You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

[lektrode]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

.....see all of this as EJ saying, you all refuse to talk about accountability and re-examine the accuracy of past predictions because it doesn't serve your agenda. This site does. And accordingly, in that last post...

iTulip flew it's freak flag with pride.

Proud to be a member. Warts and all.

+1
but...what warts?
when one is calling out the flagrant fraud that we see in the capture/take-over of The US .gov by the FIREmen, aided and abetted by the DC aristocracy who allows it to happen?
one isnt aiming for 'popularity' or mr janszen might've been invited over to capitol hill for a beer or a round of golf, or 2

[bagginz]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.

Hello Largo,
yes I'm aware that this was the response (or more correctly IMO a reaction (i.e driven by emotion)

I'm also aware that it's part of a longstanding ongoing public feud between EJ and Mish.

In my book, justifying the public venting of spleens by saying "Well he started it!" isn't the level of behaviour that I've come to expect from iTulip.

I honestly think allowing a conversation to degenerate into a public mud-slinging match does nobody any good at all. On the contrary, I believe it actually damages the reputations of all parties involved, certainly in my mind.

What would you have done in EJ's situation?

Well most of the damage had aleady been done by helping to antagonize the situation in the first place, see:

"And, of course, guys like Mike (Mish) Shedlock and Rock Ackerman simply got it wrong, but will never admit it." and using terms like "Duh-flation" for example: http://www.sjsugeology.org/sedlock/1...Etc_080408.pdf

If one wants to indulge one's sense of self-righteousness by mocking others publically (whether one is correct or not) then fine. Just that there's always a cost.

I would have taken it up with Mish personally via email and most importantly in a friendly, human and diplomatic manner with a view to finding common understanding via email, rather than reacting in what quite frankly is an insulting, rude and goading manner.

I also consider it bad manners and a breach of the confidentiality implicit in emails to publish personal emails publically.

(do) Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?

In my view, doing nothing at all is a perfectly reasonable option. Sit tight and be right.

EJ say's he's interested in the truth rather than traffic, so no problem, the truth will out eventually no? All comes to him that waits...

Most of us know EJ's superb track record and that his analysis is among the very best available anywhere. In all likelihood Mish will end up being incorrect and quite possibly end up with egg on his face anyway.

And if he doesn't end up with egg on his face, will we cry all the way to the bank?

Cheers,
bagginz

In taking revenge, a man is but even with his enemy; but in passing it over, he is superior.

Sir Francis Bacon

[Jill Nephew]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I had two responses. Emotionally, i could relate to the 'why is EJ airing dirty laundry'? impression and sense weakness.

However, as someone who has always been on an extreme of valuing truth over popularity, and knowing others like that, i see it more as the ONE thing those that are committed to truth get. We don't get recognition, we don't stay employed easily, we don't get easy social interactions, what we get is the RIGHT to call people out, be confrontational, and not back down from the argument when it gets political because we have no 'blood on our hands' from spinning lies for personal gain. In that way, i see all of this as EJ saying, you all refuse to talk about accountability and re-examine the accuracy of past predictions because it doesn't serve your agenda. This site does. And accordingly, in that last post...

iTulip flew it's freak flag with pride.

Proud to be a member. Warts and all.

[jpatter666]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I agree a reply was in order. Just not via posted private(?) emails and with the lack of dispassion you'd want to see. It was becoming personal and about the individuals, not the ideas. Sometimes when you go there you wind up arguing points just to destroy the opponent, even stuff you don't always believe.

Itulip may be for economic experts, but as a novice I can tell you that if it got its act together in terms of layout it would certainly have many more subscribers than it does now.

-front page is a mess and slow to load due to number of ads. They're clutter that is probably ignored when present in that layout anyway.
-new items from EJ are not always readily apparent to new users.
-there is no place to quickly find previous "calls" for reference. If you have a hypothetical "portfolio", why is it not posted prominently rather than some random article? New users want to see a track record at a glance. The absence of such breeds suspicion.
- the fonts are not that appealing
-The front left corner, the first place the eye moves, is not even Itulip material, just random videos from Youtube. My first visits I assumed they were itulip's main focus.
-not enough "free" content to draw in new subscribers.
-commentaries should be seperate from forums for ease of browsing them.
-organization of archived commentaries should be easier to access.
-way too many random items on front page. Great, you were published in two prominent magazines. But why give years old columns the same amount of space as your most important new commentary?

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

Find a more demanding editor for EJ's posts ( too many typos, small errors, run-on sentences, too-long sentences, excessive use of economic shorthand jargon when plainspeak would do, etc that require more effort to read.) This is the internet age. Things happen fast. Bottom line it, then fill in the details for those who may wish to challenge your theories. Those who want more can then dig in deeper if they wish. Those who trust your work implicitly can save time reading stuff they don't want to.

Great source of information, but not public-friendly. No wonder the other guy has more traffic.

No long-term user of the site has *ever* to my knowledge claimed it was height of useability. I'll certainly admit that if EJ hired some content managers to overhaul the site, handle interviews and interact more with the subscribers he could probably increase paying traffic to easily handle the additional cost.

That said:

1 ) Find me a site that allows the level of distributed information and *quality* of discussion to non-paying members (i.e. this means you so far as I can tell)
2 ) EJ has stated several times this site is *not* his source of income. He views it as a calling to try and inform the public as to what is really happening (see point #1)
3 ) You are welcome to solicit your garbage man's views of how to weather the current problems and invest. Please keep us informed on the track record.

Honestly, are you really reading what you are writing? To take you at face value, you'd prefer to have drivel every day than insightful and useful commentary once a month....believe me, most of us would dearly love more, but we'll take whatever we can get because we recognize the value.

[ST]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

SalAndRichard,

But, as EJ said in his reply to Mish, he doesn't give a damn about the popularity of the site, he cares about the quality and thoughtfulness of the readers who end up being participants and often provoking thoughts which might help with the analysis.

Anyone who can see the value of the analysis similarly doesn't give a damn about spelling or aesthetics.

I've harped on the site appearance before as well, but mainly in frustration for the lack of recognition for EJ's work - of which perhaps the off putting site is a component.

The subscriber base, including me, is still giddy that such analysis is available to them virtually for free. I know of mid profile and high profile names who charge hundreds of thousands to clients. Largely, they don't even have a clue what their talking about - what they do is follow the quarterly trends data points and try to stay a few weeks ahead of them -everything occurs to them as a thunderbolt - they come off, erroneously, looking prescient, but their analysis consistently does not produce the opportunity to buy mis-priced assets because it is junk economics or narrative nonsense.

That said, there is a new site format coming out in Sept/Oct.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

But I'm with Munger and SalandRichard on this one . . . . except with SandR's "EJ wins the argument so far with me in terms of my investments," with which I disagree.

Care to expand on this?

[CanuckinTX]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

I don't think I've ever read a more ridiculous analogy in my life. You're seriously comparing a macro focused investing site's frequency of updates to a garbage man that spends at most 1 min in front of your house each month?

You've only been around a couple months but do you really think you're telling anyone here something new about the website?

If you're looking for trading tips then go to a trading site. This one is very successfully focused on macro investing trends, and we should be lucky EJ spends any time sharing his analysis with us. He doesn't need subscribers to pay his bills which is why he's happy to be selective and have fewer. You don't even have Select access so I'm not sure how you can pass judgement on the volume or quality of information available on iTulip.

[LargoWinch]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

You are crossing the line here SalAndRichard.

Lastly, since you are obviously new here and never had access to the select content; I will tell you that iTulip is the best value hands down on the web or elsewhere. The track record is there to prove it. So do yourself a favor and unlike Mish, simply look it up - it is not that hard - you can even use google and I am sure even you can manage that.

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I agree a reply was in order. Just not via posted private(?) emails and with the lack of dispassion you'd want to see. It was becoming personal and about the individuals, not the ideas. Sometimes when you go there you wind up arguing points just to destroy the opponent, even stuff you don't always believe.

Itulip may be for economic experts, but as a novice I can tell you that if it got its act together in terms of layout it would certainly have many more subscribers than it does now.

-front page is a mess and slow to load due to number of ads. They're clutter that is probably ignored when present in that layout anyway.
-new items from EJ are not always readily apparent to new users.
-there is no place to quickly find previous "calls" for reference. If you have a hypothetical "portfolio", why is it not posted prominently rather than some random article? New users want to see a track record at a glance. The absence of such breeds suspicion.
- the fonts are not that appealing
-The front left corner, the first place the eye moves, is not even Itulip material, just random videos from Youtube. My first visits I assumed they were itulip's main focus.
-not enough "free" content to draw in new subscribers.
-commentaries should be seperate from forums for ease of browsing them.
-organization of archived commentaries should be easier to access.
-way too many random items on front page. Great, you were published in two prominent magazines. But why give years old columns the same amount of space as your most important new commentary?

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

Find a more demanding editor for EJ's posts ( too many typos, small errors, run-on sentences, too-long sentences, excessive use of economic shorthand jargon when plainspeak would do, etc that require more effort to read.) This is the internet age. Things happen fast. Bottom line it, then fill in the details for those who may wish to challenge your theories. Those who want more can then dig in deeper if they wish. Those who trust your work implicitly can save time reading stuff they don't want to.

Great source of information, but not public-friendly. No wonder the other guy has more traffic.

[metalman]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.

What would you have done in EJ's situation? Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?

not only did ej have to reply… but fast...

A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.
Mark Twain (1835 - 1910), (attributed)

more on mishmash...

Liars when they speak the truth are not believed.
Aristotle (384 BC - 322 BC), from Diogenes Laertius, Lives of Eminent Philosophers

Sometimes the lies you tell are less frightening than the loneliness you might feel if you stopped telling them.
Brock Clarke, An Arsonist's Guide to Writers' Homes in New England, 2007

Ambition drove many men to become false; to have one thought locked in the breast, another ready on the tongue.
Sallust (86 BC - 34 BC), The War with Catiline

Repetition does not transform a lie into a truth.
Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882 - 1945), radio address, October 26, 1939

The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others.
Friedrich Nietzsche (1844 - 1900)

A liar should have a good memory.
Quintilian, De Institutione Oratoria
(or make the effort to re-read his own material)

Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!
Sir Walter Scott (1771 - 1832), Marmion, Canto vi. Stanza 17.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Agreed 100%




“The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.”

From "How to Win Friends and Influence People" by Dale Carnegie

You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.

What would you have done in EJ's situation? Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?

[bagginz]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

I came away with a diminished opinion of this website as a result of that exchange being posted for public consumption.

Agreed 100%




“The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.”

From "How to Win Friends and Influence People" by Dale Carnegie

[theoakman1]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Mish pimped out his "Hedged Growth" fund in Feb 2009 when he was screaming with the deflation nonsense in full force. Since then, that fund has lost about 25%.

http://www.sitkapacific.com/files/Si..._Portfolio.pdf

It takes some real talent to lose money while the Dow & S&P rallied over 70% from that point in time. And it's not like Bonds were losing money either.

[LargoWinch]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

In an academic sense, you're right. But in the real world, if you were shorting real estate in 2005 you were just plain wrong.

You can know exactly what's going to happen and how it's going to happen, but if you get the timing wrong, you're wrong. End of story.

Such pearls of wisdom here bpr: "if you get the timing wrong you're wrong". In fact, even early on a trade you may make money, it all depends on your investment horizon and how long you can sustain your positions. So no, even "timing wrong" doesn't mean "you're wrong". Let me give you a very simple example: say I was short AIG in 2006, was I wrong?

More importantly, are you implying that the ka-Poom process timing is wrong? If so, prove your argument instead of making empty statements.

[metalman]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Here's a theory: jealousy. EJ mentions repeatedly the "popularity" and high traffic that Mish's site gets. He recognizes this and rationalizes it by saying that "...my site will always be less popular than yours..." because the content is not for general consumption, much like the grapes were not for fox's consumption. It's important to note that EJ is always the one mentioning traffic and popularity here.

steveaustin2006's post is illuminating, because I know little of Mish, except that I read him regularly for a few months until I found Itulip:



But in this email exchange, it is EJ who comes of as covetous of traffic and popularity.



Well put. Everyone wants to be right and recognized as such. In the area of economics, they want to be widely recognized. The more widely recognized, the more right, it seems, some times, since trends drive markets. Everyone has a vested interest.

Ultimately, EJ's thesis seems to be right over the long haul, or I believe so, otherwise I'd stop coming here. He's not right on every call, though. Have a look at Munger's comment and EJ's write-in via FRED. I'm not sure I understand the response.

here's a theory... ej is tired of mishmash the liar using his platform to lie about ej & his own record over & over & over & wants mishmash to stfu & stop lying?

where does ej say he's 100% right about everything? only 100% right re deflation... the topic of the article... that mishmash lied about ej in... again.

you can always tell the mishmash fan... they believe 9000 crap things... worried you might be one? here's a test...

is gold 'real money'?