Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Your information might certainly be correct, vt.

The whole question seems like a red herring, because all three belligerents could have operated the missile system - Kiev Ukraine army, Russian army, or rebels.

The ethnic Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine probably include military veterans, who served last year or last week.
It seems plausible that the Russian-speaking rebels acting alone could round up a full crew trained to operate that complete missile system, with a person at every position.

If you read up on recent Russian unconventional warfare doctrine I think the far more plausible explanation would be assistance, training, and leadership provided by ex Russian military Russians, in the form of arms length private military contractors(Russian Blackwater) funded by the Russian security services.

What's also worth noting is that the SA11 missile system, of Russian manufacture, would be relatively easy for the Russian security services to monitor/track/negate(jam) as it would possess the specific radar frequency and telemetry specifications as well as system vulnerabilities.

Aeroflot would have been flying over Ukrainian airspace above contested ground until recent days. Surely Russian security forces would have taken a very keen interest in the exact whereabouts, RF emissions, and operational activity of rebel groups and arms length private military contractors armed with a Russian made SA11 system easily capable of shooting down commercial traffic.

To me it seems like the Russians really screwed up.

How much support did the Russians provide the rebels in operating the SA11 system?

What operational control measures did the Russians have in place(or not) over the SA11 system?

Is it likely or even possible according to Russian political and unconventional warfare doctrine(both very closely integrated) that the Russians would allow the rebels ANY latitude in engaging aircraft without Russian approval? It would NOT be typical of the Russians to allow rebels that much command latitude with such a geopolitically sensitive weapon system.

Personally, I think the idea of some western false flag operation is comical......anyone who actually knows how to plan a complex military operation, let alone one in a non-permissive space with a significant physical and RF emissions signature under the close eye of one of the world's greatest technical surveillance capable nations(Russia), understands the incredibly high risks and near guarantee of failure.

One only needs to look at ethnic Ukrainian special forces who were pinched by Russian/rebel forces and paraded in front of the media while conducting a far simpler recce in Eastern Ukraine a few months back. And those were ethnic Ukrainians.....far less likely to stick out in the crowd than a bunch of westerners commandeering a SAM battery in non-permissive space on Russia's doorstep.

I reckon no matter how this actually went down, Russia is culpable.

Russians were either culpable in the firing command authority chain or they were culpable in failing to keep they proxies on a shorter leash.

What other reasonable explanation is there?

-----

I've read elsewhere(from a senior US Anti-Air Warfare Officer) recently that the USS Vincennes shooting down the Iran Air Airbus in the late 80's resulted in a dramatic reduction in hostilities between Iran and Iraq(during their extremely costly and little known war), attacks on 3rd parties(oil and gas carriers), and aggressive posturing(aggressive maneuvering of military assets) declined dramatically.

It certainly doesn't justify the massive loss of life on Iran Air 655......but the coincidental/accidental outcome in reduced conflict then will be watching now to see if there is a repeat.

Hopefully we see another massive negative with some positive outcome.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

There is evidence that Russians may have been operating the system for and with the rebels in the eastern part of Ukraine....

Your information might certainly be correct, vt.

The whole question seems like a red herring, because all three belligerents could have operated the missile system - Kiev Ukraine army, Russian army, or rebels.

The ethnic Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine probably include military veterans, who served last year or last week.
It seems plausible that the Russian-speaking rebels acting alone could round up a full crew trained to operate that complete missile system, with a person at every position.

[vt]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

There is evidence that Russians may have been operating the system for and with the rebels in the eastern part of Ukraine.

The fact that independent air disaster experts not being even allowed in for a few days after the shoot down, and evidence that items were removed from the debris field may have already eliminated missile evidence.
This speaks volumes for who may be responsible.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Given that Kiev ruled Ukraine is using military aircraft against East Ukraine , one could certainly see why they would deploy anti-air. That is what you do when people are trying to kill you.

Its also reasonable to assume Kiev will also have these batteries given Russia is also present with its aircraft.

Now given that, what are commercial aircraft doing over this area?


Like these things don't happen in a war zone?

http://news.yahoo.com/5-us-troops-ki...112047271.html

It's my understanding that there were commercial airliners from at least two other airlines(Singapore Airlines 777 and Air India 787) in reasonably close proximity.

Airliners fly over "self governed spaces" which possess genuine anti-aircraft threats every day, as well as "self governed spaces" that have captured more advanced/capable anti aircraft systems. Those more advanced systems typically demand a reasonable to high level of state support to operate them.

But in most cases the anti-aircraft threat is represented by MANPADS and medium calibre cannons capable of reaching 10-15 thousand feet in altitude and several miles in range.

So the threat bubbles are typically far below commercial altitude.

The SA11 BUK system is a very capable system against military aircraft capable of maneuvering against it as well as deploying active/passive countermeasures to defeat it.

Against commercial airliners, it would be like shooting fish in a barrel(with sufficient training).

The problem I see is not how the separatists gained control of the SA11 missile battery(the loss/gain of military equipment during conflict happens all the time), but how they were able to effectively operate it.

Someone could be taught the basics of the Stinger/Igla shoulder launched MANPAD/SAM in minutes to hours(in the Falklands one British soldier shot down an Argentine aircraft with effectively no real training in its use).

The SA11 is another story. I've heard training for the SA11 system is in the order of approx 6 months and requires quite a few personnel to operate it.

It's not just 1 guy with zero training in just 1 missile launch vehicle. I'm thinking a good half dozen sensor operators and folks in the launch decision chain of command across a number of vehicles directly culpable and dozens needed in support to keep a complex system such as SA11 functional.

The likelihood of a separatist group possessing the necessary infrastructure and resources to train, maintain, and deploy an SA11 battery without any external help(Russia) would have to be less than zero, unless a significant number of Ukrainian military personnel with SA11 experience defected to the separatists.

The Russians seem to be calling for US intelligence sources to release information(claiming a US intelligence satellite was overhead at the time), but strangely seem to be unable to produce compelling evidence from their own intelligence services, such as:

Russian SIGINT voice intercepts between Ukrainian SU25 and Ukrainian ground control that would be absolutely necessary for the SU25 to intercept or mimic/bait MH17.

Russian SIGINT intercepts of Ukrainian SA11 missile battery search radar, track radar, and intercept missile telemetry.

All well within the capability of Russian intelligence right along it's own border.

I would think the debris fields would be relentlessly combed to remove any missile body fragments that would provide investigators appropriate indicators such as serial numbers to ascertain the ownership of the missile in question.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

actually, other than their denial of having delivered a BUK weapon system (or even weapons of any kind), I think the Russians are relatively truthful in this rebuttal. If anything, this list of questions shows that even the Russian seem to think that the rebels downed this airliner, and are now grasping for straws...

And it's not very clear to me if Russia is officially saying that a Su fighter successfully baited a missile launch or not, or just implying it... the list of questions seems to be poorly translated to English, so I can't really tell...

The SU25 Frogfoot is the Russian equivalent of the A10 Warthog.

The SU25 is a single role flying tank. Very poorly suited to the jobs of:

1)Intercepting a commercial airliner at high altitude/speed in an SU25 would be exceptionally difficult to pull off as it does not possess the performance, nor the onboard sensors and weapon systems to successfully engage without ground control support(which would be easy to pick up voice intercepts)

2)Or "Bait". The SU25 may not even possess the necessary performance to "bait" "rebel" SAMs into intercepting a civilian airliner as the SU25 does not appear capable of reaching commercial airliner speed/altitude and without significant modification would not display even a similar radar return for active sensors or emissions return on passive sensors to the SAM battery operators.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Given that Kiev ruled Ukraine is using military aircraft against East Ukraine , one could certainly see why they would deploy anti-air. That is what you do when people are trying to kill you.

Its also reasonable to assume Kiev will also have these batteries given Russia is also present with its aircraft.

Now given that, what are commercial aircraft doing over this area?


Like these things don't happen in a war zone?

http://news.yahoo.com/5-us-troops-ki...112047271.html

[FrankL]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Right.

One is going to trust Russia on this to tell the entire truth.

Just as we were expected to trust our government that we were winning in Vietnam.

Or the Iraq spokesman in 2003 Iraq invasion.

actually, other than their denial of having delivered a BUK weapon system (or even weapons of any kind), I think the Russians are relatively truthful in this rebuttal. If anything, this list of questions shows that even the Russian seem to think that the rebels downed this airliner, and are now grasping for straws...

And it's not very clear to me if Russia is officially saying that a Su fighter successfully baited a missile launch or not, or just implying it... the list of questions seems to be poorly translated to English, so I can't really tell...

[vt]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Right.

One is going to trust Russia on this to tell the entire truth.

Just as we were expected to trust our government that we were winning in Vietnam.

Or the Iraq spokesman in 2003 Iraq invasion.

[don]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Oops?

Ukraine hasn’t said how it immediately knew rebels downed Malaysian plane, notes the Russian Foreign Ministry, as it unveils 10 awkward questions for Ukraine (and perhaps the US 'snap judgment') to answer about the MH17 disaster. However, what is perhaps more concerning for the hordes of finger-pointers is that:

• RUSSIA HAS IMAGES OF UKRAINE DEPLOYING BUK ROCKETS IN EAST: IFX
• RUSSIA: UKRAINE MOVED BUK NEAR REBELS IN DONETSK JULY 17: IFX
• RUSSIA DETECTED UKRAINIAN FIGHTER JET PICK UP SPEED TOWARD MH17

Obviously, if there is proof that this is so, aside from CIA-created YouTube clips, these would deal another unpleasant blow to US foreign policy.

The Russian defense ministry during its press conference which concluded minutes ago:



Here is the full clip of the Russian ministry releasing its own forensic analysis of what happened to flight MH17 (with English translation).

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/KSpeo5RcQQo?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>


Russia wants to know why Ukraine moved its BUK missiles systems the day of the MH17 crash:

• RUSSIAN GENERAL STAFF HAS SPACE IMAGES OF SECTORS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES' POSITIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE, INCLUDING BUK MISSILE LUNCH SITES 8 KILOMETERS FROM LUHANSK - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY - interfax

The day the Malaysian airliner crashed, the Ukrainian forces deployed an air defense group of three or four Buk-M1 missile batteries near Donetsk, Lt. Gen. Andrei Kartapolov, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operations Department, told reporters on Monday.

"These surface-to-air systems are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 35 kilometers at an altitude of 22 kilometers. For what purpose and against whom were these missile systems deployed? As is known, the militia has no aviation," he said.

Russia has the flight paths of the Ukrainian fighters and MH17. Furthermore, it is asking the same question we asked last Thurday:

• RUSSIA SAYS MH17 DIVERGED 14 KM FROM FLIGHT PATH NEAR DONETSK

And wants to know why. The image (as seen in the presentation above) allegedly shows Ukraine fighter jets near MH17:



Here is a screengrab of a Su-25 fighter jet detected close to MH17 before crash.


As RT reports,

“A Ukraine Air Force military jet was detected gaining height, it’s distance from the Malaysian Boeing was 3 to 5km,” said the head of the Main Operations Directorate of the HQ of Russia’s military forces, Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov speaking at a media conference in Moscow on Monday.

“[We] would like to get an explanation as to why the military jet was flying along a civil aviation corridor at almost the same time and at the same level as a passenger plane,” he stated.

“The SU-25 fighter jet can gain an altitude of 10km, according to its specification,” he added. “It’s equipped with air-to-air R-60 missiles that can hit a target at a distance up to 12km, up to 5km for sure.”

The presence of the Ukrainian military jet can be confirmed by video shots made by the Rostov monitoring center, Kartopolov stated.

And asks for US proof of their accusations:

• RUSSIA SAYS U.S. SATELLITE FLEW OVER MH17 AT TIME IT WAS DOWNED... which would provide all the proof needed to show who is responsible - so why hasn't the US explained this or shown it?
• RUSSIA ASKS U.S. FOR EVIDENCE ROCKET FIRED FROM REBEL-HELD AREA
• RUSSIA: NO U.S. PROOF THAT MISSILE FIRED FROM REBEL-HELD AREA
• DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS RUSSIA DID NOT DELIVER ANY SA-11 BUK MISSILE SYSTEMS TO SEPARATISTS IN EASTERN UKRAINE "OR ANY OTHER WEAPONS"

And went on to rebuke all the Twitter photos created by Maidan to 'prove' the BUKs were moving in Russian hands.
Summing it all up, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has 10 questions for Ukraine (google translated)

The global public expects a speedy and independent investigation into the causes of the disaster Malaysian aircraft in the airspace of Ukraine.

In order to conduct an objective investigation of possible leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has ased ten questions to the Ukrainian side.

1. Ukrainian authorities immediately identified the militia as the perpetrators of the tragedy. What is the basis of such findings?

2. Could official Kiev to report all the details of using [BUKs] in a war zone? Most importantly - why these systems are deployed there, as the militia no planes?

3. What are the causes of inactivity of Ukrainian authorities on the formation of an international commission? When such a committee will work?

4. Are the armed forces of Ukraine international experts to present papers on accounting for missiles, air-to-air and ground-to-air ammo and anti-aircraft missiles?

5. Whether these funds objective control on the movement of the Ukrainian Air Force aircraft on the day of the tragedy brought international commission?

6. Why Ukrainian air traffic controllers allowed deviation of the route of the aircraft to the north side of the "anti-terrorist operation zone"?

7. Why was not completely closed to civilian aircraft airspace over the combat zone, especially because in this area there was no solid field of radar navigation?

8. Could official Kiev to comment on reports in the net, ostensibly on behalf of the Spanish air traffic controllers working in Ukraine, which shot down over the territory of Ukraine "Boeing" was accompanied by two Ukrainian military aircraft?

9. Why Security Service of Ukraine has begun without international representatives work with recordings of talks with Ukrainian crew dispatchers "Boeing" and Ukrainian radar data?

10. How were the lessons from previous similar disasters Russian Tu-154 in 2001 in the Black Sea? Then the leaders of Ukraine until the last minute denied any involvement of the Armed Forces of the country to the tragedy until irrefutable evidence showed no guilt official Kiev.

Unfortunately, there has been no response by the Ukraine side to these questions so far. We expect that there will be some answers.
* * *
Needless to say, this places Ukraine and The US (as main protagonist of "finger pointer") in an awkward position as finally someone, somewhere will have to present some actual facts instead of merely continuing the "emotional appeals" propaganda.

We expect many of these questions to be answered once the contents of flight MH17's black box are revealed and/or when Ukraine finally releases an undoctored version of the Air Traffic control recording with the doomed flight.

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

the empty suit strikes again

A dangerous suit perhaps. They are planting the seeds to Armageddon in the future by creating chaos everywhere. All these terrorists won't stop at just Iraq and Syria.

The strategy will backfire in time to come. If the middle east erupts in flames. Who will be the biggest loser? Who uses cars as the primary mode and in most cases, the only available mode of transport?

[don]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

I think Obama was really pissed off by the Snowden incident when he was caught red-handed for spying on allies, and how Russia prevented him from being nabbed.

the empty suit strikes again

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

I think Obama was really pissed off by the Snowden incident when he was caught red-handed for spying on allies, and how Russia prevented him from being nabbed.

David Stockman . . . .

perhaps the larger point is that both the Obama administration and the U.S. press corps should stop this pattern of rushing to judgments. It’s as if they’re obsessed with waging “information warfare” – i.e., justifying hostilities toward some adversarial nation – rather than responsibly informing the American people.We saw this phenomenon in 2002-03 as nearly the entire Washington press corps clambered onboard President George W. Bush’s propaganda bandwagon into an aggressive war against Iraq. That pattern almost repeated itself last summer when a similar rush to judgment occurred around a sarin gas attack outside Damascus, Syria, on Aug. 21.

In watching Obama’s address, I was struck by how casually he lied. He knew better than almost anyone that some of his senior intelligence analysts were among those doubting the Syrian government’s guilt. Yet, he suggested that anyone who wasn’t onboard the propaganda train was crazy.


Now, we are seeing a repeat performance in which Obama understands the doubts about the identity of who fired the missile that brought down the Malaysian airliner but is pushing the suspicions in a way designed to whip up animosity toward Russia and President Putin.


Obama may think this is a smart play because he can posture as tough when many of his political enemies portray him as weak. He also buys himself some P.R. protection in case it turns out that the ethnic Russian rebels or the Russian military do share the blame for the tragedy. He can claim to have been out front in making the accusations.

But there is a dangerous downside to creating a public hysteria about nuclear-armed Russia. As we have seen already in Ukraine, events can spiral out of control in unpredictably ways.

Assistant Secretary Nuland and other State Department hawks probably thought they were building their careers when they encouraged the Feb. 22 coup – and they may well be right about advancing their status in Official Washington at least. But they also thawed out long-frozen animosities between the “ethnically pure” Ukrainians in the west and the ethnic Russians in the east.

Those tensions – many dating back to World War II and before – have now become searing hatreds with hundreds of dead on both sides. The nasty, little Ukrainian civil war also made Thursday’s horror possible.

But even greater calamities could lie ahead if the State Department’s “anti-diplomats” succeed in reigniting the Cold War. The crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 should be a warning about the dangers of international brinkmanship.

[don]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

David Stockman . . . .

perhaps the larger point is that both the Obama administration and the U.S. press corps should stop this pattern of rushing to judgments. It’s as if they’re obsessed with waging “information warfare” – i.e., justifying hostilities toward some adversarial nation – rather than responsibly informing the American people.We saw this phenomenon in 2002-03 as nearly the entire Washington press corps clambered onboard President George W. Bush’s propaganda bandwagon into an aggressive war against Iraq. That pattern almost repeated itself last summer when a similar rush to judgment occurred around a sarin gas attack outside Damascus, Syria, on Aug. 21.

In watching Obama’s address, I was struck by how casually he lied. He knew better than almost anyone that some of his senior intelligence analysts were among those doubting the Syrian government’s guilt. Yet, he suggested that anyone who wasn’t onboard the propaganda train was crazy.


Now, we are seeing a repeat performance in which Obama understands the doubts about the identity of who fired the missile that brought down the Malaysian airliner but is pushing the suspicions in a way designed to whip up animosity toward Russia and President Putin.


Obama may think this is a smart play because he can posture as tough when many of his political enemies portray him as weak. He also buys himself some P.R. protection in case it turns out that the ethnic Russian rebels or the Russian military do share the blame for the tragedy. He can claim to have been out front in making the accusations.

But there is a dangerous downside to creating a public hysteria about nuclear-armed Russia. As we have seen already in Ukraine, events can spiral out of control in unpredictably ways.

Assistant Secretary Nuland and other State Department hawks probably thought they were building their careers when they encouraged the Feb. 22 coup – and they may well be right about advancing their status in Official Washington at least. But they also thawed out long-frozen animosities between the “ethnically pure” Ukrainians in the west and the ethnic Russians in the east.

Those tensions – many dating back to World War II and before – have now become searing hatreds with hundreds of dead on both sides. The nasty, little Ukrainian civil war also made Thursday’s horror possible.

But even greater calamities could lie ahead if the State Department’s “anti-diplomats” succeed in reigniting the Cold War. The crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 should be a warning about the dangers of international brinkmanship.

[don]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

the BBC reports "Ukraine's SBU security service has confiscated recordings of conversations between Ukrainian air traffic control officers and the crew of the doomed airliner, a source in Kiev has told Interfax news agency."


the salient point remains - who benefits? The rest is noise . . . .

[touchring]

Re: Did the allies bring down Malaysian Airline MH17?

Recordings can be fabricated - this is very easy, any teenager with an iPhone can do that. Of course I'm not saying that they are definitely fabricated.

The military transports were shot down at much lower altitudes and much lower than what commercial airlines fly, and besides, no commercial plane will fly directly over a war zone unless "tricked".

One of the first thing that I learned from MH370 is to disregard the MSM completely, but to use my common sense. Many claims were made for MH370 - that the plane flew over south china sea, that wreckage of the plane were sighted here and there, but we now know that 90% of reports on MSM were false.

I've only got 2 questions:

1). Why did MH17 deviate from the usual path that airliners use and fly into the war zone? As seen on the diagram below, the flight path on the 17th July deviated from the previous flight path.




2). It has been 4 days - where's the voice recording between Ukrainian air controllers and MH17? This most important piece of evidence has been concealed by the government.


Again I must say that I've no proof nor do I know who is responsible, but all this smells very fishy to me and looks like a setup.



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...N-BIRRELL.html

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While residents have been able to leave flowers, staff of Europe's OSCE claim they were blocked from the site

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Distraught: One woman puts her hand up to her face as she looks at the wreckage site

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Members of the Ukrainian Emergency Ministry worked late into the night retrieving bodies in body bags






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Retrieve: Ukrainian rescuers have been working at the scene to remove the victims, in body bags, from the site




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Standoff: World leaders have demanded that the rebels around Donetsk allow proper access to the site

There is credible evidence that Russians were manning the missile batteries. The rebels bragged on social media (deleted soon after) that they had shot down a plane at the time of the tragedy.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-i...ash-1405816389

MH 17 was the 3rd plane the Separatists shot down that week. The first two were Ukraine military transports. This proves they had the capability to shoot down a plane.

There is overwhelming evidence that the Separatists (with Russian help) made a tragic mistake.

It's always suspect when someone tries to cover up the facts:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...ight-MH17.html