silver train leaving the station?

[Kadriana]

Re: Silver Train...

What would you (or anyone else) consider to be a significant amount? I know that most people view these investments in terms of percentages, but the absolute amounts seem more important to me. If someone is worth ~40 bucks and is "all in" silver with 1 oz, that doesn't seem very meaningful.

I suppose I would consider significant to be a couple monster boxes although even that is a small amount in the grand scheme of things. People I know that have picked up silver might be getting a couple peace dollars or a roll of eagles. I don't know anyone, myself included, with a meaningful amount of silver.

[c1ue]

Re: Silver Train...

Can I do an end run around "cash for gold". They pay out terribly. Post to craig's list and promise to beat cash for gold
by 30%?

I'd be really careful.

Besides the valuation issue (is that 24K, 14K, or fools' gold?), you also have the issue of showing up for a meeting with a random stranger carrying lots of cash.

[DSpencer]

Re: Silver Train...

I can't believe it's moves. To answer your earlier question, 2 family members and 2 friends have gotten some silver but not a significant amount. Only one is still occasionally picking it up. The other 3 just bought a small amount and have just been sitting on it. I don't know what we're going to do for Christmas this year. The last 5 years we were getting 1 oz. coins for everyone. I guess we better buy this year's coin soon but I have 8 nieces and nephews now. :/ It's getting expensive.

What would you (or anyone else) consider to be a significant amount? I know that most people view these investments in terms of percentages, but the absolute amounts seem more important to me. If someone is worth ~40 bucks and is "all in" silver with 1 oz, that doesn't seem very meaningful.

[charliebrown]

Re: Silver Train...

one Saturday a month, I hit the antique stores, flea markets etc. looking for silver coins mostly morgan and peace dollars.
One of my favorite dealers who usually has scores of coins had 2 (two) bullion coins that was all. Another dealer had morgans at $29, (At that point I think a morgan had a melt value of around 26 - 27) he would not sell them to me even though they were marked $29. I was able to trade some one oz. sterling bars for some, but he would not take cash. I was able to find one bahamanian commerative coin at an antique store way under spot. I think I paid $22 for a coin with a melt value of 27. One coin does not a fortune make.

I have yet to make my April run. This time I'm going to call first, March was a bust, and gas is $3.95

Can I do an end run around "cash for gold". They pay out terribly. Post to craig's list and promise to beat cash for gold
by 30%?

Another question ... I generally want to keep 5% of my money in silver. I am now over allocated. I'm now 6% and climbing (Mostly in PSLV) Should I reallocate? Into what? XLE, GTU? USD? given the historical ratio beween gold and silver, silver could see $70 an ounce. That may require it to be re-monitized.

[Kadriana]

Re: Silver Train...

CHOO! CHOO!!!

I can't believe it's moves. To answer your earlier question, 2 family members and 2 friends have gotten some silver but not a significant amount. Only one is still occasionally picking it up. The other 3 just bought a small amount and have just been sitting on it. I don't know what we're going to do for Christmas this year. The last 5 years we were getting 1 oz. coins for everyone. I guess we better buy this year's coin soon but I have 8 nieces and nephews now. :/ It's getting expensive.

[Adeptus]

Silver Train...




CHOO! CHOO!!!

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Despite all the technical red flags, hand wringing...silver breaking out today (?)


Oil also passing 105$......everything I am reading points to that inflation scares will now push investors further to metals....up to a point......before oil goes too high and causes a shock to economy......causing deflation......oops....I MEAN DISINFLATION (sorry Fred)


However, sounds like getting the exit strategy for silver will be a challenge.......this chart shows how silver went up 50% in 2 weeks, and then collapsed 50% in 2 DAYs in 1980s....


http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions....days-possible/

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

And now, for a total WTF moment in silver news.... You can't make this *h*t up because you can't even imagine it!

Just when you thought the Silver conspiracy theories couldn't get any more crazy, check out this bit of news just released today...

It even made it to the Wall Street Journal... LOL
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/03/0...lver-investor/

miss one phreakin day on some of these blogs and what happens?
HILARIOUS!!!!

the: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/03/0.../tab/comments/
ought to be worth the 'price of admission' on this one

but in fairness to charlie - the real one - lots of names are spoofed on the wsj comments - my fave is 'the undertaker' for those who've read his stuff: "the mad squirrel NWO criminal... bankster...fraud.. bernanke..." types etc who usually surfaces on the 'real time econ' blog - he was my hero (til eye found a ref to the tulip)

but methinks that charlie (along with lindsey) are just the tip of the iceberg/beginning of the krackup of the celebrity class, who if they werent already neurotic enuf, are starting to buckle under the pressure to keep titilating the masses (of celebrity worshippers in the lamestream media) to keep the eyeballs and the money rolling in fer hollywierd.... (since hiphop seems to be causing a tectonic shift to nashville, far as the music center of the universe is concerned...)

wrote the guy who couldnt make it to WY this past summer - dammit!

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Below is Harvey's letter to the commissioner. Though I have to admire Harvey for gunning at the right target for the right reason, I think these battles are meaningless. One day the market forces will be so great that JPM or whoever will be squeezed but the time does not seem to be now. Like the volatility in the silver chart so is the noise from Charlie Harvey GATA and our new silver mascot- the wtf? chimp

Chairman Gensler and fellow Commissioners:

Friday night saw the release of two very important reports on silver. The first report at 3:30 pm was the release of the COT report whereby the net increase in the short positions by the commercial bankers in silver increased

by a rather large 3000 contracts. Also, 1 1/2 hours later, we got the banking participation report for February whereby J.P.Morgan who holds the dominant short positions here, increased their net short position from 19,000 contracts to

25,000 contracts. Over the past several weeks, JPMorgan has steadily reduced their short positions by a rather large 11,000 contracts. This was probably due to the Commission's urging, kind of like moral suasion. Three months ago, JPMorgan had a net short

position of around 30,000 contracts. The fact that this bank has a huge short position lends credence to its constant manipulation on the silver market, a fact that we have brought to your attention many times over the past several years.

The new net short position of 25,000 contracts represents 125 million oz. of silver. Global production of silver including China is around 700 million oz. Thus 17.8% of global production is concentrated with JPMorgan on the short side. How on earth could you allow this

to happen?

You must be concerned as to the reason why JPMorgan has decided to increase its net short position by a further 30%. Ted Butler hypothesizes that this may be by a rogue trader who "went on his own" instead of the wishes of JPMorgan itself.

This must be examined closely and reported to all of us. The fact that the largest concentrated position in silver (on the short side) added another huge position should have thrown red flags all over the place.

It has been 2 and 1/2 years since the investigation into the silver manipulation began. We have asked one simple question with subsets that has yet to be answered:

In 2008, JPMorgan held a short concentrated position of 25% of global production in silver. How is this not manipulative? If not manipulative, then why? Are the actions of JPMorgan on their massive short position legal or illegal?

How is this massive short position in line with your published guidelines?

Today, JPMorgan has a short concentrated position of 17.8% of global production. Again, how is this not manipulative on pricing?

I know you have asked the public for their comments and from what I gather, a huge number of concerned investors have placed their comments with you over these past two months. Obviously, the will of the people must be addressed here and preserve the sanctity

of the markets.

I hope that you will look into this matter immediately and report your findings to all.

Sincerely,

Harvey B Organ BScPhm MBA

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

And now, for a total WTF moment in silver news.... You can't make this *h*t up because you can't even imagine it!

Just when you thought the Silver conspiracy theories couldn't get any more crazy, check out this bit of news just released today...

Charlie Sheen writes to the CFTC on imposing stricter position limits.

Watch this Financial Times video, these guys aren't even breaking out laughing while reporting this. FT VIDEO: http://video.ft.com/v/807153573001/N...rge-technology

It even made it to the Wall Street Journal... LOL
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/03/0...lver-investor/

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Short term correction in precious metals (??) - James Turk's blog

http://www.fgmr.com/trading-current-positions.html

[Kadriana]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

You're probably right and it was another website. I'm curious to go to a coin auction again soon and see if interest has picked up.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

My one "No Thanks" story happened about 2 months ago when I was in a collectibles shop and the manager (who knew about and sold silver coins) turned down my offer of a silver round at $4 below spot to pay for a book I wanted. I think in a few more months, he'll be of the mindset not to make that mistake again.

Reminds me of Mark Dice trying to sell a then $1,100 gold maple for $50 bucks (legal tender value) without success. Bubble alright:

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Wasn't kingsworld kind of talking down silver a month ago? Basically saying all the rumors about 100 oz. bars being in short supply are silly and the whole JP Morgan being short was a joke and all the shorts wasn't as big of a deal as people were making it out to be.

Hi Kadriana, I think you are thinking of the Financial Sense Newshour podcast with Jim Puplava (different website). I suggest people bookmarket this site as well. They put out more interviews than KWN, and I like their slightly more balanced approach. While I am at it, I also like The McAlvany Weekly Commentary podcast, they are less PM centric and better at the bigger picture - which will come in handy when we need red flag alerts pre-next market crash.

If you know of any more Internet based PM and Macro-economics podcast websites, please share them here as well! I can't get enough of these, and I like to weigh opinions from different sites so I can get a less biased perspective. Thanks in advance!

Also they (Financial Sense Newshour) weren't talking down silver, they are long silver and talk about it daily. They are long based only on fundamentals - which is good enough for me. They were just talking down the speculation that 100 oz bars were soon to be non-existant. To be honest I agreed with their conclusion, that it would only be temporary and only at select locations. I think it is normal to have temporary shortages of specific products at retailers, especially when demand picks up fast. As an example, Scotia Mocatta (largest Canadian bullion bank) ran out at that time, then got some more, and as of a couple of days ago are out again. My personal dealer at the time had at least several dozen 100 oz bars (I know because I inquired suggesting I was going to make a mega-purchase, and they said - no problem, we have them right here), but at the same time they were out of Silver Maples and back-ordered for at least 3-4 weeks. At some point, silver may run out for a longer period of time as the above ground supply gets eaten up by investors and commercials, but that will just move up the price to try to attain a new balance, eventually supply comes back. Also all the silver in the world hasn't been mined yet, so more will come from there over time as well, the only question is, at what price.

Please keep sharing your precious metal stories here. We're all in this together!

Adeptus

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Adeptus,

Referring to your earlier post, from my anecdotal experience ONLY, we are far from a Phase 3 "mania" in SILVER.

None of my family believes in it, one my friends who beleives in GOLD snorts at SILVER and says that "you have been reading too many bloggers".

The only colleagues who I could find kinship with in this regard were also loading up on ammunition and/or getting their homes ready to survive off the grid for months.


Any speaking of blogs and moving away from intangible stories to something more quantifiable, check out the following:


1) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klswV...el_video_title

David Morgan explains how when Sprott purchased $550M of Silver for PSLV, they were able to calculate in advance that it would 2 months to get delivery, and move the marktet 4$.

-------> According to Morgan, this is more or less what happened.


Takeaway of the blog: imagine what happens if a few billion $ goes to physical silver (although conversely, my fear is imagine the reverse as well!!)