The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

ayuh...

just another day in another polynesia'n paradise ?

and the inflation in ice cream is now starting to crimp my style ...
(i've stopped buying haagen daz and gone with tillamook - their 'oregon blueberry patch' is broke da mouth = da kine, brah ;)

I thought folks in Hawaii liked shave ice?

I wonder if Chinese buyers have replaced the Japanese buyers in Hawaii from 25 years ago?

We're certainly seeing no shortage of Mainland Chinese buyers purchasing property in NZ.

A very sharp and double edged sword.

Everyone(who is on the property ladder or earns commissions from property sales or home equity loan consumer purchases) loves fickle foreign buyers when they BUY.

What happens if/when they turn into fickle foreign SELLERS?

-----

I would love to see a survey of property owner behavior broken into two categories:

1)local/indigenous folks(how much equity do they have and how much would they accept losing if financially distressed)

2)foreign "lifeboat/bolthole buyer" folks(Chinese mostly)(how much equity do they have and how much would they accept losing if financially distressed)

I suspect #1 loves #2 on the way up, but I suspect #1 will be hating on #2 on the way down.

How many 100% equity folks in #2 distress sales does it take per suburb to reboot average comparables far lower and disrupt the real estate market?

-----

What did the real estate market look like in places like Hawaii when the Japanese buyers stopped buying and started selling under financial stress?

And that would have been a far more rational and healthy market with more cushion and a bigger tool box to absorb the downside.

[lektrode]

Re: The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

We've just seen mortgage rates here in NZ dip below 5% for the first time.


Meanwhile, dairy prices.. completely collapsed a year ago and stepped down yet again recently.

Auckland(25% of Kiwis live there) average price: $747,450NZD equals $515,740USD

NZ average price: $535,250NZD equals $369,322USD

http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/price-index/for-sale/

Madness.

ayuh...

just another day in another polynesia'n paradise ?

and the inflation in ice cream is now starting to crimp my style ...
(i've stopped buying haagen daz and gone with tillamook - their 'oregon blueberry patch' is broke da mouth = da kine, brah ;)

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

We've just seen mortgage rates here in NZ dip below 5% for the first time.

4.99% fixed rate for two years have just popped up.

And stories about 10 year fixed mortgage rates are starting(historically NZ mortgages have been floating and fixed to under 5 years, most fixed at 2/3 years) with tag lines of long-term/record/historically low rates.

Anecdotally, and in US dollar terms, the average NZ home has increased approximately 500-600% in the last 15 years.

15 years ago NZ was insanely cheap and great value.

15 years later NZ is like a Switzerland of the South Pacific, with the same great awesome mountain views and insanely high property values but without the same construction quality.

A giant chunk of housing stock down here(legacy stock well into the 90's) have single glazed windows and are poorly insulated.

Meanwhile, dairy prices(a big chunk of NZ global trade by value and the sole reason why NZ Dollar is one of the most globally traded) completely collapsed a year ago and stepped down yet again recently.

Auckland(25% of Kiwis live there) average price: $747,450NZD equals $515,740USD

NZ average price: $535,250NZD equals $369,322USD

http://www.trademe.co.nz/property/price-index/for-sale/

Madness.

[GRG55]

Re: The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

Postscript: Mrs. GRG55 decided to take the bank up on its generous offer. Her unsecured credit limit is 50% greater than what the same bank offered her husband. Apparently it pays to have an honest looking face.

Post-postscript: Today in the mail TNL@TB (carrying the weighty title "Vice President, Personal Lending") sent a completely unsolicited letter informing me the above noted gross injustice has been rectified. With absolutely no action whatsoever on our part my unsecured credit limit has been raised to equal Mrs GRG55's.

Along with this notification TNL@TB enclosed three "no-fee" cheques, presumably to prevent any time wasting delays in the deployment of said increased credit availability. After all the Canadian economy is teetering on the edge of recession, so we all must do our part, eh.

I had to chuckle reading the closing sentences of the note, just below the V.P., Personal Lending's electronic signature: "P.S. Why put off doing and getting the things you really want? Simply use the enclosed no-fee cheques today."

[jpatter666]

Re: The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

The Bay Area is ground zero for the US housing lunacy, but as you can see, DC is trying *really* hard to catch up....

So you missed your chance at snagging this Dupont garage when it hit the market for $900,000 in late April? No worries: The place just dropped its price. By $1,000. That’s .1 percent!
To recap, this 1,008-square-foot brick garage, built in 1921 and located in an alley behind the O Street Mansion, is completely unfinished and has “no real street address,” according to the listing. But you can bring an architect to “see the potential!” and turn it into a “project of your own!” The listing also now helpfully includes a rendering of what it could look like reimagined as a home. Pay no mind to the 2014 tax assessment of $68,780.

http://www.washingtonian.com/blogs/o...now-899000.php

[GRG55]

Re: Palms can take it.

I grew up near San Francisco and there were many large palms in my neighborhood. These are not the slender 30m high ones that grow in Tahiti, but a "cold weather version" which have trunks about 1m diameter and grow to about 6m high. They can withstand a mild frost.

Vancouver is much further north than San Francisco, but it's the prevalence of freezing weather that matters.

Vancouver: January average minimum temperature: +1C

The supposedly get week long spells at -C, but the little palms are near the ocean, so I think they never get a deep frost. The ocean currents are a warming factor there.

February has the coldest ocean at +6.7C. That's a lot of safety margin for a palm.

Average temps may not mean much to the plants. I grew up there in the '60s and '70s, and there were often winters with accumulations of several feet of snow, and it was not unusual for the lake near the house to freeze thick enough to skate and play hockey on. Not any more apparently. In Feb of 1968 the temps fell low enough and long enough to kill the 10 ft high laurel evergreen hedge around my parents home (and a lot of other things too). I doubt palms would have survived in Vancouver back them. But perhaps no problem now? Global warming I suppose.

But even during 2014 the temps went below zero for days at a time. A chart of daily temperatures in Vancouver during last year:

The daily low (blue) and high (red) temperature during 2014 with the area between them shaded gray and superimposed over the corresponding averages (thick lines), and with percentile bands (inner band from 25th to 75th percentile, outer band from 10th to 90th percentile). The bar at the top of the graph is red where both the daily high and low are above average, blue where they are both below average, and white otherwise.

[Polish_Silver]

Palms can take it.

The debate goes on. Huffington Post reports that indeed palms are real along the coast in BC. They were planted 20 years ago. I'm sure that kapu phenomenon on iTulip has nothing to do with this. A-LO-HA! Vancouver.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02...n_6764966.html

I grew up near San Francisco and there were many large palms in my neighborhood. These are not the slender 30m high ones that grow in Tahiti, but a "cold weather version" which have trunks about 1m diameter and grow to about 6m high. They can withstand a mild frost.

Vancouver is much further north than San Francisco, but it's the prevalence of freezing weather that matters.

Vancouver: January average minimum temperature: +1C

The supposedly get week long spells at -C, but the little palms are near the ocean, so I think they never get a deep frost. The ocean currents are a warming factor there.

February has the coldest ocean at +6.7C. That's a lot of safety margin for a palm.

[santafe2]

Re: choices

they sure look real, dont appear to be photoshopped-in...

so... apparently not ?

The debate goes on. Huffington Post reports that indeed palms are real along the coast in BC. They were planted 20 years ago. I'm sure that kapu phenomenon on iTulip has nothing to do with this. A-LO-HA! Vancouver.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02...n_6764966.html

[lektrode]

Re: choices

The cherry blossoms are accurate, but I think the palm trees are fake. The winters in Vancouver can still be too cold (well below freezing temperatures) for tropical vegetation to survive. Bamboo transplanted from northern Asia does really well in Vancouver gardens, but I cannot ever recall seeing palm trees.

they sure look real, dont appear to be photoshopped-in...

so... apparently not ?

but looks like its gone to green up above, eh?
altho looks like theres still something left for the winter diehards up high..
tho its been all done for a few weeks now, ie 'construction' season over this way, and todays the last day over on the divide

and pretty much over back east (even if they did last longer this year than we did)
with still a wee bit left in the bowl (tucks)

[GRG55]

Re: choices

The cherry blossoms are accurate, but I think the palm trees are fake. The winters in Vancouver can still be too cold (well below freezing temperatures) for tropical vegetation to survive. Bamboo transplanted from northern Asia does really well in Vancouver gardens, but I cannot ever recall seeing palm trees.

[lektrode]

Re: choices

no need to worry about that anymore, what with global warming....


The Vancouver area (as well as parts of southern B.C. and Alberta) is enjoying an extended stretch of spring-like weather this February.

altho eye do recall GRG's comment about the weather at whistler this past winter - right about the same time my winter haunt was 'enjoying ( /sarc ) the best spring conditions EVER' (in jan-feb) - never did see any of them palmettos the couple times i was up that way - now i unnerstands why my galpal from montreal refers to the area as 'the canadian riviera' (up til then/prev thinking it was actually hollywood beach Fla - where - i'm assuming - they transplanted the palmettos from - unless they grow them in hothouses too, GRG ? ;)

[jk]

Re: choices

It's going to take a very creative architect to make these proposed units not feel claustrophobic on a solid overcast and dark day in the middle of a Vancouver winter.

no need to worry about that anymore, what with global warming....

Vancouver Weather Is Glorious For February (PHOTOS)

The Huffington Post B.C. | By Andree Lau


Posted: 02/24/2015 2:10 pm EST Updated: 02/24/2015 4:59 pm EST

The Vancouver area (as well as parts of southern B.C. and Alberta) is enjoying an extended stretch of spring-like weather this February. But we are not here to gloat.

[below, one of the OTHER 38 images of vancouver this past feb]

[GRG55]

Re: choices

Some rooms in my college dorm were smaller than 145 sq feet. One of the students could stretch his finger tips from one wall to the other, and he was short.

I think it's a question of whether you want a very small private space, or a larger room shared with others.

I survived living in 8 person dorms in boarding school, and tried living in one of the dorm residences (communal bathrooms, cafeteria food service) at UBC, which lasted one month, and only that long because I couldn't get a part month refund. A lot of students thrive in that sort of environment, others don't.

What struck me about the item I posted is the fact these are attempting to be fairly complete apartments including cooking facilities (and presumably room for a bed AND a study desk) at a not-so-cheap rent. Gage Towers by comparison has small bedrooms, but the rest of the space has a lot of natural light from ample windows. It's going to take a very creative architect to make these proposed units not feel claustrophobic on a solid overcast and dark day in the middle of a Vancouver winter.

[lektrode]

Re: choices

Some rooms in my college dorm were smaller than 145 sq feet. One of the students could stretch his finger tips from one wall to the other, and he was short.

I think it's a question of whether you want a very small private space, or a larger room shared with others.

a question?
nothing quite like a dorm/bunkhouse with 8 others s.n.o.r.i.n.g the night away.

a 72sqft van would be preferable...
(esp since one could move to another parking lot on an 'open window' night if it got too loud)

[Polish_Silver]

choices

...and smaller, and smaller.

I wasn't sure if I should post this here or on the "You Can't Make This Stuff Up" thread.
My alma mater, the University of British Columbia, is tackling the pumped up price of housing in Vancouver in the most obvious way. You will be forgiven it you think Canada is a country with limited land mass.

UBC proposes 145-sq-ft micro apartments as affordable student housing

Some rooms in my college dorm were smaller than 145 sq feet. One of the students could stretch his finger tips from one wall to the other, and he was short.

I think it's a question of whether you want a very small private space, or a larger room shared with others.