Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

[ASH]

According to the BBC:

The Syrian military has said it shot down a Turkish plane "flying in airspace over Syrian waters", according to state-run news agency Sana.

"[The jet] was dealt with in accordance with the laws that govern such situations," a military spokesman said.

Turkey had earlier said it believed that one of its F-4 fighter jets had been shot down by Syrian forces.

A search for the two crew members is under way, involving Turkish and Syrian coast guard ships.

The F-4 Phantom disappeared over the Mediterranean, south-west of Hatay province, near the Syrian coast.

A military spokesman told Sana that an "unidentified target" had broached Syrian airspace from a westerly direction at 11:40 local time (08:40 GMT) on Friday.

The target was flying at high speed and at low altitude, the spokesman said.

Anti-aircraft defences had hit the plane with artillery, bringing it down in the sea 10km (6.2 miles) off the coast of Latakia province, he added.

"It later became clear the target was a Turkish military plane which had entered our airspace," he continued.

Earlier on Friday evening, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a two-hour emergency meeting with his interior, defence and foreign ministers and the Chief of the General Staff, Gen Necdet Ozel.

Mr Erdogan's office said that Turkey would respond decisively once all the circumstances were established.

Given the breakdown in relations between the two countries over the Syrian conflict, this incident has the potential to provoke a serious crisis, the BBC's Jonathan Head in Istanbul reports.

Relations between Nato-member Turkey and Syria, once close allies, have deteriorated sharply since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011.

Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled the violence across the border into Turkey.

I had the impression that although Turkey deplores Assad's crackdown on protesters of Assad's rule, Turkey was unlikely to intervene directly inside Syria. However, this could be fanned into a casus belli, if the intent is there. I wonder what the popular reaction in Turkey will be, and whether this changes the diplomatic considerations surrounding military intervention inside Syria.

Edit: I originally posted this to the wrong forum. I moved it.

[metalman]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

According to the BBC:

The Syrian military has said it shot down a Turkish plane "flying in airspace over Syrian waters", according to state-run news agency Sana.

"[The jet] was dealt with in accordance with the laws that govern such situations," a military spokesman said.

Turkey had earlier said it believed that one of its F-4 fighter jets had been shot down by Syrian forces.

A search for the two crew members is under way, involving Turkish and Syrian coast guard ships.

The F-4 Phantom disappeared over the Mediterranean, south-west of Hatay province, near the Syrian coast.

A military spokesman told Sana that an "unidentified target" had broached Syrian airspace from a westerly direction at 11:40 local time (08:40 GMT) on Friday.

The target was flying at high speed and at low altitude, the spokesman said.

Anti-aircraft defences had hit the plane with artillery, bringing it down in the sea 10km (6.2 miles) off the coast of Latakia province, he added.

"It later became clear the target was a Turkish military plane which had entered our airspace," he continued.

Earlier on Friday evening, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a two-hour emergency meeting with his interior, defence and foreign ministers and the Chief of the General Staff, Gen Necdet Ozel.

Mr Erdogan's office said that Turkey would respond decisively once all the circumstances were established.

Given the breakdown in relations between the two countries over the Syrian conflict, this incident has the potential to provoke a serious crisis, the BBC's Jonathan Head in Istanbul reports.

Relations between Nato-member Turkey and Syria, once close allies, have deteriorated sharply since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011.

Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled the violence across the border into Turkey.

I had the impression that although Turkey deplores Assad's crackdown on protesters of Assad's rule, Turkey was unlikely to intervene directly inside Syria. However, this could be fanned into a casus belli, if the intent is there. I wonder what the popular reaction in Turkey will be, and whether this changes the diplomatic considerations surrounding military intervention inside Syria.

Edit: I originally posted this to the wrong forum. I moved it.

chess game, no?

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...788#post231788

an agression against turkey to force a un vote?

un vote to force russia to sh*t or get off the pot for syria? stop putin from posturing against assad with obama... putin's got his own dictatorship to defend... protesters in the streets...

russia picks a side & china joins & usa does what?

usa owes china & russia big $$$.

ej says usa sovereign default (poom) to start with war... gee... hmmmm...

no expert... just sayin....

[ASH]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

chess game, no?

...

It's certainly interesting. Previously, I had concluded that no one with the capacity to intervene effectively in Syria was likely to do so. It looked to me like this was going to turn into a Saudi/Gulf Arab/US-funded insurgency with support for the rebels mostly funneled in through Turkey, but no heavy weapons or outside air support for the Syrian rebels. The Russians seemed likely to continue to support Syria diplomatically, and with arms sales, so I figured that Assad would come out on top in the end, because his side has all the heavy weapons and not many compunctions about using them.

As far as I can tell, the Syrians shooting down the F-4 wasn't necessarily a planned act of strategy, but rather the result of a tense general situation, and Turkish probing along the coast. This might not be part of anybody's plan, but it could have big consequences depending upon the personalities in Turkey.

[metalman]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

It's certainly interesting. Previously, I had concluded that no one with the capacity to intervene effectively in Syria was likely to do so. It looked to me like this was going to turn into a Saudi/Gulf Arab/US-funded insurgency with support for the rebels mostly funneled in through Turkey, but no heavy weapons or outside air support for the Syrian rebels. The Russians seemed likely to continue to support Syria diplomatically, and with arms sales, so I figured that Assad would come out on top in the end, because his side has all the heavy weapons and not many compunctions about using them.

As far as I can tell, the Syrians shooting down the F-4 wasn't necessarily a planned act of strategy, but rather the result of a tense general situation, and Turkish probing along the coast. This might not be part of anybody's plan, but it could have big consequences depending upon the personalities in Turkey.

thx. yeh, sh*t happens but syria's c4 is solid, no? syria's official statement re the incident will tell us if the action was approved at high levels or accidental...

[think365]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

This could get interesting and has all the elements necessary to go in any direction they want it to.

Syria 'shoots down Turkish fighter jet


Syrian air defences “shot down” the Turkish jet fighter that went missing while on patrol near the border between the two countries on Friday, according to local television reports.




By David Blair, and Barney Henderson
The Telegraph

4:16PM BST 22 Jun 2012

Reports in Turkey initially stated that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that Syria had apologised for shooting down the plane.


"Syria immediately offered a very serious apology for the incident and admitted it was a mistake", Haberturk daily newspaper quoted Mr Erdogan as saying onboard a plane on the way to Turkey from Brazil.


However, Mr Erdogan later told a news conference that he could not confirm reports that Syria had shot it down and had apologised.


He said he had no word on the fate of the pilot and navigator on board.


"The chief of general staff has made the necessary statement about the missing plane. I am not saying it was brought down at the point it fell. It is not possible to say this without knowing the exact facts,"


The incident prompted the calling of an emergency security meeting to be led later on Friday by Mr Erdogan and attended by top military and intelligence chiefs.


The F-4 Phantom, a fighter bomber with a pilot and navigator on board, disappeared over the Mediterranean. All radar and radio contact with the aircraft was lost shortly after it departed from Erhac air base in Turkey's southern province of Malatya.


Turkey is a member of Nato, meaning that it could invoke Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty and summon the aid of all 28 countries in the alliance if it comes under attack. Turkey's government is a strident critic of President Bashar al-Assad's regime and tension has risen along the land border between the two neighbours.


A series of shooting incidents has taken place across this frontier so far this year. The Free Syrian Army, a rebel alliance fighting to overthrow Mr Assad, has a strong presence inside Turkey. The Turkish air force, one of the strongest in the region, conducts regular patrols through the highly sensitive airspace near Syria.



A Turkish military F-4 Phantom , similar to the one lost over Hatay in Turkey

[LargoWinch]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

chess game, no?

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...788#post231788

an agression against turkey to force a un vote?

un vote to force russia to sh*t or get off the pot for syria? stop putin from posturing against assad with obama... putin's got his own dictatorship to defend... protesters in the streets...

russia picks a side & china joins & usa does what?

usa owes china & russia big $$$.

ej says usa sovereign default (poom) to start with war... gee... hmmmm...

no expert... just sayin....

NATO will only pick a fight with 3rd world country armies (e.g. Iraq, Libya). China and/or Russia - I don't think so.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

With the relative difference in military power where Turkey possesses FAR superior numerical and qualitative superiority over Syria, I would think a highly centralized command driven Syrian state would be insane to seek further heightened tensions between Syria and Turkey unless it was an accident or there was a half decent reason to engage.

A couple things:

1.) Syrian Air Defense could have violated their normal rules of engagement by over aggressive engagement of the Turkish F4

a.)Accidentally, why risk angering a bordering nation that is far superior militarily and acting as a Syrian refugee blowoff valve? Occasional/minimal airspace violations in light of the circumstances would be understandable...especially for a nation involuntarily harboring so many Syrian refugees.

b.)Intentionally, since Turkey is acting as a staging ground for MIT/MB/CIA/??? cross border intelligence and paramilitary FID/UW operations to shape regime change in Syria.

it sounds like the F4 was engaged well off the coast but possibly just inside Syria's 12 mile limit...which would likely mean Surface to Air Missile(SAM) rather than shorter ranged air defense artillery(AAA).

Turkey operates a couple version of the F4...both upgraded F4 combat aircraft as well as RF4 dedicated reconnaissance aircraft.

While the F4 is an older airframe, if well flown by a capable aircrew(Turkish aircrew train to a fairly high NATO standard of training) and using appropriate tactics, would be a tough nut for air defense to crack if the F4/RF4 was conducting a presence patrol or a more aggressive recce flight cutting Syrian airspace corners.

Turkish Air Force pilots and aircraft would also be relatively capable of mitigating the threat posed by most Syrian earlier generation SAMs from it's NATO relationship as well as it's prior relationship with Israel.

More recently introduced and highly mobile SAM systems in Syria's possession include SA10,SA11,SA15,and SA22.

A well flown F4/RF4 could still operate on the fuzzy edges of these more modern systems, but maybe the aircrew pushed there luck too far......or maybe due to the clandestine James Bond stuff being staged out of Turkey into Syria might have resulted in an INTENTIONAL ambush by Syrian Air Defense via it's late model SAM systems clandestinely moved to cover previous flight paths of Turkish aircraft.

Since Syria seems to be quite happy to announce the shoot down to the world.......I would lean towards this engagement being a message from the Syrian government to Turkey regarding it's direct involvement in Syrian domestic affairs and/or allowing 3rd party nations to conduct operations against Syria via Turkey....with the possibility that the violation of Syrian air space could possibly have been negligible.

Back in 2001 Israel and Syria engaged in a little known dogfight.....very little came out from either israel or Syria...this has quickly resulted in a release from Syria....

If I was Assad, and just to my north Turkey/US/whoever are plotting my demise via tangible support for the rebellion as well as aggressively recruiting border crossers for intelligence operations..I'd consider sending a message as well.

Just speculation on my part.

In any case, it would be interesting to read the After Action Report(AAR) on this engagement, an understanding of the activity of Syria's late model SAM systems, as well as Turkey/US/NATO intelligence on Syria's late model SAMs.

[Mega]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

This is not about Syria or Iran.........its about the West, they broke & about to lose control of the World..........think about it...the White man has been running things for 200-300 years & Whitey got use to it. Just imagine the SHIT when "They" have to turn to their peoples & say NO to all the Welfare, they have to say NO to the armed forces, they say NO to the bankers.......

[BadJuju]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

..the White man has been running things for 200-300 years & Whitey got use to it.

Mega, you are the color of the community!

[Mega]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

Turkey Now admits it fly well into Syria........

[ASH]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

He-said/she-said?

Turkey will consult with NATO on response -- Claims plane was over international waters

BEIRUT — Turkey said Sunday that it will consult its NATO allies next week over how to respond to the shooting down by Syria of a Turkish plane after inquiries showed that the plane was over international waters when the incident occurred.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu disputed Syria’s version of the event, telling state broadcaster TRT that the plane bore clear Turkish markings and was not in Syrian airspace when it was shot down without warning by Syria on Friday.

In Brussels, a NATO spokeswoman said NATO will meet on Tuesday after Turkey invoked article 4 of the NATO charter, which gives any member state the right to “request consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened,” Turkish media reported.

According to Syria’s account of the incident, the plane was flying at high speed and low altitude toward Syria and was over Syrian territorial waters when it was brought down by anti-aircraft artillery.

Davutoglu said the plane had briefly strayed into Syrian airspace, but left when warned by Turkey, suggesting it was headed away from the coast at the time. He added that the plane was not spying on Syria, and had been on a training mission.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

It sounds like Turkey is claiming Syria apologized for the shoot down.

Maybe it was a translation issue but I read some possibly unprepared commentary from the Turkish leadership about how due to the speed fighter planes fly they are hard to control and can't avoid flying into other countries airspace at times........which is simply bizarre, or just a politician caught in the headlights.

[c1ue]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

IMO this is just an accident.

Turkey, unless they're really stupid, will not allow themselves to get used as a catspaw in 'pacifying' Syria. If they do so, they will forever lose any possibility of being a leader in the Muslim world - something which has been a Turkish hope since the when the Ottoman Empire fell.

[ASH]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

It sounds like Turkey is claiming Syria apologized for the shoot down.

Maybe it was a translation issue but I read some possibly unprepared commentary from the Turkish leadership about how due to the speed fighter planes fly they are hard to control and can't avoid flying into other countries airspace at times........which is simply bizarre, or just a politician caught in the headlights.

Seems like there might be some confusion inside Turkey regarding the spin they want to put on it. According to this update, the Turkish Foreign Ministry is framing this in aggressive terms:

“It was an act of war,” said Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal. “They shot down a plane over international waters and it is unacceptable.” Turkey has sent a diplomatic note to Syria reminding Damascus that under international law Turkey “reserves the right to respond,” he said.

I still don't think anyone has the appetite to do more that send money and small arms to the rebels, but the fact that Turkey brought NATO into it -- and some Turkish officials are framing this in warlike terms -- has given me some pause. It could be that different factions within the Turkish government have different ideas about policy toward Syria, and aren't being very disciplined in communications to the world press. Also, I think that Turkey/Saudi Arabia want an American-led intervention more than do the Americans (the main angle being regional competition with Iran).

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Syria shoots down Turkish F-4 over territorial waters

Seems like there might be some confusion inside Turkey regarding the spin they want to put on it. According to this update, the Turkish Foreign Ministry is framing this in aggressive terms:

“It was an act of war,” said Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal. “They shot down a plane over international waters and it is unacceptable.” Turkey has sent a diplomatic note to Syria reminding Damascus that under international law Turkey “reserves the right to respond,” he said.

I still don't think anyone has the appetite to do more that send money and small arms to the rebels, but the fact that Turkey brought NATO into it -- and some Turkish officials are framing this in warlike terms -- has given me some pause. It could be that different factions within the Turkish government have different ideas about policy toward Syria, and aren't being very disciplined in communications to the world press. Also, I think that Turkey/Saudi Arabia want an American-led intervention more than do the Americans (the main angle being regional competition with Iran).

I can't comment or opine on Turkey's PR skills in a crisis like this, BUT it's worth noting the somewhat considerable changes in Turkey in recent years.

Turkey USED to have a military with quite considerable political power, but this has recently been reduced as best we can tell:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%22Sledgehammer%22_plot

Maybe the difference in tone coming from Turkey could represent the split between a government keen to keep military out of politics and hardliners keen to see the Turkish military's political power increased again?

Because this event could be of value to some on a few different levels....within Syria, within Turkey, between Syria/Turkey, and "other".

The only thing I've ever read along the lines of this from Turkey has been Turkish PR before/during/after lashing out at the Kurds within it's territory or in Northern Iraq.

The next closest thing would be the mock(but occasionally real) air to air intercepts and dogfights between Greece and Turkey that have reduced in frequency and severity over the years.

The last aircraft loss was 6 years ago when a Greek and Turkish fighter collided.

Before that would be another 10+ years back for an aircraft loss.

I would think it crazy for Turkey to get TOO worked up over it, beyond just the possible domestic political advantage opportunity.

The Turkish economy seems to have weather the GFC better than most.....why rock the boat?

Even just the thought of Turkey putting boots on the ground in Syria would probably have grave economic consequences for Turkey in light of how fragile the global economic climate is.

I'm still leaning towards it being a message from Syria to Turkey regarding cross border operations staged from Turkey operating against the Syrian regime.

I would think Syria would have far bigger diplomatic issues to juggle than an engagement against a far more military/economically/politically powerful bordering nation.

If it was an RF4 that sliced overland across Syrian air space and got nailed well within Syrian territory but bailed out over water then Turkey took too much of a gamble for a photo/electronic recce and deserves the flak.

If it was an F4 flying/orbiting just around or just inside Syria air space and got nailed without warning then it takes on another dimension.

But it's all speculation unless you have:

Turkish Air Force F4 flight plan
Syrian Air Defense Rules of Engagement
Coms intercepts from Syrian Air Defense
Location of F4 and Syrian Air defense unit that engaged it at time of engagement.
An understanding of foreign military air traffic orbiting Syrian air space in the lead up to the engagement.

Either party or both parties could be at fault.