Big Trouble in Little China

[Mega]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

[shiny!]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

https://twitter.com/man_integrated/s...85704424402946

"11 Aug 2020
The Sichuan Basin continues to get drenched, with more than 2 ft of rain forecast for Chengdu in the next ten days. It's a vital food growing region, and crops are getting wiped out. The Sichuan Basin drains into the Yangtze upstream of the Three Gorges Dam."

and...

"At this point, the biggest risk is that it simply won't stop raining in the upper reaches. They will have no choice but to keep the sluiceways open and increase further flooding downstream."

[Mega]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

I don't see the dam failing, but it was ment to stop flood water......which its has failed to do son...
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...sed-China.html

[Chris Coles]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

simply; every nation, (other than the UK with Blue Streak), has had failed launches.

[touchring]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

This is from yesterday, the water level is still rising. Upstream, 600km from three gorges. This was yesterday, the water levels has risen and is still rising. If something gives way, it could have global consequences.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

This is from yesterday, the water level is still rising. Upstream, 600km from three gorges. This was yesterday, the water levels has risen and is still rising. If something gives way, it could have global consequences.

The underlying problem is very simple; global warming has, (certainly here in the UK), massively accelerated the rate of temperature rise. For example, here the BBC weather forecasters have been putting up details of the maximum temperature every summer up to last year. It never got higher than 30C over the last decade. Last summer we had a high of 38.7; this year we have just had 6 days continuous above 34C, reaching 36C. Now today and tomorrow we are in the process of experiencing what they keep telling us would normally be autumn weather, a low pressure right up alongside Ireland, giving strong winds and much rain. So when we look at China, what we see is that suddenly, they are experiencing very heavy rain upstream of the three gorges dam and they have already let so much rain out of the reservoir; the downstream cities are already in trouble.

Having given this debate some thought I have come to the conclusion that with the dam spillway, the top level of water being 175 metres, well above present levels; two things are important. 1. We should be confident that the designers have built a dam that will remain secure with the reservoir at that level with the full flow then passing over that spillway. 2. That no one gave full thought to the effects both up and down stream of such an event; particularly if the rainfall was beyond their original calculations.

It would seem that China is in the process of experiencing what we are here; a massive increase in rainfall and associated weather events; well beyond expectations of the original designers of the dam. Moreover, this may well be just the start, we may be about to witness what one might describe as the plant's weather totally out of control; beyond any previous expectation. I am very glad I live at the top of the highest hills in my region.

[shiny!]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

The underlying problem is very simple; global warming has, (certainly here in the UK), massively accelerated the rate of temperature rise. For example, here the BBC weather forecasters have been putting up details of the maximum temperature every summer up to last year. It never got higher than 30C over the last decade. Last summer we had a high of 38.7; this year we have just had 6 days continuous above 34C, reaching 36C. Now today and tomorrow we are in the process of experiencing what they keep telling us would normally be autumn weather, a low pressure right up alongside Ireland, giving strong winds and much rain. So when we look at China, what we see is that suddenly, they are experiencing very heavy rain upstream of the three gorges dam and they have already let so much rain out of the reservoir; the downstream cities are already in trouble.

Having given this debate some thought I have come to the conclusion that with the dam spillway, the top level of water being 175 metres, well above present levels; two things are important. 1. We should be confident that the designers have built a dam that will remain secure with the reservoir at that level with the full flow then passing over that spillway. 2. That no one gave full thought to the effects both up and down stream of such an event; particularly if the rainfall was beyond their original calculations.

It would seem that China is in the process of experiencing what we are here; a massive increase in rainfall and associated weather events; well beyond expectations of the original designers of the dam. Moreover, this may well be just the start, we may be about to witness what one might describe as the plant's weather totally out of control; beyond any previous expectation. I am very glad I live at the top of the highest hills in my region.

There's a La Nina system in place this year making some parts of the world excessively wet, other parts excessively dry. In Arizona and Southern California we've had a high pressure system sitting on top of us all summer, not letting the seasonal rain currents enter to cool things off. In New Mexico to the east of us, they've gotten their annual monsoon rain. Next year could see the reverse. It's what I like to call WEATHER.

People look at the lack of rainfall in Southern California and say it's Global Warming. If they would look at historical records going back farther than human settlement, they'd realize that hot and dry is the norm, but when modern settlers settled within the last 150 years, they arrived during an atypical mild period with more than average rain. Now that the climate is reverting to form, they cry Global Warming. Nature is doing it's thing and we're taking it personally.

[touchring]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

2. That no one gave full thought to the effects both up and down stream of such an event; particularly if the rainfall was beyond their original calculations.

It would seem that China is in the process of experiencing what we are here; a massive increase in rainfall and associated weather events; well beyond expectations of the original designers of the dam. Moreover, this may well be just the start, we may be about to witness what one might describe as the plant's weather totally out of control; beyond any previous expectation. I am very glad I live at the top of the highest hills in my region.

If a smaller dam downstream gives way and causes a sudden fall in water levels downstream, and if upstream water levels are still at the peak, can the dam still hold up despite the huge pressure differences? If not, this means all the nearby dams are equally important and must hold up.

[touchring]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

Meanwhile in downstream Wuhan, last weekend, a different kind of water party.

[Mega]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

[Mega]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

[Techdread]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

Looks like they made a good call in opening the floodgates in late June.

So they are not just using their supercomputers for military and surveillance purposes.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

If like me you regularly walk the roads for several miles, you will have noticed how larger rainfall raindrops fall from trees overlooking a road, and how the road surface is eroded by those larger rain drops. Now look again at the water flows from the dam; they are not like a tube of water but immensely turbulent. It is that turbulence that will, eventually completely erode the interior of those outlets. It seems reasonable to assume that the outlets were not designed for continuous use. Then again, the water height is declared as 72 meters; when the full height spillway is 175 meters. While there may be erosion problems to be addressed in the future; it remains my opinion that the designers were competent and that the dam will remain in service without failure.

What we are observing is the attempt to balance flooding both up and downstream during extreme weather events. A unenviable responsibility.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Big Trouble in Little China

There's a La Nina system in place this year making some parts of the world excessively wet, other parts excessively dry. In Arizona and Southern California we've had a high pressure system sitting on top of us all summer, not letting the seasonal rain currents enter to cool things off. In New Mexico to the east of us, they've gotten their annual monsoon rain. Next year could see the reverse. It's what I like to call WEATHER.

People look at the lack of rainfall in Southern California and say it's Global Warming. If they would look at historical records going back farther than human settlement, they'd realize that hot and dry is the norm, but when modern settlers settled within the last 150 years, they arrived during an atypical mild period with more than average rain. Now that the climate is reverting to form, they cry Global Warming. Nature is doing it's thing and we're taking it personally.

Shiny, thanks for your comment. However, recently we had a TV report titled Global Dimming. What that showed was the long term effects of the overall loss of sunlight reaching the surface from high altitude air pollution. But of greater interest was the revelation caused by the three days after 9/11, where no aircraft flew over the entire US nation; and the surface temperature rose by nearly 3C. Indeed it was that that prompted the TV program being made.

Now realise, again, something not being discussed; instead of no aircraft flying for three days we have had almost all aircraft grounded over the entire planet for several months and still not back to full deployment. That will, inevitably, raise the surface temperature; particularly over the oceans, resulting in much more water vapour being carried in the atmosphere. Again, that extra energy will remain held in the oceans.

Here in the UK we experience a maritime climate; our weather is always deeply influenced by the airflow from off the Atlantic ocean. Here we have seen a marked change in our overall weather patterns during the last two decades; particularly increased rainfall and the length of the periods of such increased rainfall. When you have lived through repeated events of more than 100 days continuous rain, day after day; when such was NEVER experienced before in a long lifetime, you start to realise that we are not under the influence of a short term change, but a long term deterioration.

Again, as I regularly attend major conferences in the likes of London and Paris I keep meeting others from the European continent that have also come to realise something is very different about our weather here in the Northern latitudes. The further North, the greater the effects.