safety during the crash becomes. The recent Middle East circumstances are strongly suggesting the USD may have lost some trust as the flight to safety. If it is replaced by PMs (even if only in part), then the crash induced upward price spike, could very well be the start of the mania. When the entire planet is trying to buy gold/silver, the hunt bro's $50/oz spike should be tiny by comparison.

My #2 reason - EJ hasn't yet said "Time at last to sell gold"! ;-)


My #3 reason - Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Mish haven't yet suggested that it's time to get out.

My #4 reason: My newspapers don't yet look like this:

I'd love it others also started to report in with their anectdotal stories so that we can get a more hollistic perspective from various parts of the world, to help track the mania.

1. What % are you into PMs?
2. What % of your family bought PMs in the past 2 years for investment purposes?
3. What % of your friends " " "
4. What % of your co-workers are talking about PMs and what % bought?
5. What's going on at your local coin/bullion stores?
6. What are you seeing on your MSM TV?
7. What are you seeing in your newspapers?
8. What $$ stories are people talking about at Starbucks and dinner parties?

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Right now the commercials and large traders are fading as the small speculator is increasing longs. We are not at maximum or minimum values yet but we all know what's coming next short term. Intermediate term, my charts show silver can get close to 46-47 by end of this year maybe sooner- confidence level 60%. If silver does close at 46 with gold close to 2000 we are near a 42 to 1 ratio. Just my guess that with impact of inflation being felt more in q2 silver may make a nice run into second half.

Having been in two speculative housing markets in CA (late 80s and recently), this silver mania looks awfully familiar. So taking into account this rally has 4-5 years left, I am exercising patience and waiting for the next bottom. Someone said joesixpack is in when we are talking about gold or silver junior miners rather than Intel at a party. That may be a stretch but once the money starts flowing into leveraged investments, like our real estate mortgage market, consider preserving your assets and start taking profits.
Joe (aka joesixpack-just kidding)

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

"Unless joesix pack starts to enter the market??"
...
I feel there is a strong possibility the masses are starting to enter- the signs are there but I have no quantifiable/tangible numbers or its sensitivity/impact on small silver market:
...
As the masses realize the need to grasp something "real' in a world of lies and fraud, it will be easier to get into silver as opposed to gold.

why i started buying eagles last spring, but then my cashflow dried up going into summer, so i stopped (right at the wrong moment, dammit!)

....
I am overweight in silver- but the 50 weekly MA of gold and silver respectively was an eye opener - Silver does look technically scary.

exactly.... that SPIKE is just so..so... threatening-chlling looking = why i sold my CDE this past week, for a gain of 80% (mostly for seasonal/income reasons: lousy feb for me, biz wise and spring in the rockies/wasatch beckons)

and 'conventional wisdom' states: when joe6pack goes in, usually thats when the 'smartmoney' sells, is it not?
speaking/writing as one of joes cuzzins... (V&T guy that i am...) my observation of these 'manias' (nasdaq in 1999, housing in 2006, oil in 2008, grains/hogs in 2010, gold 201x ?) it seems that just as the herd gets interested, the big money sells into the rally and walks away with most of the upside run - again eye see same thing happening - or - the $64000 question: are we still early in the game yet?

anyone for a 'show of hands' ?:

1: better than even money odds silver sees 50 or higher by may, zigs/zags-keeps on going (barring a swan flyin by)
or
2: pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered; take some off the table while the upward momentum is there
or
3: JPM et al are still sweatin, china/india are gobbling up all they can get and we aint seen nuthin yet: buy baby, B U Y

and, if 1 & 3 are good answers, what kind of a %drop would make you add to your holdings in the near term ?

(long term i think bernanke&co is trippin/lying thru their teeth and almost everything is going up in dollar terms, but i cant bet much, as i simply dont have any 'longterm' money, beyond a year or so of living expenses and not very good biz prospects short term - in years past, i wouldve bought rolls of wire, a/c pumps, refrig condensor assys etc this time of year - but confidence is low at the moment, and getting stuck with inventory is worse than having no work - but just sittin in cash is getting scarier by the week)

thanks to the commenters here - i suspect theres lots of lurkers watching, who - like me (smalltimers) - are trying to make sense of whats going on, so we dont get hosed by just another (short term) sucker rally

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

"Unless joesix pack starts to enter the market??"


I feel there is a strong possibility the masses are starting to enter- the signs are there but I have no quantifiable/tangible numbers or its sensitivity/impact on small silver market:


- As CNBC recent clip (posted in forum) with Warren Buffet also concurred with interviewer- perception is that inflection point has occurred regarding inflation and time to address deficit risks (default option is "to inflate").


- Global conscious has picked up "inflation" as seen daily by their food and gas prices.


- You get bloggers like these highlighting that possibly millions of the masses are listening to upcoming dire scenarios

http://www.youtube.com/user/silverfu.../2/xxvS8gBFs7I


- The corruption of the our industrial complexes (financial, medical, military etc- see EJ's book) may be starting to be noticed: "Inside job" wins the OSCARs, Dr. OZ (Oprah's entourage) had a show last week on MDs behaviour/practices steered towards "profits" rather than patient actual needs/root causes.



As the masses realize the need to grasp something "real' in a world of lies and fraud, it will be easier to get into silver as opposed to gold.


I am overweight in silver- but the 50 weekly MA of gold and silver respectively was an eye opener - Silver does look technically scary.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Sorry, couldn't resist....

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

This increase reminds of what happened when I entered last September. Corrections were expected but silver kept rising.
Let's think what is different
1. The weekly chart shows silver breaking out of a 1 year consolidation in Sept. This breakout is a not a retracement from January low, it a parabolic increase.
2. Public opinion was at a low in Sept, it is now at its third high the past 12 months - other highs were Feb 2010 and Nov 2010. The attached shows opinion reaching top of Bollinger band now
3. Consider reward to risk ratio. My simple litmus is look at crossing of 50 day ma on weekly chart. Compare this to gold's chart-use stockcharts.com
4. Whenever a price goes parabolic, rockets vertical to massive gains in a short period of time, it creates a sense of euphoria amongst its traders. So with silver up 25% in just 1 month, odds are most of the capital that wants to buy silver has already bought in. With all interested buyers likely deployed, there just aren’t enough new buyers to offset selling pressure from profit-taking. Unless joesix pack starts to enter the market?? Take a look at a wheat monthly chart for what happens after a parabola increase in 2002 and 2007.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

where are we on the graph, assuming there is, in fact, a 'short squeeze' happening to JPM et al?

Last I heard from the rumour mill (somewhere in about 6 different silver blogs I follow - sorry I can't URL it for you), they've supposedly unwound some 1/3 of their position in the past few months. So 2/3 to go? Who knows? The latest (crazy) rumour is that those standing for physical delivery at the comex recently were bribed upwards of 80% on top of spot to accept a cash settlement instead. Even if some were to receive only 20%, this would be incentive to come back for round two during the next delivery date with at least that extra 20% more + a whole bunch of friends and their speculative $$ - not to mention that not delivering physical on a contract probably constitutes of fraud, but what do I know? (not much)

I'm just sticking to fundamentals, which do suggest silver can still easily double from here in the next 2 years. It could also crash and burn 30-60% if the Fed ends the QE party in June and crashes global stock markets, or if Oil spikes and settles around $140 or $150 USD/barrel, triggering another recession (and stock market unwind) as per one of EJ's thesis. Then there's the China crash potential, bringing global commodities to a standstill, then mass reversal.

I think Silver will continue to go up until at least early summer for the following reasons:
1. The QE party is on until at least June
2. Arabic revolutions are likely to continue to intensify over the next few months due to the self-perpetuating food-oil revolution cycle. Libya burns oil field (yesterday), oil prices go up, transportation costs go up, food inflation increases (remember, not much areable land in desert countries), high food costs spark increased revolutions in existing protesting arabic countries + others not yet in full protest mode, more protests = higher risk to producting oil sector in arabic countries. As oil goes, so goes gold. As gold goes, so goes silver x 2.
3. So long as China's economy does not blow up, the global commodity party continues. Lookout below when the music stops though!

In short, keep your eye on Oil, China & the Fed. I think the Europe domino collapse is still on, but maybe we can save that one for 2012. Don't want to shoot all the fireworks at once now. The only other mass-event I'm aware of is the US muni-bond crisis. I haven't quite wrapped my head around the global impact of that one.

In the short term, barring any more excessive escalation in the Arabic countries (i.e. Gadaffi goes even more ballistic on his people with imported/paid off terrorists, or the rumoured March 11th Saudi Arabia protests go off the rails, Algeria protests escalate further), then silver *may* trade sideways for a bit, until the next COMEX delivery date, then expect further upward acceleration due to speculation surrounding potential COMEX physical default for the Nth time.

2011 Key (obvious) macro risks (excluding black swans):




Longer term Macro synthesis influencing everything including Silver:

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...al-2011-themes



At the current pace, we'll see $40 by May, 2011, after that... to the Moon!


Adeptus

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Noting how damn hard it is to stay balanced & skeptical with this kind of week / month.

I may need to start taking luudes. Got any?

no, but i just cracked my first can o schweppes for the fryday afternoon V&T's (and limes all of a sudden got cheap last week ;)

Too much to hope for? The very next day some rich New Yorker New Yorkers (the people so rich they got named twice) start running the price up?

(price Au)/(price Ag) now 40.2

so i guess the question is: ARE WE AT OR NEAR AN INTERIM TOP?
like, say, all of a sudden 'the facts' reveal the supposed short squeeze is a hoax?
or will evidence be shown that causes a stampede IN to ag?

from: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...ver-lining/?hp

“More than two years ago, the agency began an investigation into silver markets,” Chilton said at a commission hearing last October. “I have been urging the agency to say something on the matter for months … I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.” What’s more, Chilton said in an interview last week, that “one participant” in the silver market still controlled 35 percent of the silver market as recently as a few months ago, “enough to move prices,” he said, and well above the 10 percent “position limits” the commission has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank financial reform law. Since that law’s passage last summer, the commodities exchanges have issued waivers permitting the ownership of silver positions above the limits the C.F.T.C. has proposed, and which were supposed to be in place by January of this year. Yet the waivers remain in place, and the big traders have not been penalized, much to Chilton’s frustration And the mystery deepens: last Thursday, the price of silver fell $1.50 per ounce in less than an hour before recovering. “This was robbery at its most obvious and most vindictive,” wrote Richard Guthrie, a London-based trader, in an e-mail to Chilton. “How many investors lost money and positions to the financial benefit of an elite few?”
It’s getting harder and harder to continue to brush off Andrew Maguire’s claims as the rantings of a rogue trader with a nutty online following. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission should immediately release the files from its investigation into the supposed manipulation of the silver market so the public can determine whether JPMorganChase and HSBC did anything illegal, with or without the help of the Fed. In addition, the commission should start enforcing the 10 percent threshold on silver positions it has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank law. Basically, the other commissioners must join with Bart Chilton to do the job they are required to do: Protecting the sanctity of the markets and preventing the sorts of manipulation we’ve seen all too often.


---------
that last sentence = rich, isnt it? (with irony, esp for a NYT finance commentator)


but OK - lets parse this one out - where are we on the graph, assuming there is, in fact, a 'short squeeze' happening to JPM et al? from whats been discussed here recently, would think we're just getting going on the ride up? (disclaimer: i havent any idea about what i'm talking about here, WHY I'M ASKING...)


or has most of the ride up already occurred and we're riding along the upper plateau (just before the smart money pulls the trigger - and will the sell off go to gold?)

[Spartacus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Noting how damn hard it is to stay balanced & skeptical with this kind of week / month.

I may need to start taking luudes. Got any?

The silver conspiracy (?) theory finally makes it to the New York times, albeit to an editor's blog, not necessarily front page news (yet).

A Conspiracy With a Silver Lining

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...ver-lining/?hp

Too much to hope for? The very next day some rich New Yorker New Yorkers (the people so rich they got named twice) start running the price up?

(price Au)/(price Ag) now 40.2