Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

[santafe2]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Bolt? As in Bolt of lightning? They should have named it the Chevy Ben, after Franklin and his famous kite.

The new Chevy Dolt cannot be far behind. Looks like a wheelchair but we'll march on Washington if anyone disrespects it.

And I notice the Volt 2 styling is slightly less plain vanilla GM than v.1, but nothing that is going to get anyone excited. What is with the General Motors design studio these days? They need to fire half of them, send the other half out to dealerships to try to flog their bland cars for a few months and maybe they'll smarten up....

It's a bit disappointing but at least they understood they had to increase electric mileage. The new one will go 50 miles on solar panels. It's a sorry state that this is the best high mileage electric vehicle anyone can offer.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Oh oh. The Ultimate jelly bean just inspired the Chevy jelly bean imitator....the new Chevy Bolt. You can't make this up. Nice arcade lighting on the rear view mirrors...step right up folks.

Bolt? As in Bolt of lightning? They should have named it the Chevy Ben, after Franklin and his famous kite.
Looks like it might appeal to the young urban set. Has that non-offensive androgynous look that GM (and others) have fallen in love with; less masculine than the BMW i3, but not as "cute" as a BMW Mini.

And I notice the Volt 2 styling is slightly less plain vanilla GM than v.1, but nothing that is going to get anyone excited. What is with the General Motors design studio these days? They need to fire half of them, send the other half out to dealerships to try to flog their bland cars for a few months and maybe they'll smarten up. Doesn't matter if it is all-electric, hybrid or hoary monster ICE powered...people want to buy something they can be proud to own and show off just like #2, the trophy spouse.

Every now and then there's a flicker of design talent trying to break out at GM. It is usually displayed in their concept cars, never the variants that make it to production unfortunately. Here's this week's example from the Detroit Motor Show...a Buick concept evocative of the very best of the Rivieras that ever rolled out of a GM plant in the 1960s (and a nod to a few of the styling themes from the '66 Olds Toronado). Now if they set up to offer this in a hybrid version I think they would smoke the miserable sales results of the Volt.

[santafe2]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

The Ultimate Driving Machine becomes the ultimate jelly bean

Oh oh. The Ultimate jelly bean just inspired the Chevy jelly bean imitator....the new Chevy Bolt. You can't make this up. Nice arcade lighting on the rear view mirrors...step right up folks.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

...But you get a free license plate if you drive an electric car.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...-for-free.html

The Ultimate Driving Machine becomes the ultimate jelly bean

[jk]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

I see traffic congestion as a bigger threat to long term car sales in China than subsidies or money printing.

Chinese cities may also impose restrictions on cars ownership to encourage people to use trains.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...-and-pollution



But you get a free license plate if you drive an electric car.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...-for-free.html

the chinese market is a big deal for many global automobile manufacturers. this will really push them all in their development of plug-ins, which will also have spill over effects increasing the availability, and sophistication of such vehicles outside of china, as well as lowering costs because of the increased volume.

[touchring]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

I see traffic congestion as a bigger threat to long term car sales in China than subsidies or money printing.

Chinese cities may also impose restrictions on cars ownership to encourage people to use trains.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...-and-pollution

Shenzhen residents were angered last night when authorities imposed a quota on new car number plates without public consultation or advance notice nearly a year after the mayor had ruled out such a move.
The municipal government issued a statement at about 5.45pm announcing that from 6pm, the city would issue 100,000 number plates each year via auctions or lotteries.
Until yesterday, any Shenzhen resident with a valid driver's licence could buy and register a private car. Shenzhen now joins other major cities that have imposed quotas to help curb the growth in private car ownership.
According to the city's transport commission, 60,000 plates will be issued via lottery, including 20,000 for fuel-efficient cars and the remainder for conventional cars. The remaining 40,000 plates, for conventional cars, will be auctioned.

But you get a free license plate if you drive an electric car.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...-for-free.html

Owners of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW)’s i3 electric car in Shanghai can register their vehicles for free after the city exempted them from paying license plate charges of about $12,000.


The city gave out the first free license plate for an i3 on Jan. 6, the Munich-based carmaker said by e-mail. Owners of Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA)’s electric cars also enjoy a waiver from license plate fees in Shanghai, which is among Chinese cities that are restricting new vehicles and providing incentives for alternative-energy autos to curb worsening pollution.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

That quote had to made up - it is just too funny!
Hey, in a trending market, everyone is a genius; just look at all these hard working money managers who have been long SPX for the past 5 yrs; pure genius.

Apparently all those wealthy day trading Mrs. Wongs don't have time to go car shopping any more.

Chinese Car Dealers Find Days of ‘Printing Money’ Ending

Bloomberg News Jan 12, 2015 3:00 PM MT

China’s car dealers are in open revolt over industry practices that have slashed profits, threatening growth prospects for companies such as General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG in the world’s biggest auto market.

Retailers are banding together under the state-backed China Automobile Dealers Association to demand lower sales targets and a bigger share of profit from vehicle sales...

...China vehicle sales in 2014 rose at half the pace of the preceding year, a “new normal” according to BMW after surging growth in past years triggered by government subsidies.

“We can’t just keep on sucking it up,” said Richard Li, 40, a Toyota dealership owner who lost about 300,000 yuan last year after offering markdowns of as much as 16 percent on some models. “We have to negotiate with them and defend our rights. I will stop buying cars from them unless they step up their financial support.”...

...Distributors are also vulnerable because they have no say over the number of new outlets that a manufacturer adds to its sales network, says businessman Carson Guo, 41, who invested 82 million yuan to set up a two-story Mini dealership in Beijing in 2012.

“There are so many Mini stores in China now and dealers have to cut prices to sell cars otherwise we won’t be able to meet sales target,” said Guo, who estimates he has lost more than 20 million yuan since opening the 10,000-square-meter outlet. “Selling cars is costing us money instead of helping us make money. If automakers are not helping us out here, their interests will ultimately be undermined.”...

...“They were printing money,” he said of auto distributors in China. “Those kinds of margins were never sustainable.”

[vinoveri]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

deleted -duplicate post

[vinoveri]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

A year later the US$ continues to rise, the Chinese are still looking for a non-stimulus way to stimulate their economy, and the "buy gold for a glorious future" propaganda seems to be falling on deaf ears. But the efforts to rein in property speculation seems to have worked as the ubiquitous Mrs. Wong speculates elsewhere. Second time in less than a decade stock market fever has overcome the everyday Chinese housewife:

It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market

Bloomberg News Jan 12, 2015 7:54 AM MT

As Chinese individual investors pour back into the world’s hottest stock market, they’re leaving their fingerprints all over the place. The most telltale sign: The Chinese equivalent of penny stocks, assets that have long held an allure for amateurs, are trouncing the benchmark index.

Shares in China’s CSI 300 Index that were quoted below 5 yuan(81 cents) at the end of September have since jumped an average 63 percent. That compares with a 35 percent gain for all index stocks and 11 percent for those priced above 50 yuan.

That outsized rally reflects the growing market impact of inexperienced investors in a country where new stock accounts are opening at the fastest pace since 2007 and individuals comprise about 80 percent of equity trading...

... it’s the price appearing on computer screens that matters most to people like 35-year-old housewife He Mei. As she sees it, the math is simple -- low price equals low risk and lots of value.

“Expensive stocks are risky,” she said by phone from the southwestern city of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province. “Any drops will result in huge losses.”

He says she recorded a return of about 60 percent in her 300,000 yuan account since China cut interest rates in late November, versus 37 percent for the CSI 300. She bought her most profitable stocks at prices below 20 yuan and says she won’t touch shares above 50 yuan...

...The advance in low-priced equities, which is unique to China among the world’s five biggest markets, ratchets up pressure on the nation’s authorities to educate a new class of investors who had until recently avoided stocks in favor of real estate and banks’ wealth-management products...

That quote had to made up - it is just too funny!
Hey, in a trending market, everyone is a genius; just look at all these hard working money managers who have been long SPX for the past 5 yrs; pure genius.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

That's what I think.

I've lived and worked in quite a few places where the economy is dominated by state owned enterprises. In most of these cases there are also usually restrictions on citizens sending or taking money abroad. This severely limits the options for private savings to be invested internally...small service and retail businesses, followed closely by property and stock market speculation are the most common alternatives. This was the situation I observed in the Persian Gulf in 2000. And of course they went through a lovely stock market and property bubble (and bust) led by the regional poster child, Dubai. This seems a common pattern when an authoritarian government starts to mildly loosen its grip on its economy and larger numbers of citizens start to become wealthier...and therefore earn more than they spend.

I suspect the recent official (and "look the other way" unofficial) relaxation on taking money out of China to invest abroad, the creation of the Shanghai gold exchange and the official urgings for citizens to buy gold are all part of finding alternate ways to vent the excess savings and direct them away from another stock market mania, or compounding an already difficult property bubble situation. The "reforms" that are being discussed in China, including promoting more consumption, will take a lot of time. The government and the PBOC know this.

So far the "China is buying gold and will take over the world, crush the USA and the US Dollar" crowd don't make any logical sense for this observer.

A year later the US$ continues to rise, the Chinese are still looking for a non-stimulus way to stimulate their economy, and the "buy gold for a glorious future" propaganda seems to be falling on deaf ears. But the efforts to rein in property speculation seems to have worked as the ubiquitous Mrs. Wong speculates elsewhere. Second time in less than a decade stock market fever has overcome the everyday Chinese housewife:

It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market

Bloomberg News Jan 12, 2015 7:54 AM MT

As Chinese individual investors pour back into the world’s hottest stock market, they’re leaving their fingerprints all over the place. The most telltale sign: The Chinese equivalent of penny stocks, assets that have long held an allure for amateurs, are trouncing the benchmark index.

Shares in China’s CSI 300 Index that were quoted below 5 yuan(81 cents) at the end of September have since jumped an average 63 percent. That compares with a 35 percent gain for all index stocks and 11 percent for those priced above 50 yuan.

That outsized rally reflects the growing market impact of inexperienced investors in a country where new stock accounts are opening at the fastest pace since 2007 and individuals comprise about 80 percent of equity trading...

... it’s the price appearing on computer screens that matters most to people like 35-year-old housewife He Mei. As she sees it, the math is simple -- low price equals low risk and lots of value.

“Expensive stocks are risky,” she said by phone from the southwestern city of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province. “Any drops will result in huge losses.”

He says she recorded a return of about 60 percent in her 300,000 yuan account since China cut interest rates in late November, versus 37 percent for the CSI 300. She bought her most profitable stocks at prices below 20 yuan and says she won’t touch shares above 50 yuan...

...The advance in low-priced equities, which is unique to China among the world’s five biggest markets, ratchets up pressure on the nation’s authorities to educate a new class of investors who had until recently avoided stocks in favor of real estate and banks’ wealth-management products...

[santafe2]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Here's a FRED chart of Canadian and American household debt to GDP ratios. Just sayin', there might be something going on up there. If I could just understand the Molson commercials...maybe I'd make sense of it all.

[GRG55]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

Right...two seasons, Winter and July. I do like to spend July in Canada even if you do serve poutine on your fries.

Two seasons, Winter and Mosquitos.

As for the poutine, we only do that east of the Ottawa River. Out here in the West we serve our potatoes with steak...but if the oil prices don't come back damn soon it'll shortly be a very thin single patty burger with those fries.

[santafe2]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

4. Unlike California, Las Vegas, Phoenix or Florida, it's too cold in Canada to live in a tent in a park, so Canadians HAVE to buy homes.

Right...two seasons, Winter and July. I do like to spend July in Canada even if you do serve poutine on your fries.

[Southernguy]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

7. Land is scarce in Canada - after all "they aren't making any more of it".
All your points are brilliant, but this is, I think, the best

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Yes Virginia...It's a Bubble...

...after all our national anthem is titled "Owe Canada".

LOL
I hope you're happy; for the rest of my life I will chuckle when I hear that song.
My friends will think I like hockey more than I really do.