You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

[bart]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

From Mish's post now under discussion, three examples of him admitting he was wrong:

1. "In March 2009, financial assets valuations soared. That action kept up for longer than I expected"

He was about 18 MONTHS late in that admission - hardly evidence of good analysis.

2. However, I also clearly pointed out "Every deflationist on the planet understands inflation will be back at some point and the Fed will attempt to do everything it can to avoid it." In retrospect, the word "every" in the above sentence is too strong.

3. I wish I had worded the condition a bit more thoughtfully. In a period of deflation GDP will be weak, not necessarily continually falling.

The last two in my opinion are simply evidence of how many times he has "gone off" without substantial thought and analysis, and it has continued for years.

Perhaps Mish has improved since the time when you read him, and corrected the tendencies you observed at that time?

Just a few days ago, he went off about Switzerland and gold soaring there as a result - and that was completely wrong.

Also, contrary to what you experienced, I find Mish to be very consistent, objective, and data-driven . . . but not data-driven in the same way that EJ is. Mish does not do the in-depth data analysis that EJ does -- coming up with a lengthy article every month or so -- but that's not what he's trying to do. When people criticize him for not providing the same type of info EJ does, that is a mistake.

As I noted above, its my strong belief that the data he uses is both heavily filtered by his ideology and is also a subset of all the data available.


His continual and long term misrepresentations about EJ and iTulip's positions and record... OMG... well, they speak for themselves and without even pointing out the public track record of his employer.

[bart]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Mish's definition: "Deflation is a net decrease in money supply and credit, with credit marked-to-market."

What's tortured or complicated about that?

At least three massive problems with it.

1. It ignores gov't debt. If new debt can't be spent like money (as in a medium of exchange), then he has little clue what money really is.
2. He also used to (and for many years) not consider credit as money in spite of massive efforts and evidence to the contrary, and would go off in rant/attack mode on anyone who thought otherwise. That's arrogance in my book.
3. It ignores that "marked to market" frequently has little to do with actual value - and is also *extremely* difficult to measure, thereby giving him an easy out when confronted with contrary facts.

There's also the issue of it being yet another of his invented definitions. It's also 100% contrary to Hayek.

You also didn't note that he basically doesn't consider generally rising or falling prices as evidence of inflation or deflation. That's serious tortured logic.

Those items and many more (a complete failure and refusal for many years to take any of shadowstats facts about CPI being way too low into account, using an attempted CPI mod that uses Case Shiller instead of OER with an implied assumption that folk move and trade housing way more frequently than they actually do to support his bogus deflation thesis [which has been 100% wrong since at least 2004], an assertion that gold doesn't track inflation which is 100% contrary to the facts, calling folk "Keynesian clowns" while always ignoring that Keynes said that one must save and pay down during good times, a complete failure to note that currency intervention does work [the Paris & Louvre Accords worked for years as just one example - and that interventions can massively zap shorter term returns is another area that has conveniently never been addressed], etc. etc.) tell the actual story for those who see a broader picture.

[raja]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Exactly on point about the tortured definition of deflation that Shedlock uses. It fails all kinds of tests for a good technical argument, as in simplicity wins.

Mish's definition: "Deflation is a net decrease in money supply and credit, with credit marked-to-market."

What's tortured or complicated about that?

[raja]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

The worst? Won't admit he's wrong. Everyone is wrong at some point, those who refuse to acknowledge errors cannot be trusted for anything.

From Mish's post now under discussion, three examples of him admitting he was wrong:

1. "In March 2009, financial assets valuations soared. That action kept up for longer than I expected"

2. However, I also clearly pointed out "Every deflationist on the planet understands inflation will be back at some point and the Fed will attempt to do everything it can to avoid it." In retrospect, the word "every" in the above sentence is too strong.

3. I wish I had worded the condition a bit more thoughtfully. In a period of deflation GDP will be weak, not necessarily continually falling.
However, let's call this a near miss.

Perhaps Mish has improved since the time when you read him, and corrected the tendencies you observed at that time?

Also, contrary to what you experienced, I find Mish to be very consistent, objective, and data-driven . . . but not data-driven in the same way that EJ is. Mish does not do the in-depth data analysis that EJ does -- coming up with a lengthy article every month or so -- but that's not what he's trying to do. When people criticize him for not providing the same type of info EJ does, that is a mistake.

[yernamehear]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Exactly on point about the tortured definition of deflation that Shedlock uses. It fails all kinds of tests for a good technical argument, as in simplicity wins.

Thanks to all the editors here. Compared to others they are straight shooters.

The only beef I have against a lot of people, including the ITulip portfolio is its lack of diversification. It is very hard in reality to commit to one or two asset classes over long periods. Of course, if you're right, you're a genius. If not, well....

I have done almost as well by some tactical asset allocation techniques and taken much less risk over the past 10 years. Precious metals have been a big contributor to the good returns.

Thanks again.

[fpacific]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Bravo Eric, love your work. did i spell your name right?

[AxelB]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

For what it's worth, coming from a somewhat dispationate observer, I note the following. First, EJ's reponse -- while assertive -- crossed no line. There was no ad hominem attack, no unecessary embellishment or denigration. It remained intellectually honest, if mocking in tone. Second, I respect Eric taking the time to explain the underlying reason for departing from what appears to be a traditionally more moderate tone. Finally, I find the explanations convincing. I can't imagine Mish would care much about stopping his misrepresentations absent a direct confrontation and the truth does tend to get burried -- to much collective detriment.

[c1ue]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Care to tell us what leads you to your opinion that Mish is an idiot and a hack?

Inconsistent. Changes his colors then lies about it. Not data driven. Not objective.

The worst? Won't admit he's wrong. Everyone is wrong at some point, those who refuse to acknowledge errors cannot be trusted for anything.

Note: I saw all this in a mere 3 weeks reading his crap, as well as looking at past work to that point. Since then I've completely ignored him so cannot comment on his record since then.

[jpatter666]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Sorry jp66, really wasn't meant personally!

Oh, no problem, didn't take it that way at all. :-)

[*T*]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

Ouch!

Sorry jp66, really wasn't meant personally!

[touchring]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Perhaps a nuance in this thread context, but China's M2 money supply is *substantially* larger than U.S. M2. They crossed in 2009:

Anyone who thinks that China depends on the US obviously hasn't been to China.

[raja]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

Mish is an idiot and a hack.

He is, however, a masterful populist.

He's right up there with Kiyosaki in my book: entertaining but a disaster in every other respect.

Not worth anyone's time - though the point raised about the intellectual tailgating is quite valid.

Nonetheless the proof is in the pudding.

Keep up the good work and leave the populism to the Mishes, Kiyosakis, and Trumps of the world.

Care to tell us what leads you to your opinion that Mish is an idiot and a hack?

[bart]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I worry about you when you think someone like Mish matters. It's noise. The deflation idea is noise and has been well before any of us were born.

I don't know if that was to me or not, but yes - Mish does matter.

He's spreading false or incomplete and/or spun etc. data to many folk (as many have noted in specifics on this thread), and in my opinion many of them will get hurt - some very substantially. And the way I've seen him spin EJ's and iTulip's thoughts and research etc. is well beyond the pale, to say the least... and adding nothing about my personal experiences with him either.

To always keep quiet in those type of circumstances just isn't in my nature these days.

[raja]

Re: Yet more amusing emails between EJ and Mish

I am a former select member here and current lurker. I have always enjoyed this site and respect (most of) the opinions posted here. But I was not impressed with the tenor (and some of the content) of EJ's responses to Mish and the posting of those responses for all to see. The original post in this thread was all that was needed. The rest have hurt my impression of EJ and this site. I say this only to encourage EJ to refrain from similar posts in the future. Credibility is key, even with people like me who read this site and others for facts, worthy opinions and possible guidance.

I encourage the posting of emails in cases where the true colors of the participants are evidenced.
If there's weakness there, I want to know it so I can adjust my opinions and investment strategy accordingly.

[santafe2]

Re: You're not going to believe this - Eric Janszen

I worry about you when you think someone like Mish matters. It's noise. The deflation idea is noise and has been well before any of us were born.