silver train leaving the station?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Silver

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...charts_27.html
27 April 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Blythe Standing In the Cold Après Ski




Yesterday was options expiration and the precious metals were clubbed mercilessly and clumsily, with little attempt to hide it.

Today the metals markets rebounded strongly after a somewhat weak start.

As I had mentioned I came out of cash and bought the dip in the precious metals sector yesterday, rather heavily, running cash to effectively zero. There was picking up the fallen among those wild tigers, the silver miners, and in some size. Their beta is pretty impressive, and nice when it runs your way.

The buys in the stocks that had fallen to long term support were big fat targets. And they bounced with a vicious flourish today, gaining momentum steadily after the FOMC announcement.

I flipped the hedges early, and just let the metals run into the afternoon, trimming back into the close to raise some cash back again for more opportunistic buys. I like to get my money off the table and let the profits run.

So what next? The formation on the gold chart looks good, and the support on the correction helped to draw the cup of the inverse head and shoulders a little more firmly. Yes there will be draw downs and corrections along the way, but gold looks headed for 1590 and probably beyond, but one leg at a time.

Silver is a juggernaut. I had to force myself to buy heavily in that rugby scrum of a market yesterday and it paid off with one of my best one day gains for the last couple of years.

Thanks Blythe. You're the best, baby.

Ein Prosit, ein Prosit
Der Gemütlichkeit
Ein Prosit, ein Prosit
Der Gemütlichkeit.

OANS ZWOA DREI! G'SUFFA!

Ziggy zoggy ziggy zoggy oi oi oi

[Adeptus]

Silver

Here's the silver action based on Bernanke's speech today... FED credibility has now eroded to ZERO. Gold is up too to a new record high!

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

The below comments are in response to the silver vs gold discussion started on page 5 of part 2 EJ's latest article "Global Monetary Meltdown". I'm replying here so as to not derail that thread into a discussion that's not the main focus of the article.


I don't believe for a second that the 'masses' are really investing in silver (yet). I look around my circle of friends, family and work people, and less than 10% are even aware of what's happened to the price of silver. Maybe 2-5% have any PM investment at all, so I think we're far from mass euphoria. Further, if we consider the global physical inventories of silver available for investment purposes, it's not too hard to see how the price can still double, tripple or morefrom here. The COMEX currently claims they have 101 Million ounces of physical silver, of which only 35 Million is registered and capable of being delivered upon for futures contracts, the remaining 66 Million are allocated as "eligible" which means somebody (likely large banks) already have their name on it and it can't be used to settle futures contracts; however some of those large banks may very well intend on selling it to their customers (i.e. Scotia Moccatta who owns at least 7 of those 101 Million oz). Historically, that COMEX silver is delivered to the industry for all kinds of commercial uses: i.e. electronics, mirrors, photography, jewlery etc, and not so much for investment purposes. But lets use a round number of say 50 Million ounces that can get sold and delivered into the market as physical silver for purely crash-JP-Morgan speculators/investors. At $45/oz today that's $2.3 Billion worth. So all it would take is 230,000 people to buy $10,000 worth each. Does North America have 230,000 people willing to invest 10K into silver? For sure! Of course this isn't a linear equation... as demand escalates so does price... so maybe it will take 1 Million people to buy up all that COMEX silver between $50 to $150... then what? Then the paper markets collapse and physical costs go HYPER-bolic (this arguement would be true for North America but not necessarily for Europe who relies on the LBMA not the COMEX for physical delivery, and LBMA has its own inventories levels - I couldn't quickly find those numbers after searching for 10 mins, maybe somebody else can post them). Normally you could argue that physical never runs out as price just keeps going up until people stop buying, but that's in 1:1 ratio markets, we're talking 10:1 upwards of 100:1 ratios here with all the paper leverage - so physical will run out before the price goes up at a 90 degree angle. You can't come up with such an arguement for gold, because a) It's 30+ times the price b) There's over 1 TRILLION worth for investment purposes available (I think I actually read 3.3 to 6 Trillion somewhere). We're not going to run out of gold for investment purposes, but we're getting pretty close to running out of physical silver in the not too distant future.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Eric Townsend and Karl denninger said you can't eat silver.

LOL... and you can eat Federal Reserve Notes? Quick, somebody patent this new diet!! Oh wait, at the rate the Bernanke is printing them dollars, it could actually result in instant obesity! And you thought McDonalds was junk food.

[mliu_01]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Eric Townsend and Karl denninger said you can't eat silver.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

'History never repeats itself...
...but I sure love it when it rhymes!'

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And tonight, while Blythe sleeps through the closed London Markets...
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$49.70!!!!!!!

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People, meet the Hunt Brother's pet... apparently, they forgot to include him in the lawsuit!
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PS. Don't worry, the train has only now reached the Kennedy Space center, the lift off into the stratosphere will commence soon enough..ALL ABOARD!!!.. The 1980's inflation adjusted $48.70 peak = $127+ in 2011 dollars ;-)

[cjppjc]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I was told recently that the proofs were losing their premium. The uncirculated are doing great, but is the premium comming off the proofs at coin shops?

[ocelotl]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

What exactly do you mean by"a bull shaking". Are you suggesting that the trend is still bullish, but that some bulls are being shaken out; or are you suggesting that the bull trend is over and about to be shaken downward?

From a supply/demand perspective, it sure looks to me that demand is far outstripping supply. In ~2.5 years, some 50% of the physical registered silver at the COMEX has been delivered upon.




Looking through the CTFC's COT reports and SLV records, we can gather the following additional data. We see some deterioration in SLV inventory but not substancial and we see a fairly flat COMEX customer inventory which if I understand correctly can be leased out at some low interest rate. But again, just look at the depletion of the "Registered" supply!

Date	SLV Ounces	Registered (COMEX)	Eligible (Customer)	Total COMEX Silver
12/9/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	60,312,806	108,066,244
12/10/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	59,304,144	107,057,582
12/13/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	58,058,490	105,811,928
12/14/2010	352,505,135	47,753,438	58,093,864	105,847,302
12/15/2010	352,505,135	47,748,539	57,798,005	105,546,544
12/16/2010	352,505,135	46,399,818	57,364,687	103,764,505
12/17/2010	352,505,135	46,364,937	58,868,981	105,233,918
12/20/2010	350,550,455	46,375,503	58,486,340	104,861,843
12/21/2010	350,550,455	46,375,503	58,799,170	105,174,673
12/22/2010	350,550,455	46,400,515	58,708,457	105,108,972
12/23/2010	350,550,455	46,390,545	58,718,427	105,108,972
12/27/2010	350,550,455	46,390,545	58,718,427	105,108,972
12/28/2010	350,550,455	46,222,826	58,262,845	104,485,671
12/29/2010	350,550,455	45,731,192	58,140,440	103,871,632
12/30/2010	350,550,455	45,736,399	58,970,760	104,707,159
12/31/2010	351,136,751	45,736,399	59,112,829	104,849,228
1/3/2011	351,136,751	45,716,392	58,831,239	104,547,631
1/4/2011	351,136,751	45,716,392	59,867,680	105,584,072
1/5/2011	350,995,721	45,660,850	60,106,574	105,767,424
1/6/2011	350,214,049	45,660,830	60,659,415	106,320,245
1/7/2011	348,504,166	44,890,889	59,651,052	104,541,941
1/10/2011	346,794,311	44,890,889	59,350,766	104,241,655
1/11/2011	344,840,267	44,890,889	59,348,752	104,239,641
1/12/2011	344,840,267	44,885,726	59,243,292	104,129,018
1/13/2011	344,840,267	45,052,028	59,607,405	104,659,433
1/14/2011	344,840,267	45,226,120	59,183,073	104,409,193
1/18/2011	340,346,233	44,839,053	59,523,496	104,362,549
1/19/2011	340,004,313	44,839,053	59,575,472	104,414,525
1/20/2011	338,441,267	44,839,053	59,520,341	104,359,394
1/21/2011	334,191,830	44,439,610	59,715,405	104,155,015
1/24/2011	336,878,179	44,439,610	60,668,205	105,107,815
1/25/2011	335,901,359	44,344,843	60,630,928	104,975,771
1/26/2011	335,901,359	44,243,741	60,597,179	104,840,920
1/27/2011	335,217,607	43,962,813	60,721,358	104,684,171
1/28/2011	335,217,607	43,493,063	61,192,116	104,685,179
1/31/2011	335,217,607	43,512,709	61,067,764	104,580,473
2/1/2011	334,533,895	43,467,229	59,949,225	103,416,454
2/2/2011	334,387,048	43,467,229	60,126,859	103,594,088
2/3/2011	333,410,344	43,402,181	60,126,859	103,529,040
2/4/2011	333,410,344	43,402,181	59,109,001	102,511,182
2/7/2011	333,410,344	43,189,200	60,116,370	103,305,570
2/8/2011	333,410,344	42,345,622	60,707,003	103,052,625
2/9/2011	333,410,344	42,174,112	61,056,350	103,230,462
2/10/2011	333,996,310	42,168,881	60,677,891	102,846,772
2/11/2011	333,996,310	41,924,524	60,499,172	102,423,696
2/14/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,838,531	102,763,055
2/15/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,913,050	102,837,574
2/16/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,610,739	102,535,263
2/17/2011	335,607,641	41,914,469	60,638,158	102,552,627
2/18/2011	335,607,641	41,914,469	60,459,810	102,374,279
2/22/2011	332,531,620	41,914,469	60,443,440	102,357,909
2/23/2011	340,001,630	41,914,469	60,450,699	102,365,168
2/24/2011	342,931,016	41,909,645	60,420,868	102,330,513
2/25/2011	342,931,016	43,169,476	59,759,523	102,928,999

Here's a more historic chart of the inventories of silver in Millions of Ounces from 1950 to 1999. See the pattern from 1990 to 1999 ? That is a MASSIVE deterioration in supply!



Here's the continuation of that chart from 1999 to ~2010. We learn from this chart that inventories have recovered "a bit" from 2000 to 2008, but have since begun to deminish again, and certainly have no way climbed back up to early 90's levels:



So long as the supply at the COMEX continues to be deminished, I'm LONG silver!

Sorry for not explaining myself. I was trying to say that we were still in the bullish trend and that some of the weakest bulls could be shaken out. Even when since the trend has recovered and there are people out there talking about it as getting parabolic, we still have some room to go before getting out of silver. As I posted somewhere else, we have to pay some attention to be sure of getting out at an appropriate moment, so that we don't have to worry about selling more than a kilo at a time or so... Well, that was my approach when buying, and I'm still Long silver.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Well, I am starting to see a dramatic difference in my area on how people look at silver and gold. A couple months ago, there was no issue in getting junk silver for below spot. Now, junk silver is marked up by 10-20% in a lot of areas. There is no longer talk that silver is at it's highs or in for a major correction. People are starting to assume it's going to be higher this week than last week.

prolly means the 'smart' money is about to unload?
(mode=cynical; power-level=FULL)

what does mr adeptus think these daze?
and wheres Fondo?

eye note an uptick here:

Today 5d 1m 3m 1y 5y 10y
	52wk high:	23.46
	52wk low:	14.03
	EPS:	N/A
	PE:	N/A
	Dividend:	0.01
	Yield:	0.042955
	Market Cap:	5.92 b
	Volume:	2.48 m

[cjppjc]

Re: Silver Train...

Join the club, although I didn't have the resources to buy much at 12. Got in a bit later, but still wish I had more.

But most things look silly in retrospect. You could probably find something that has outperformed silver using today's available data (although nothing comes right to mind...). The real question now is: Will you feel the same way later about silver at ~$40?

I had this exact conversation with a friend last night. I quoted him "I'm not buying here at $25." "I'm not buying here at $35." You get the idea. To be fair he bought lower, he just never added to his position. He is waiting for the big selloff. Maybe it comes at 53 and takes it down to 38. Who knows.

[DSpencer]

Re: Silver Train...

I wish I bought more. I had a thread here from a year and half ago where I was deciding whether to buy silver at $12 . Silly in retrospect.

Join the club, although I didn't have the resources to buy much at 12. Got in a bit later, but still wish I had more.

But most things look silly in retrospect. You could probably find something that has outperformed silver using today's available data (although nothing comes right to mind...). The real question now is: Will you feel the same way later about silver at ~$40?

[aaron]

Re: Silver Train...

I wish I bought more. I had a thread here from a year and half ago where I was deciding whether to buy silver at $12 . Silly in retrospect.

[Kadriana]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Well, I am starting to see a dramatic difference in my area on how people look at silver and gold. A couple months ago, there was no issue in getting junk silver for below spot. Now, junk silver is marked up by 10-20% in a lot of areas. There is no longer talk that silver is at it's highs or in for a major correction. People are starting to assume it's going to be higher this week than last week.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver Train...

Silver train leaving the station? check

Silver holders pissing their pants? check

(yes it's a joke ... I knew what I was getting into with my Silver position, greater than 50% allocation - whenever I write about Silver I always prefix a standard disclamer, "if you're into high risk and volatility ... (and occasionally pissing your pants) ... " )

I don't check the price sometimes for a week, and sleep OK, even on the worst downdrafts, so I must be OK with it.

[Master Shake]

Re: Silver Train...

Can I do an end run around "cash for gold". They pay out terribly. Post to craig's list and promise to beat cash for gold
by 30%?
.

I've posted ads on craigslist to buy gold and silver coins and response has been low. I've also bought from listings there, most recently picking up a 1903 German 10 mark gold coin for under spot. I always meet the seller at a public location - Starbucks, Mickey D's, public library, etc.

Check out Auction Zip for local auctions of coins in your area.