the future is arriving earlier than we thought

[audrey_girl]

interesting article from the Independent about a rapidly approaching new economic future:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...r-1669987.html

"For the basic lesson of this cycle is becoming increasingly clear. The countries that are coming through in best shape are those with low debt levels, personal, corporate and governmental.

Imagine the world in another 20 years' time, when two of the top three spots are held by what we still call emerging nations – an expression which by then will have become antique because they will have emerged full and proper.

It is not just a world where Chinese and Indian attitudes to thrift will dominate, but one where we in the West will surely start to feel a little ashamed of our own diminished authority"

[goadam1]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

we can always nuke 'em.

[BadJuju]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

It is not just a world where Chinese and Indian attitudes to thrift will dominate, but one where we in the West will surely start to feel a little ashamed of our own diminished authority"

I fail to see a future in which China and India are superpowers. They are on a collision course with nature due to their ridiculously large populations.

[jk]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

china is headed for a demographic catastrophe, caught between an overlarge population and the rapid graying and enormous dependency ratios in the future that will be the product of the 1-child policy.

[GRG55]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

china is headed for a demographic catastrophe, caught between an overlarge population and the rapid graying and enormous dependency ratios in the future that will be the product of the 1-child policy.

China would not appear to be alone, of course. Many nations, particularly those that actively discourage immigration, are on this track now. And some of the leaders such as Japan and parts of Western Europe, may be the incubators for policy experiments on how to deal with this, that other nations a bit further back on the curve may learn from?

It would seem that not only is the 25 year old FIRE economy dying, but perhaps superimposed on this is the demise of an entire post-WWII model for economic growth that is dependent upon ever-increasing population & consumption & production, and a constantly enlarging workforce to fund the private and public entitlement programs for those exiting.

We've already have a working model of how this formula does not work in the private sector when the retirees outnumber the workers [Big 3/UAW]. Going to be interesting to see how we cope with this as a public, international issue...

[halcyon]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

we can always nuke 'em.

I'm sure citizens of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are laughing at that one....

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

GRG Have you seen any models of the result of the one child policy? I'm no expert but my "back of the cigarette packet" figurings you rapidly end up with ratios of 5 or 6 retirees to 1 working age?

[nero3]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

It's not my main scenario, but I can certainly see a scenario, where interest rates, in all over the developed world stand at 0 %, not only the US, and everyone is running the printing presses, expanding the monetary base. That will almost certainly feed the emerging countries, that in that scenario, will be a hedge against our declining currencies, as they will have relative strength in their currencies, low debt, and a very effective money multiplier, they will almost certainly have booming economies, even if the developed world suffer something similar Japan from 2001 and on (that partly resemble the way US printed during WW2), there will certainly develop a carry trade towards emerging economies, gold will also be attractive.

[cobben]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

You can generate a dynamic graph at the site.

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

Population Pyramid Summary for China

[Chomsky]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/id...t=Submit+Query

Population Pyramid Summary for China

The big question is: what to do with all those "extra" males?

[cobben]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

"The big question is: what to do with all those "extra" males?"

Recall a song by Joan Baez, something like "The Universal Soldier"?

The second sons of Spain were the ones that shipped out to conquer the Incas & Aztecs, they had nothing to lose as they had no prospects of inheriting any land back home in Spain.

Etc. . . .

[Rajiv]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Here is a comparison of India and China -- Just based on this I would say that India is in much deeper doodoo than China!

[goadam1]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

I'm sure citizens of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are laughing at that one....

I feel so much shame at nuclear humor. I meant fire bomb them.

[GRG55]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Here is a comparison of India and China -- Just based on this I would say that India is in much deeper doodoo than China!

Rajiv: Is there anything similar to show what is going on in selected developed economy nations to compare? Japan, Germany, France USA would be interesting.

Second, the projections into mid-decade have to be based on some assumptions of birth rate pattersn in China and India. Is it possible that, just as in the developed economies, if China and India indeed increase their per capita wealth rapidly in the early part of this decade, that birth rates decline faster than current projections...I believe that's exactly what happened in North America; the forecasts in the 1960s and 1970s did not properly anticipate the drop in the birth rate we've seen since.

[Rajiv]

Re: the future is arriving earlier than we thought

Rajiv: Is there anything similar to show what is going on in selected developed economy nations to compare? Japan, Germany, France USA would be interesting.

Here are the population pyramids by country

Second, the projections into mid-decade have to be based on some assumptions of birth rate patterns in China and India. Is it possible that, just as in the developed economies, if China and India indeed increase their per capita wealth rapidly in the early part of this decade, that birth rates decline faster than current projections...I believe that's exactly what happened in North America; the forecasts in the 1960s and 1970s did not properly anticipate the drop in the birth rate we've seen since.

Causality between per capita economic wealth and family sizes has since been debunked -- yes in the 20th century, economic well being and family sizes were correlated -- however, it turns out that causality likely was because of other factors in the following order.

• Emancipation and education of women
• Abolition of child labor
• Free and compulsory education of children below the age of 16
• Information about and inexpensive availability of family planning methods

Also as far as India is concerned, IMO, it is already straining at the ecological limits of population, and I cannot see it in any way supporting the increased population implied in the above population pyramid.