The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Your Dad was a WWI pilot! Amazing.

I try to explain to my kids how all this history stuff isn't all so ancient as it seems. My grandmother used to tell me about feeling the bullet still under her grandfather's skin from the American Civil War! Sometimes it fails to sink in just how real these events were.

May I be so bold as to suggest that you take your children to the National Air Museum at Dayton Ohio. One of the gigantic hangers is devoted to WW1 aircraft and the other to all the development aircraft during the great leap forward in the 1950' and 1960's. (From the web site it looks a lot bigger than when I saw it in the 1980's). http://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/ Also, expect to spend the whole day there, there is a lot to see. One of my best days out ever.

[flintlock]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Your Dad was a WWI pilot! Amazing.

I try to explain to my kids how all this history stuff isn't all so ancient as it seems. My grandmother used to tell me about feeling the bullet still under her grandfather's skin from the American Civil War! Sometimes it fails to sink in just how real these events were.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

1944 must have been a very good year since we both were born that year! I only knew one WWII vet who would talk much about what he did and I have yet to find a Vietnam vet who will talk at all.

Vintage stuff Jiimbergin, perhaps best in the house??

[jiimbergin]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Having been born in 1944 I can only record the extensive dinner conversations with my father who, at the age of 18 was posted to France to fly Spads and SE5a's with a Polish squadron. They averaged about six weeks lifespan and I remember seeing a map with the locations of all the downed aircraft. By all accounts they partied like there was no tomorrow and as kids we were often "treated" to his renditions of Polish war cries. He was once loaned a brand new Bristol fighter with a optical sight through the control panel and he tried to drop his bombs using that as he flew down on a target, pulling the toggles to release the two bombs. When he flew back to base, he arrived to find the airfield had a lot of people running around the field holding hands and he thought the party had spilled out onto the airfield. But when he went to land, it turned out that one of the bombs was hanging from his undercarriage and they were trying to warn him. The aircraft blew up as he landed, but he survived. He had lots of stores like that. But the truth is, he lost all his friends and the whole thing deeply affected him.

I had a similar meeting with an old man in Salisbury in the 1990's, bolt upright and steely strong but very frail. He turned out to be called "Pinky" because he was THE Regimental Sergeant Major for the Manchester Regiment whose parade uniform was pink. He had been the non commissioned officer that called the entire regiment to attention and then gave the order to march out of Singapore under the surrender to the Japanese. He related his experiences at the hands of the regiments captors; a truly harrowing story.

In the 1970's I worked in a section that also had a man that had fought in Burma; he would not talk about it. Not one word.

War effects everyone differently, dependent upon their role and responsibilities; war is not ever to be taken lightly; it has a devastating effect upon the strongest man or woman.

1944 must have been a very good year since we both were born that year! I only knew one WWII vet who would talk much about what he did and I have yet to find a Vietnam vet who will talk at all.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

I'm still amazed that in WWI countries could get young men to subject themselves to such conditions. Trench warfare has to be about as bad as it gets. I just watched a documentary on Gallipoli, and I think it said that at any one time about 2/3 of the men had dysentery. Then throw in lack of decent food and water, broiling heat, freezing cold, the stench of thousands of dead bodies, and of course the idiot uncaring commanders. Yet for the most part, the British maintained discipline throughout the war. Amazing.

Having been born in 1944 I can only record the extensive dinner conversations with my father who, at the age of 18 was posted to France to fly Spads and SE5a's with a Polish squadron. They averaged about six weeks lifespan and I remember seeing a map with the locations of all the downed aircraft. By all accounts they partied like there was no tomorrow and as kids we were often "treated" to his renditions of Polish war cries. He was once loaned a brand new Bristol fighter with a optical sight through the control panel and he tried to drop his bombs using that as he flew down on a target, pulling the toggles to release the two bombs. When he flew back to base, he arrived to find the airfield had a lot of people running around the field holding hands and he thought the party had spilled out onto the airfield. But when he went to land, it turned out that one of the bombs was hanging from his undercarriage and they were trying to warn him. The aircraft blew up as he landed, but he survived. He had lots of stores like that. But the truth is, he lost all his friends and the whole thing deeply affected him.

I had a similar meeting with an old man in Salisbury in the 1990's, bolt upright and steely strong but very frail. He turned out to be called "Pinky" because he was THE Regimental Sergeant Major for the Manchester Regiment whose parade uniform was pink. He had been the non commissioned officer that called the entire regiment to attention and then gave the order to march out of Singapore under the surrender to the Japanese. He related his experiences at the hands of the regiments captors; a truly harrowing story.

In the 1970's I worked in a section that also had a man that had fought in Burma; he would not talk about it. Not one word.

War effects everyone differently, dependent upon their role and responsibilities; war is not ever to be taken lightly; it has a devastating effect upon the strongest man or woman.

[flintlock]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

I'm still amazed that in WWI countries could get young men to subject themselves to such conditions. Trench warfare has to be about as bad as it gets. I just watched a documentary on Gallipoli, and I think it said that at any one time about 2/3 of the men had dysentery. Then throw in lack of decent food and water, broiling heat, freezing cold, the stench of thousands of dead bodies, and of course the idiot uncaring commanders. Yet for the most part, the British maintained discipline throughout the war. Amazing.

[flintlock]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

I'm not advocating something needs to be done, but for discussion purpose, I think don't I can agree that radical countries that have nukes will not pose a danger to world peace in the long term. By long term, I'm looking at a 20-30 years time frame.

Nowadays, countries just don't attack each other directly or openly. Remember the Mumbai terrorists attack? Some Indians believe that the Pak military or spy agencies are behind it. Just a couple of men with AK 47 can wreck so much havoc. If something similar happens 30 years into the future, it maybe with one of the dudes carrying a suitcase nuke device.

I should have said, "With nukes, its the countries that don't have 'em that feel MOST threatened". Does anyone in the US really fear a direct nuclear attack by Iran? Probably not. What we do fear is a change of the status quo that an attack by Iran on a neighbor would bring about. Or any assistance Iran may give to terrorists who would like to nuke America. My point was that the most intimidated are those countries in the region with Iran who do not have the ability to retaliate, nor close enough relations with a power that can. Historically its the little guys who get treated like trading cards in the aftermath of wars. "I'll give you Alsace in return for Slovakia and a future country to be named at a later date".

[Verrocchio]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

The problem starts when you try to dislodge them, they will go crazy

Like ticks, I suppose. If you go after one, you want to make sure you get the head.

[touchring]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Frankly the only difference is in scale, not in reaction - whether 'democratic' government or not.

Or do you ascribe what is happening in the US as happening due to 'freedom' as opposed to 'hanging on to power'?

I consider the USA a half democracy at best.

[c1ue]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

The problem starts when you try to dislodge them, they will go crazy, their power is like an indispensable part of their life - this is somewhat similar to a love stricken lady, whose love can change to frightening hate. All dictatorships will end up in disaster regardless of how well they start off.

Frankly the only difference is in scale, not in reaction - whether 'democratic' government or not.

Or do you ascribe what is happening in the US as happening due to 'freedom' as opposed to 'hanging on to power'?

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

There are trade offs in life, nothing is perfect. If you thought you found a perfect system, that is because you have not seen the end result.

Or as might be expressed another way - TANSTAAFL

[touchring]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

Living your life in an authoritarian country doesn't itself convey any information.

How can you know what exactly is going through the minds of the 'authorities'?

As a very young child, your parents are god.

As a teenager, often your parents become the devil.

As a young parent, your parents become a godsend.

Yet the parents are the same.

They've got excellent propaganda. There's an adage, If Its Too Good To Be True, Its Not True. Don't believe too much in spins. There is no free lunch or saints iin this world, especially so when it comes to politics and power.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...745c7a17220a06

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Armed Chinese soldiers allegedly beat a Vietnamese fisherman and threatened other crew members before driving them out of waters near disputed South China Sea islands claimed by both countries, a Vietnamese official said Thursday.


A Chinese navy ship chased the fishermen before dispatching a speedboat with 10 soldiers armed with automatic rifles and batons, a border official in Vietnam's central Quang Ngai province said on condition of anonymity, citing policy. The soldiers boarded the fishing boat near the contested Paracel Islands.


The soldiers punched and kicked the Vietnamese captain and threatened nine other crew members in the July 5 incident, he said, adding the captain was not injured.
The Vietnamese official said the Chinese soldiers confiscated one ton of fish from the boat and drove it from the area. The fishermen continued working before coming to shore and reporting the incident to authorities Wednesday, he said.

If you've not experienced their system, it is not easy to understand the mindset of dictators. Is Gaddafi really that bad? Do you know that Libya has free education and healthcare that Americans will envy? Libya is not Egypt, life is actually quite good in Libya.

The problem starts when you try to dislodge them, they will go crazy, their power is like an indispensable part of their life - this is somewhat similar to a love stricken lady, whose love can change to frightening hate. All dictatorships will end up in disaster regardless of how well they start off.

There are trade offs in life, nothing is perfect. If you thought you found a perfect system, that is because you have not seen the end result.

[c1ue]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

The US military policy in the Middle East spun an OBL, led to Iraq war, Afghanistan war, which depleted US treasury, created the opportunity for credit surplus authoritarian nations such as Russia and China to rise, acquire technology and power.

And why do you say this behavior is due to military policy?

What makes you not consider the possibility that said military policy is an outgrowth of economic policy?

Of ideological and/or nationalistic goals?

Having lived all my life in an authoritarian country, I think I know them well enough. Their ultimately goal is not economic development to better the lives of the people or even profits, but power and control, the former is just a means to fulfill the latter. To secure that power, everything can be sacrificed, the people, religion, god, even their own families members, e.g. Gaddafi. The religious will say he is possessed by the demon.

Living your life in an authoritarian country doesn't itself convey any information.

How can you know what exactly is going through the minds of the 'authorities'?

As a very young child, your parents are god.

As a teenager, often your parents become the devil.

As a young parent, your parents become a godsend.

Yet the parents are the same.

[Verrocchio]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

PS

I can imagine that a well-intentioned person might respond that the elusive nature of most "facts" is well understood, and this is precisely why we need debate, discussion, and, hopefully, dialogue, so that we can arrive at a better understanding, and so forth. As Bart has explained, experience, most particularly with the medium of communication that we are using, has taught us that this applies wonderfully well to many topics, but not to all, and certainly not to this one.

[Verrocchio]

Re: The Next Ten Years – Part I: There will be blood - Eric Janszen

"My approach is avoid the emotions and look at hard facts."

Good luck with that, Touchring! Let us know how that works out for you. Facts are, in fact , slippery things. Why? Because, as stated succinctly in the abstract below: All facts are a function of interpretation. This applies equally well to so-called historical facts, not just legal facts.
Houston Law Review, Vol. 45, 2009
Temple University Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2008-68

Abstract:
What are facts? More precisely, what are facts within the contemplation of law? We might sensibly seek an answer to this question in the law of evidence, where we find a distinction that seems to furnish the key to understanding just what the law means by a fact - the distinction between direct and circumstantial evidence. For the promise of direct evidence is that it brings the fact-finder in direct contact with crucial facts about the instant dispute. By contrast, circumstantial evidence is said to give clues that require inferences to connect them to the critical facts of the case. And so, if we can understand how direct evidence enables us to apprehend facts in an unmediated way, then we should be able to understand facticity itself.

The problem with the direct-circumstantial distinction is not just that common beliefs about its significance turn out to be false. (For example, circumstantial evidence is not generally less reliable than direct evidence.) A more fundamental problem is that the distinction makes no logical sense. There simply is no category of evidence that brings us into direct contact with crucial facts, because no such contact is possible.

Fortunately, it turns out that understanding the illusory nature of the direct-circumstantial distinction gives us just the purchase we need to understand what facts are in the context of legal decision-making - and, by extension, what facts are generally. All facts are a function of interpretation. This unavoidability of interpretation makes all facts a matter of inference, and consequently all evidence - direct or circumstantial - nothing more or less than a contribution to that inferential process.