Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

[Slimprofits]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

It is amusing that Everbank was on one of the lists in the appendices.

It would have been useful for Weiss et al to break out the deposits vs. bad debts.

I can't complain, it is much more comprehensive than any of the other lists I've been able to find in the public domain.

Side question - do you think there is a reason, other than perhaps a political one, that the FDIC website isn't designed so that people can search through their database by specific assets and liabilities, rather than just institution names and locations? Maybe they don't want us to be able to to sort out the top 500 banks with heavy exposure to mortgage-backed securities. I can't imagine it being a technical limitation either.

[zoog]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

It is amusing that Everbank was on one of the lists in the appendices.

It would have been useful for Weiss et al to break out the deposits vs. bad debts.

Why the amusement?

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

Not bad work, for a guy who has occasionally been disparaged as a "stopped clock" in this community in the past. Apparently Mr. Weiss has his good uses, when the real meltdown begins (which he's been forecasting for a half dozen years anyway). I always found their group's research pretty good - but it seems Weiss has only recently been gaining "reputability" on these pages.

There is some valuable data in this white paper. Weiss apparently submitted this to Congress for consideration during the giveaway negotiations. Do not skip over the tables in the Appendixes!

[Mega]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

You know, these numbers are just stunning...........Its the end!

"Fidel" could just walk into America now and decare victory!

Sad end of a super power.
Mike

[c1ue]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

It is amusing that Everbank was on one of the lists in the appendices.

It would have been useful for Weiss et al to break out the deposits vs. bad debts.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Weiss Research: 1,479 U.S. banks and 158 U.S. thrifts are at risk of failure

There is some valuable data in this white paper. Weiss apparently submitted this to Congress for consideration during the giveaway negotiations.

Do not skip over the tables in the Appendixes!

That seems to be a nice find, babbitt, and I guess trumps the three one-paragraph emails I sent to my dip-shit senators and congresswoman. I guess they all stayed up late Thursday night reading Weiss's report before tossing it into the round file.

If Weiss is anywhere near correct, the days, weeks, months ?years ahead should be interesting.

[Slimprofits]

There is some valuable data in this white paper. Weiss apparently submitted this to Congress for consideration during the giveaway negotiations.

Do not skip over the tables in the Appendixes!

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/files...hite-Paper.pdf

The FDIC’s list currently has 117 institutions with $78 billion in assets... We believe a more accurate count of problem banks can be derived from our analysis of: (a) the derivative risks assumed by major banks, (b) the mortgage holdings of the largest regional banks and (c) all banks and thrifts with TheStreet.com’s Financial Strength Rating of D+ (weak) or lower.2 Based on this analysis, detailed in Appendixes A and C, we find that

• 1,479 FDIC member banks are at risk of failure with total assets of $2.4 trillion.
  
• In addition, 158 savings and loans are at risk with $756 billion in assets.
  
• In sum, banks and S&Ls at risk have assets of $3.2 trillion,3 or 41 times the assets of banks on the FDIC’s watch list.4

[..]

These data show that among institutions with $5 billion or more in total assets, there are 61 banks and 25 thrifts that are overexposed, holding $1.50 or more in nonperforming mortgages per dollar of risk-based capital.

[..]

Private sectors and local governments also own residential mortgages in substantial quantities...

• The issuers of asset-backed securities, now holding $2.1 trillion in mortgages,9
• Nonbank finance companies ($426 billion),10
• Credit unions ($332.4 billion),11
• State and local governments ($159 billion),12
• Life insurance companies ($61.6 billion),13 plus
• Private pension funds, government retirement funds and households themselves.

[..]

The current debate tends to focus exclusively on residential mortgages. But at many regional and superregional banks, much of the risk is currently in the commercial mortgage sector, where recent data denotes many of the same difficulties as the residential sector.

There are $2.6 trillion in commercial mortgages outstanding in the United States. As with residential mortgages, these are also dispersed widely beyond the banking sector — $644 billion held by issuers of asset-backed securities, $263 billion held by life insurers, $65 billion at nonbank finance companies and $37 billion at Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).14

[..]

There are currently $14.8 trillion in residential and commercial mortgages in America. But beyond mortgages, there is another $20.4 trillion in consumer and corporate debt.

[..]

Currently, the Fed estimates $2.7 trillion in municipal securities outstanding,15 most of which have been reliant on a bond insurance system that remains on the brink of collapse.16

[..]

The notional (face value) amount of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks is $180.3 trillion.18

• One single institution, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), holds $90 trillion, or 49.9% of all derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks...
• U.S. banks with the greatest credit exposure to derivatives are HSBC (with $7.21 in risk per dollar of capital), JPMorgan Chase (with $4.11 in risk on the dollar), Citibank ($2.79), Bank of America ($2.15) and Wachovia ($.77).21