Housing Bubble Correction

[KenD]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Appears that we are between steps E and F and the process is running 18 months ahead of forecast.

Three questions, if I may...

1.) When can we anticipate step G bottoming out since we are currently running 18 months ahead of schedule?

2.) What major markets will look most attractive and which markets will shape up to be the worst?

3.) What is the general consensus of the actions being taken politically and how will they effect this process?

Thanks all,

Ken

[zoog]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Appears that we are between steps E and F and the process is running 18 months ahead of forecast.

Interesting. Locally I feel like we are still at B, but we have always lagged behind in the Pacific NW. With discussions of an impending balance of payments crisis, I get the feeling we may suddenly catch up to the national picture.

[thedanimal]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Appears that we are between steps E and F and the process is running 18 months ahead of forecast.

Emphasis mine. WOW.

[FRED]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

I would love to see an iTulip update to where we are on this chart:

Appears that we are between steps E and F and the process is running 18 months ahead of forecast.

[dbarberic]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

I would love to see an iTulip update to where we are on this chart:

[santafe2]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Wow! Thanks for the pic.

Apparently this is the first coast-to-coast white Christmas in more than 50 years in Canada. Wonder if Starving Steve has dug himself out of his East Sooke cabin yet?

Let's see now. Chinese electricity production down 8%. Less coal being burned. Voila, global cooling??? :rolleyes: Maybe the world needs an "inverted" carbon tax, at least during the coming depression?

Merry Christmas.

And ax; a tip of the hat and many thanks to all those, like you, working through the holidays on our behalf.

You're welcome and very best of the holidays back to you.

As for the warming/cooling discussion, I'm much less inclined toward the "everyone has an opinion" camp after reading a few papers over this last week off from work. I'll spend more of my iTulip time in 2009 organizing this point of view but I'm sure warming is the long term direction.

[ax]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Wow! Thanks for the pic.

Apparently this is the first coast-to-coast white Christmas in more than 50 years in Canada. Wonder if Starving Steve has dug himself out of his East Sooke cabin yet?

Let's see now. Chinese electricity production down 8%. Less coal being burned. Voila, global cooling??? :rolleyes: Maybe the world needs an "inverted" carbon tax, at least during the coming depression?

Merry Christmas.

And ax; a tip of the hat and many thanks to all those, like you, working through the holidays on our behalf.

My pleasure. Aside from a little early Christmas morning trauma, was one of the easiest days in a long time. Paying for it today though...

[GRG55]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Here's the real thing. It snowed as much as 8" on Christmas day in the Middle East. This picture is from this morning in Gaza.

[ATTACH]912[/ATTACH]

Wow! Thanks for the pic.

Apparently this is the first coast-to-coast white Christmas in more than 50 years in Canada. Wonder if Starving Steve has dug himself out of his East Sooke cabin yet?

Let's see now. Chinese electricity production down 8%. Less coal being burned. Voila, global cooling??? :rolleyes: Maybe the world needs an "inverted" carbon tax, at least during the coming depression?

Merry Christmas.

And ax; a tip of the hat and many thanks to all those, like you, working through the holidays on our behalf.

[santafe2]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Sorry but no. It was a one day biz trip and I didn't take my camera. The photo is from SkiDubai stock. But I am sure they won't mind the publicity. And why are you working so late on Christmas Eve. Wasn't Thanksgiving enough of a marathon for you good folks? Go home and have some rum and eggnog...:cool:

Here's the real thing. It snowed as much as 8" on Christmas day in the Middle East. This picture is from this morning in Gaza.

SnowInGaza.jpg

[ax]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Ouch is right. As I've posted before I watched something very similar up close during the 1980's resource bust in Western Canada. The real trouble started when banks stopped renewing mortgages [fixed rate mortgage terms rarely exceeded 5 years in Canada back then]. The market fell steadily for about 5 years before it bottomed. What was really surprising looking back at the data is that house prices stopped falling a few months before the 1986 oil price collapse when Saudi opened the taps to discipline other OPEC members for cheating on quotas.

One recollection of that period was driving around the city 'burbs and turning a corner onto a street and seeing virtually every house on the block with a "For Sale" sign planted on the lawn. Yep, the houses were all built at the same time, approaching the 5-year old mark, and too many couldn't get renewed. Three blocks over everything was fine because those folks still had another 6-12 months to renewal and had not yet lost all hope...

There's another iTulip member [WorldTraveller?] who was in Texas [Houston?] during the same period, where much the same was happening as oil busted.

I'm glad that you referenced that time period in Texas. It's one of the things I use to gauge the potential depression here. People down here are completely oblivious to the fact that it may take 10-20 years for houses to regain their value, if ever. They act like I'm crazy when I say there is a precedent (Texas) for such a thing. They also seem to forget that property values went nowhere in Florida during the 90s due to Andrew. Just fortunate my employment niche is holding up, for now. Take care and happy holidays. Always appreciate your posts.

[GRG55]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Got to work tomorrow anyway, sick people don't take a day off it turns out. On a related housing issue, without risking starting a new thread, on top of the 55% of refis that are going belly up, turns out those of us with good credit may not be able to get that shiny new mortgage. A friend of mine in my development here in S. Florida who put 20% down and has a credit score near 800 was told today that his house is too underwater versus his current loan to qualify for their refi terms. The current appraised value didn't exceed 80% of his original loan. Ouch. Starting to wonder every day if it's worth paying my current mortgage.

Ouch is right. As I've posted before I watched something very similar up close during the 1980's resource bust in Western Canada. The real trouble started when banks stopped renewing mortgages [fixed rate mortgage terms rarely exceeded 5 years in Canada back then]. The market fell steadily for about 5 years before it bottomed. What was really surprising looking back at the data is that house prices stopped falling a few months before the 1986 oil price collapse when Saudi opened the taps to discipline other OPEC members for cheating on quotas.

One recollection of that period was driving around the city 'burbs and turning a corner onto a street and seeing virtually every house on the block with a "For Sale" sign planted on the lawn. Yep, the houses were all built at the same time, approaching the 5-year old mark, and too many couldn't get renewed. Three blocks over everything was fine because those folks still had another 6-12 months to renewal and had not yet lost all hope...

There's another iTulip member [WorldTraveller?] who was in Texas [Houston?] during the same period, where much the same was happening as oil busted.

[ax]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Got to work tomorrow anyway, sick people don't take a day off it turns out. On a related housing issue, without risking starting a new thread, on top of the 55% of refis that are going belly up, turns out those of us with good credit may not be able to get that shiny new mortgage. A friend of mine in my development here in S. Florida who put 20% down and has a credit score near 800 was told today that his house is too underwater versus his current loan to qualify for their refi terms. The current appraised value didn't exceed 80% of his original loan. Ouch. Starting to wonder every day if it's worth paying my current mortgage.

[GRG55]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

Your pic? Perfect for the iTulip holiday newsletter, no?

Sorry but no. It was a one day biz trip and I didn't take my camera. The photo is from SkiDubai stock. But I am sure they won't mind the publicity. And why are you working so late on Christmas Eve. Wasn't Thanksgiving enough of a marathon for you good folks? Go home and have some rum and eggnog...:cool:

[FRED]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

I know. I've been there. Tough to call it "dirty" oil after this transformation, isn't it...:rolleyes:

Your pic? Perfect for the iTulip holiday newsletter, no?

[GRG55]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction

In Dubai they burned oil to make snow -- indoors. :cool:

I know. I've been there. Tough to call it "dirty" oil after this transformation, isn't it...:rolleyes: