Red alert

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[touchring]

Re: Red alert

A little more data is coming out now. Found this today. Take it with a grain of salt considering the source:

If these numbers are correct, then the fatality rate of 2.3% is similar to the Spanish Flu which was approx. 2.5%.

2019-nCoV appears to have a much higher infection rate than common flu. So even if most people who catch it only experience mild symptoms, the total number of cases and therefor total number of deaths could be much larger than that of the flu.

Thoughts, anyone?

I think it depends on whether there is a widespread community breakout as reinfections can be deadly even to people in their 20s and 30s even to immune over response. If there is reinfection, the fatality will be more than 2%.

This might explain why the situation is much more severe at the epicentre city Wuhan where there is widespread infection and probably reinfections, and many doctors in their 30s and recently one only 29 years old succumbing to the virus.

[shiny!]

Re: Red alert

A little more data is coming out now. Found this today. Take it with a grain of salt considering the source:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...antine-set-end

In a recent study, China's CCDC found that the virus's fatality rate - 14.8% - is for people aged 80 or older with co-occurring medical conditions. Young and healthy people, meanwhile, typically experience much more mild symptoms, according to the BBC. Along those same lines, the WHO confirmed on Tuesday that the virus manifests as only a minor infection in four out of five people who contract it, according to the Guardian.

For everybody still saying that the virus is no more dangerous than the annual flu outbreak, here's some food for thought: An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11, a fatality rate of 2.3%. That's far higher than the mortality rate for the seasonal flu.

If these numbers are correct, then the fatality rate of 2.3% is similar to the Spanish Flu which was approx. 2.5%.

According to the WHO as quoted in The Guardian:

“More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover, 14% have severe disease including pneumonia and shortness of breath, 5% have critical disease including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure, and 2% of cases are fatal,” Tedros said in Geneva. “The risk of death increases the older you are.”

2019-nCoV appears to have a much higher infection rate than common flu. So even if most people who catch it only experience mild symptoms, the total number of cases and therefor total number of deaths could be much larger than that of the flu.

Thoughts, anyone?

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[shiny!]

Re: Red alert

You're probably right, Mike. What I'm saying is that this has gone on long enough that by now I think it's fair to expect information such along the lines of:

"For every X number of people who contract it, only Y% get sick enough to go to the hospital, and of those, Z% die."

A statement such as this is long overdue, IMO. It makes me wonder why the prolonged news blackout?

Last year 80,000 Americans died of the flu. It barely made a ripple in the news. So I'm keeping things in perspective.

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

Its not the Black Death!
Frankly I can't see it being much more powerful than flu we have in the west.

My Father died of something very like this & these people have my thoughts at this time...........bur people in 3rd world nations are getting & recovering from this

Mike

[shiny!]

Re: Red alert

Certainly a number of people under quarantine must have it, and if they have it, how severe are their symptoms? Why am I not seeing cellphone videos from sick people saying, "I have it. It feels like a cold," or "it feels like the flu," or "I think I'm dying," or "I don't have any symptoms."

I think I saw one woman saying the latter, but with so many thousands of cases, that's awfully scant first-hand reporting. The silence is NOT normal.

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

The most likely place to catch Novel Corona? China? Nope. Wuhan? Not even close. It's a cruise ship. Happy sailing.

The infection rate more than doubled in the last 24 hours. Now one in 27 passengers are confirmed to be infected. This is the Coronavirus Petri dish. Princess Cruises will throw all of their resources at this problem to ensure their brand will not be tarnished any more than it has so far. Possibly, if everyone survives or almost everyone survives, they look like heros for their effort to protect their customers in an extremely unfortunate circumstance. While I do feel sorry for these folks, for me, this is the most interesting scenario. Is Corona just a very bad flu, that with proper treatment, can be managed or is it deadly? It's difficult to judge government reactions and management but it's never difficult to judge a company's reaction to a problem that may bankrupt them. I don't subscribe to or watch the US MSM but this should be the biggest story they're covering.

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

The most likely place to catch Novel Corona? China? Nope. Wuhan? Not even close. It's a cruise ship. Happy sailing.

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Red alert

I'd like to see total current death rate vs. seasonal average for China.
The figures given just for 2019-nCOV sound like classification issues, for example due to people dying at home in quarantine without ever having been tested.

I’m basing it entirely on the following:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

It assumes 2019-nCOV counts are clean.

If I had to guess, there is greater risk of undercounting from:

1)Uncounted infected/dead at home.
2)Undercounting by authorities to reduce panic

If there is a classification error with overcounting due to infection/death from common flu/other then I would think that’s a good thing and reduce the growth rate of infection/mortality.

[FrankL]

Re: Red alert

Known Infection growth rate & known mortality growth rate have cut in half in the last 2 days, assuming accurate aggregate data.

If the previous growth rates(approx 22% daily compounding) had held we were looking at 3 million infected, 60k dead by March 1st.

If the big & fast drop in the growth rate continues, it may be only 30k, or only 6k, or only ?

For wave 1.

Strong possibility, perhaps probability, that there will be a wave 2.

I'd like to see total current death rate vs. seasonal average for China.
The figures given just for 2019-nCOV sound like classification issues, for example due to people dying at home in quarantine without ever having been tested.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Red alert

While still a small number, (45), cases in Japan have doubled in the last few days giving them a solid, and unenviable, #2 position. Hopefully this is not a trend. If radioactive Japan does not keep Olympic goers away Coronavirus Japan certainly will. In China, cases have more than tripled in the last week reaching almost 31,000. At the current rate, there will be 100,000 cases next week and 1,000,000 cases 2 weeks after that.

Known Infection growth rate & known mortality growth rate have cut in half in the last 2 days, assuming accurate aggregate data.

If the previous growth rates(approx 22% daily compounding) had held we were looking at 3 million infected, 60k dead by March 1st.

If the big & fast drop in the growth rate continues, it may be only 30k, or only 6k, or only ?

For wave 1.

Strong possibility, perhaps probability, that there will be a wave 2.

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

Ah, it seems that Western peoples have a LOT more resitance to this virus.

While still a small number, (45), cases in Japan have doubled in the last few days giving them a solid, and unenviable, #2 position. Hopefully this is not a trend. If radioactive Japan does not keep Olympic goers away Coronavirus Japan certainly will. In China, cases have more than tripled in the last week reaching almost 31,000. At the current rate, there will be 100,000 cases next week and 1,000,000 cases 2 weeks after that.