You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

[bart]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

It's not an either-or proposition between demand and money printing. Demand without money to express it can do nothing to prices ... just try going out and demanding a tank of gas for nothing. If China et al can raise prices in dollars with their demand, it's because we sent them zillions of dollars to do their demand-ing with. The Fed created those zillions of dollars, homeowners and other borrowers borrowed them, then sent them to BRICOPEC. The chain always leads back to where the dollars were created in the first place. Without those dollars, they could hold their breath until they turn blue demanding stuff, but no price increases without money increases.

Perhaps a nuance in this thread context, but China's M2 money supply is *substantially* larger than U.S. M2. They crossed in 2009:

[bart]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

There is emotional expression in my response but emotion did not drive me to respond nor the form of my response. I have better things to do with my time than defend my reputation from sneak attacks. After several less strident attempts to get Mish to stop misrepresenting my positions on his site I decided to try a new approach. Maybe it will work where civil phone conversations, email, and postings have failed. Only time will tell.
...

Having been in a similar situation, I understand and agree. My own experiences with Mish and attacks are quite similar to yours.
I'll add that his attacks on you and iTulip were not limited to his site, from personal experience.

I'll even go further and say that if I divulged some of Mish's real opinions or actual knowledge, as expressed to me during phone calls years ago before I stopped talking to him or responding to him, many would be shocked and many would also think I was lying. C'est la vie.


On the hopefully good news side, after I wrote and you and others published my devastating article ( Dollar intervention: Facts versus ideology ) addressing his unfounded and simply wrong attacks that clearly displayed his lack of knowledge and understanding, I've had next to no trouble with him.... but have been tempted a few times to do some "Mish Mash" threads and comment again on some of his continual shortcomings in "journalistic accuracy", etc. - maybe even a regular column. ;-)

[Finster]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

I'm a novice, but I think the views here are too USA centric. I believe that the current inflation is demand driven rather than the effect of money printing. If China and India start to consume, prices will start to rise. The world cannot support 2 USA. Economics 101, Demand rise, price rise. Oh yes, the Indians like gold. And also the Chinese. Both races buy gold for weddings, etc.

It's not an either-or proposition between demand and money printing. Demand without money to express it can do nothing to prices ... just try going out and demanding a tank of gas for nothing. If China et al can raise prices in dollars with their demand, it's because we sent them zillions of dollars to do their demand-ing with. The Fed created those zillions of dollars, homeowners and other borrowers borrowed them, then sent them to BRICOPEC. The chain always leads back to where the dollars were created in the first place. Without those dollars, they could hold their breath until they turn blue demanding stuff, but no price increases without money increases.

[Down Under]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

There is emotional expression in my response but emotion did not drive me to respond nor the form of my response. I have better things to do with my time than defend my reputation from sneak attacks. After several less strident attempts to get Mish to stop misrepresenting my positions on his site I decided to try a new approach. Maybe it will work where civil phone conversations, email, and postings have failed. Only time will tell.

[snip]

This is not revenge. It's a direct counter-attack to a sneak attack. You don't see the cases where I did as you say where it makes sense to do so, to say nothing. You have to pick your battles in this business.

FWIW, I agree with you fully.

[pianodoctor]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

I hope that anyone googling Mish will come across this thread so that they will have the complete understanding. Therefore: mish mish mish mish mish mish mish mish mish mish, deflation deflation deflation deflation deflation deflation deflation deflation deflation deflation. Mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation mish deflation. Namaste.

[c1ue]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Mish is an idiot and a hack.

He is, however, a masterful populist.

He's right up there with Kiyosaki in my book: entertaining but a disaster in every other respect.

Not worth anyone's time - though the point raised about the intellectual tailgating is quite valid.

Nonetheless the proof is in the pudding.

Keep up the good work and leave the populism to the Mishes, Kiyosakis, and Trumps of the world.

[shiny!]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Bless you, Eric.

[EJ]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

You are thinking backwards bagginz; Mish is the one who published the said article earlier this week - this is the response.

Hello Largo,
yes I'm aware that this was the response (or more correctly IMO a reaction (i.e driven by emotion)

There is emotional expression in my response but emotion did not drive me to respond nor the form of my response. I have better things to do with my time than defend my reputation from sneak attacks. After several less strident attempts to get Mish to stop misrepresenting my positions on his site I decided to try a new approach. Maybe it will work where civil phone conversations, email, and postings have failed. Only time will tell.

I'm also aware that it's part of a longstanding ongoing public feud between EJ and Mish.

Besides Mish I have also debated Rick Ackerman and Steve Keen on the same topic.

Keen, an economics professional and a gentleman, said on his site that he underestimated the central bank's ability to reflate and went back to the drawing board on deflation.

Rick also later said he was wrong about deflation.

But Mish is no Steve Keen. Steve is an economist who understands economics and needs to maintain a reputation for professional integrity.

My response may strike you as overly harsh, disproportionate, below me, and so on, but unless you have 13 years' experience running a site where your real name is in the public domain you have to trust me on this: if you let a well known and widely read Internet personality promote himself at your expense in public without comment only bad things happen.

I honestly think allowing a conversation to degenerate into a public mud-slinging match does nobody any good at all. On the contrary, I believe it actually damages the reputations of all parties involved, certainly in my mind.

I'd like as many people as possible outside of the iTulip community to be aware of the misrepresentation. The public likes a good fist fight. Conflict draws attention the way Socratic dialogue does not. You do not get to leave the ring with a reputation as philosopher but you will be heard.

My article was picked up by a dozen sites. I guarantee you that would not have happened if I'd been polite.

Well most of the damage had aleady been done by helping to antagonize the situation in the first place, see:

Mish is the only one left who I debated on deflation who clings to the conviction that deflation is occurring.

I would have taken it up with Mish personally via email and most importantly in a friendly, human and diplomatic manner with a view to finding common understanding via email, rather than reacting in what quite frankly is an insulting, rude and goading manner.

I've attempted to do just that at least a half dozen times over the past four years.

It began with a deal in early 2007 between me and Mish for Mish to post on iTulip and I to post on his site. We created a Mish's Comments forum on iTulip. He wrote a piece and I published it on iTulip. I wrote a piece and he did not post it on his site as we agreed. Mis-communication? We closed the forum and moved on.

Similar "mis-communications" occurred later. A pattern of behavior appeared. After four years of this you could say I've lost patience. It's time for a new approach.

I also consider it bad manners and a breach of the confidentiality implicit in emails to publish personal emails publically.

We took the unusual step of publishing the email thread, which we have never done before and I hope we will never have to do again, for one main purpose: to convince Mish to stop talking about me in his site and stop sending me emails. He could have simply stopped responding to me at any time which he continued to do even after we began posting the email thread. But I agree with you, it's generally bad form, and we'll take it down.

(do) Nothing and allow lies about you and your track record to be spread around on the public domain?

In my view, doing nothing at all is a perfectly reasonable option. Sit tight and be right.

That doesn't work in these cases, as I've learned.

EJ say's he's interested in the truth rather than traffic, so no problem, the truth will out eventually no? All comes to him that waits...

Absolutely not. The truth will not come out eventually. The opposite. The truth gets buried in the memory hole if misrepresentations go uncontested. Not only do you have to respond but you have to do it memorably.

Most of us know EJ's superb track record and that his analysis is among the very best available anywhere. In all likelihood Mish will end up being incorrect and quite possibly end up with egg on his face anyway.

Not if no one says anything.

In taking revenge, a man is but even with his enemy; but in passing it over, he is superior.

Sir Francis Bacon

This is not revenge. It's a direct counter-attack to a sneak attack. You don't see the cases where I did as you say where it makes sense to do so, to say nothing. You have to pick your battles in this business.

[jk]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

just an fyi re the front page- i don't know why anyone who isn't new here would ever visit the front page. hit "get new" on the forum page and then scan for threads that interest you.

[photoncounter]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

In my opinion, most of EJ's article have more insight and new information that one can find in PhD thesis' published these days. EJ comes up with more brilliance every time I think it's been too long since I saw a post from EJ. Be picky about trivial matters such as spelling mistakes and appearance and it is your loss. Be patient and you will be rewarded. Just my $0.02.

[lektrode]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Ouch!

Well, *T*, I respect your opinions, so I took a look back at my reply. You are essentially correct in that I was addressing the ending posts of the post and not the initial commentary. To me, those points were trivial compared to the overall assertion that EJ needed to post more in order to justify the price.
....
True, and don't you find it telling that this site seems to hold on to its subscribers and even add....

+1

[lektrode]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I remember watching CNBC in the late 90s and laughing at how horrible their analysis was. I thought that Jim Cramer was a couple of years away from flipping burgers.

Somehow he has gotten a few books published since then, and even has a couple of TV shows now.

I guess that just goes to show that much of the "investment analysis" available today is merely advertisements for overpriced "investment" products.

or worse, in the case of kramer: "entertainment" (read: "i'm not 'really' giving investment advice, its merely 'an opinion' and not to be taken at face value, you should conduct yer own research")

[thedrifter]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

I am a former select member here and current lurker. I have always enjoyed this site and respect (most of) the opinions posted here. But I was not impressed with the tenor (and some of the content) of EJ's responses to Mish and the posting of those responses for all to see. The original post in this thread was all that was needed. The rest have hurt my impression of EJ and this site. I say this only to encourage EJ to refrain from similar posts in the future. Credibility is key, even with people like me who read this site and others for facts, worthy opinions and possible guidance.

[raja]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Humility is the first step in learning. EJ shows humility before the data. That is why I listen to and respect his opinions and the content of iTulip.
Mish is clever, but does not display humility. When I pointed out a small error (talking about a step forward for US politics by describing Obama as 'the descendent of slaves' - actually he's not, his father was a free African), he replied trying to justify his factually incorrect position. This ego is the root of intellectual dishonesty, and the reason I stopped reading Mish.

The world is full of arrogant idiots, and the reality is that the best of us are just somewhat less idiotic and arrogant than the rest. Therefore, I judge people on a sliding scale -- it's all a matter of degree . . . .

Although I can believe that Mish did as you say, I don't think this particular failure -- or even a small strain of ongoing intellectual stubbornness -- significantly diminishes what he has to say overall. Still, it's wise to be vigilant.

Nobody knows the future, yet those of us who are investors have to gamble regardless of this inherent state of ignorance. We have a lot "invested" in being right, and we don't want to hear it, and often can't receive it, when someone criticizes our trusted guides. Complain about a pundit on his own website, and be prepared to be attacked by the majority. Such criticisms are best made obliquely, and those who are able to benefit will get it.

While "the ego is the root intellectual dishonesty", greed is also a root of intellectual dishonesty, and some internet pundits clearly talk their book. An example: someone makes a call, finds out the call is wrong, but doesn't inform his subscribers of this right away because he doesn't want to soil his reputation. As a result, subscribers lose money. This happened to me . . . .

[jpatter666]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Sometimes it's hard to hear when someone's trying to help. SalAndRichard has some helpful and useful stuff to say. He/She/They don't deserve this slating. While jpatter66's three points are true, they are also not a reply. It has been said before that EJ could do with a more demanding editor to get the best out of his writing.

Humility is the first step in learning. EJ shows humility before the data. That is why I listen to and respect his opinions and the content of iTulip.
Mish is clever, but does not display humility. When I pointed out a small error (talking about a step forward for US politics by describing Obama as 'the descendent of slaves' - actually he's not, his father was a free African), he replied trying to justify his factually incorrect position. This ego is the root of intellectual dishonesty, and the reason I stopped reading Mish.

Brilliant people are often arrogant. It is the mark of a great man to combine humility and brilliance. EJ is humble before truth, but I did feel the interactions with Mish were a little unbecoming. I don't think people pointing this out deserve to be slapped down. I note EJ himself has not done so.

Ouch!

Well, *T*, I respect your opinions, so I took a look back at my reply. You are essentially correct in that I was addressing the ending posts of the post and not the initial commentary. To me, those points were trivial compared to the overall assertion that EJ needed to post more in order to justify the price.

Buuuut....let's look at this in total.

---------------------- le axe -------------------
I agree a reply was in order. Just not via posted private(?) emails and with the lack of dispassion you'd want to see. It was becoming personal and about the individuals, not the ideas. Sometimes when you go there you wind up arguing points just to destroy the opponent, even stuff you don't always believe.

Itulip may be for economic experts, but as a novice I can tell you that if it got its act together in terms of layout it would certainly have many more subscribers than it does now.

-front page is a mess and slow to load due to number of ads. They're clutter that is probably ignored when present in that layout anyway.
-new items from EJ are not always readily apparent to new users.

No argument to any of this. Best that can be said is that hopefully these will be addressed when the new site comes online.

-there is no place to quickly find previous "calls" for reference. If you have a hypothetical "portfolio", why is it not posted prominently rather than some random article? New users want to see a track record at a glance. The absence of such breeds suspicion.

Being a macro site, other than the very big calls, I'm not sure how you could track this. The only major call was buying gold and bonds back in 2001. A few years ago the gold ration was increased. All these positions have done very, very well. There have been some calls to sell stocks/silver which have also done well, but EJ does *not* usually give specifics as to what he is buying/selling. If you are looking for that level of hand-holding, you need to be elsewhere.

- the fonts are not that appealing

Semantics. But noted.

-The front left corner, the first place the eye moves, is not even Itulip material, just random videos from Youtube. My first visits I assumed they were itulip's main focus.

Probably a placeholder for putting up the occasional video. This used to go on earlier, might be addressed by the new site.

-not enough "free" content to draw in new subscribers.

You gotta be kidding.....the first part of every analysis is free, you can access and post of many of the forums. Please name a subscription site where you get as much or more.

-commentaries should be seperate from forums for ease of browsing them.
-organization of archived commentaries should be easier to access.
-way too many random items on front page. Great, you were published in two prominent magazines. But why give years old columns the same amount of space as your most important new commentary?

Hopefully addressed by the new site.

If you're going to charge more than my garbage man does to drive by my house 4 times a month and empty my stinking garbage, at least make sure you have some new information for us at least once a month. Not many subscription services are able to provide services at random long intervals and keep subscribers. "Sorry, there will be no HBO movies this month, but in September we may have extra ones".

True, and don't you find it telling that this site seems to hold on to its subscribers and even add....