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Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

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  • #31
    Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by vt View Post
    There was a 20% correction in the fall of 2011.
    So you perceived this as a short term prediction?

    Plus 10 years from 2011 is 2021, so there are three more years before a crash.
    Wait...now it was a prediction for a crash that would happen 10 years down the road?

    Why do these mental gymnastics instead of just admitting that these predictions were wrong?

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

      As I said:

      EJ said a 50% correction from the 2000 top and a 40% from the 2007 top.

      An investor would have sold, and then after seeing the magnitude of the correction was with a reasonable percentage of the forecast
      would have bought back in close to a bottom. It is impossible to call the percentages perfectly but the size of the decline certainly was
      accurate.

      Thsoe two forecasts would have been good enough to make good buy decisions once the decline was almost complete.

      But you also miss the two key buy decisions:

      Buy long term bonds in 2000. Look at this chart:


      Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
      Year Return Year Return Year Return Year Return
      1980
      1981
      1982
      1983
      1984
      1985
      1986
      1987
      1988
      1989
      2.71%
      6.26%
      32.65%
      8.19%
      15.15%
      22.13%
      15.3%
      2.75%
      7.89%
      14.53%
      1990
      1991
      1992
      1993
      1994
      1995
      1996
      1997
      1998
      1999
      8.96%
      16%
      7.4%
      9.75%
      -2.92%
      18.46%
      3.64%
      9.64%
      8.7%
      -0.82%
      2000
      2001
      2002
      2003
      2004
      2005
      2006
      2007
      2008
      2009
      11.63%
      8.43%
      10.26%
      4.1%
      4.34%
      2.43%
      4.33%
      6.97%
      5.24%
      5.93%
      2010
      2011
      2012
      2013
      2014
      2015
      2016
      2017
      6.54%
      7.84%
      4.22%
      -2.02%
      5.97%
      0.55%
      2.65%
      3.54%

      From Palm Beach Research


      These aren't the recommended 30 year Treasury bonds EJ spoke of, but it does show the extent of how bonds have been an excellent investment the last
      18 years. I could have also bought long term munis in a taxable account.

      Buit wait there is more! EJ's advice was take 15% out of bonds and buy gold at $250 in 2001. Gold is now $1,263. Only 5 times growth in 17 years.
      If I had sold gold in 2011 on the silver sale call the profit would have been higher.

      I wouldn't have needed to buy stocks at all after 2000. Sitting in bonds and gold would have grown my nest with less risk:-)

      No forecaster can be perfect. You are looking for the few that can give you the best information to then do your due diligence based on your risk tolerance and goals.

      I feel the glass of information EJ imparted was way more than half full. You obviously see it as less than half empty. We interpret things differently.

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

        I think you may be missing the true benefits of following Itulip and Eric's writings. I'm not sure why you are calling it a "macro fund". It's not a fund, it's a website. MY subscriptions to Itulip over the last 15 years hasn't been so much about the "calls" (though of course I'm always excited when he does make a confident prediction), but instead I've found Itulip to be a source of immense knowledge of the caliber and quality one cannot find anywhere else. I read a lot of finance opinions through subscriptions to mutual fund/hedge fund managers and bloggers and authors and none come close to the kind of, what I refer to as, "macro-clarity" that Itulip does. By "macro-clarity", I mean that Eric and Itulip have an incredible ability to capture YUGE concepts of what is truly going on deep down under the surface of all the bullshit that surrounds finance, the macro-economy, and political economy and lay it out in a relatively concise manner that can be understood by the relative layman.

        My best example of this that I can come up with after reading Itulip for 15 years or so is Eric's "GAGFO" or "Good as Gold for Oil" theory. Seriously, this theory and Eric's writings about it have so unbelievably impressed me that it took what was already a very lofty respect for him to new heights. I had never read anything like GAGFO before. Turn on CNBC, read blogs, attend conferences, read newsletters, etc and you will NEVER (at least I have never found it) see a similar theory about the relationship between the USD/Gold/Oil and most importantly, WHY governments (especially foreign governments "non-friendly" to the US) and central banks hold gold at all. Ask the mainstream press or money-managers and it's all about how gold is an inflation-hedge and it's a real asset and a "fear" asset, but you'll hear nothing about the fundamental reason why governments hold (and foreign governments buy) gold in the first place. The GAGFO theory is absolutely brilliant and personally, I consider it ground-breaking. That hypothesis alone is worth my multi-year cost of subscription to Itulip.

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

          Originally posted by vt View Post
          As I said:

          EJ said a 50% correction from the 2000 top and a 40% from the 2007 top.

          An investor would have sold, and then after seeing the magnitude of the correction was with a reasonable percentage of the forecast
          would have bought back in close to a bottom. It is impossible to call the percentages perfectly but the size of the decline certainly was
          accurate.

          Thsoe two forecasts would have been good enough to make good buy decisions once the decline was almost complete.
          Wow, that sounds great. But which investor would have done that? Not someone following the hypothetical itulip portfolio, because that didn't include stocks at any point from 2000 to 2010. Possibly longer, but I don't now what happened to it.

          Originally posted by vt
          If I had sold gold in 2011 on the silver sale call the profit would have been higher.

          "If 'ifs' and 'ands' were pots and pans, there'd be no work for tinkers' hands."

          The call to sell silver was definitive and accurate. It was a very impressive call. However, it was not a call to sell gold so I don't know why you are trying to transform it into one in hindsight. In fact, this is from FRED right afterwards:

          Five ways that EJ's silver sell call was unlike others you may have read:
          • Did not conflate silver and gold markets
          Said gold was likely to fall, too, but not nearly as much as silver, and may even rise. This correction is about the silver market, not precious metals generally, or about gold. In the event, gold declined only 2.5% while silver plunged 12% at the open the next day.

          It's also worth noting that this call didn't help anyone who held the hypothetical itulip portfolio because silver wasn't in it.

          Originally posted by vt
          No forecaster can be perfect.
          I'm just asking for intellectual honesty and transparency, not forecasting perfection. The hypothetical portfolio was amazing because it gave a definitive comparison. There's no soft or vague warnings that get interpreted in whichever way is most favorable after the fact. The portfolio either holds an asset or it doesn't. It also performed spectacularly for a long time.

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

            I don't look to itulip to tell me how to invest. instead, it helps me think. this is certainly true of ej's writings, but also via the comments of some of the members. e.g. prior to the '07 bubble burst, we were all long aware that there was a housing bubble maintained by fraudulent practices in the mortgage industry. e.g. someone [was it ej?] brought to our attention the online petition signed by over 10,000 housing appraisers pointing to the pressures they were under to falsely inflate housing "values." we all knew about ninja loans, the incentives for the ratings agencies to give artificially high ratings to various credit instruments, the fact that mortgage originators had lost interest in credit worthiness because they just sold the paper, and so on.

            with rare exception, within the financial industry, "nobody knew." we knew, we knew it well and we knew it for a long time.

            ej pointed to reductions in quality and quantity as hidden mechanisms in inflation. we documented that in an amusing thread full of product pictures. maybe 5 years later pippa malmgren wrote about what she called "shrinkflation." it was old news here.

            i think about gagfo from time to time, especially with the gold/oil ratio being as high as it is lately. the emergence of the cny valued oil futures contract may change the dollar's role, but i learned about the petrodollar and its emergence here. i might have learned that somewhere else, but this is where it really came to the fore. and this informs my reading about the international monetary system, the significance of the cny denominated oil future, and the increasing frequency of currency swaps and pricing goods in local currencies even as the u.s., via its dominance of the swift settlement system, weaponizes the dollar.

            i had already bought a big position in gold before i discovered itulip, so i can't credit it with that.

            but it was via itulip that i learned about eastham capital, in which i've invested and which has been doing very well.

            i don't come here for market calls.
            Last edited by jk; 12-05-18, 02:25 PM.

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

              A new subscriber to itulip in say 2002 or 2006 could have seen the 2000 and 2001 forecasts, and deduced that if they were in stocks
              the next time to sell call may be giving an indication of how far the market might fall before a bottom is reached. This is very valuable
              insight to have, even if EJ is just writing about the macro environment.

              You may not have read it this way, but there are others lke myself that read differently and derive good guidance as to what to do.

              As for silver, yes it's not gold. But I certainly saw that call as an indication of a top in other commodities including gold, so I sold.
              EJ speciafically looked at gold, as I stated, being a long term investment and didn't wish to pay capital gains taxes then have to decide
              when to get back in. But since mine was in a retirement account taxes weren't an issue.

              Some investors see things that other don't from the same information.

              The shorter term calls are more difficult to interpret. It's more of an art, and one that can't think in those terms should avoid shorter term moves.
              I saw the February, 2014 article as a great call to buy long term bonds to score a one year 23% gain vs. the 14% for stocks. You could have bought
              bonds in early 2014 and held them through early 2016, and made a good profit.

              The 2014 article was also a good warning of the impending problems in 2015 and early 2016.

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                any comments on the yield curve? That's got people flipping out today.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                  Originally posted by jk View Post
                  I don't look to itulip to tell me how to invest. instead, it helps me think.
                  hey jk - given that iTulip is a forecasting electronic newsletter, the accuracy of the forecasts made is an important and obvious benchmark for its users.

                  Unfortunately, since the US equities have bottomed out in Q1 of 2009, the main US equity indices (e.g. S&P500, Nasdaq, DJIA) have provided far superior returns when compared to the iTulip Portfolio Strategy and other alternative/private investments recommended by iTulip.
                  Last edited by LargoWinch; 12-06-18, 11:32 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                    Originally posted by vt View Post
                    Some investors see things that other don't from the same information.
                    Playing tennis without the net maybe fun, but it is not playing tennis.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                      I don't play tennis. I play a multi decade football game.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                        Originally posted by FRED View Post
                        Thanks for investing in VirZOOM.
                        Please PM "FRED" with your full name that was signed up at Wefunder.com/ VirZOOM.
                        We will grant you full access to "iTulip Select" and "VirZOOM" forums.
                        Done!

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                          Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                          Careful what you wish for.

                          iTulip best course of action is not a “re-launch” but a graceful shutdown. This should have been done at least half a decade ago.
                          Eric and iTulip certainly appear to be working hard, but the cold hard truth is that their forecasting ability is simply abysmal. And I mean truly abysmal. I estimate that about only 1 in 10 “predictions” by iTulip have turned out to be accurate. But what is more unfortunate is that some predictions were simply truly stunning misses and completely unrelated to what iTulip was supposed to represent: a macro forecasting forum (see details below).
                          In fairness, I do not think it is possible for virtually anyone to forecast the markets.
                          6- Eric Janszen likes to point out that he was a CEO in technology companies. I am sure that is true, but in May of 2013 Tesla reached for the first time the $110+ mark. And so, iTulip (yes the macro fund) called it a “top” on that stock and recommended a short-sell position be undertaken in or about June that year when the stock was trading at near $90-$100. The rationale was that batteries for these cars were far too fragile and that they would have to be replaced at great costs to Tesla which would eventually go bankrupt due to extended warranties on them. Today Tesla is trading at $360 per share and is selling more luxury sedans than any other automakers in the US. They have been a fantastic investments for those who invested along with Mr. Musk. As for those who shorted the stock starting in June 2013 at around $100 per share – they are not that lucky.

                          Through all those years, the community was aware early of BitCoin. iTulip never ever recommended them. BitCoin, even more so than Nasdaq in 2009, or amazon, or Netflix was the investment of the century. Today, a single bitcoin which cost less than $1 is worth $4000. iTulip never ever addressed the issue of Crypto.

                          I wish iTulip would simply shut down honorably. Everyone can be wrong.

                          However, glossing over the past while still trying to “reboot” and continue on in the forecasting business is not fair to potential new members.


                          It is time for iTulip to move on by closing down.
                          I applaud EJ's efforts to try to forecast the macro storm.

                          I didn't jump on the TruTouch bandwagon, but I have recently joined VirZoom as it aligns with a few macro trends(health/wellness, entertainment, platform strategy, and hopefully community).

                          And it offers free Select subscription which will certainly warm up in the coming few years(hopefully the 5 year for $1k in VirZoom SAFE note scales with the investment! ;) )

                          Anywho, despite all the weirdness in recent years that reduced the signal and increased the noise there's a few things worth mentioning that make this forum interesting:

                          EJ's serendipitous interaction with US energy companies when Fukushima(and nearly Japan) went up like the Death Star.

                          EJ's shift towards entrepreneurship again which dovetailed with my own.

                          EJ's call on "Fortress America" well prior to the 2016 election.

                          I also believe EJ stated that making calls in a "rigged" artificial environment were pointless.

                          The biggest lesson I learned is that the world can remain irrational far longer than I thought possible.

                          I'm pretty sure EJ did make a call on Bitcoin? I could be wrong, but I thought be posted somewhere here that it would head to zero with the only question as to when.

                          I was less than thrilled in recent years with iTulip(lack of content and high value conversation).

                          I'm betting it will change for the better.

                          If there's one thing I hope we can get in the new new iTulip it would have to be "in the moment" surveys, long-form polls, or "X" to mitigate against confirmation/conformity bias in the period ahead.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                            Originally posted by vt@ 10:20 AM
                            If I had sold gold in 2011 on the silver sale call the profit would have been higher.
                            4 hours later...
                            Originally posted by vt@ 2:34 PM

                            As for silver, yes it's not gold. But I certainly saw that call as an indication of a top in other commodities including gold, so I sold.
                            I'm glad that this conversation reminded you to get in your time machine and go back 7 years to realize those profits. You are so full of it.

                            Nobody is impressed by you pretending to have made really amazing trades after the fact. If you want to prove that you are using all your unique insights to make huge profits, start a thread with your portfolio. Update it as you make changes. Then people can see for themselves how you perform.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                              Originally posted by DSpencer View Post
                              4 hours later...

                              I'm glad that this conversation reminded you to get in your time machine and go back 7 years to realize those profits. You are so full of it.

                              Nobody is impressed by you pretending to have made really amazing trades after the fact. If you want to prove that you are using all your unique insights to make huge profits, start a thread with your portfolio. Update it as you make changes. Then people can see for themselves how you perform.
                              Sorry to butt in, but it was always my understanding that here on iTulip, we do not appreciate personal attacks of any sort. Period"

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                                Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                                hey jk - the benefits you draw from iTulip.com doesn't change the fact that iTulip, the "product", is being sold as a forecasting tool: "You heard it first!" or "Who could have known?" or "Forecasting the future since 1998!".

                                The forecasting business sells. It is also sold typically on a membership format yearly or otherwise. That is precisely the iTulip model.

                                Arguing to the contrary is frankly dishonest.

                                Furthermore, predictions and/or positions argued by iTulip in the past (ex: consider buying gold in the late 90s) are revisited and yes, very much celebrated and used to further increase the members base e.g. "we told you to do buy gold at $250/oz and we were right, so please buy a membership and we will tell you what comes next".

                                That jk, is the exact definition of a paid forecasting electronic newsletter.

                                Saddly, as I wrote in details earlier in this thread, forecasts by iTulip after December 2007 have been stunningly wrong.


                                PS: I know I am harsh with iTulip, but that is the cold hard truth. For the record, I truly appreciate the efforts of EJ (love you still man!) and the community. We need more people like that in society. I am also very much angry at myself. I could have said back in 08/09 "hey guys! wait a minute what if...". I didn't. However, I do not benefit financially from iTulip and I do not make claim about the fact that I can provide accurate predictions or forecasts.
                                1) A rigorous independent analysis of the iTulip portfolio since inception was conducted that reveals that it out-performed a range of benchmarks over the period. You are making misrepresentations of fact that could damage the reputation of the site and its host.
                                2) You are being disrespectful of the host of this site and of other members.

                                We are glad to give you the opportunity to apologize and conduct yourself respectfully going forward.
                                Last edited by FRED; 12-06-18, 11:17 AM.
                                Ed.

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