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Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

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  • #16
    Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

    There is a classic book, "When to Sell" by Justin Mamis first published in 1977.

    Wall Street's conflicted 100 buy recommendations for just one sell one was what investors had to rely on. It was always buy, or buy and hold.

    Itulip is a "When to Sell" site and has delivered great value.

    I recall 4 key calls:

    Sell stocks in March, 2000. Buy long term treasuries with proceeds of this sale.

    Buy gold at about $250 in 2001.

    Sell stocks in December, 2007

    Sell silver in 2011.

    The sell stocks in 2000 and 2007 were perfect, as was buy long term bonds in 2000, and gold in 2001.

    Sell silver in April 2011 was also key. Gold and silver generally move together. Since gold is more conservative than silver, a buy call on silver is not necessary.
    If I own gold in an IRA, I don't worry about taxes. However EJ has stated that for taxable investors there is a capital gains tax on trying to sell an asset.
    If you sell those taxes reduce capital and how can you tell when to get back in during uncertain times.

    There was one other minor but profitable call in February, 2014. EJ clearly implied that the 10 year treasury yield could go down from 3% to as low as 1.6%.
    Everyone else said rates would go up. EJ also warned that stocks might have problems.

    While stocks did go up a bit in 2014, the 10 year treasury did almost twice as good! Stocks then had a difficult year in 2015, while long term bonds
    ultimately reached 1.6% in 2016. EJ then warned that yields might go up at least a small amount. The long term bull in bonds was clearly at risk, but
    what a 35 year ride!

    Tesla was a high risk situation, wise to avoid.

    I can get buy recommendations from many sources. If I'm looking at my nest egg I want to grow it, but not lose it. When to sell is
    invaluable. EJ has provided that on a risk, and especially risk adjusted basis.

    As far as buy recommendations you miss the point there too. EJ told you not only when to sell, but how far it would go down.
    When those targets were reached why didn't you buy? You had the map! I don't need someone to hold my hand or waste my time
    when there is nothing to add. EJ did answer questions from time to time.

    The nitpicks are much to do with nothing, and show little understanding of the purpose of itulip. An early warning system only when
    necessary is all that is needed.

    The concise explanation of what is happening and why is also invaluable.

    I look forward to more comment when appropriate from EJ. For now with the Banksters calling for a recession it's helpful
    to understand what is really happening to the global economy. There will also be a sell recommendation at some point and I
    want to be here when it happens. But I also appreciate the information that the current uptrend may well continue for possibly
    another 2 to 4 years as I interpret it.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

      Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
      Great to see you back around metalman
      back atcha, thrifty!

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

        Originally posted by metalman View Post
        hi, largo!

        itulip is back! trolls & all!

        itulip is a "when to get out site"... 1000s of sites tell you when to buy stuff. says

        short tesla? searched for but can't find that. all i can find from EJ re tesla is "never short a cult"... reference to the cult of musk.

        the bullish on oil "peak cheap oil" was wrong, tho... or waaaaay early!
        metalman! good to see you again. i've thought of you from time to time and wondered where you'd gone. now that you've stopped in again, i hope you stick around.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

          Yes, Good to see you Metalman.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

            Originally posted by vt View Post
            There is a classic book, "When to Sell" by Justin Mamis first published in 1977.

            Wall Street's conflicted 100 buy recommendations for just one sell one was what investors had to rely on. It was always buy, or buy and hold.

            Itulip is a "When to Sell" site and has delivered great value.

            I recall 4 key calls:

            Sell stocks in March, 2000. Buy long term treasuries with proceeds of this sale.

            Buy gold at about $250 in 2001.

            Sell stocks in December, 2007

            Sell silver in 2011.

            The sell stocks in 2000 and 2007 were perfect, as was buy long term bonds in 2000, and gold in 2001.

            Sell silver in April 2011 was also key. Gold and silver generally move together. Since gold is more conservative than silver, a buy call on silver is not necessary.
            If I own gold in an IRA, I don't worry about taxes. However EJ has stated that for taxable investors there is a capital gains tax on trying to sell an asset.
            If you sell those taxes reduce capital and how can you tell when to get back in during uncertain times.

            There was one other minor but profitable call in February, 2014. EJ clearly implied that the 10 year treasury yield could go down from 3% to as low as 1.6%.
            Everyone else said rates would go up. EJ also warned that stocks might have problems.

            While stocks did go up a bit in 2014, the 10 year treasury did almost twice as good! Stocks then had a difficult year in 2015, while long term bonds
            ultimately reached 1.6% in 2016. EJ then warned that yields might go up at least a small amount. The long term bull in bonds was clearly at risk, but
            what a 35 year ride!

            Tesla was a high risk situation, wise to avoid.

            I can get buy recommendations from many sources. If I'm looking at my nest egg I want to grow it, but not lose it. When to sell is
            invaluable. EJ has provided that on a risk, and especially risk adjusted basis.

            As far as buy recommendations you miss the point there too. EJ told you not only when to sell, but how far it would go down.
            When those targets were reached why didn't you buy? You had the map! I don't need someone to hold my hand or waste my time
            when there is nothing to add. EJ did answer questions from time to time.

            The nitpicks are much to do with nothing, and show little understanding of the purpose of itulip. An early warning system only when
            necessary is all that is needed.

            The concise explanation of what is happening and why is also invaluable.

            I look forward to more comment when appropriate from EJ. For now with the Banksters calling for a recession it's helpful
            to understand what is really happening to the global economy. There will also be a sell recommendation at some point and I
            want to be here when it happens. But I also appreciate the information that the current uptrend may well continue for possibly
            another 2 to 4 years as I interpret it.
            well said!

            you know... it's human nature to not take personal responsibility. ej was wrong about peak cheap oil but when did he say go long oil? never, so far as i recall. reading grg's missives on the oil market you'd have to be crazy to try to play the oil market... w/derivatives & politics.

            emphatic 'time to sell' ej calls are rare & always contrarian at the time, like the 'sell silver' call... silver bugs all screaming '$200 silver!' & 'buy silver, crush jp morgan!' etc

            this latest call is contrarian that way... but the other way. if you threw a cig butt out the window at random oct. - nov. you hit a guy calling for a crash. looked that way to me! when i clicked on the itulip newsletter in my inbox i expected a crash forecast. nope.

            now here it is dec. 3 & now 'everyone knows' stock markets are on the rebound.

            i don't think that's easy to do.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

              Originally posted by jk View Post
              metalman! good to see you again. i've thought of you from time to time and wondered where you'd gone. now that you've stopped in again, i hope you stick around.
              thx, man. back atcha! sure... i'm here for the 2-year itulip ride to doomsville. wouldn't miss it!

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                Originally posted by metalman View Post


                this latest call is contrarian that way... but the other way. if you threw a cig butt out the window at random oct. - nov. you hit a guy calling for a crash. looked that way to me! when i clicked on the itulip newsletter in my inbox i expected a crash forecast. nope.

                now here it is dec. 3 & now 'everyone knows' stock markets are on the rebound.
                i think everyone knows it's a santa claus rally. i've seen a lot of doubts expressed about 2019. ej appears to be saying the stock market will have a better and longer run than most expect, all courtesy of intervention of course.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                  Originally posted by jk View Post
                  i think everyone knows it's a santa claus rally. i've seen a lot of doubts expressed about 2019. ej appears to be saying the stock market will have a better and longer run than most expect, all courtesy of intervention of course.
                  right... after the fact. i'm talking about before nov. 23 when ej says he first posted the commentary after 2 weeks working on it.

                  google search on 'santa claus rally 2018' gets me this...

                  New chart suggests stocks won't stage a year-end rally
                  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/char...ll-street.html

                  Don’t Wish for a Santa Claus Rally. Prepare Instead.
                  https://www.kiplinger.com/article/in...e-instead.html

                  Don’t Count on a ‘Santa Claus Rally’ to Save the Stock Market
                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/wha...lly-1542837588

                  ...playing to the doomy mood.

                  the santa claus rally 'forecasts' came out after nov. 27... after the market started to rally.

                  wild how sentiment turns on a dime!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                    Originally posted by vt View Post

                    Itulip is a "When to Sell" site and has delivered great value.

                    I recall 4 key calls:

                    Sell stocks in March, 2000. Buy long term treasuries with proceeds of this sale.

                    Buy gold at about $250 in 2001.

                    Sell stocks in December, 2007

                    Sell silver in 2011.

                    The sell stocks in 2000 and 2007 were perfect, as was buy long term bonds in 2000, and gold in 2001.
                    ...
                    As far as buy recommendations you miss the point there too. EJ told you not only when to sell, but how far it would go down.
                    When those targets were reached why didn't you buy?
                    Originally posted by EJ
                    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/15700-Debt-deflation-Bear-Market-Update-Part-I-First-Bounce-officially-over-Eric-Janszen

                    Posted May 25, 2010


                    Debt-deflation Bear Market Update - Part I: First Bounce officially over (really)


                    Why stock markets, oil prices, but not precious metals prices are falling

                    • FIRE Economy re-start flames out
                    • Housing bust recession not over
                    • Fed selling deflation, again


                    Only 27 days? Feels like years since the DOW stood more than 1000 points taller back when we published The Next Crash on April 28. Not a forecast of an imminent correction. For that you needed to heed our man Finster's April 21 post Correction Due Shortly. By coincidence stocks did “flash crash” a week later on May 6. As is our tradition here since 1998—an old age home, by Internet standards—we poured a bucket of cold water over fevered bullishness that was beginning to infect our modest home to fans of dispassionate economic and market analysis.

                    Several took me out to the woodshed in the comments area for failing to direct them back into the stock market like a good stock salesman in March 2009 when we trumpeted the start of the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market. Not that we did anything to stop them. But let’s just say we were not encouraging, announcing an end to the rally several times as our way of trying to keep them out of harm's way.

                    The din of protests soon quieted to a hush a week after we posted as fear of losing money pushed aside the fear of losing out on a rally based on half-true data, wishful thinking, momentum, debt, money growth, and reversible capital flows. But a context-free, event driven media cuts and pastes facts and fantasy together into a Photoshop quasi-reality that changes hourly, so 27 days feels like another era.

                    The long decay

                    Officially, we’ve been out of the stock market since March 2000 when the S&P500 traded 45% higher than today in real terms...

                    Red highlights are mine. In case you don't feel like looking it up, this is essentially the lowest the DOW and S&P500 have been since that time.

                    Originally posted by EJ

                    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...d-Eric-Janszen


                    Posted June 21, 2011


                    The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood

                    ...

                    Long time readers know that since 1998 I have prided myself in making neither optimistic nor pessimistic but realistic assessments of our economic future and how to best invest for ourselves and those we love.

                    A survey of our members in June 2007 in the widely read article Are You a Doomer? revealed that the typical iTuliper is neither optimistic nor pessimistic. On our 1 to 10 iTulip Doomer Scale, the average of several hundred survey participants came in at 5.

                    At the time, I was forecasting a massive financial crisis and recession as fallout from the collapse of the housing bubble. That no doubt struck our more optimistic members as excessively doomerish.

                    After completing this analysis, I warn the more optimistic among you that I am moving closer to a 3 on the scale.

                    This time it is my unfortunate duty to inform the iTulip community of my bleak assessment of prospects for investing over the next ten years. I draw this conclusion after three years of investigation.
                    ...
                    As grim as the past decade was for US stock market investors, prospects for stocks in the coming decade are even worse.
                    Are you saying that you use itulip for "when to sell" advice and yet remained heavily invested in stocks during 2010 and 2011? How does that make any sense?

                    There was a time when itulip had a "hypothetical portfolio". This allowed for an honest and objective evaluation of itulip's forecasting ability. At one time there was even an article where a comparison was done between this portfolio and more traditional investment choices. Then that all went away. I think if we're being honest, it's because the forecasting record started to unravel.

                    I feel a bit rude posting this in EJ's digital living room, but it's disingenuous to pretend that itulip's record is 2-4 calls that have all been correct. Does "announcing the end of the rally several times" really not count as a "call"?

                    Predicting the future of the markets is hard, maybe nearly impossible. Getting it right some of the time may still be valuable. Nonetheless, it feels like there is a huge amount of cherry picking going on here.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Typos: Economic Crisis Avoidance

                      Typos: list
                      `1) months since last recession
                      2) student loan 1.2 trillion in 2017
                      _________________________

                      10 years is 120 Months, so the "months since recession" should be around 120, not 235. This does not affect the substance of the argument,
                      but I'd be happy to be official proof reader for EJ before he posts.

                      Originally posted by EJ View Post

                      Worries about a crash and new crisis are understandable. A total of 245 months have passed since the last recession, longer than the most extended period between recessions in US history when 238 months passed between the end of the 1991 recession and start of the 2001 recession. The perception that “we’re overdue” is valid from an historical perspective.






                      student loan callout should say 1.2 Trillion 2017, not 2007:
                      Last edited by Polish_Silver; 12-04-18, 12:28 PM. Reason: more typos found

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Typos: Economic Crisis Avoidance

                        large scale asset purchases




                        Gratke Wealth, LLC Retweeted Daniel Lacalle
                        “Fed owns 12.4% of U.S. total public debt. ECB/BoJ balance sheets exceed 35%/70% of GDP. BoJ top 10 shareholder in 90% of Nikkei. ECB owns 9.2% of European corp. bond market and > 10% of main European countries’ total sov. debt. BoE owns between 25% and 30% of the UK’s sov. debt”

                        https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/stat...69942422433794

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

                          There was a 20% correction in the fall of 2011. Plus 10 years from 2011 is 2021, so there are three more years before a crash.

                          At the time this was written EJ may have not known of the extent the Fed and other banks would take to keep markets from falling.
                          I do recall other articles where EJ did touch on how the Fed was manipulating markets to keep the bull market moving up.

                          There was also a concise warning in February, 2014 that warned of difficulties, but not an all out call to sell. Some have called
                          2015 a mini recession, and value stocks were down close to 7%.

                          In the latest article EJ notes that the next downturn could be worse, but central banks could keep this going longer.

                          Any prediction is subject to change and fine tuning. I feel this has been provided when you read the entire body of work.
                          As a long term investor I can ride through up to a 25% drop, but also appreciate mid term calls that enhance fine tuning
                          of retirement accounts.

                          This is all based on what I read here, as I have no connection with anyone who posts here, including EJ.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Typos: Economic Crisis Avoidance

                            Originally posted by jk View Post
                            large scale asset purchases




                            Gratke Wealth, LLC Retweeted Daniel Lacalle
                            “Fed owns 12.4% of U.S. total public debt. ECB/BoJ balance sheets exceed 35%/70% of GDP. BoJ top 10 shareholder in 90% of Nikkei. ECB owns 9.2% of European corp. bond market and > 10% of main European countries’ total sov. debt. BoE owns between 25% and 30% of the UK’s sov. debt”

                            https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/stat...69942422433794
                            Total aside, but it's weird the sudden, meteoric rise of the Falun Gong paper The Epoch Times. I'd see the broadsheet in NYC from time to time. Just odd that this year so many more people have linked me to it. Used to be they were focused mostly on stories about China. Suddenly they seem to be much more focused on finance and American politics. Then there's this bit of weirdness. I mean, press and religious groups are free to cheerlead or detract from any public figure they like. So it's not weird to me that Falun Gong would be big fans of President Trump. But what is weird is the sudden heightened US-centric profile for such a formerly niche publication.
                            Last edited by dcarrigg; 12-04-18, 04:47 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Typos: Economic Crisis Avoidance

                              they want more hits on their website, so they have to have broader and more emotional appeal. i had no idea that the source of that quote was linked to folun gong, but i don't care as long as the numbers are right. i didn't check the numbers, but i do know that the boj owns the whole japanese gov't bond market- sometime in the last few weeks i came across an article saying that there had been NO TRADES in the japanese gov't bond market for a week! and i know the boj has been buying japanese etf's in size. the fed got up to $4trillion on its balance sheet, while the u.s. debt was about $20trillion. of course part of the fed's portfolio were mortgage obligations, so you can't do the math accurately, but the basic thrust is true.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Typos: Economic Crisis Avoidance

                                Originally posted by jk View Post
                                they want more hits on their website, so they have to have broader and more emotional appeal. i had no idea that the source of that quote was linked to folun gong, but i don't care as long as the numbers are right. i didn't check the numbers, but i do know that the boj owns the whole japanese gov't bond market- sometime in the last few weeks i came across an article saying that there had been NO TRADES in the japanese gov't bond market for a week! and i know the boj has been buying japanese etf's in size. the fed got up to $4trillion on its balance sheet, while the u.s. debt was about $20trillion. of course part of the fed's portfolio were mortgage obligations, so you can't do the math accurately, but the basic thrust is true.
                                Oh, I'm not doubting the numbers generally. Just an aside--little tangent that was on my mind. I guess it's not just in the US. In Berlin they've attached themselves to the far right AfD party. In fact, they've become the unofficial paper of Pegida. It's truly strange. They've always been against the Chinese Communist Party. That's kind of central to Falun Gong identity. But to throw their hats in with one western political party over others has not been their MO. The goal was omnipartisan support for Taiwan, etc. They're rumored not to care about profit either, the physical paper has always been free so far as I remember (hence why I'd see it around). Something very strange is going on with that paper.

                                Comment

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