the future is arriving earlier than we thought

[GRG55]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Here are the population pyramids by country



Causality between per capita economic wealth and family sizes has since been debunked -- yes in the 20th century, economic well being and family sizes were correlated -- however, it turns out that causality likely was because of other factors in the following order.

• Emancipation and education of women
• Abolition of child labor
• Free and compulsory education of children below the age of 16
• Information about and inexpensive availability of family planning methods

Also as far as India is concerned, IMO, it is already straining at the ecological limits of population, and I cannot see it in any way supporting the increased population implied in the above population pyramid.

I disagree with the debunking conclusion. The factors that are cited are ALL contributors to the improving economic wealth of families. The people that do these studies seem to have an agenda and conclusion already arrived at, and then "fit the data to the curve". We can argue the chicken and egg thing about which comes first, but all these elements are intertwined.

Thanks for the weblink!

[Rajiv]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

I forgot to add one more item to the list -- decreasing child mortality rates.

And yes the factors are all intertwined -- but it has been observed that without these factors, the fertility rates have not declined. Even in India, the states that were early in implementing these items are already at fertility rates approaching Italy's -- the lowest in the Western World

[GRG55]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

...Also as far as India is concerned, IMO, it is already straining at the ecological limits of population, and I cannot see it in any way supporting the increased population implied in the above population pyramid.

That explains your earlier comment comparing India vs China. Taking the data as is suggests somewhat the opposite conclusion, since China comes out looking more like Japan and Germany than India does.

I forgot to add one more item to the list -- decreasing child mortality rates.

And yes the factors are all intertwined -- but it has been observed that without these factors, the fertility rates have not declined. Even in India, the states that were early in implementing these items are already at fertility rates approaching Italy's -- the lowest in the Western World

Again, supporting the view that the birthrate projections in the model may prove to be too high, and that has enormous ramifications.

Looking at the patterns, Japan, Germany, and to a lesser degree France, would all appear to have a serious problem keeping the conventional economic model working, unless they step up immigration rates...which seems unlikely at least in the case of the first two.

[Adeptus]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

I forgot to add one more item to the list -- decreasing child mortality rates.

For a second there I thought you said 'decreasing child MORALITY rates', which is also true and perhaps just a big a factor in the grand scheme of things.

I think worrying about China/India in 2050 is such a far away problem, not to mention out of our hands to do anything about that other than reading this thread, it's hardly worth my time to think about.

Having been to India 3 times in the past 4 years, I can tell you that Indians have no regard for hygiene and recycling is an alien a concept as well... aliens. The number of slums in the big cities is horrendous. Africa aside, it's gotta have the biggest slums anywhere that I can think of. Many of the slums have sewage pipes running open right through the middle of them. The stink, insects and potential for disease is inhuman. Even animals live in better conditions.

When you get out into the remote villages (and there's literally thousands of them), I was shocked at the way people lived. It's like I stepped out of a time machine that went back in time 200+ years. Other than the odd story on national geographic about new Amazon native tribes found, I had no idea people still lived today in such ancient ways. People were living in mud huts with straw roofs and collecting cow dung pies (with their hands) for use as fuel in cooking fires. There was no electricity is most of the huts (although most villages did have *some* electrical poles - mostly for the small business shops and the 1 or 2 telephones that existed for the entire village). I also remember seeing one shop where they ironed peoples clothes. When I looked at the iron he was using, it wasn't electrical. The iron opened up in half and they put hot coals inside to generate the heat. I instantly had a flashback to my great-grandmother's iron that I once saw as a child in my grandmother's living-room china cabinet as a display item.

With this though, the environmental conditions in rural villages was 10x cleaner and better. Most of the pollution here was plastics and paper on the road, but I also sensed the illiteracy rate was through the roof, but at least people there looked happier, even if very poor.

If India is to become a super power, it will be for the elite of India, not from the perspective of 90% of the population. You first need to reform education and wait 2 generations before being ready, not to mention deal with the exploding population and pollution issues. Education as it stands today, is very poor. The minimum passing grade in most Universities for a Bachelors degree is 35%! And due to all the corruption, you can bet many get their degrees for a few hundred rupees, not study time and brains.

Having said all this, I'm very bullish on India long term, but I'll still wait a year or two (at least) before jumping in. At least until this global financial crisis clears up a bit and India's exit from the crisis is more clear. Currently their urban growth was fueled by a service industry. Whom are they going to service if the West collapses?

Adeptus

[skyson]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Just want to let you guys know, China now is relaxing the one-child policy. For example, if both parents are themselves single child, they could have more than one child. This is even true in the cities.

There is more talks of relaxing the policy in the future, but the above is already in effect.

I don't have link to the source, but I know for fact from my extended family in China.

[BadJuju]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Just want to let you guys know, China now is relaxing the one-child policy. For example, if both parents are themselves single child, they could have more than one child. This is even true in the cities.

There is more talks of relaxing the policy in the future, but the above is already in effect.

I don't have link to the source, but I know for fact from my extended family in China.

Either way, they lose since they will have to dealt with an unsustainable population. :p

[wkwillis]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

The dependency ratio is what counts. You have more older people, but fewer young people. Over 15 and under 65 is productive, older than 65 and under 15 is dependent. It averages out for most population distributions.

[allenjs]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

"The big question is: what to do with all those "extra" males?"

Recall a song by Joan Baez, something like "The Universal Soldier"?

The second sons of Spain were the ones that shipped out to conquer the Incas & Aztecs, they had nothing to lose as they had no prospects of inheriting any land back home in Spain.

Etc. . . .

NYT reported that China now has an imbalance of about 32 million boys under age of 20:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/wo...ef=global-home

That would represent a pretty large army; there really isn't a conceivable war large enough to need that many soldiers. And it's doubtful that China will have a desire to send soldiers around the world, since they will probably be the world's most powerful economy in the next 20 years or so.

I predict that the Chinese men who cannot find wives in China will simply take ethnically Chinese women from Southeast Asia; and even women from Korea or Japan in increasing numbers. The consequences of an imbalanced male population will be imposed on the economically weaker neighbors.

[skyson]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

NYT reported that China now has an imbalance of about 32 million boys under age of 20:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/wo...ef=global-home

That would represent a pretty large army; there really isn't a conceivable war large enough to need that many soldiers. And it's doubtful that China will have a desire to send soldiers around the world, since they will probably be the world's most powerful economy in the next 20 years or so.

I predict that the Chinese men who cannot find wives in China will simply take ethnically Chinese women from Southeast Asia; and even women from Korea or Japan in increasing numbers. The consequences of an imbalanced male population will be imposed on the economically weaker neighbors.

Oh, yes. I often wonder about that point too. But being confined my thought with current economic conditions in China, I have never thought of "rich Chinese guy getting beautiful brides from neighboring poor countries" scenario. Maybe even American cuties in the future...

[cjppjc]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Oh, yes. I often wonder about that point too. But being confined my thought with current economic conditions in China, I have never thought of "rich Chinese guy getting beautiful brides from neighboring poor countries" scenario. Maybe even American cuties in the future...

Well there is certainly nothing new in that. See Russian brides.

[AlexPKeaton]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Looking at the patterns, Japan, Germany, and to a lesser degree France, would all appear to have a serious problem keeping the conventional economic model working, unless they step up immigration rates...which seems unlikely at least in the case of the first two.

Um, especially if they step up immigration rates. First, even the most “vibrant” immigrants are not immortal: they get one birthday per year just like citizens, and eventually will reach dependency age just like citizens.

Secondly, the “dependency ratio” isn’t just age-based: it’s about a household’s net tax payments. Just to break even, you need to ensure that the immigrants have an equal or greater proportion and magnitude of NET taxpaying households as the citizens they are purported to support. “All men are created equal,” but our paychecks are not: low-wage workers don’t pay much in taxes in any case, but when they have kids and qualify for EITC, food stamps, school lunch, public school, Medi-Cal, etc, they’ve definitely made the dependency ratio far, far worse.

Lastly, even relatively high-earning groups don’t seem to be the tax bonanza that one would expect: prime-age workers can and do suffer disabilities, and it’s fairly common for people to bring over their elderly parents, who receive old age benefits despite never having paid a single dollar of American taxes in their lifetime. (Obama's Aunt Zetuni, or example, began has been living in Boston public housing since about age 40, and has received disability payments through some portion of that time). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeituni

But your view is definitely promoted, because it is in the interest of some companies (such as Wal-Mart) to drive down wages and get a few more government-subsidized customers (“we accept EBT”) regardless of the impact on public finance. The insolvency of California and Texas despite booms in Silicon Valley and the oil industry, provide a very important lesson on this subject.

(The accounting is the same in Japan, France, and Germany: they would need to find a large supply of non-aging, high-earning orphan immigrants for your plan to work, with the added skill of also speaking Japanese, French, or German.)

[Glenn Black]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

513px-Chinapop.svg[1].pngChina's big struggle is the "cliff overhang" or gap-tooth in the age distribution, shown above for both males and females. These 2 generations of fewer people will mean many above and below them with few in the prime wealth generation phase, as was stated here previously. For more, see "Malthusian Disaster" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_disaster

China has implemented their population policy decades ago, but India has only recently even discussed population as policy, and has yet to make a significant effort to implement. China will max. out its population in another 20 years or so, then start to decline (ie. like turning a super tanker, it takes a long, long time to effect change) India is at least 50 years from a declining population, if they immediately changed policy and had perfect implementation.

[BigBagel]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

I feel so much shame at nuclear humor. I meant fire bomb them.

I'm sure citizens of Dresden and Hamburg are laughing at that one....

[srivatsan]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

India's asset is its people. Indians do not worry too much about "rules". Its about what works and don't.

China's big struggle is the "cliff overhang" or gap-tooth in the age distribution, shown above for both males and females. These 2 generations of fewer people will mean many above and below them with few in the prime wealth generation phase, as was stated here previously. For more, see "Malthusian Disaster" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_disaster

China has implemented their population policy decades ago, but India has only recently even discussed population as policy, and has yet to make a significant effort to implement. China will max. out its population in another 20 years or so, then start to decline (ie. like turning a super tanker, it takes a long, long time to effect change) India is at least 50 years from a declining population, if they immediately changed policy and had perfect implementation.

[jneal3]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

I'm sure citizens of Dresden and Hamburg are laughing at that one....

That took waaay too long....