You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

[nathanhulick]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

The fact that he has an audience indicates that people simply are not rigorous about track record - it will never cease to amaze me.

I remember watching CNBC in the late 90s and laughing at how horrible their analysis was. I thought that Jim Cramer was a couple of years away from flipping burgers.

Somehow he has gotten a few books published since then, and even has a couple of TV shows now.

I guess that just goes to show that much of the "investment analysis" available today is merely advertisements for overpriced "investment" products.

[touchring]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Recently, I decided to develop a spring on my farm, and I wanted to build a water tank.
Since I had never done this before, I talked to everyone I could to solicite ideas, and I learned a lot.

I approach the economy the same way . . . .
I read the general news, Bloomberg, Krugman, Mish, iTulip, ZeroHedge . . . and a few other sites from time to time plus other articles that catch my interest.
Mish and Krugman disagree on a lot, yet I gain something from both.

To answer your question, in general I simply find Mish's explanation of the economy more "reasonable" than EJ's.
I have been reading iTulip since 2006. About ago I started reading Mish, and I only occasionally read iTulip now.
That being said, I read every one of EJ's artices.

I'm a novice, but I think the views here are too USA centric. I believe that the current inflation is demand driven rather than the effect of money printing. If China and India start to consume, prices will start to rise. The world cannot support 2 USA. Economics 101, Demand rise, price rise. Oh yes, the Indians like gold. And also the Chinese. Both races buy gold for weddings, etc.

[*T*]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Sometimes it's hard to hear when someone's trying to help. SalAndRichard has some helpful and useful stuff to say. He/She/They don't deserve this slating. While jpatter66's three points are true, they are also not a reply. It has been said before that EJ could do with a more demanding editor to get the best out of his writing.

Humility is the first step in learning. EJ shows humility before the data. That is why I listen to and respect his opinions and the content of iTulip.
Mish is clever, but does not display humility. When I pointed out a small error (talking about a step forward for US politics by describing Obama as 'the descendent of slaves' - actually he's not, his father was a free African), he replied trying to justify his factually incorrect position. This ego is the root of intellectual dishonesty, and the reason I stopped reading Mish.

Brilliant people are often arrogant. It is the mark of a great man to combine humility and brilliance. EJ is humble before truth, but I did feel the interactions with Mish were a little unbecoming. I don't think people pointing this out deserve to be slapped down. I note EJ himself has not done so.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Thanks for clarifying!

[cjppjc]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I would take Eric Janszen's analyses on used toilet paper published biennially before Mish's cut-and-paste drivel any day. Your judgement suggests a profound lack of appreciation for the valuable content here. EJ is a man who actually gives a shit.

I had never heard of Mish Shedlock until I joined this site. I saw references to Mish here all the time and finally asked who he was. Metalman provided a link. I've since seen other links to Mish's site. There is no comparison. The work and thought that EJ gives is so far above what little I've seen at Mish Shedlock's site. Those who wish EJ has somehow handled it differently, nobody can be perfect to all people all the time. It would probably take a bigger man than most of us know to just keep it in.

[raja]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Care to expand on this?

Recently, I decided to develop a spring on my farm, and I wanted to build a water tank.
Since I had never done this before, I talked to everyone I could to solicite ideas, and I learned a lot.

I approach the economy the same way . . . .
I read the general news, Bloomberg, Krugman, Mish, iTulip, ZeroHedge . . . and a few other sites from time to time plus other articles that catch my interest.
Mish and Krugman disagree on a lot, yet I gain something from both.

To answer your question, in general I simply find Mish's explanation of the economy more "reasonable" than EJ's.
I have been reading iTulip since 2006. About ago I started reading Mish, and I only occasionally read iTulip now.
That being said, I read every one of EJ's artices.

[jiimbergin]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I would take Eric Janszen's analyses on used toilet paper published biennially before Mish's cut-and-paste drivel any day. Your judgement suggests a profound lack of appreciation for the valuable content here. EJ is a man who actually gives a shit.

+1

[Down Under]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I would take Eric Janszen's analyses on used toilet paper published biennially before Mish's cut-and-paste drivel any day. Your judgement suggests a profound lack of appreciation for the valuable content here. EJ is a man who actually gives a shit.

I suspect close to 100% of EJ's select members would agree; I for one, sure do.

[rogermexico]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Great source of information, but not public-friendly. No wonder the other guy has more traffic.

I would take Eric Janszen's analyses on used toilet paper published biennially before Mish's cut-and-paste drivel any day. Your judgement suggests a profound lack of appreciation for the valuable content here. EJ is a man who actually gives a shit.

[Down Under]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

here's a theory... ej is tired of mishmash the liar using his platform to lie about ej & his own record over & over & over & wants mishmash to stfu & stop lying?

where does ej say he's 100% right about everything? only 100% right re deflation... the topic of the article... that mishmash lied about ej in... again.

you can always tell the mishmash fan... they believe 9000 crap things... worried you might be one? here's a test...

is gold 'real money'?

spot on

[rogermexico]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Even more telling is Zero Hedge at 2490 in the global rankings.

Yes, I was going to add that, and should have...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Hello Largo,
yes I'm aware that this was the response (or more correctly IMO a reaction (i.e driven by emotion)

I'm also aware that it's part of a longstanding ongoing public feud between EJ and Mish.

In my book, justifying the public venting of spleens by saying "Well he started it!" isn't the level of behaviour that I've come to expect from iTulip.

I honestly think allowing a conversation to degenerate into a public mud-slinging match does nobody any good at all. On the contrary, I believe it actually damages the reputations of all parties involved, certainly in my mind.




Well most of the damage had aleady been done by helping to antagonize the situation in the first place, see:

"And, of course, guys like Mike (Mish) Shedlock and Rock Ackerman simply got it wrong, but will never admit it." and using terms like "Duh-flation" for example: http://www.sjsugeology.org/sedlock/1...Etc_080408.pdf

If one wants to indulge one's sense of self-righteousness by mocking others publically (whether one is correct or not) then fine. Just that there's always a cost.

I would have taken it up with Mish personally via email and most importantly in a friendly, human and diplomatic manner with a view to finding common understanding via email, rather than reacting in what quite frankly is an insulting, rude and goading manner.

I also consider it bad manners and a breach of the confidentiality implicit in emails to publish personal emails publically.



In my view, doing nothing at all is a perfectly reasonable option. Sit tight and be right.

EJ say's he's interested in the truth rather than traffic, so no problem, the truth will out eventually no? All comes to him that waits...

Most of us know EJ's superb track record and that his analysis is among the very best available anywhere. In all likelihood Mish will end up being incorrect and quite possibly end up with egg on his face anyway.

And if he doesn't end up with egg on his face, will we cry all the way to the bank?

Cheers,
bagginz

In taking revenge, a man is but even with his enemy; but in passing it over, he is superior.

Sir Francis Bacon

bagginz, although I may not agree with you entirely, I must admit: this is a great post. Keep them coming.

[Jill Nephew]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Warts meaning mistakes. The only thing ultimately we can learn from (ours or others).

[bart]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

You are crossing the line here SalAndRichard. If you don't like the site, simply go back to the hole where you came from.

Lastly, since you are obviously new here and never had access to the select content; I will tell you that iTulip is the best value hands down on the web or elsewhere. The track record is there to prove it. So do yourself a favor and unlike Mish, simply look it up - it is not that hard - you can even use google and I am sure even you can manage that.

Hear Hear.... and basically agreed... seems somewhat trollish in their comments too.



I've had multiple run ins with Mish over the years and can testify that he "responded" to EJ in his "normal" way, with personal attacks, spew etc. instead of actual facts or logic. While I'm not fond of airing "dirty laundry", in this case I do agree with posting the emails and for one reason - it shows a much fuller picture of Mish - the one some see when disagreeing with his "dubious journalism" as in my article Dollar intervention: Facts versus ideology which was a response to his comments about one of my charts.

As far as track records, someone posted a link to his employers actual performance - and its quite poor.

The traffic to his site, per Alexa, has not been growing at all for about two years and I've noted increasing criticism of others this year, especially those with higher growth rates or higher overall traffic.

In his article "Failure to Consider Constraints - My Response to..." in November 2010, he finally admitted that inflation had been happening - about 18 months late even when measured by the inaccurate BLS CPI.

As far as inflation, even per my mild adjustments to CPI (less than those from shadowstats), CPI w/o lies never dropped even vaguely close to zero. Mish has never even vaguely addressed the problems with the BLS CPI that causes it to be way too low:

• Hedonics
• Substitution bias
• OER switch in 1982
• Boskin Commission results in 1996
• Health care is about 6% of CPI, but about 17% of GDP
• Geometric weighting
• etc.

There are dozens and dozens more examples, but it's relatively pointless to enumerate them here - most can easily see through him and most of the content on his site.

[lektrode]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

...
Anyone who can see the value of the analysis similarly doesn't give a damn about spelling or aesthetics.
....
The subscriber base, including me, is still giddy that such analysis is available to them virtually for free. I know of mid profile and high profile names who charge hundreds of thousands to clients. Largely, they don't even have a clue what their talking about - what they do is follow the quarterly trends data points ....

+1 and another .5 for the bernanks cut

i'm certainly no expert in investing/economics (why i'm here, to learn, from some of The Best, who share quite readily their acumen and observations), but after being an avid consumer of business news/commentary for 35years+, it wasnt until i found the itulip that i realized just how much i _dont_ know - but what this site, EJ in particular, has done for me, is to have FORCED MY EYEBALLS WIDE OPEN about the politics of money/finance in the world

and what a rude awakening it was...

dunno about the rest, salnrich, but since they have laid out all the 'shortcomings' (?) for us, can you show me a forum with more thorough and actionable analysis/intelligence than itulip?

never mind one that doesnt cost much more than 'garbage pickup'...