silver train leaving the station?

[jpetr48]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Thank you for your response Adeptus. Your research shows. I am approaching this from what is vision for my portfolio. Simply high alpha low correlation to spy.
Attached is a spreadsheet I ran on different asset classes. it is more of a long term view on what are high performing alpha low correlation asset classes. No surprises but the magnitude in alpha difference does tell a story. Since this is long term, the dollar is ranked as one of top and slv is near bottom. I expect this will adjust if I ran a shorter time frame.

Open to suggestions on an asset/instrument "screener" that includes alpha and Rsquared(correlation).

BTW- The original intent of doing spreadsheet this was to give some perspective on intermarket relationships. I am trying to develop something of a cause-effect simple one page map of various asset classes like bonds commodities currencies etc

[Adeptus]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

King World News can be too much of a cheerleader.

I agree! That's actually what I mean to say when I said Erik's questions 'lead an interview down a certain path', except you got right to the point. For instance he went on and on about 100:1 CFTC paper to bullion ratio which some suggest was taken out of context and thus debunked (see vid link below "bears go full retard"), and then again about 100 oz bars running out (they haven't, only temporarily at some locations). So again, this is why it is important to hear what several people/sites have to say. I find the Financial Sense Newshour guys a little more balanced.


VIDEO - CLICK LINK HERE: http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/1134...go-full-retard

Did I read right Adeptus -70% PMs in your portfolio. What were the factors promoting this allocation %?

That was definitely not all at once and certainly not all at $11/oz (I wish!!), but it was a significant portion at the time none the less - but nothing to brag about compared to some of the old timer itulipers on here who got in at $6 silver and $275 gold. I work a full time job, and then some (overtime galore - not fun!), so I don't have tonnes of time to do research; besides, I've kind of lost faith in the stock market as a whole with all the manipulations going on (zero hedge definitely convinced me on that front!). This year, I've actually already taken 4 weeks of holidays to spend 12 hours a day reading up on the PM market (hence all the links above). Also being Canadian, I sure as heck wasn't going to invest in US dollar equities or US treasuries (sorry EJ) with the Fed continuously debasing the US dollar. The Canadian dollar has risen some 30-40% against USD in the past 3 years, so I'm very glad I didn't do that. I also have no faith in European market due to low GDPs and recently high risk, and I totally missed out the BRIC party before that. I don't believe in investing the Canadian insane real estate market since 2005, especially on the West Coast ... so what's a guy to do? I did manage to escape the 2008 crash with only 4-5% loss (in great part thanks to itulip!), but then missed the Mar 2009 recovery big time (shoulda listened to Lukester here at itulip and Marc Faber). While I have a long background in IT, I freggin' hate Apple products so from a moral standpoint I wasn't going to invest in that (my loss obviously), and I totally missed out on NetFlix, but did score 30% on Visa IPO . So as you can see, I'm hardly an example to follow in general; I'm a hit and miss. That said, as per above, I have recently spent a hella lot of time reading up on PM market, so hence my comments now and then and where I've put my money. I know you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, but (like EJ) I seriously don't see a whole lot of safety in any stock markets, unless it is for a relatively short term trade. I also missed out on Oil recently. $84/barrel just sounded too high, and I was waiting for a larger market correction -didn't see Fed exporting inflation to cause middle east revolutions. Oh well. I did listen to Marc Faber and Jim Rogers suggest people invest heavily into aggricultural stocks, so I could have done that for sure as I believed them, but morally I couldn't do it. The profits I could have made, would have translated to a few dozen or a few hundred people in some 3rd world country having to pay higher prices because of my greedy speculation. I've limited knowledge in bonds, and their yields seem to barely keep up with inflation, and I'm not about to do leveraged trades. I've only started learning about options trading but not confident yet. So to sumarize, I'm mostly into PMs due to process of elimination, besides, as per SilverGoldSilver's #5 vid (See below), there's a looong list of reasons why PMs should continue to be a good long term investment (although, if Fed doesn't do QE3, all bets are off).

[jiimbergin]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

BTW- Did I read right Adeptus -70% PMs in your portfolio. What were the factors promoting this allocation %?

He must have listed to jtabeb My own allocation is 40%gold, 11% silver, 3% miners,2% oil,3% other commodities, 41% cash.

[jpetr48]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Those sites definitely keep you in the game. The caution for the newbie is try not to get addicted to listening to other people's opinions. King World News can be too much of a cheerleader. Example- end of 2010 their key guests that they interview were loading up on PMs. Anyone that follows seasonality and charting knew better- 3 weeks later perfect buying opportunity. David Morgan (I think it was him) said end of 2010 that silver will slow down this year because of significant run-up. Learning a little about tech charting and following intermarket relationships is a good place to start - unless you started to invest in PMs in 2008 and bought silver at $11.

BTW- Did I read right Adeptus -70% PMs in your portfolio. What were the factors promoting this allocation %?

[Adeptus]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

The SilverGoldSilver blog can get a bit childish at times, and the blog author strikes me as rather imature (swearing, big ego, biased, etc) and seems to buy into every silver conspiracy theory out there, so I don't trust his info as much; however, I have to give him credit for the first 3 XtraNormal cartoons (the 4th one IMO went off the rails), and also I have to give him credit for being quick to the punch to post *potentially* impactful silver related news before most other blogs; so I do visit it a few times a week, but for a beginner, it may be more difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff on that site.

Jesse's Cafe was recently rated as the #4 economic blog in the world for whatever that's worth. I should have added him to the list. Good TA going on there. In short, my approach to timing entries has been to consider the views from all these guys, and when they are mostly in agreement, I take the plunge.

King World News can be very educational, as their daily podcasts tend to include a lot of the PM big shots and many credible guests; however, while most of the guests are worth listening to, they do vary in quality, so listener beware. I think Erik does his site a disfavour by having people like Gerald Celente on there. To me that guy is half psychologically koo-koo and ultra depressing, and has been predicting the end of the world (or thereabouts) for years. He may be right eventually, but I can no longer stand to hear that guy speak. I should also mention that at times I find Erik trying to lead an interview down a certain path with carefully worded biased questions, which takes away from a more open interview, but overall I do recommend his site as most of the speakers are good and the info educational.

[chedir007]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Would recommend also these free sites:

1) King World News
2) Jesse's Cafe Americain
3) Silvergoldsilver

[Adeptus]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

I bought my last large physical batch at $30 and will hold for quite a while until several fundamentals hint at seriously reversing, this could be 1,2 or 5 years, and/or until a housing crash in Canada occurs and I can get real estate at 30-50% discount (I know, I'm not holding my breath, I could be waiting a while, but am confident it will happen).

Given I've been buying physical silver since late 2008 starting at ~$11, I've reached my physical limit for now. That said, I will soon be entering the ultra risky world of miners but will be aggressive in extracting profits quickly until I recover 100% of my investment in that area, then I'll let the remainder ride for a while.

If I were just getting started, I strongly suggest you get physical first, then worry about stocks, ETFs, miners later. The thing about buying physical is that it forces instant discipline - you can't left click on the mouse and sell it as a result of a temporary emotional state. Silver can correct aggressively at times (20-30%+), so yeah you can wait for a signifcant dip (i.e. if US shutdown doesn't occur later today - I have no idea whether it will or not), but if you are an amateur, this is not as easy as it sounds. To greatly improve your chances of a good timely entry into Silver/Gold I strongly suggest reviewing the following sites for a few days:

BOOKMARK THESE...
1. Along the WatchTower (Turd Furgeson) Silver Technical Analysis (TA) Blog: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/ (10 years experience in comodities)
2. Ira Epsteins twice daily metal's TA report: http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures (30+ years trading comodities)
3. Trader Dan's Blog: http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/ (20+ years trading comodities)
4. Harvey Organ's Blog: http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ (30 years wallstreet experience, including 13 years PM specific research & investing)


I also recommend:
1. Keeping an eye on this awesome free GoogleDocs spreadsheet (note multiple tabs):
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...F&hl=en#gid=17
2. Awesome free access to near real time silver/gold charts (also useful to learn basic TA skills):
http://netdania.com/Products/live-st...anceChart.aspx
3. Read Kitco PM news:
http://www.kitco.com/

Good luck everyone! :-)

Disclaimer....I'm currently:
43% - Gold
30% - Silver
21% - Cash or equivalents
5% - Stocks

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Someone close to me finally has enough money to buy some silver and he's asking me if this is a good time to buy. I honestly don't know what to tell him. Wait for a dip that may never come, or buy at a high, put it away and be glad you have it at any price?

If I had no precious metals and had cash whose purchasing power I wanted to protect, I'd buy precious metals now and prepare for a much more volatile ride than in past years. If I felt that I'd have an involuntary bowel movement from that kind of volatility, I'd spend half the money now and hope for a better price in the future. Also, another way of dealing with volatility is to buy gold instead of silver.

So long as the U.S. doesn't fix its economy and has useful idiots such as Bernanke running monetary policy, precious metals are going to remain in a bull market. With things as they are in the U.S., higher precious metals prices seem like a slam dunk -- even at today's all-time high prices.

Full disclosure: I own precious metals (gold and silver) and am hoping for a correction to buy more. If we get a 20% correction, it'll probably be the last batch of precious metals I buy.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

I am advising friends on CEF. It add a pullback recently from a high because of purchase of gold/silver. NAV 22.66 trading at 22.86 as of 6 am today. This minimize the risk reward of silver, takes advantage of both their rise going forward. I was an am still more bullish on gold over the long haul and will buy slv on its next pullback

I am doing the same, although I also suggest physical.

[jpetr48]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

I am advising friends on CEF. It add a pullback recently from a high because of purchase of gold/silver. NAV 22.66 trading at 22.86 as of 6 am today. This minimize the risk reward of silver, takes advantage of both their rise going forward. I was an am still more bullish on gold over the long haul and will buy slv on its next pullback

[Kadriana]

Re: Silver Train...

Silver eagle demand was down in march. It seems that the little guy is not what is pushing this market. Max Keiser needs to work harder!





http://www.localgoldsales.com/gold-m...-does-it-mean/

When are the 90% silver quarters expected to be released? I've heard a lot of buzz over them and I wonder if people have backed down from silver eagles a bit wanting the quarters.

[shiny!]

Breaking through $40 tonight

From the close today at $39.64, silver is shooting past $40, now at $40.11. When I look at the chart I feel sick to my stomach. This is a picture of the dollar, or confidence in the dollar, collapsing.

The question is, will it keep moving up or are we due for another crash like 2008?

Someone close to me finally has enough money to buy some silver and he's asking me if this is a good time to buy. I honestly don't know what to tell him. Wait for a dip that may never come, or buy at a high, put it away and be glad you have it at any price?

[aaron]

Re: Silver Train...

Silver eagle demand was down in march. It seems that the little guy is not what is pushing this market. Max Keiser needs to work harder!





http://www.localgoldsales.com/gold-m...-does-it-mean/

[charliebrown]

Re: Silver Train...

I would only buy silver u.s. coins, Only buy in small lots, and I suppose we do the deal at U.S. post office where I would have a pre-addressed box and mail them off as soon as I got them. Just musings, I'm still thinking. I think I will take a few morgans to cash for gold and see what they offer. My guess is less than half of spot.

[DSpencer]

Re: Silver Train...

I suppose I would consider significant to be a couple monster boxes although even that is a small amount in the grand scheme of things. People I know that have picked up silver might be getting a couple peace dollars or a roll of eagles. I don't know anyone, myself included, with a meaningful amount of silver.

I don't know many either, but I do know a couple. It's always tricky to know how widespread it is, because a prudent person doesn't run around screaming about having tens of thousands of dollars worth of silver, gold, cash, etc.