Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

[flintlock]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Just heard a report on tv(GMA) that significant portions of the fuselage have been cut away with saws and are missing. If true, kind of points toward rebels doesnt it?

black boxes wont tell us much if anything. I'm with others who say it's likely just a mistake by trigger happy rebels. Of course WE have only the info they give us.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

No commercial airlines flying over Iraq seemed like a good idea too.

http://articles.latimes.com/2003/apr.../war-patriot21

The Defense Department has acknowledged that the antimissile system was involved in the downing of two allied warplanes, resulting in the deaths of three airmen. The two aircraft -- one American and one British -- are the only confirmed cases of planes being shot down during the war. Another plane narrowly escaped becoming the third victim of the Patriot system.


So again The US goads Europe into its hawkish ways and its in Europe's back yard.

I'm pretty sure all Saddam era Soviet/Russian and French air defense systems have been taken out of service and demilitarized in Iraq.

But I think they have requested US man portable and high altitude/performance air defense systems...but nothing delivered as far as I know.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Not sure what if anything the black boxes will tell. Things may have happened too quickly for any info.

They may tell us any request to change course came from Ukraine air controllers. This would be important.

What is very discouraging is the contamination of the crash site. If missile parts were in the wreckage, parts that could point out the culprit, they are likely long gone.
This is the most telling and damaging missing information. What are they hiding??? And why are they hiding it??? Doesn't this hint of a cover up?

I would posit that the flight data recorders will offer little to nothing of value to investigators as it's not an airframe/engine/component failure that worries us so much with typical non-kinetic commercial airline crashes.

SA11(or other) missile components/fragments would provide not only clear identification of the weapon system used to destroy MH17, but quite possibly the owner(as missile serial #'s would be easy-ish to trace).

Also, aircraft fuselage and wing components themselves would be very helpful in determining(with high probability if not 100% certainty) the weapon system used to destroy MH17 but also HOW MH17 was engaged.

For example, a highly unlikely scenario of a Ukrainian SU25 close air support aircraft firing a stern shot heat seeking missile would leave substantially different indicators(hit from behind, likely direct hit or very close proximity hit to one of the two engines due to much smaller warhead and fuzing) that if hit by an SA11 nose shot(hit from the front with large proximity fused warhead detonating in the immediate path of MH17).

The debris field jigsaw puzzle, without SA11 missile body serial numbers, might never give 100% certainty......but examining MH17 fuselage, wing, and engine components with missile shrapnel damage will tell enough of the story I would think.

If the Russians REALLY believed a Ukrainian SU25 pilot shot down MH17, it would be insane for them to NOT cordon the crime scene and play an active role in the investigation, as well as hand over the SU25 cockpit voice intercepts for the SU25 to be vectored to the target(ask GRG55 himself, and maybe he could ask his brother if an SU25 mudmover could intercept a 777 at altitude and speed without ground control intercept support).

If the Russians really wanted the crime scene investigated thoroughly and properly under the glare of international media, they would have instantly facilitated it.

They don't.

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

I'm quite skeptical the FDR and CVR will provide any useful information.
The FDR will show something like:

14:15:25 - Everything normal
14:15:26 - Loss of power to the FDR - end of recording

Some information may come from the last half second of the CVR recording (sound of impact), or maybe not

For some reason, no one wants to know what the flight recorder will reveal. Maybe they fear the truth.

But whatever the truth, whoever is responsible, it will be out soon.

[sgominator]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

But one thing for sure, we'll know soon as the blackbox is now handed over to Malaysia.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...674#post283674

[sgominator]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

I think there's no need to speculate further as the blackbox has been handed over to the Malaysian government, and the evidence will be out soon.

I'm quite skeptical the FDR and CVR will provide any useful information.
The FDR will show something like:

14:15:25 - Everything normal
14:15:26 - Loss of power to the FDR - end of recording

Some information may come from the last half second of the CVR recording (sound of impact), or maybe not

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Maybe to "discourage" russian air force to provide air cover to the rebels?


based on ...


To avoid the no-fly zone over Crimea?

Any is possible and none of us know better since we're all speculating without actual proof.

But one thing for sure, we'll know soon as the blackbox is now handed over to Malaysia.

[sgominator]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

1. Kiev deployed surface to air missile system near to the city of Dotnsek. What are these missiles for when there's rebels had no aircraft?

Maybe to "discourage" russian air force to provide air cover to the rebels?

these recordings appeared to have been pre-recorded

based on ...

3. Why did MH17 deviated from the usual flight path that was south of East Ukraine?

To avoid the no-fly zone over Crimea?

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Did the CIA managed to inform Kerry before he rattles off?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-21/key-piece-video-%E2%80%9Cevidence%E2%80%9D-russian-responsibility-malaysian-plane-shootdown-debunked

Key Piece of Video “Evidence” for Russian Responsibility for Malaysian Plane Shootdown Debunked





Hello Mish,

On Friday, the Daily Mail, one of the major UK tabloids carried photos and video of what was alleged to be a rebel “Buk” launcher heading back to Russia. The article carried a claim from some Ukrainian source that the launcher was missing several missiles after having shot them at the Malaysian 777. The article was prominently linked to the Drudge Report, and so was probably viewed by several million people.

Today, this meme made it into Uncle Sam’s official narrative, as per the following New York Times excerpt:

On the CBS program “Face the Nation,” Mr. Kerry referred to a video that the Ukrainians have made public showing an SA-11 unit heading back to Russia after the downing of the plane with “a missing missile or so.”

The video referenced by the New York Times was, in fact, posted on the Facebook account of the Ukrainian Interior Minister. The allegation was that the launcher was crossing the border with Russia.

However, going by the billboard and other features of the scenery, Russian bloggers and news sources claim to have identified the road in the video as having been taken in or near the town of Krasnoarmeisk (“Krasnoarmiysk” in Ukrainian), which has been under Kiev’s control since May.

In fact, the billboard is supposedly advertising a Krasnoarmeisk car dealership. Also, one of the structures in the background is said to be a construction materials store on Gorkii Street, Krasnoarmeisk.

Please note that this town is (very roughly) 120 kilometers from the Russian border and 80 kilometers from where the Malaysian 777 went down. And again, it has been under Kiev’s control since May.

At least one other clip of the “Russian Buk” that has been made available also suggests that the Ukrainians are showing their own equipment. I’m still working on researching that one for you.

Jacob

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

No commercial airlines flying over Iraq seemed like a good idea too.

http://articles.latimes.com/2003/apr.../war-patriot21

The Defense Department has acknowledged that the antimissile system was involved in the downing of two allied warplanes, resulting in the deaths of three airmen. The two aircraft -- one American and one British -- are the only confirmed cases of planes being shot down during the war. Another plane narrowly escaped becoming the third victim of the Patriot system.


So again The US goads Europe into its hawkish ways and its in Europe's back yard.

I think one of the primary reason why the accident happened is the lack of understanding of what's happening in Ukraine. I'd not be surprised if the pilots and management of MAS didn't know that a full fledged civil war is going on is Donetsk. There's virtually no reports on MSM on the civil war, aside from a couple of reports on "anti-terrorist operations".

There's a media blackout on military operations in Ukraine.

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

No commercial airlines flying over Iraq seemed like a good idea too.

http://articles.latimes.com/2003/apr.../war-patriot21

The Defense Department has acknowledged that the antimissile system was involved in the downing of two allied warplanes, resulting in the deaths of three airmen. The two aircraft -- one American and one British -- are the only confirmed cases of planes being shot down during the war. Another plane narrowly escaped becoming the third victim of the Patriot system.


So again The US goads Europe into its hawkish ways and its in Europe's back yard.

I think one of the primary reason why the accident happened is the lack of understanding of what's happening in Ukraine. I'd not be surprised if the pilots and management of MAS didn't know that a full fledged civil war is going on is Donetsk. There's virtually no reports on MSM on the civil war, aside from a couple of reports on "anti-terrorist operations".

There's a media blackout on military operations in Ukraine.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

If you read up on recent Russian unconventional warfare doctrine I think the far more plausible explanation would be assistance, training, and leadership provided by ex Russian military Russians, in the form of arms length private military contractors(Russian Blackwater) funded by the Russian security services.

What's also worth noting is that the SA11 missile system, of Russian manufacture, would be relatively easy for the Russian security services to monitor/track/negate(jam) as it would possess the specific radar frequency and telemetry specifications as well as system vulnerabilities.

Aeroflot would have been flying over Ukrainian airspace above contested ground until recent days. Surely Russian security forces would have taken a very keen interest in the exact whereabouts, RF emissions, and operational activity of rebel groups and arms length private military contractors armed with a Russian made SA11 system easily capable of shooting down commercial traffic.

To me it seems like the Russians really screwed up.

How much support did the Russians provide the rebels in operating the SA11 system?

What operational control measures did the Russians have in place(or not) over the SA11 system?

Is it likely or even possible according to Russian political and unconventional warfare doctrine(both very closely integrated) that the Russians would allow the rebels ANY latitude in engaging aircraft without Russian approval? It would NOT be typical of the Russians to allow rebels that much command latitude with such a geopolitically sensitive weapon system.

Personally, I think the idea of some western false flag operation is comical......anyone who actually knows how to plan a complex military operation, let alone one in a non-permissive space with a significant physical and RF emissions signature under the close eye of one of the world's greatest technical surveillance capable nations(Russia), understands the incredibly high risks and near guarantee of failure.

One only needs to look at ethnic Ukrainian special forces who were pinched by Russian/rebel forces and paraded in front of the media while conducting a far simpler recce in Eastern Ukraine a few months back. And those were ethnic Ukrainians.....far less likely to stick out in the crowd than a bunch of westerners commandeering a SAM battery in non-permissive space on Russia's doorstep.

I reckon no matter how this actually went down, Russia is culpable.

Russians were either culpable in the firing command authority chain or they were culpable in failing to keep they proxies on a shorter leash.

What other reasonable explanation is there?

-----

I've read elsewhere(from a senior US Anti-Air Warfare Officer) recently that the USS Vincennes shooting down the Iran Air Airbus in the late 80's resulted in a dramatic reduction in hostilities between Iran and Iraq(during their extremely costly and little known war), attacks on 3rd parties(oil and gas carriers), and aggressive posturing(aggressive maneuvering of military assets) declined dramatically.

It certainly doesn't justify the massive loss of life on Iran Air 655......but the coincidental/accidental outcome in reduced conflict then will be watching now to see if there is a repeat.

Hopefully we see another massive negative with some positive outcome.

No commercial airlines flying over Iraq seemed like a good idea too.

http://articles.latimes.com/2003/apr.../war-patriot21

The Defense Department has acknowledged that the antimissile system was involved in the downing of two allied warplanes, resulting in the deaths of three airmen. The two aircraft -- one American and one British -- are the only confirmed cases of planes being shot down during the war. Another plane narrowly escaped becoming the third victim of the Patriot system.


So again The US goads Europe into its hawkish ways and its in Europe's back yard.

[vt]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Not sure what if anything the black boxes will tell. Things may have happened too quickly for any info.

They may tell us any request to change course came from Ukraine air controllers. This would be important.

What is very discouraging is the contamination of the crash site. If missile parts were in the wreckage, parts that could point out the culprit, they are likely long gone.
This is the most telling and damaging missing information. What are they hiding??? And why are they hiding it??? Doesn't this hint of a cover up?

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

The Russians seem to be calling for US intelligence sources to release information(claiming a US intelligence satellite was overhead at the time), but strangely seem to be unable to produce compelling evidence from their own intelligence services, such as:

Russian SIGINT voice intercepts between Ukrainian SU25 and Ukrainian ground control that would be absolutely necessary for the SU25 to intercept or mimic/bait MH17.

Russian SIGINT intercepts of Ukrainian SA11 missile battery search radar, track radar, and intercept missile telemetry.

All well within the capability of Russian intelligence right along it's own border.

I would think the debris fields would be relentlessly combed to remove any missile body fragments that would provide investigators appropriate indicators such as serial numbers to ascertain the ownership of the missile in question.

I think there's no need to speculate further as the blackbox has been handed over to the Malaysian government, and the evidence will be out soon.

The biggest problem I can see out is that the role of the USA as the leader of the West and the reputation of the CIA and US intelligence is now at stake.

If the blackbox is found and it turns out that the separatists and Russian backers are not at fault or are not the main party responsible for the shoot down, the fallout will be very serious, even much more serious than for the Russians had the separatists being found solely responsible.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...otiations.html

Pro-Russian rebels hand over two MH17 black boxes to Malaysian investigators in Ukraine after days of negotiations

• Malaysian PM Najib Razak said boxes were handed over in Donetsk
  
• Black boxes likely to be passed onto experts for analysis
  
• Senior members of Russian military claimed a Ukrainian jet with air-to-air missiles was tailing MH17
• Claim satellite evidence shows erratic movements and challenged Ukraine to 'explain' the presence of fighter plane
• Around 200 corpses were left in the heat for three days before being piled up and driven to refrigerated carriages

By RICHARD SHEARS
PUBLISHED: 23:25 GMT, 21 July 2014 | UPDATED: 00:57 GMT, 22 July 2014
34shares

20View comments

The MH17 black boxes have been handed over to the Malaysian investigation team in Ukraine, it was revealed last night.
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said that the boxes were handed over to the Malaysian team in Donetsk at 9pm Ukraine time.
The small handing over ceremony has finally solved the question as to what had happened to the two vital devices.
It was not immediately known what the Malaysian team would do with the black boxes, but there was speculation they would pass the boxes on to experts with experience of reading the data.


SCROLL DOWN FOR VIDEO



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It was not immediately known what the Malaysian team would do with the black boxes, but there was speculation they would pass the boxes on to experts with experience of reading the data




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A Malaysian investigator, left, takes a black box as it is handed over by a Donetsk People's Republic official in the city of Donetsk






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Malaysian PM Najib Razak revealed that in recent days the team had been working quietly behind the scenes to establish contact with 'those' - a reference to the rebels - in charge of the MH17 crash site






Mr Najib revealed that in recent days the team had been working quietly behind the scenes to establish contact with 'those' - a reference to the rebels - in charge of the MH17 crash site.
The contact was finally made - but he made it clear it had not been easy.
'Under difficult and fluid circumstances, we have been discussing the problems that have occupied us all - securing vital evidence from the aircraft, launching an independent investigation and above all recovering the remains of those who lost their lives.'
There had been a breakthrough, he said.
'We have established the basis of an agreement to do just that,' he said in a reference to overdoing the problems.
'Firstly, the remains of 282 people, currently in Torez, will be moved by train to Kharkiv, where they will be handed over to representatives from the Netherlands.
'The train will depart this evening Ukraine time and will be accompanied by six Malaysian members of the recovery team.
'The remains will then be flown to Amersterdam on board a Dutch C130 Herculates, together with the Malaysian team.'
Mr Najib said, in reference to his own citizens, that following any necessary forensic work, the remains of Malaysian citizens will then be flown home to Malaysia.
It is expected the same process will follow for the citizens of other countries.



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A pro-Russian fighter places a black box on a table while handing it over





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Mr Razak and his wife visit families of victims of Malaysia Airlines MH17 crash at Marriot Hotel Putrajaya







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Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, sits in an aircraft cockpit of the Progress State Research and Production Space Centre (also known as TsSKB-Progress) in Samara, Russia






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Forensic experts at the crash site of the Malaysia Airlines Boeying 777 flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, near the village of Grabovo



The Prime Minister said that in another breakthrough an independent international investigation team would be guaranteed safe access to the crash site to begin a full investigation.
'I must stress that although agreement has been reached, there remain a number of steps required before it is completed,' said Mr Najib.
'There is work still to be done, work which relies on continued communication in good faith. Mr Borodai and his people have so far given their co-operation.
'I ask that all parties continue to work together to ensure that this agreement is honoured; that the remains of our people are returned, that the black box is handed over, and that the international team is granted full access to the site.
'Only then can the investigation into MH17 truly begin; only then can the victims be afforded the respect they deserve. We need to know what caused the plane to crash, and who was responsible for it, so that justice may be done.
'In recent days, there were times I wanted to give greater voice to the anger and grief that the Malaysian people feel. And that I feel. But sometimes, we must work quietly in the service of a better outcome.
'I understand that for the families, nothing can undo this damage. The lives taken cannot be given back; the dignity lost cannot be regained.
'My heart reaches out to those whose loved ones were lost on MH17. We hope and pray that the agreement reached tonight helps bring them a clear step towards closure.'




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Ukrainian workers load the remains of victims onto a truck at the main crash site of the Boeing 777 Malaysia Airlines flight MH17






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Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees search for bodies among the wreckage at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, near the village of Grabove


Russia challenges accusations that rebels shot down airliner

<center></center>





It comes after a series of increasingly outlandish and sensational claims were made by the Russian military to explain why flight MH17 crashed in Ukraine, contradicting the general Western consensus that it was shot out of the sky by pro-Moscow separatists.
The claims include the implication that a Ukrainian military jet could have tailed the plane and shot it out of the sky, to outright denials that it has supplied the separatists with surface-to-air missiles, despite U.S. claims yesterday that armaments were seen being driven across the border just days before.

The new theory was delivered by a Russian general, Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the General Staff's Main Operational Directorate at a press conference today, as outrage international outrage gathered at Russia and the separatists over the handling of the crisis, and in particular the bodies of the victims.
'An altitude gain was detected for a Ukrainian combat jet, supposedly a Su-25, flying at a distance of 3-5 kilometers from the Boeing,' said Lt. Gen. Andrei Kartapolov.

'The Su-25 ground attack aircraft is capable of destroying air targets at close range with air-to-air missiles.




'We would like Kiev to explain why a combat jet was flying almost at the same altitude and the same time with a passenger plane along the route dedicated for civilian air traffic,' said the general.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz38A0kIK6S
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[lakedaemonian]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Something a bit more in context with iTulip's core competencies:

Russian capital outflows in 1st half of 2014 exceed all of 2013(I wonder what happens post MH17?)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...q2/503225.html

Russian GDP growth effectively zero(does MH17 guarantee Russian recession?)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0PC22Q20140701

I would also be interested in hearing IF/HOW an incident like this could trigger financial/economic diplomatic policy that could cascade into the next chapter of the global financial crisis.

I know EJ seems to think the next GFC chapter will be Asian, but could events in Eastern Europe spark it?

One medium sized to large conflict could be a trigger for the next chapter of the GFC could it not?

But how many small to medium sized conflicts would it take to trigger it?

And are we potentially close?

Could an economic crisis in Russia or Turkey be enough of a catalyst to start the next GFC chapter?

-----

Living in a place that has had 2 very large, a good few medium sized, and thousands of small earthquakes in the last 4 years, I wonder if conflicts/earthquakes are analogous?

Maybe we need a financial/economic "conflict richter scale"?