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Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

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  • #46
    Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by DSpencer View Post
    4 hours later...

    I'm glad that this conversation reminded you to get in your time machine and go back 7 years to realize those profits. You are so full of it.

    Nobody is impressed by you pretending to have made really amazing trades after the fact. If you want to prove that you are using all your unique insights to make huge profits, start a thread with your portfolio. Update it as you make changes. Then people can see for themselves how you perform.
    Kindly refrain from ad homonym attacks. iTulip is a club where we treat each other with respect even when we disagree. Thank you!
    Ed.

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

      Originally posted by Chris Coles View Post
      Sorry to butt in, but it was always my understanding that here on iTulip, we do not appreciate personal attacks of any sort. Period"
      Hey Chris, it my understanding that trolls were dealt with a gollum avatar and then banned? Illogical, non-sensical and repeatedly false comments destroy the iTulip experience and will understandably be a cause of frustration for those who do not abide by such tactics.

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

        Originally posted by FRED View Post
        1) A rigorous independent analysis of the iTulip portfolio since inception was conducted that reveals that it out-performed a range of benchmarks over the period. You are making misrepresentations of fact that could damage the reputation of the site and its host.
        2) You are being disrespectful of the host of this site and of other members.

        We are glad to give you the opportunity to apologize and conduct yourself respectfully going forward.
        FRED, I have edited my post to better convey what I meant. I trust this revised version is not misrepresenting facts and that it is not disrespectful to any members.

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

          Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
          FRED, I have edited my post to better convey what I meant. I trust this revised version is not misrepresenting facts and that it is not disrespectful to any members.
          hmmmm... mebbe a tad heavy handed by the fredster... but i get where he's coming from...

          ej's an inventor... tough row to hoe on da internets. 99% of the pop is copiers/repeaters.

          over the years invented one thing after another... starting with...

          a financial blogger before financial blogs... http://www.itulip.com/knowyourmania.html

          the part i free, part ii paid concept... copied everywhere.

          god knows how many theories he came up with... pilfered by others.

          whole sites based on just 1 old ej article...

          http://www.thebubblebubble.com

          ...looks like circa 2005 reprint...

          http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-Cycle-Janszen

          side bets on how long before we see 'active asset price inflation' w/no attribution?

          itulip doesn't play to doomer emotion ala zero hedge... cuts out 99% of the audience.

          http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...e-You-a-Doomer

          then there's the awesome folks itulip attracts... too many here to name... some passed on. remember sapiens? that guy was amazing!

          you too, dude!

          my advice... 2 kinds of folks in this world... build things up guys & tear things down guys. it's hard to build, easy to tear down.

          be a builder.

          peace out.

          ps... that itulip portfolio analysis is the real deal. heavy on long t-bonds, wonder how well it did since 2010? prolly damn well...

          https://www.investmentnews.com/artic...heard-it-right

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

            Regret the confusion. The first instance was hypotheticals.

            "These aren't the recommended 30 year Treasury bonds EJ spoke of, but it does show the extent of how bonds have been an excellent investment the last
            18 years. I could have also bought long term munis in a taxable account.

            "But wait there is more! EJ's advice was take 15% out of bonds and buy gold at $250 in 2001. Gold is now $1,263. Only 5 times growth in 17 years.
            If I had sold gold in 2011 on the silver sale call the profit would have been higher.

            I wouldn't have needed to buy stocks at all after 2000. Sitting in bonds and gold would have grown my nest with less risk:-)"

            The word that is implied is "if one had" "If one had sold gold on the silver sale" "One wouldn't have needed to buy stocks"
            It was incorrect to use the word I, but was running on little sleep and at 71 that is not a good formula for clear thinking.

            The commodity index (CRB) topped out at the same time that silver (and gold) did in 2011, and
            hasn't been as high since.

            Since beginning to follow this site in 2010 it has been fascinating to watch the economic rubik cube
            revolve in every way possible to try to deal with the aftermath of two crashes.

            Investors have been taken for a roller coaster ride they didn't sign up for. Real money has been
            made and lost. Expectations have been raised and dashed.

            In 55 years of studying markets and sports performance one sees many measures of success
            and failure. Coaches and forecasters make decisions based on known factors and results vary
            all over the place. However at the end of the day there are wins and losses. Short and long term records.

            In trying to convey the big picture of the real result, one looks back to see the short term results, the moves
            that should have been made or avoided. You can look at a coaches or forecasters calls and
            find fault with some, but at the end of the day it's the bottom line, the overall strategic goal plan.

            We have to read carefully and critically (as well as write and edit what one writes before posting).

            We are all learning and trying to help each other. Let that continue.

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

              Thanks MM and I agree completely; iTulip somehow draws an incredibly diverse group of very smart people (and yes, God bless Sapiens he indeed missed an interesting chapter). I also by no means want to dismiss EJs previous hits. These are both very real and commendable.

              I do however firmly believe that the markets are long dead. The few guys in charge have full control. They will get what they want when they want. Therefore, there is not point in trying to make sense of it or forecast any of it.

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                Originally posted by FRED View Post
                Kindly refrain from ad homonym attacks. iTulip is a club where we treat each other with respect even when we disagree. Thank you!
                There seems to be a form of Gresham's Law that could be applied to the internet. Bad forum members drive out good ones. Usually it takes the form of people who are openly rude or post agenda-based content that is irrelevant to current discussion. A good forum usually needs moderation to prevent ad hominem attacks from derailing discussion on actual issues. This site has generally succeeded in enforcing those rules and maintaining a civil debate. But what happens when polite members post, as LargoWinch says, "illogical, non-sensical and repeatedly false comments"?

                What's the polite way of calling someone out for making obviously contradictory statements in order to make themselves appear like a smart investor? I can't help but feel that the real issue is that vt was being obsequious toward EJ by implying his silver call was also secret message to sell gold and that was a good thing. If his point had been that EJ told us to sell gold and that was stupid, I assume he'd be getting hit with a "fraudulent misrepresentation" type message.

                The elephant in the room is that itulip's record after about 2009 is bad for a while and then basically non-existent. Itulip is not just a "once a decade stock market crash prediction website" with 2 great calls. It would be one thing if after 2009 itulip just went dormant and everyone just drew their own conclusions. Instead, EJ was actively warning about the stock market and the impending end of the rally and how miserable everything was going to be for a decade. Then, in my humble opinion, the message got muddled. This is purely my speculative opinion, but it didn't seem like EJ was confident anymore after a few years of...well, being wrong. Not stupid, not clueless, not wrong about everything, but wrong about enough to warn against stocks. If I'm mistaken about all that, then feel free to call me names and banish me forever, but please at least post the articles to prove it to me first.

                What I can't stand is people who now want to pretend that everyone who was reading itulip obviously loaded up on stocks right at the bottom in 2009 and are still holding them today. That isn't what the articles suggested. That isn't what the itulip portfolio did. Sure, it's totally possible that an itulip member could have done exactly the right thing at the right time. But it's silly to say that the key is to only listen to itulip when it's right. That's what led to this whole rant in the first place. Some members want to pretend that if you just squinted the right way, it was perfectly clear that itulip was suggesting do X Y and Z which all turned out great in hindsight and if you couldn't figure it out, that's your own fault for not being savvy like they are. I call BS on that. If that's too rude or if the "new itulip" is predicated on sycophantic insistence that itulip has a perfect track record, then again, feel free to ban me.

                I truly hope this doesn't come across as whiny or disrespectful, but if this viewpoint isn't welcome, I don't belong here anyway.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                  Originally posted by metalman View Post

                  ps... that itulip portfolio analysis is the real deal. heavy on long t-bonds, wonder how well it did since 2010? prolly damn well...
                  Blue line is itulip, red line is 60/40 Total US stocks/Total US bonds.


                  Above is 2010 - 2018. Below is from 2001.


                  You can use the link to change dates etc if you just want to see for example add in 2000. You can also see drawdown, std dev, etc which are generally very favorable for itulip if you are using the 2001-2018 time period. It's actually remarkable how long it took a standard 60/40 portfolio to catch up. 2010, 2011 and 2012 are basically a dead heat and if at any point in that time frame EJ would have said "screw it, itulip is going 60/40 stock bonds", this would be an unbelievable 2 decades. Forecasting is easy in hindsight!

                  The buy and hold stocks/bonds crowd has pulled ahead, but to be fair, I don't think itulip claims to still use this allocation. I'm also starting in 2001 and the results are slightly better if you use the itulip portfolio since 2000, but I don't know have the tools to link the varying allocations over time.


                  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...d2=40&Gold1=15


                  Attached Files

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                    I'll be resubbing to itulip. Not all of us expect perfection in this business. Glad you're back EJ


                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                      Again regret confusion, but here is what I stated.

                      12/3 "Sell silver in April 2011 was also key. Gold and silver generally move together. Since gold is more conservative than silver, a buy call on silver is not necessary.
                      If I own gold in an IRA, I don't worry about taxes. However EJ has stated that for taxable investors there is a capital gains tax on trying to sell an asset.
                      If you sell those taxes reduce capital and how can you tell when to get back in during uncertain times."

                      EJ did not say to sell gold, and the reason is the above tax problem. Also from reading EJ since 2010 and reviewing old posts I believe his view is that gold eventually could go quite a bit higher than the $1,900
                      top. What I was trying to impart was precisely what I said that in an IRA you don't have taxes. As I said today the CRB index, which is the major commodities, also topped. Now I do use technical analysis; EJ has
                      stated that he doesn't I believe. If support is broken then the technician may sell. Of course there are many false breakdowns and breakouts, especially with computerized trading being manipulated. But if
                      I see an entire index break down I at least take notice. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

                      Remember EJ takes a long view and from what I surmise tries to help us avoid the disasters and participate in the long term trend. To criticize his "short term
                      calls" is a misnomer. I wouldn't call his comments calls, I see them as insight of what is going on. They are certainly not recommendations from what I read.

                      The comment I made about the timing of buying after EJ's predicted sell calls in 2000 and 2007 is a simple deduction of exactly what EJ said, plain and simple.
                      He said the market would drop 50% from the 2000 top; the S&P 500 dropped 45%, the NASDAQ 80%. Buying after a huge bear market is not a precise event.
                      However if someone gives you a precise top timing wise with full, exhaustive sate leading up to it, wouldn't you consider his magnitude of decline call an
                      invitation to consider getting back in? There were a lot of factors in late 2002 that suggested it was a good time to consider putting money back to work.

                      The 2007 sell call said a drop of 40%; it was over 50% so one might have gotten in a bit early. but you still would have caught most of this market. And EJ never gave any
                      real sell signals all the way up. He did suggest a pause in February 2014 that at least led me to infer bonds would do better than stock for a short period. As
                      I clearly stated two people can read the same thing and get different opinions.

                      I don't know EJ, Finister, or Fred. I respect what they write and say and find value as a paid subscriber. I was a bit shocked to see a post that accused EJ of "bad" calls since 2009.
                      What calls? I felt like I wanted to at least state what value I derived and that I had not seen any such bad record. As I said some may have felt that EJ should have given clear interim advice
                      on a more frequent basis. But I read that he stated you couldn't get this because of the manipulation by the FED, taking out the "market" equation.

                      "Bad" forum members. How so? maybe not being perfectly clear on one comment that was hypothetical, clearly with the word "if". DC and I have had discussions and we disagree with each other. but I respect him.
                      If someone is not clear ask a question to clarify, but it's not helpful to label someone.

                      We have a good number of excellent posters and compelling information. The inquiry continues.



                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                        I think we need to consider the geopolitcal risks as Ray Dalios has done so, this could easily become a huge issue. Warren Buffett bought Apple at the top of the market without considering the risk of trade war worsening. The Chinese real estate bubble is another underestimated risk.

                        While the stock market might rally further, but the political risks are simpler too much to ignore.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                          Originally posted by touchring View Post
                          I think we need to consider the geopolitcal risks as Ray Dalios has done so, this could easily become a huge issue. Warren Buffett bought Apple at the top of the market without considering the risk of trade war worsening. The Chinese real estate bubble is another underestimated risk.

                          While the stock market might rally further, but the political risks are simpler too much to ignore.
                          Speaking of political risks, today's news that was widely blamed for causing market volatility was the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese Huawei's chief financial officer, in Canada.

                          Mad Money's Jim Cramer weighed in with the opinion that echoed the common, uninformed mis-interpretation that the arrest was politically motivated. Huawei mobile device security warnings issued by US security agencies earlier this year were similarly mis-interpeted as politically motivated.

                          I've been to China on multiple occasions over the past several years while running VirZOOM. I've come in contact with Huawei directly and indirectly in ways that inform a different opinion.

                          The VirZOOM team has worked closely with Huawei and gotten to know the company well.

                          Huawei launched its new VR2 stand-alone VR headset with IMAX and VirZOOM at CES earlier this year.

                          We ran a successful global vSports test later in the year with Huawei iLab engineers in Shenzhen, and VZ employees in Europe and the US east and west coast while Huawei's team collected performance data. VirZOOM continues to explore a Pan Asia distribution agreement with Huawei.

                          I've learned a great deal about how China operates from firsthand experience that I think is relevant to the re-launched iTulip project, knowledge I didn't have before.

                          I located and engaged our product manufacturer Topko located about an hour from Shanghai and have visited on several occasions.

                          I negotiated a major distribution contract with Datang Telecom Technology & Industry Group, a Chinese telecommunications equipment group headquartered in Beijing, China and the 10th largest majority state-owned company in China.

                          I've met with over a dozen Chinese VCs and public companies over the years.

                          Stories I can share behind the paywall but cannot share here in public, given ongoing business between my company and Asian business partners, will help iTulip members understand what China is about and how differences in national objectives and ways of thinking will pose special challenges.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                            Originally posted by EJ View Post
                            Speaking of political risks, today's news that was widely blamed for causing market volatility was the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese Huawei's chief financial officer, in Canada.
                            This might be only the latest news, but I'm not referring to this latest incident. The underlying problem has existed for a long time and the risk only became prominent since a couple years ago.

                            Originally posted by EJ View Post
                            Stories I can share behind the paywall but cannot share here in public, given ongoing business between my company and Asian business partners, will help iTulip members understand what China is about and how differences in national objectives and ways of thinking will pose special challenges.
                            I don't think there's even a national objective in China right now (aside from the propaganda). I'm sure many American politicians in the Donald Trump administration have decades of experience doing business in China.
                            Last edited by touchring; 12-07-18, 02:30 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                              2) I argue here that the Fed has the means to at least forestall an untimely crash, perhaps indefinitely, and has used it in the past
                              If the Fed can forestall a crash, then in theory they can deliberately bring one on. If Trump is a fly in the ointment of globalists as many think, then we might expect a recession timed to ruin Trump's reelection chances. That begs the question... is Trump really a fly in their ointment? If so, is it bad enough to influence the Fed to deliberately sabotage Trump? Or perhaps, if there needs to be a recession anyway, why not conveniently time it if that can be done?

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                                vt,

                                "There are none so blind as those who will not see"

                                You keep asking questions that have already been answered. You keep making statements that have already been refuted. It's clear that you will continue to believe what you already believe and nothing I post will change that.

                                Best of luck.

                                Comment

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