Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Always like to hear new ideas about how to play some scenario or other to preserve wealth and get some returns, should that scenario actually unfold.
Do you have thoughts about what may be closer to a sure thing in the turbulent times ahead?

The primary political division at the moment are international capitalists that have benefitted from USD imperialism and domestic industry that has been sidelined due to an overvalued dollar since the 1970s. The rampant shuttering of hedge funds is a great example of all of this. So too is the rise of manufacturing.

In the near-term I believe the following to be true:
1) Decline in value of the USD versus global commodities, volatility versus other currencies.
2) A formalized exchange of US denominated sovereign debt with a UN controlled reserve currency unit, tied to vast domestic infrastructure spending.
3) Increased domestic manufacturing to meet domestic demand as Chinese produced goods become too expensive. Due to insufficient infrastructure spending, there will be a lag for this to meet demand, with investment opportunities.
4) The US has positioned itself as the world's primary holder of oil and natural gas. In time, these natural resources will be factored into the exchange rate calculations of the coming Bancor or equivalent. In the long-term, gas will become more expensive and the continued migration to cities will present investment opportunities in real estate.
5) The banking system will be radically reformed at some point. Ceding monetary sovereignty to the UN will force both the government and banks to limit their money creation based on variables factored into the Bancor valuation. Banking will function much more like libertarian propaganda describes, as it was created in the early post-war era when it was expected the World Bank and IMF would actually function as intended. Banks and governments will take out "loans" from som UN authority, which will limit their money creation.
6) The biggest demand driver for monetary expansion is population growth. You can expect the US to have an immigration policy similar to most other countries of the world. Russian and China will not tolerate unlimited immigration in the US as it allows for an unfair devaluation. Many industries rely on slave labor from illegal immigrants, and this will have broad structural effects.
7) The ultimate goal of this monetary system is to break up the world into "smaller units of government" as Ron Paultard constantly says. In the future, we will have many smaller, autonomous states that have their own language, customs, and even theocratic controls, but they will not be monetarily sovereign. It is my opinion that the canary in the coal mine is Catalonia. When Catalonia is "independent", the Bancor will be coming your way.
8) investment advice: Invest in businesses if you can. Buy real estate local to you. If you must buy stocks, buy real, domestic industries. Treasuries are safe, and will in time be issued in Bancors or similar, as China has done with SDRs.
9) My belief is that gold possession and forex trading will be banned within the next 10 years.
10) My belief is that Trump is a Manchurian candidate, like Nixon. Both are unlikable, plausibly corrupt, and distract the masses from the titanic monetary changes happening today. If Trump is impeached, all bets are off in the short term.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

so you're one of those conspiracy minded people who think there's no gold in fort knox? the u.s. has no gold reserves?
and if it does, why?


as for other cb's
here, let me google that for you!

Oh you're so clever. And what is the first link? Forbes? As in Steve Forbes, the moron who has been campaigning for a balanced budget amendment and flat tax for the past 30 years? The entire magazine is a joke. As I said, the mythology of gold, and the call for a balanced budget amendment, is fundamentally propaganda to delude the masses into believing money is a scarce commodity.

Do you believe in a balanced budget amendment? If so, why? Do you believe the government has to tax in order to raise revenue to spend? If so, explain to us where money comes from.

learn a little history. the democrats refused a national healthcare proposal presented by pres. nixon [far better than obamacare] because they were convinced they'd do better after the next election. however, after the election of jimmy carter, the powell letter [lewis powell, who later became a supreme court justice - homework: look up "powell letter"] led to the organization of republican and conservative groups, business roundtables, etc, such that no healthcare plan could be passed by the democratic congress. the real squeeze began with volcker, who saved the dollar and slayed the '70s inflation wave- his double dip recession imposed true austerity. reagan's dismissal of the air controllers rang the bell for ongoing anti-union legislation. clinton was late to the game, but has to take "credit" for deregulating the banking system and killing glass steagal. the surpluses were the product of capital gains generated by the dot com bubble.

Umm, you are ignoring the Nixon Shock, and the fact monetary expansion from that point onward was about US imperialism. The Clinton surplus years served a very specific purpose in the grand scheme of USD imperialism, but no time to discuss.

just did a quick itulip site search for "bancor"- the first hit was dated april, '09, not quite 10 years ago. [there may have been earlier uses- that was just the first hit generated.] we've been around this block many, many times. you should treat people here with more respect, be less strident, and evince less conviction that you are here to enlighten us all. [you may continue to believe that, but harangues are not good methodology.]

Point taken, I will be more respectful.

and you would truly impress me if you could address each of the questions i posed for you. sticking your fingers in your ears and saying "nya, nya, it's not true!" isn't really a very convincing response. read the available public information about cb's gold purchases. another example- the reserve bank of india bought iirc 10tons in '18 after many years out of the market. saying "it's not true!" doesn't impress.[/QUOTE]

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Being an English citizen, I do understand the rule of law that makes it illegal to represent oneself as a well recognised person of status; A member of the House of Lords; when, in all probability you are nothing of the sort. If you are a member of the House of Lords, please fully identify yourself; if you do not do so, I will have no option but to believe that you are fraudulently identifying yourself as a "Lord" and as such and will have no option but to report you to the authorities. I must add that I did, some years ago, through a direct telephone conversation with the then Keeper of the Rolls, Lord Denning, gain direct confirmation that anyone in possession of knowledge of law breaking has a duty to report such to the police. So, believe me, I will report you.

Please, by all means, do report me to the police. Your entire post is yet another example of how goldbugs are INSANE.

You don't really seem to understand the ledger system of blockchain technology, and how it can be used to rebalance trade much more quickly than other mechanisms. Had you not begun with this bizarre threat, I'd probably elucidate further. But, I can't stop laughing. As well you can't name a single society that was truly sovereign that collapsed due to unconstrained issuance of money. In fact, the only examples you can probably cite are those that were created by your vile empire. Anyone who repeats THAT lie, is just not worth debating.

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

And I know basement dwellers who still horde comic books.

At the end of the day, gold is not legal tender. And if history is any guide, in the unlikely event gold hoarding negatively impacts the economy, possession of it will simply be banned as it was under Roosevelt as part of the New Deal.

If you have a "deep and subtle understanding of the political nature of money" that means you also have a deep and subtle understanding of the political nature of banking. That is, you should know that banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/work...y-and-evidence

Banks create money from nothing with a future interest obligation attached, with the debt adjudicated and enforced in civil court.

Putting aside international flows of funds, even domestically - how exactly do you propose dealing with the exponential increase in demand for money to service existing debts when your monetary system is based on some garbage you dig up from the ground? I would be very interested in your answer.

Being an English citizen, I do understand the rule of law that makes it illegal to represent oneself as a well recognised person of status; A member of the House of Lords; when, in all probability you are nothing of the sort. If you are a member of the House of Lords, please fully identify yourself; if you do not do so, I will have no option but to believe that you are fraudulently identifying yourself as a "Lord" and as such and will have no option but to report you to the authorities. I must add that I did, some years ago, through a direct telephone conversation with the then Keeper of the Rolls, Lord Denning, gain direct confirmation that anyone in possession of knowledge of law breaking has a duty to report such to the police. So, believe me, I will report you.

Turning to the BoE link above makes for interesting reading as it confirms something that has long been known to all of us here on iTulip, the trend towards removing all constraints on bank lending.

"We will argue that several of these have their origin in the underlying conceptual and modeling framework, which we will refer to as the intermediation of loanable funds (ILF) model. We will then argue that it is possible to address these shortcomings through the use of the alternative financing through money creation (FMC) model. We emphasize at the outset that FMC models do not propose to challenge but rather to use the many advances that have been made in the modelling of financial institutions themselves, because the crucial difference between ILF and FMC models is not found in the optimization problems of financial institutions but in the budget constraints of their customers."

Again, as a member of the Long Term Infrastructure Investors Association and thus an attendee at many of their recent conferences, I am also well aware that there is, what one might describe, as grave concern about the need to find sources of funds to drive forward some $trillions of perceived need. A good example being the massive investment needs driven by the French city of Paris setting into motion the doubling of the extent of the Paris Metro; or, again the sudden realisation that climate change will require more $trillions of investment.

So, as I see it, your underlying message opens the door to unlimited money creation using blockchain technology to combine all nationally created money into one single blockchain entry to avoid any further constraint upon government spending; that from now onwards all the worlds government spending will be in bancors and thus unconstrained.

My understanding of the role of Gold remains that many centuries of history teaches that unconstrained issuance of money ends in the collapse of the economies involved and as such, Gold is the only commodity that has historically shown itself to be the asset of last resort.

[vt]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Everything that has declined in price is not made by slave labor.

Software is made here overwhelmingly.

New cars are primary from the U.S., Germany, Japan, and Korea. This is not slave labor.

There are many products made in the U.S.

https://blog.cheapism.com/products-made-in-usa-16283/

Boeing airplanes are made here, as are almost all of our defense products.

Healthcare is turning into an oligarchy of hospital chains working with a handful giant insurance companies and the government
creating an unfathomable monster that defies rational costs to the consumer.

Education is a monopoly of teacher unions allied with captive politicians in most communities.

Competition and innovation lowers costs. Anti competitive regulation, rules, and practice can be found not only in government but in corporations,
industry groups, and local business associations.

[rjwjr]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

If anyone tells you it's too complicated to explain, it's a scam.

Reminds me of an advertisement I heard on AM radio over the holidays that made me laugh; "Prices so low that we're not allowed to say them on the radio!"

I also like the oft used; "...savings up to 40%, or more!" Which is it? Is it up to 40% or is it more? It can't logically be both.

What's sad is that these work on people.

[rjwjr]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Yes, if you make a $1K investment in VirZOOM via WeFunder you receive a $1K SAFE Note and a 5-year iTulip subscription.

Invested. Looking forward to EJ's missives for another 5 years.

[jk]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

My answer to your questions about central banks buying and/or selling gold is that it simply isn't true and that it is propaganda. .

so you're one of those conspiracy minded people who think there's no gold in fort knox? the u.s. has no gold reserves?
and if it does, why?


as for other cb's
here, let me google that for you!

for the man on the ground, it has been fiscal austerity since the Clinton surplus years when billions were sucked out of the economy and the masses could only turn to banks to increase the money supply.

learn a little history. the democrats refused a national healthcare proposal presented by pres. nixon [far better than obamacare] because they were convinced they'd do better after the next election. however, after the election of jimmy carter, the powell letter [lewis powell, who later became a supreme court justice - homework: look up "powell letter"] led to the organization of republican and conservative groups, business roundtables, etc, such that no healthcare plan could be passed by the democratic congress. the real squeeze began with volcker, who saved the dollar and slayed the '70s inflation wave- his double dip recession imposed true austerity. reagan's dismissal of the air controllers rang the bell for ongoing anti-union legislation. clinton was late to the game, but has to take "credit" for deregulating the banking system and killing glass steagal. the surpluses were the product of capital gains generated by the dot com bubble.

you really ought to read some earlier threads. this community was resurrected in '06 after initially existing around '99. there have been many long and detailed discussions of monetary policy, regulatory policy, fiat currency systems, and .. yes... keynes and hayak too of course.

just did a quick itulip site search for "bancor"- the first hit was dated april, '09, not quite 10 years ago. [there may have been earlier uses- that was just the first hit generated.] we've been around this block many, many times. you should treat people here with more respect, be less strident, and evince less conviction that you are here to enlighten us all. [you may continue to believe that, but harangues are not good methodology.]

and you would truly impress me if you could address each of the questions i posed for you. sticking your fingers in your ears and saying "nya, nya, it's not true!" isn't really a very convincing response. read the available public information about cb's gold purchases. another example- the reserve bank of india bought iirc 10tons in '18 after many years out of the market. saying "it's not true!" doesn't impress.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

..in these turbulent times ahead, I think it is wise to impress upon people how divisive gold has been throughout history. It is very far from a sure thing...

Always like to hear new ideas about how to play some scenario or other to preserve wealth and get some returns, should that scenario actually unfold.
Do you have thoughts about what may be closer to a sure thing in the turbulent times ahead?

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

I'm still confident it has value and I can exchange it very easily for federal reserve notes, yen, or euros at nearly the published spot price.
People buy any number of expensive highly valuable things as an investment. One of mine is gold.

Buying gold is not an investment. That's speculation. There is a big difference. But your point is taken, and I wish you well.

You're free to use your money as you see fit, but in these turbulent times ahead, I think it is wise to impress upon people how divisive gold has been throughout history. It is very far from a sure thing.

Politically, it prevents people from seeing the mechanics of this transition to the Bancor.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

I think we're looking ultimately at the usd no longer being THE reserve currency, but A reserve currency, along with some other[s]. the sdr? maybe. or another neutral asset, gold but not at a fixed value, i.e. not a gold STANDARD. instead currencies can float against gold, but the u.s. will no longer have its exorbitant privilege.

my current notion of how things unfold:

i think there's a 2 step process.

step 1 - global recession, rates down [=>ust up], usd up, equities down.

step 2 - fed prints, NOMINAL rates up but real rates neg, usd down, high quality equities UP, gold up sharply

timing is hard but i think we're still in early step 1

I did not see this.

The USD is already under pressure. Why do we have talk of "trade wars"? Why are we imposing tariffs? Why is manufacturing employment higher than it has been in decades? You are not seeing the forest through the trees as your entire adult life has been spend profiting from the rise of the American Empire, which you at least recognize is coming to an end.

The fed will never print - and hasn't, ever really. That's libertarian nonsense. Yes, yes, asset bubbles - but for the man on the ground, it has been fiscal austerity since the Clinton surplus years when billions were sucked out of the economy and the masses could only turn to banks to increase the money supply. 95% of all United States Dollars in existence were created by banks in the form of "new money loans" as defined by FIRREA. Central banks have much less influence over money creation than most people realize (see the Bank of England paper on how money creation in the modern economy works).

What will happen is the US debt will be redenominated as Bancors or something similar, and loans from the UN's new agency will be spent on infrastructure. Once forex trading is banned once again, I predict gold ownership will also be banned. It is the simplest way to get people to focus on investment and get away from speculation. This is a more complicated subject and I'm spent. But you will note that supranational banks are all infrastructure investment banks.

That is not a coincidence.

I also predict blockchain technology will be incorporated into the coming Bancor, another reason gold will be banned. Blockchain technology allows for us to easily prevent balance of payment issues. The blockchain ledger can be aggregated into a supranational database with relative ease.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

And I know basement dwellers who still horde comic books.

At the end of the day, gold is not legal tender. And if history is any guide, in the unlikely event gold hoarding negatively impacts the economy, possession of it will simply be banned as it was under Roosevelt as part of the New Deal.

If you have a "deep and subtle understanding of the political nature of money" that means you also have a deep and subtle understanding of the political nature of banking. That is, you should know that banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/work...y-and-evidence

Banks create money from nothing with a future interest obligation attached, with the debt adjudicated and enforced in civil court.

Putting aside international flows of funds, even domestically - how exactly do you propose dealing with the exponential increase in demand for money to service existing debts when your monetary system is based on some garbage you dig up from the ground? I would be very interested in your answer.

You make a good argument against a case I did not advocate.
I hope I didn't imply we should adopt a hard gold standard. If I gave you that impression I apologize.
That' not my position, and so I can't defend it. Sorry to disappoint you on that.

I did though say I like owning gold as part of my portfolio, and I expect to profit from it.
You are right that gold is not declared to be legal tender "...for all debts public and private".
I'm still confident it has value and I can exchange it very easily for federal reserve notes, yen, or euros at nearly the published spot price.
People buy any number of expensive highly valuable things as an investment. One of mine is gold.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

you obviously did not read my earlier post. i specifically said i did not think a gold standard, i.e. fixed values for currencies vs gold, could or would be created. instead i said the u.s.d. would lose the u.s.'s exorbitant privilege by no longer being THE reserve asset. i think it will continue to be A reserve asset. and i also think there will be a neutral reserve asset, perhaps the sdr, perhaps the sdr with a commodity or gold component, perhaps just gold but at a floating price. a floating neutral asset is not a STANDARD.

btw, you did not answer any of the questions i posed for you.

because you have not answered my questions, you are losing the respect i accord to all members here until they prove otherwise. please answer my questions instead of reiterating your ideology.

btw i have been investing over 40 years. i sidestepped the crashes of '87 and that of '00 and '07. i have traded commodities, currencies, indices, stocks, bonds and options. i didn't buy substantial gold position until about 2003 or 4, when i bought at $380/oz, so i have not always thought it a worthy asset. i have done fairly well over the years. so i'll add another question:

what is your experience in the way of investing, and how are you doing with it?

I can find nothing particularly substantive regarding gold holdings or actions by central banks. My answer to your questions about central banks buying and/or selling gold is that it simply isn't true and that it is propaganda. Libertarianism, the foundation of which is the scarcity theory of money, was from the beginning a post-war propaganda exercise. That shady sites like seeking alpha and zero hedge talk about this stuff is not proof. So, to your questions, I dispute the premise.

I am fine without actual documentation of your claims, as long as you can provide a reasonable argument as to what the function of these gold holdings are. It is great you accept that a more functional reserve currency unit that takes into account actual human variables is the future, but I still fail to see what role gold has in this scheme. Gold simply isn't neutral for the simple reason inclusion of it unfairly benefits those who have gold. As I said, this was the cause of the American Revolution. You presumably live in the United States of America, a country that got along just fine for quite some time without having any access to domestic gold.

My experience is exclusively in real estate development. I do real investing - building products that people want. I don't do that much speculation, except with a few land plays here and there. My particular interest in this subject is we are seeing a tremendous amount of foreign dollars flooding the country and buying real estate.I have made quite a bit of money from that alone. But when it comes to financial instruments, I fully admit - it is not my forte.

You've ridden the wave of USD hegemony since the Nixon Shock, just like a huge number of people in your generation have. While I applaud your success, you were just born at the right time.

[jk]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

You seem to be misinformed as to the purpose of central banks. Of course the holdings of USD have held steady and declined - as I said, we are transitioning to a Bancor system. It is insane to think that Central Banks are literally going to return to the original Bretton Woods System - because it didn't work for all the reasons Triffin predicted.Why would you possibly believe today, things are going to be any different than it was every other time a gold standard has been tried?

You won't find any serious news stories about China or Russia advocating a return to a gold standard. But you will find a number of articles like this one.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-c...-idUKKCN12Q0WJ

Your points are goldbug conspiracy theories, and have no relevance to exchange rates today or in the future. And they have no relevance to a speculator, except perhaps in the short term. And the proof of this is that you have no real end-game here with these purported facts. The only conclusion one can have is you want to return to a British Empire/Bretton Woods Gold Standard. But you do not explain to us how or why things will be different this time.

And that means you honestly don't know. You're repeating this nonsense because you are a gold speculator, and you think this means you can profit.

you obviously did not read my earlier post. i specifically said i did not think a gold standard, i.e. fixed values for currencies vs gold, could or would be created. instead i said the u.s.d. would lose the u.s.'s exorbitant privilege by no longer being THE reserve asset. i think it will continue to be A reserve asset. and i also think there will be a neutral reserve asset, perhaps the sdr, perhaps the sdr with a commodity or gold component, perhaps just gold but at a floating price. a floating neutral asset is not a STANDARD.

btw, you did not answer any of the questions i posed for you.

because you have not answered my questions, you are losing the respect i accord to all members here until they prove otherwise. please answer my questions instead of reiterating your ideology.

btw i have been investing over 40 years. i sidestepped the crashes of '87 and that of '00 and '07. i have traded commodities, currencies, indices, stocks, bonds and options. i didn't buy substantial gold position until about 2003 or 4, when i bought at $380/oz, so i have not always thought it a worthy asset. i have done fairly well over the years. so i'll add another question:

what is your experience in the way of investing, and how are you doing with it?

btw: ever hear of ray dalio?World's Largest Hedge Fund Manager Sees Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

1. foreign cb's ceased increasing their usd treasury holdings in 2013. they have been buying gold in quantity. russia is the most extreme example, basically rid of all usd instruments and using the proceeds to buy gold. but also kazakhstan,hungary, china and a bunch of others. india sidestepped the last round of sanctions on iran by paying in gold via a turkish cutout. european gov'ts have been asking that the gold held in their name in nyc be shipped to them for their own domestic storage. why do you suppose all these cb's persist in buying and reclaiming the barbaric relic?

2. gordon brown established the bottom for gold by selling the uk's holdings. why does the us persist in holding gold?

3. in 2017 the comex moved 50 tons of physical gold. the shanghai exchange moved 50tons PER WEEK. please explain.

4. the uk looks to have a decent balance of payments in recent months. turns out their exports include a lot of physical gold, which is exported to switzerland and then on to asia. the uk has no gold mines. please explain.

You seem to be misinformed as to the purpose of central banks. Of course the holdings of USD have held steady and declined - as I said, we are transitioning to a Bancor system. It is insane to think that Central Banks are literally going to return to the original Bretton Woods System - because it didn't work for all the reasons Triffin predicted.Why would you possibly believe today, things are going to be any different than it was every other time a gold standard has been tried?

You won't find any serious news stories about China or Russia advocating a return to a gold standard. But you will find a number of articles like this one.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-c...-idUKKCN12Q0WJ

Your points are goldbug conspiracy theories, and have no relevance to exchange rates today or in the future. And they have no relevance to a speculator, except perhaps in the short term. And the proof of this is that you have no real end-game here with these purported facts. The only conclusion one can have is you want to return to a British Empire/Bretton Woods Gold Standard. But you do not explain to us how or why things will be different this time.

And that means you honestly don't know. You're repeating this nonsense because you are a gold speculator, and you think this means you can profit.