Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

[Slimprofits]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Our information is that the FDIC is prepared for 1,000 banks to close over the next three years, primarily due to over-exposure to commercial real estate.

Thanks FRED!

[raja]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Been wondering this myself. With Wall street crashing, how safe are the brokerages? If there's a run on brokerage accounts, can the firms handle it?

I called up Ameritrade and spoke to a broker there.

Using my holding in CEF as an example, he said that Ameritrade sends my name to a transfer entity showing the number of shares I have. The transfer entity then registers my name with CEF.

However, when I called CEF, they said that brokerages have some sort of group accounts, and CEF does not have the registrations in the name of the individual stock buyers who purchase through brokerages. Thus, if I keep the stock in Ameritrade, I'm relying on Ameritrade and the transfer entity to keep it all straight. CEF suggested that I get Ameritrade to send me the actual stock certificate if I wanted to be secure in my investment.

The problem with a certificate is that the process of cashing it in is slow and cumbersome, i.e., the physical certificate has to be sent somewhere to sell the shares.

Another worry: My wifes says, "If there is a hyperinflation or some other extreme financial crisis causing social turmoil, how do we know that CEF will still be operating and the gold will still be in the safe." Good question.

I suppose it all boils down to allocating one's portfolio according to the level of risk that one attributes to the various possible scenarios that are looming. There's a trade-off of security versus convenience and being able to sell quickly.
I'm still on the fence about what to do about CEF . . . .

[we_are_toast]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Can anyone refer to a list of the most solvent BROKERAGES to keep one's stocks/funds at? It's either not part of or hard to find amongst TheStreet.com's bank/thrift screener referenced in Weiss' paper.

Been wondering this myself. With Wall street crashing, how safe are the brokerages? If there's a run on brokerage accounts, can the firms handle it?

[Redwoods]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Can anyone refer to a list of the most solvent BROKERAGES to keep one's stocks/funds at? It's either not part of or hard to find amongst TheStreet.com's bank/thrift screener referenced in Weiss' paper.

[ER59]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Hope it is helpful. I came across of the Unofficial list of troubled banks as of 06/30/2008:
http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers.com/

EverBank is not on the list because "...a huge portion of Everbank's non-performing assets are GNMA loans guaranteed by Uncle Sam. The default rates on these are quite high."

There is the HELOC, Comm. RE & Construction Loan Exposure as of 06/30/2008 as well:
http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledassets.htm

[c1ue]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Just to be clear, I have not researched Everbank and don't have any particular informed opinion on them.

I am, however, aware of numerous instances in the past where various marketing ploys were used to bring in deposits. In the beginning, it was a free toaster...

Everbank may have used the 'foreign exchange' angle as one to get deposits, then played the MBS game via leverage.

However, they might not have. Or maybe some other game was being played. Or not.

I just don't know.

But if I were to put money there, be damned if I didn't find out!

[metalman]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Not bad work, for a guy who has occasionally been disparaged as a "stopped clock" in this community in the past. Apparently Mr. Weiss has his good uses, when the real meltdown begins (which he's been forecasting for a half dozen years anyway). I always found their group's research pretty good - but it seems Weiss has only recently been gaining "reputability" on these pages.

his research is fantastico! his prognostications are strictly it's midnight all day every day ...

Global Markets Face `Severe Correction,' Faber Says

Last Updated: January 8, 2007 10:58 EST

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, who predicted the U.S. stock market crash in 1987, said global assets are poised for a ``severe correction'' and it's time to sell.

``In the next few months, we could get a severe correction in all asset markets,'' Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York. ``In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate.''

[ER59]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

I called EverBank in July when I was researching banks ratings and the bank emailed to me the following announcement: "the Everbank Corp announced record earning of $44.7 million for the first half of 2008, an increase of 162% over the $17.1 million recorded in the first half of 2007. 2008 year-to-date benefited from EverBank's gain from sale of its share of EverBank Reverse Mortgage LLC to MetLife Inc. ..." It calmed me down a bit but now I am having the second bout of panic attack

[cschx]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Maybe the market isn't safe any more.:eek::p

Hm, bankrate gives Everbank four stars, but the attached list in the beginning of this thread seems to suggest otherwise. My running amateur conclusion on all this bank analysis is: nobody really knows for sure. Or if someone knows for sure, they aren't talking.

EVERBANK
JACKSONVILLE, Florida
Bankrate.com Star Rating:
Safe & Sound CAEL Rating: 2

I've been wondering about this myself. I checked Bankrate and the only five-star bank they show in my area is Comerica. The tiny local credit union (where I currently have most of my money) rates four stars. Somehow I feel like the credit union has to be safer than a huge commerical bank like Comerica.

[zoog]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Thank you, zoog, very much!

Suffering a panic attack I forgot that I opened one account under the trust name and the other is under my own name for the specific reason of getting protection in case of failure. TheStreet.com gives C+ to EverBank but I am not sure about the Street rating.

From Terms and Conditions: the early withdrawals do not receive principal protection and the price WILL BE COMPUTED DIFFERENTLY FROM THE MATURITY AMOUNT. I could ask for an indicative preliminary Early Withdrawal Price from the bank to be able to make an informed decision though.

Interesting fact: the bank does not offer MarketSafe CDs any longer.

Maybe the market isn't safe any more.:eek::p

Hm, bankrate gives Everbank four stars, but the attached list in the beginning of this thread seems to suggest otherwise. My running amateur conclusion on all this bank analysis is: nobody really knows for sure. Or if someone knows for sure, they aren't talking.

EVERBANK
JACKSONVILLE, Florida
Bankrate.com Star Rating:
Safe & Sound CAEL Rating: 2

[ER59]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Thank you, zoog, very much!

Suffering a panic attack I forgot that I opened one account under the trust name and the other is under my own name for the specific reason of getting protection in case of failure. TheStreet.com gives C+ to EverBank but I am not sure about the Street rating.

From Terms and Conditions: the early withdrawals do not receive principal protection and the price WILL BE COMPUTED DIFFERENTLY FROM THE MATURITY AMOUNT. I could ask for an indicative preliminary Early Withdrawal Price from the bank to be able to make an informed decision though.

Interesting fact: the bank does not offer MarketSafe CDs any longer.

[zoog]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

I have two MarketSafe CDs with EverBank. Two of them together are over 100,000.00 limit. One CD (Resources) will mature in 10 months; the second (Gold) in 2,5 years. I am a single mom trying to protect my money to be able to help my daughter with college and I am scared! Any recommendations? Thank you!

Well, I'm hardly an expert in such things, but that doesn't usually stop me.;)

Ten months suddenly seems like a long time, the way things are going these days. I figure you could either ride it out and hope for the best, or see if you can withdraw the funds in that CD early and pay whatever fees they charge.

If I've found the right info on Everbank's site:

2.5.5. Early Withdrawal Penalties: We will impose an early withdrawal penalty on withdrawals made before the maturity date of the CD. This penalty will be equal to one-fourth of the total interest that would have been earned on the principal balance of the account if funds had not been withdrawn prior to the maturity date. Early withdrawal penalties may be waived, at our discretion, in the event of death or legal incompetence of any of the Account Holders, as shown on our records.

So hypothetically if the principle was $100,000 and the rate is 5%, you'd be making roughly $5000 in interest, so about $1250 in fees to bail out early. Doesn't seem so bad I guess, but of course you'd want to talk to Everbank and maybe a financial adviser to make sure you understand all the fees, taxes, and other implications.

[ER59]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

I have two MarketSafe CDs with EverBank. Two of them together are over 100,000.00 limit. One CD (Resources) will mature in 10 months; the second (Gold) in 2,5 years. I am a single mom trying to protect my money to be able to help my daughter with college and I am scared! Any recommendations? Thank you!

[zoog]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Everbank has been selling itself as a foreign exchange safe haven against the dollar's fall.

But the fact that it has billions of troubled real estate related bonds...seems to be contradictory no?

I see what you mean now, thanks. I looked at some of their foreign-currency and other "exotic" options, but didn't like the details. I do have a basic savings account with them. Well under the FDIC coverage, but just the same I have been thinking about moving the money to short term treasuries.

I can't complain, it is much more comprehensive than any of the other lists I've been able to find in the public domain.

Side question - do you think there is a reason, other than perhaps a political one, that the FDIC website isn't designed so that people can search through their database by specific assets and liabilities, rather than just institution names and locations? Maybe they don't want us to be able to to sort out the top 500 banks with heavy exposure to mortgage-backed securities. I can't imagine it being a technical limitation either.

Actually, in this case I think the tin foil hat must remain off.

The FDIC's job is to insure deposits and dispose of failed banks in an orderly fashion. Their job is not to help depositors determine if banks are well managed or not.

Strictly speaking their 'watch' list is just an advisory anyway - neither IndyMac, WaMu, nor Wachovia have hit the list. The former 2 have gone straight to OTS and the latter may skip even that step.

The real question is this: The government theoretically has some institution responsible for regulating banks. This is, I believe, the Fed. Why does the Fed not have such information?

The bankrate.com bank ratings tool that EJ mentioned elsewhere is, IMO, nearly as obtuse as the FDIC, except that after a lot of clickity-clickity, you do finally end up with an actual bank name and associated rating. But there's no simple way, that I could find, to say "just show me all the banks and credit unions that are rated five stars in one big nice easy to read list". If they're not intentionally making it difficult, at the very least no one is making it easy for people to find a stable place to keep their money.

[c1ue]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Why the amusement?

Everbank has been selling itself as a foreign exchange safe haven against the dollar's fall.

But the fact that it has billions of troubled real estate related bonds...seems to be contradictory no?

Side question - do you think there is a reason, other than perhaps a political one, that the FDIC website isn't designed so that people can search through their database by specific assets and liabilities, rather than just institution names and locations? Maybe they don't want us to be able to to sort out the top 500 banks with heavy exposure to mortgage-backed securities. I can't imagine it being a technical limitation either.

Actually, in this case I think the tin foil hat must remain off.

The FDIC's job is to insure deposits and dispose of failed banks in an orderly fashion. Their job is not to help depositors determine if banks are well managed or not.

Strictly speaking their 'watch' list is just an advisory anyway - neither IndyMac, WaMu, nor Wachovia have hit the list. The former 2 have gone straight to OTS and the latter may skip even that step.

The real question is this: The government theoretically has some institution responsible for regulating banks. This is, I believe, the Fed. Why does the Fed not have such information?