Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

[Ellen Z]

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[GRG55]

Re: wealth effect.

if you say low rates make capital easier to obtain, yes that promotes growth but not via asset prices.
there is no mechanism for higher asset prices per se to promote growth other than via the wealth effect increasing demand.

Not sure if your definition of "wealth effect" is inclusive of this, but increasing asset prices allow the collateralizing of increasing credit (for example, re-financing mortgages which frees up cash and credit to buy more property).

[jk]

Re: wealth effect.

I think the question here is the FED directly supporting asset prices to promote economic growth.

if you say low rates make capital easier to obtain, yes that promotes growth but not via asset prices.
there is no mechanism for higher asset prices per se to promote growth other than via the wealth effect increasing demand.

[Polish_Silver]

wealth effect.

1.

isn't this "the wealth effect" which has indeed been discussed as the mechanism by which qe stimulates the economy?

.

I think the "wealth effect" is the stimulus caused by rising asset prices, regardless of cause.

I think the question here is the FED directly supporting asset prices to promote economic growth.

[Polish_Silver]

EJ’s Secret Message

Referring back to the Asset Price Inflation Peaks chart, today all the antecedents of the past two such events are present in extremis.

The word extremis is extremely rare.
So why is EJ using it?

Because it will remind bugs of the “famous” Greenspan quote:

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."

https://taxfreegold.co.uk/greenspan.html

EJ wants mainstream respectability, so he will not use the four letter G-word.

But if he really believes that:

“Further fueling investor angst is the sense that price levels across many asset classes are growing to increasingly alarming and distorted proportions, including housing, ETFs, stocks, and bonds; debt taken on over the period is unsustainable and in some cases quite perverse, notably student debt.”

and also:

The result of the application of long-bond price fixing is a global economy cut loose from its moorings, operating for the first time in history without a market rate of interest that can be confirmed by market participants at any point in time.

Then There is not much left but one asset that cannot be devalued by a decision to produce more of it.

God is done making GXXX.

[seobook]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

On some of the entity association stuff Google still has major, major misses.

Consider the image used here on original CHIPS (california highway patrol) TV series.



If an issue doesn't draw embarrassments or complaints then fixing it is not a major priority, as they want to have scalable algorithms rather than tons of manual overrides.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

is this true?

Pretty much. If not scrubbed, then redirected. They talk about it openly. Typical thing Rand would be interested in. They floated a press balloon about doing similarly with neo-nazis. Got them a bunch of flak from places like RT and Zerocred saying they'd be censoring conservatives. So they settled on putting a warning up and disabling comments etc. if it gets reported enough, but not scrubbing or harder measures like redirecting.

First point being, never trust the damned search bar. I agree with others here on that. But second point being political correctness cuts both ways. If your brand of political violence is popular in a given country, they go easier on it than if it's unpopular. Path of least resistance.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

I cannot know for certain. I have, however, read a lot of the material that came out of the James Damore incident and it's clear that there are a lot of employees within Google who are pushing certain agendas. As for the American inventors issue, seobook makes it clear. Who, inside or outside Google, is going to raise a fuss over this and be forced to endure the shrill screeching of, "Racist!" ?

Based on my experience in Silicon Valley and the tech sector, I'd agree that the sector does run centre left(American centre left....which is further right than European center left) from my anecdotal experience.

However, when iTulip went off the boil and I started spending a bit more time in SV visiting Y-Combinator I found YC's Hacker News: https://news.ycombinator.com/

While my experience with YC partners/staff/investors/batch attendees leaned towards US centre left, YC's Hacker News forum seems to run as middle of the road as I've been able to find anywhere.

More Data/Fact driven forum discourse than I've found elsewhere.

Google's leaked internal video with it's founders and senior leadership(excluding CEO) after the US 2016 election was.....interesting.

Maybe it just provides a giant illuminated sign saying "Pay for your news coverage, or you risk getting what you pay for."

Glad to see iTulip dialogue and discourse up and running again.

There was a company founder I met(can't recall off the top of my head) who is running a tech industry paid subscription version of the Presidential Daily Briefing that I thought was an awesome concept.....especially if expanded to include other news such as political, international by region, social, economic, etc.

Short, sharp, bite sized unbiased analysis.

[subtly]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

That was my idea on youtube, right? Some muslim extremist titles a video 'Death to all Jews,' and they'll scrub it. Some nazi does the same and it's straight to the top. .

is this true?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

OK. That one's clearer. Even moreso if you type in 'caucasian scientists.' 'List of scientists' gets you more or less the expected cast of characters. I'm still not convinced it's not something like a result of crawling wikipedia and finding that articles about white scientists neglect to mention race where articles about black scientists make it prominent. 'Asian scientists' gets you a different result all together. By country, it seems to work fine for Indian or Canadian or Hungarian scientists, but American scientists has the same issue American inventors did. Clearly it's screwed up. And I don't rule out the idea that there's some general effort to make things PC so as not to piss people off. I'm not sure the knife doesn't multiple ways if that's happening. That was my idea on youtube, right? Some muslim extremist titles a video 'Death to all Jews,' and they'll scrub it. Some nazi does the same and it's straight to the top. Clearly there's some people they don't want to piss off, and others they don't mind pissing off.

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

To what end? That's the question I have. Say there was an active board meeting where they conspired to make all the inventors black. What's in it for them?

I cannot know for certain. I have, however, read a lot of the material that came out of the James Damore incident and it's clear that there are a lot of employees within Google who are pushing certain agendas. As for the American inventors issue, seobook makes it clear. Who, inside or outside Google, is going to raise a fuss over this and be forced to endure the shrill screeching of, "Racist!" ?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

To what end? That's the question I have. Say there was an active board meeting where they conspired to make all the inventors black. What's in it for them?

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Maybe the algorithm is just dumb.

I don't think so. If it were just dumb, you would see a bunch of American inventors of all ethnicities, not just black ones. A crude search algorithm would match "American inventors" with the specific "African American inventors" AND the generic "American inventors" ([insert modifier here] American inventors)

I've worked a fair bit with Google's search appliance in a large enterprise deployment and the search algorithm isn't so crude as to create the results seen in the inventors example. There are specific ways to tweak the user-entered search terms to bias the returned results and I strongly suspect that's what Google has done for its web site.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Sure thing.

Go to google.com and search for "black scientists." Then, open a new google window and search "white scientists."

Arrange them side by side and then do a C&C.

Note your immediate impressions, paying particular attention to any emotional response that might arise.

Then, review Orwell's description of thoughtcrime and crimestop and you should have an answer. Hope that helps.

Well that absolutely makes me a criminal; but then Langley has already established that as a fact from my total opposition to their showing me how sickeningly corrupt are the British Civil Service, who it seems would sell their mothers to a witch for a handful of silver cast at their feet; especially if there was other peoples money involved.

[Woodsman]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Would earnestly appreciate it if you'd spell this one out for me a bit more...

Sure thing.

Go to google.com and search for "black scientists." Then, open a new google window and search "white scientists."

Arrange them side by side and then do a C&C.

Note your immediate impressions, paying particular attention to any emotional response that might arise.

Then, review Orwell's description of thoughtcrime and crimestop and you should have an answer. Hope that helps.