silver train leaving the station?

[metalman]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

I don't normally follow Silver but as I'm looking at some Silver charts here, even a relative "latecomer" who bought in mid Feb is still about even(?) Only the suckers who jumped on board in the last few months are down any appreciable amount. Especially those who bought in the last month. Not good but hardly the "disaster" I was expecting from all the posts about the death of silver here. (Those who bought a year ago are still up nearly 100%.)

& remain so for another 2 - 3 weeks...

[flintlock]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

I don't normally follow Silver but as I'm looking at some Silver charts here, even a relative "latecomer" who bought in mid Feb is still about even(?) Only the suckers who jumped on board in the last few months are down any appreciable amount. Especially those who bought in the last month. Not good but hardly the "disaster" I was expecting from all the posts about the death of silver here. (Those who bought a year ago are still up nearly 100%.)

[Adeptus]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

silver train left the station... then it left the tracks...

LOL !!!!!!

Can't wait to see your picture of the US dollar in a couple of years :-)

[c1ue]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

So now 2013 is the time for Bearmagedon? The more people who come on board that timeline the less I think it will go down that way.

IMO, 2013 is the US-centric view on how the brown stuff hits the rotary impeller.

It is that in 2013, whoever is then President will be forced to undertake a Volcker interest rate spike/Nixon Bretton Woods abrogation type intervention.

However, it is far from clear that the US still holds the whip hand in this situation.

As the iTulip thesis clearly articulates: there are plenty of possible nearer term triggers for an acceleration of events.

Whatever happens - what is absolutely clear is that the 'recovery' we are experiencing now is anything but. There are no clear triggers for near or medium term growth - whether in jobs or anything except prices.

[metalman]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

hope springs eternal...

silver train left the station... then it left the tracks...



who coulda known?

[Kadriana]

Re: Silver

what is your buy back in rationale and trigger - a price or a time frame? (question for everyone)

For me it's more of a time frame. I look at it as an insurance policy, along with gold, in case we do see increased inflation. Also, the industrial uses are increasing and I know more people around me that are looking into solar panels. I don't have that much tied up in silver though.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

I may buy down at 27-30 and then buy more in low 20s.

I forgot to add my rationale- the unwinding of the value of the dollar.

I like the 2000 plus year long term chart for gold and silver. PMs (gold and silver) been used as a currency. Besides Utah there are 12 states proposing use of gold and silver as alternate forms of currency.

Whether states continue or not, divergence between paper and physical will continue. We got glimpses of it during Carter admin. Appliance and furniture stores accepted two forms of money 1) the us dollar 2) silver or gold.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Shiny

Here is one of the better articles. Though the author may have bias because os his long position in SIVR, he lays out all the facts in a balanced approach.
Essentially most of the moving parts are in this article. It all boils down to no change in long term fundamentals and a greater opportunity in the near future.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2686...-low-can-it-go
Joe

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver

what is your buy back in rationale and trigger - a price or a time frame? (question for everyone)

What's even better news is public sentiment is at 54% a ten month low. The COT shows a commercial net short position of 42K contracts and open interest of 132K contracts.The short position is close to a two year low while open interest is 17% off the high.

May take a few weeks into June to bottom.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Broke through $33 this morning, at $32.59 right now.

What's even better news is public sentiment is at 54% a ten month low. The COT shows a commercial net short position of 42K contracts and open interest of 132K contracts.The short position is close to a two year low while open interest is 17% off the high.

May take a few weeks into June to bottom.

[Chomsky]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

Broke through $33 this morning, at $32.59 right now.

[shiny!]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

Martin Armstrong wrote a short paper about the silver crash forecasting two possibilities very similar to EJ's forecast. He didn't call it ahead of time like EJ did, but he does have some pretty specific turn dates to watch. Well worth a read IMHO:

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The Silver Crash of 2011 05-06-2011.pdf

I agree with you about the increasing and increasingly unmanageable complexity. It's like a disease, not just in FIRE, but in every aspect of our society. It's insane!

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

ok forgive me for my "too exact comment." looking back earlier in this thread around feb 18th i did say this precious metals market has another few years of life in it- and for those who were in despair on silver not retesting the January 26th low 3 months ago, I mentioned there will be significant volatility from February on giving them another opportunity to buy. The fun has just begun.

[goadam1]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

So now 2013 is the time for Bearmagedon? The more people who come on board that timeline the less I think it will go down that way.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.