silver train leaving the station?

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

The silver conspiracy (?) theory finally makes it to the New York times, albeit to an editor's blog, not necessarily front page news (yet).

A Conspiracy With a Silver Lining

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...ver-lining/?hp

Concluding paragraphs:

"Some two-and-a-half years later, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s investigation is still unresolved, and at least one commissioner — Bart Chilton — thinks that after interviewing more than 32 people and reviewing more than 40,000 documents, there has been enough investigating and not enough prosecuting. “More than two years ago, the agency began an investigation into silver markets,” Chilton said at a commission hearing last October. “I have been urging the agency to say something on the matter for months … I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.

What’s more, Chilton said in an interview last week, that “one participant” in the silver market still controlled 35 percent of the silver market as recently as a few months ago, “enough to move prices,” he said, and well above the 10 percent “position limits” the commission has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank financial reform law. Since that law’s passage last summer, the commodities exchanges have issued waivers permitting the ownership of silver positions above the limits the C.F.T.C. has proposed, and which were supposed to be in place by January of this year. Yet the waivers remain in place, and the big traders have not been penalized, much to Chilton’s frustration And the mystery deepens: last Thursday, the price of silver fell $1.50 per ounce in less than an hour before recovering. “This was robbery at its most obvious and most vindictive,” wrote Richard Guthrie, a London-based trader, in an e-mail to Chilton. “How many investors lost money and positions to the financial benefit of an elite few?

It’s getting harder and harder to continue to brush off Andrew Maguire’s claims as the rantings of a rogue trader with a nutty online following. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission should immediately release the files from its investigation into the supposed manipulation of the silver market so the public can determine whether JPMorganChase and HSBC did anything illegal, with or without the help of the Fed. In addition, the commission should start enforcing the 10 percent threshold on silver positions it has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank law. Basically, the other commissioners must join with Bart Chilton to do the job they are required to do: Protecting the sanctity of the markets and preventing the sorts of manipulation we’ve seen all too often."

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I have a feeling ZH borrowed the "news" from Silverseek.com. This was their March 2nd, 2011 article:
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299088560.php

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

That is my understanding as well: this is old news and referred to Uncirculated Eagles and not Bullion Eagles on top of that.

ZH dropped the ball on this.

but hey!
why squash a perfectly good rumor, esp when it stokes up the coals?

dont see any sign of shortage on:
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/cate...er+Eagles.aspx
(and 'only' 18820 for a monsterbox)
but are we getting frothy here or what?: 2010's at 37.64 / 2011's at 38.09,
and why would there be a diff in price tween 10/11's ? just cuz collectors have their fill of prev year?

i bailed out of my CDE yest (to redeploy/convert to UT lift tickets next month... ;)
anybody want to hazzard a read of 'the crystal ball' here?

[LargoWinch]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

isn't that a year old? It is 2011 now.

That is my understanding as well: this is old news and referred to Uncirculated Eagles and not Bullion Eagles on top of that.

ZH dropped the ball on this.

[aaron]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

isn't that a year old? It is 2011 now.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Barely 3 months into the year and the US mint runs out of Silver to produce Eagles. Hope you got yours, before premiums shoot up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sil...r-coin-product

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Interesting plan and trigger points to exchange silver for gold if the gold/silver ratio continues to decline.


http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/03...ver-plan-.html

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Jeptr,


"I think this good vs evil- evil being JP Morgan- is not the best investment approach. While the ride up is exciting, the ride down will be even more so."


I agree- also watching the recent CNBC "Fast Money" clip on silver was a surprise & bummer- anytime now, I feel like the shears will come out.

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Speculators will add more leaves to the trees which will see commercials shaking more leaves. It is a good idea to look at other commodities. For instance, the pullback in agriculture JJG may be starting too happen though I expect it to follow in earnest after market pullback in q2-q3 time frame. This may be a good macro and investment play.

I think this good vs evil- evil being JP Morgan- is not the best investment approach. While the ride up is exciting, the ride down will be even more so.

I reallocated my portfolio two weeks ago to less silver more gold as sentiment and price is gold favorable.

[Kadriana]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I do wonder if investment demand might go down. I know I feel like I've gotten all the silver I want. I was picking up the occasional Peace/Morgan for $18-20.50 but it seems like you can't get it below $25 anymore. I think I would prefer focusing funds in another area. It's hard buying silver at $34+ when you purchased most of it under $10.

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Article from zerohedge about CNBC clip talking about 130$ silver.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cnbc-140-silver

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

And now, here comes a likely short squeeze (!!!)

Source: http://jsmineset.com/

Dear Friends,
Between now and Monday, February 28th be prepared for panicked short sellers who cannot make delivery to try every trick in the book to buy back their short positions.

The following is information from Dr. Jim Decosta:
Here is the URL:
http://www.finra.org/Industry/Regula...+Rule+Filings)

Quote: There’s 3 new laws gaining attention in the NSS market reform arena: FINRA 4320 goes into effect on 2/28/11. It mandates 13 day buy-ins for open delivery failures FINALLY applying to shares of non-reporting corporations. FINRA 2010-043, also starting on 2/28/11 reinstates the “short sale exempt” (SSE) marking requirements for trade reporting and the OATS system. Those MMs accessing the bona fide MM exemption from executing pre-borrows or “locates” before admittedly naked short sales must now FORMALLY acknowledge the accessing of that universally-abused exemption. Being that these trades are theoretically being made to “inject liquidity” then the excuse to hide the related trade data from the public’s eyes goes out the window. You can’t have it both ways and claim the bona fide MM exemption and later claim that the related trade data needs to be kept secret because it might reveal a “proprietary trading strategy”.

Truly bona fide MMs that are able to legally access that universally-abused exemption cover their naked short position on the next downtick after their short sale when buy side liquidity is in need of being ejected as share prices fall. The 3rd new rule which is in effect now states that the offers and bids that MMs post must be of approximately the same size. No longer can the offers be of 1 million shares and the offsetting bid good for the minimum 5,000 shares.

The verbiage in 4320 is especially well done as it FINALLY puts the clearing firms that aid and abet this crime wave on the spot. With the FFETF, which is made up of 25 different agencies, now on the scene the transparency has increased markedly. You can imagine how critical the lack of transparency is to a crime involving selling nonexistent securities and then refusing to ever deliver that which you sold AFTER being allowed access to the funds of the investor being defrauded.

Here are the links to the rules SR-FINRA-2010-028 and SR-FINRA-2010-043:
www.finra.org/Industry/Regulation/RuleFilings/2010/P121522
Notice the part I marked in bold in the quote above:
"FINRA 4320 goes into effect on 2/28/11. It mandates 13 day buy-ins for open delivery failures FINALLY applying to shares of non-reporting corporations."

Got Silver? :-D

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I considered buying again at the end of January due to the correction back then... I consider it now to be a bull shaking... As an answer to dropthatcash, on February 2009, I had almost all my portfolio the way I devised it to be... I think now that I should have been buying more gold and silver not 2 years ago, but 3 to 6 years ago, when I was actively diversifying.

What exactly do you mean by"a bull shaking". Are you suggesting that the trend is still bullish, but that some bulls are being shaken out; or are you suggesting that the bull trend is over and about to be shaken downward?

From a supply/demand perspective, it sure looks to me that demand is far outstripping supply. In ~2.5 years, some 50% of the physical registered silver at the COMEX has been delivered upon.




Looking through the CTFC's COT reports and SLV records, we can gather the following additional data. We see some deterioration in SLV inventory but not substancial and we see a fairly flat COMEX customer inventory which if I understand correctly can be leased out at some low interest rate. But again, just look at the depletion of the "Registered" supply!

Date	SLV Ounces	Registered (COMEX)	Eligible (Customer)	Total COMEX Silver
12/9/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	60,312,806	108,066,244
12/10/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	59,304,144	107,057,582
12/13/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	58,058,490	105,811,928
12/14/2010	352,505,135	47,753,438	58,093,864	105,847,302
12/15/2010	352,505,135	47,748,539	57,798,005	105,546,544
12/16/2010	352,505,135	46,399,818	57,364,687	103,764,505
12/17/2010	352,505,135	46,364,937	58,868,981	105,233,918
12/20/2010	350,550,455	46,375,503	58,486,340	104,861,843
12/21/2010	350,550,455	46,375,503	58,799,170	105,174,673
12/22/2010	350,550,455	46,400,515	58,708,457	105,108,972
12/23/2010	350,550,455	46,390,545	58,718,427	105,108,972
12/27/2010	350,550,455	46,390,545	58,718,427	105,108,972
12/28/2010	350,550,455	46,222,826	58,262,845	104,485,671
12/29/2010	350,550,455	45,731,192	58,140,440	103,871,632
12/30/2010	350,550,455	45,736,399	58,970,760	104,707,159
12/31/2010	351,136,751	45,736,399	59,112,829	104,849,228
1/3/2011	351,136,751	45,716,392	58,831,239	104,547,631
1/4/2011	351,136,751	45,716,392	59,867,680	105,584,072
1/5/2011	350,995,721	45,660,850	60,106,574	105,767,424
1/6/2011	350,214,049	45,660,830	60,659,415	106,320,245
1/7/2011	348,504,166	44,890,889	59,651,052	104,541,941
1/10/2011	346,794,311	44,890,889	59,350,766	104,241,655
1/11/2011	344,840,267	44,890,889	59,348,752	104,239,641
1/12/2011	344,840,267	44,885,726	59,243,292	104,129,018
1/13/2011	344,840,267	45,052,028	59,607,405	104,659,433
1/14/2011	344,840,267	45,226,120	59,183,073	104,409,193
1/18/2011	340,346,233	44,839,053	59,523,496	104,362,549
1/19/2011	340,004,313	44,839,053	59,575,472	104,414,525
1/20/2011	338,441,267	44,839,053	59,520,341	104,359,394
1/21/2011	334,191,830	44,439,610	59,715,405	104,155,015
1/24/2011	336,878,179	44,439,610	60,668,205	105,107,815
1/25/2011	335,901,359	44,344,843	60,630,928	104,975,771
1/26/2011	335,901,359	44,243,741	60,597,179	104,840,920
1/27/2011	335,217,607	43,962,813	60,721,358	104,684,171
1/28/2011	335,217,607	43,493,063	61,192,116	104,685,179
1/31/2011	335,217,607	43,512,709	61,067,764	104,580,473
2/1/2011	334,533,895	43,467,229	59,949,225	103,416,454
2/2/2011	334,387,048	43,467,229	60,126,859	103,594,088
2/3/2011	333,410,344	43,402,181	60,126,859	103,529,040
2/4/2011	333,410,344	43,402,181	59,109,001	102,511,182
2/7/2011	333,410,344	43,189,200	60,116,370	103,305,570
2/8/2011	333,410,344	42,345,622	60,707,003	103,052,625
2/9/2011	333,410,344	42,174,112	61,056,350	103,230,462
2/10/2011	333,996,310	42,168,881	60,677,891	102,846,772
2/11/2011	333,996,310	41,924,524	60,499,172	102,423,696
2/14/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,838,531	102,763,055
2/15/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,913,050	102,837,574
2/16/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,610,739	102,535,263
2/17/2011	335,607,641	41,914,469	60,638,158	102,552,627
2/18/2011	335,607,641	41,914,469	60,459,810	102,374,279
2/22/2011	332,531,620	41,914,469	60,443,440	102,357,909
2/23/2011	340,001,630	41,914,469	60,450,699	102,365,168
2/24/2011	342,931,016	41,909,645	60,420,868	102,330,513
2/25/2011	342,931,016	43,169,476	59,759,523	102,928,999

Here's a more historic chart of the inventories of silver in Millions of Ounces from 1950 to 1999. See the pattern from 1990 to 1999 ? That is a MASSIVE deterioration in supply!



Here's the continuation of that chart from 1999 to ~2010. We learn from this chart that inventories have recovered "a bit" from 2000 to 2008, but have since begun to deminish again, and certainly have no way climbed back up to early 90's levels:



So long as the supply at the COMEX continues to be deminished, I'm LONG silver!

[ocelotl]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I remember having stopped buying silver at 200 MXN in late 2008 due to my analysis at that time... I considered buying again at the end of January due to the correction back then... I consider it now to be a bull shaking... As an answer to dropthatcash, on February 2009, I had almost all my portfolio the way I devised it to be... I think now that I should have been buying more gold and silver not 2 years ago, but 3 to 6 years ago, when I was actively diversifying.

[dropthatcash]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Knowing what you know today, where do you wish you'd have put 100% on your investment funds exactly two years ago? oil, gold, or a broad based stock index and if you missed making that trade, why?