Bullish Information

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

I would not trust Russell. Isn't he the guy screaming BUY! last July on the top of the peak?

The only reason I am still somewhat bullish and didn't sell all long positions yet (but decreased my leverage) is that we came from very oversold positions in March and sentiment wise, we can easily go over on the other end of the extreme, just like it happened in 2003 or 2006 when there was no end of rallying from the oversold positions. It is likely especially if that coincides with a sell off in commodities and oil (that is happening now) and a dollar rally that will bring (or is bringing) overseas investors in. This combined with the election year keeps me invested long, especially heavy in emerging markets and china and short on energy and bonds. But I will be quick to sell when the next wave of recessionary force comes.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re.Brimelow on Russell on gold and market

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...24FA72C37DE%7D

PETER BRIMELOW
Fed leaves newsletters unperturbed
Commentary: Richard Russell says we've seen this market's bottom

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Fed's rate cut may have flattened the stock market rally. But two strong letters are unperturbed.

By an heroic effort, I haven't mentioned Dow Theory Letters' endlessly inventive Richard Russell for at least a month. In the meantime, the octogenarian superbear has suddenly announced that he's rethought the last 25 years of market history and has decided that we've been in a primary bull all along. See Mark Hulbert's April 9 column

So much for being a stopped clock. But Russell's market timing is among the best of any that the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over the last three decades.

After Wednesday's stock soufflé sagged, Russell said flatly: "Until proved otherwise, I'm going on the assumption that we've seen the bottom for this market. I have to think that the market has fully discounted all the bad news. The only thing I think would break this market down would be a total surprise such as 9/11 or a sudden war or something in that order."
Wednesday night, Russell didn't comment on gold's retreat except to issue this fundamentalist fulmination:

"Why do central banks fear gold, why do they continue to attempt to denigrate gold, why do they want to keep the gold prices down in order to make it unattractive? The reason, of course, is that gold is outside the system. Gold doesn't depend on any central bank or any government to bestow power on it. Gold is wealth on its own -- no matter where you live and no matter what your government's policy is. Gold means economic freedom."

But in the past few days, he's been more specific: "One effective guide has simply been the 50-week moving average. When gold rises too far above its 50-week MA, it tends to correct. When gold drops below its 50-week MA, it tends to get "sticky" on the downside ... The MA comes in now at 782, or let's call the support at 800. So will gold correct to 800? Honestly, nobody knows."

Yes, yes, Russellphobes (a vocal group), I know you don't pay money to hear that "nobody knows."

But in Russell's world, it's meaningful. Here's Russell's bottom line on gold: "Don't worry about gold, this is just a long overdue correction. I've been through these corrections many times before. Hold onto your gold. Don't panic with the Johnny-come-latelies."

And Russell's (surprisingly upbeat) bottom line on the economy: "It's obvious that the Bernanke Fed was most anxious to protect the banking system of the US ... But how about the home owners and potential millions of foreclosures? In terms of money, this would not compare with the problems if the banking system of the nation collapsed. Also, I find it hard to believe that the stock market hasn't already discounted the worst of the foreclosure situation.

"But what if consumers start cutting back in earnest, sending the nation into the depths of a 1930s-style depression? If the stock market continues to act well, I believe it will change people's now-depressed sentiment. I've never seen a stock market that headed persistently higher that didn't turn the crowd bullish ... If that happened I think home prices would bottom sooner than even optimistic real estate experts expect."
My second unperturbed strong letter, the Cabot Market Letter, is currently up 36.7% over the past 12 months according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, vs. negative 5.76% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.

After Wednesday's close, Cabot wrote in a hotline: "Remain optimistic. Although the bulls aren't running wild, the market is making decent progress, and more stocks are acting better ... go slow, pick your spots, and keep some cash on the sideline."

Russell will turn out to be very correct or very wrong. One thing about old Russell, though it struck me when I subscribed to his letter that he read everything almost, yet he persisted in purveying the notion that the answer lies in watching the market. I think it was jtabeb elsewhere here who complained that the things he was watching had not done anything he figured they should be doing for several month and jtabeb seemed frustrated. Shit, the markets are going to do whatever they do, the question is what are we going to do?

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Jim,
I don't follow Hulbert closely, but he did sound very bulish since last fall. Yet the markets lost some major money since. I don't know, but maybe he is a contrarian indicator?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Hulbert has turned permabull whore, likes cashing Dow Jones/NYT checks.
Doesn't mean particular items he cites are not true or useful-or that they
are.

Who is US seems for the greater part not to be all about making all the money they can, hopefully honestly?

I guess someone can check the insider buying data and refute it if it isn't honestly reported by Hulbert.

Checking his assessment of what the advisors are doing that he tracks would be a bit harder.

My reason for beginning these threads was to provide a chronology to what may have been the outlooks of those who were saying whatever at a particular time. Probably my bias influences what I post, and certainly there are many predictions out there that I never cross, so what I might document is no doubt much less than a complete picture.

Threads are open to all to post things they see as bullish or bearish.

Unless you have hard evidence to support your contention, I think calling Hulbert a "permabull whore" is a bit much.

[Rantly McTirade]

Re: Bullish Information

Hulbert has turned permabull whore, likes cashing Dow Jones/NYT checks.
Doesn't mean particular items he cites are not true or useful-or that they
are.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

I totally agree. While the markets were very oversold in mid March, some investor indicators did not reach the absolute bottom associated with the market overreaction to recession as we saw last in the end of 1990 or beginning of 2003. On the other hand, 2007 did not see the investor overexuberance typically seen in absolute tops. Either we are not in the recession yet (1998-like episode) or more selling will commence this summer.
Like I said before, I'm still long but steadily decreasing my leverage. Yesterday I sold most of my energy positions.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Hulbert

Hulbert has not let up recently on writing bullish findings.

MARK HULBERT
Optimistic insiders
Commentary: Corporate insiders on balance are betting on a rising market

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT April 22, 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...4F61040F53A%7D

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The last time I checked in with what corporate insiders are buying and selling, in early February, I reported that they were behaving quite bullishly.



Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a new low in early March and then rallied. Net, the Dow is some 560 points higher now than where it closed on the day my column appeared. See Feb. 5 column

Corporate insiders, of course, are a company's officers, directors, and largest shareholders. Whenever they buy or sell any of their company's shares, they are required to report those transactions more or less immediately to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many pay close attention to what the insiders are buying and selling, since there is a significant body of research showing that insiders are usually more right than the rest of us.

And, right now, the insiders are sending a very bullish message.
Jonathan Moreland is editor of the Insider Insights newsletter, one of the handful of services I track that monitor the insider transactions that are reported to the SEC. His model portfolio became fully invested in stocks effective with the April 21 issue of his newsletter.

After noting insiders' bullish behavior, Moreland writes: "While we hardly think it's 'all good' on the economic front in the U.S., the price action of numerous indices have become increasingly constructive in recent weeks, despite poor earnings and economic news. That's as clear a sign as any that stocks may be past the worst of this correction. The likelihood of a good old-fashioned correction appears to be particularly low now that the Feds have shown their socialist tendencies during the Bear Stearns crisis."

Another service that carefully monitors the behavior of corporate insiders is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. Vickers calculates the ratio of all insider sales over the trailing eight weeks to all insider purchases. For the eight weeks ending mid April, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 1.40-1. Vickers considers any ratio below 2-1 to be bullish.
The comparable ratio when I wrote my Feb. 5 column was 1.39-1. So, for all intents and purposes, insiders on balance are just as bullish today as then. And, as I noted in early February, the last time insiders were as bullish was in November 2002, just after the end of the 2000-2002 bear market.

To be sure, this does not guarantee that the correction that began last fall is over. But the analogy with November 2002 does remind us that a bottoming process can last a number of weeks: Recall that, even though the 2000-2002 bear market's low occurred in October 2002, the market didn't really take off in earnest until March 2003.

The last bit underlined is worth paying attention to, as the SPX still went down ~10% into the March 2003 lows.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re. Richard Russell

From Prieur du Plessis http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...2008/#more-962

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Improved stock market outlook

“I like the market’s action. PTI rising, new highs increasing while new lows are contracting, short interest is high and rising, and there’s a lot of disbelief in the market’s being able to move higher. As you know, the more skepticism, the better. The whole market situation looks good to me.

“I’m most interested to see whether Lowry’s Selling Pressure breaks down and whether their Buying Power moves up. A lot of the market’s upside progress has been a result of declining supply, but that’s not enough – demand must pick up if this rise is to continue.

“LATE FLASH AFTER THE CLOSE OF THE MARKET – LOWRY’S ISSUES AN INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUY SIGNAL!”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, April 18, 2008.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Don't say you were not warned.

If I were day trading like you do, I think I would succumb to depression, or feelings of soul-emptiness, just from the endless tail-chasing aspect of it. See what the market does? It keeps you buying and selling, year in and year out, chasing it's erratic whims. The markets do this naturally, as a form of breathing - but we humans have to stop breathing, repeatedly, time after time, just to try to keep up with it's herky jerky moves. What a way to live. What a way to invest!

It is truly great stimulation. Wouldn't trade it for anything.

Re: Bullish Information

Yes, I have been sitting here cussing most of today ... indices break out of the trading range variably back to 2/1/08. If they do, I take my wounds, bandage them and go long again.

Don't say you were not warned.

If I were day trading like you do, I think I would succumb to depression, or feelings of soul-emptiness, just from the endless tail-chasing aspect of it. See what the market does? It keeps you buying and selling, year in and year out, chasing it's erratic whims. The markets do this naturally, as a form of breathing - but we humans have to stop breathing, repeatedly, time after time, just to try to keep up with it's herky jerky moves. What a way to live. What a way to invest!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Ha, ha, ha.
The blast off happened today, you were off just one day.

Yes, I have been sitting here cussing most of today--you know, having my short ass handed to me so to speak.

I'm thinking you watch the market as much or more than I do, so this should not come as new information to you, f-j.

The TRANS broke out above all prices back to August 10th. The other equity indices I follow DJI, SPX, NASDAQ, NDX, RUT, VGY are 1.7% to 2.8% below what will represent some signifcant breakouts from the trading range back to Feb 1 as far as highs are concerned. Actually the NDX has broken those older highs and now faces getting above its high of 4/7/08.

Another possible positive, besides everything going up, is the VIX broke rather decisively below its 200 DMA which is has not done since summer of 2006 (if I looking at the lines correctly) when the equity markets launched on a big move up--actually having begun in that summer.

Volume is still punk for the last 3 weeks, and this week so far. I don't know how critical that is. Friday is some sort of options expiration day, so volume may pick due to that for Thurs. and Friday.

I guess my bottom line is whether the indices break out of the trading range variably back to 2/1/08. If they do, I take my wounds, bandage them and go long again.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Having written that one should tighten their seatbelts for a upward blast off tomorrow.

Ha, ha, ha.
The blast off happened today, you were off just one day.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information

Interesting and self explanatory chart below supporting Jim's bullish cause (sorry, I but I could not insert the image):
http://bp2.blogger.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/...NYSE041108.gif

Nice chart, f-j, but oh, did it wear me out to have to click the link!

If "Jim" above refers to me which I guess it may, I'm "bearish" and in some inverse funds since 4/10/08, and added to them today. Equity markets are not nearly oversold right now, nor do they have to become oversold, but there is lots of room to move down more as I see it. The last 90% volume and points day was a negative one on 4/11/08, following three positive ones that began on 3/11/08 that got up to a peak (?temporary or not, I know not) on 4/4 and that was a rally that lasted 18 days. We not seen much in the way of long lived moves one way or the other since October, but my my reckoning using planetary alignment and the positions of the cervical vertebrae of a Rhode Island Red rooster tossed over my left shoulder from an old New Orleans coffee can, my bet is some more downside and perhaps a retest of the Jan and March lows. Having written that one should tighten their seatbelts for a upward blast off tomorrow.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: Bullish Information

Interesting and self explanatory chart below supporting Jim's bullish cause (sorry, I but I could not insert the image):
http://bp2.blogger.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/...NYSE041108.gif

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bullish Information Re: LONG DOLLAR, ANYONE?

By Sy Harding
IT'S TIME TO STOP THE DOLLAR'S PLUNGE! April 11, 2008.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html

There are those who think endless trends rather than cycles, who claim the dollar is toast. But that's always the claim when any asset, the stock market, gold, real estate, or any currency, has been plunging for a number of years. Sentiment becomes extremely bearish and the prevailing thought becomes that there can be no recovery.

There are also those who claim there's nothing anyone can do about the plunging dollar, that central bank intervention would not work.


But history says otherwise.
.
.
In most previous intervention episodes, the country of the targeted currency did most of the 'heavy lifting'. So it is imperative that the U.S.

What would it mean for investors?

We don't have a buy signal on the dollar yet on our technical indicators, but we do have a very oversold condition. At some point a position long the dollar is likely to pay off. Such positions are easily accomplished these days with exchange-traded-funds. A simultaneous position short the euro might be just as profitable. But not yet for either one.

I think this is credible thinking, otherwise I wouldn't post it. Bonar up, then those things traded in bonars could decrease. Gold, oil & other commodities.