silver train leaving the station?

[Adeptus]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

I bought my last large physical batch at $30 and will hold for quite a while until several fundamentals hint at seriously reversing, this could be 1,2 or 5 years, and/or until a housing crash in Canada occurs and I can get real estate at 30-50% discount (I know, I'm not holding my breath, I could be waiting a while, but am confident it will happen).

Given I've been buying physical silver since late 2008 starting at ~$11, I've reached my physical limit for now. That said, I will soon be entering the ultra risky world of miners but will be aggressive in extracting profits quickly until I recover 100% of my investment in that area, then I'll let the remainder ride for a while.

If I were just getting started, I strongly suggest you get physical first, then worry about stocks, ETFs, miners later. The thing about buying physical is that it forces instant discipline - you can't left click on the mouse and sell it as a result of a temporary emotional state. Silver can correct aggressively at times (20-30%+), so yeah you can wait for a signifcant dip (i.e. if US shutdown doesn't occur later today - I have no idea whether it will or not), but if you are an amateur, this is not as easy as it sounds. To greatly improve your chances of a good timely entry into Silver/Gold I strongly suggest reviewing the following sites for a few days:

BOOKMARK THESE...
1. Along the WatchTower (Turd Furgeson) Silver Technical Analysis (TA) Blog: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/ (10 years experience in comodities)
2. Ira Epsteins twice daily metal's TA report: http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures (30+ years trading comodities)
3. Trader Dan's Blog: http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/ (20+ years trading comodities)
4. Harvey Organ's Blog: http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ (30 years wallstreet experience, including 13 years PM specific research & investing)


I also recommend:
1. Keeping an eye on this awesome free GoogleDocs spreadsheet (note multiple tabs):
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...F&hl=en#gid=17
2. Awesome free access to near real time silver/gold charts (also useful to learn basic TA skills):
http://netdania.com/Products/live-st...anceChart.aspx
3. Read Kitco PM news:
http://www.kitco.com/

Good luck everyone! :-)

Disclaimer....I'm currently:
43% - Gold
30% - Silver
21% - Cash or equivalents
5% - Stocks

[chedir007]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Would recommend also these free sites:

1) King World News
2) Jesse's Cafe Americain
3) Silvergoldsilver

[Adeptus]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

The SilverGoldSilver blog can get a bit childish at times, and the blog author strikes me as rather imature (swearing, big ego, biased, etc) and seems to buy into every silver conspiracy theory out there, so I don't trust his info as much; however, I have to give him credit for the first 3 XtraNormal cartoons (the 4th one IMO went off the rails), and also I have to give him credit for being quick to the punch to post *potentially* impactful silver related news before most other blogs; so I do visit it a few times a week, but for a beginner, it may be more difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff on that site.

Jesse's Cafe was recently rated as the #4 economic blog in the world for whatever that's worth. I should have added him to the list. Good TA going on there. In short, my approach to timing entries has been to consider the views from all these guys, and when they are mostly in agreement, I take the plunge.

King World News can be very educational, as their daily podcasts tend to include a lot of the PM big shots and many credible guests; however, while most of the guests are worth listening to, they do vary in quality, so listener beware. I think Erik does his site a disfavour by having people like Gerald Celente on there. To me that guy is half psychologically koo-koo and ultra depressing, and has been predicting the end of the world (or thereabouts) for years. He may be right eventually, but I can no longer stand to hear that guy speak. I should also mention that at times I find Erik trying to lead an interview down a certain path with carefully worded biased questions, which takes away from a more open interview, but overall I do recommend his site as most of the speakers are good and the info educational.

[jpetr48]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Those sites definitely keep you in the game. The caution for the newbie is try not to get addicted to listening to other people's opinions. King World News can be too much of a cheerleader. Example- end of 2010 their key guests that they interview were loading up on PMs. Anyone that follows seasonality and charting knew better- 3 weeks later perfect buying opportunity. David Morgan (I think it was him) said end of 2010 that silver will slow down this year because of significant run-up. Learning a little about tech charting and following intermarket relationships is a good place to start - unless you started to invest in PMs in 2008 and bought silver at $11.

BTW- Did I read right Adeptus -70% PMs in your portfolio. What were the factors promoting this allocation %?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

BTW- Did I read right Adeptus -70% PMs in your portfolio. What were the factors promoting this allocation %?

He must have listed to jtabeb My own allocation is 40%gold, 11% silver, 3% miners,2% oil,3% other commodities, 41% cash.

[Adeptus]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

King World News can be too much of a cheerleader.

I agree! That's actually what I mean to say when I said Erik's questions 'lead an interview down a certain path', except you got right to the point. For instance he went on and on about 100:1 CFTC paper to bullion ratio which some suggest was taken out of context and thus debunked (see vid link below "bears go full retard"), and then again about 100 oz bars running out (they haven't, only temporarily at some locations). So again, this is why it is important to hear what several people/sites have to say. I find the Financial Sense Newshour guys a little more balanced.


VIDEO - CLICK LINK HERE: http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/1134...go-full-retard

Did I read right Adeptus -70% PMs in your portfolio. What were the factors promoting this allocation %?

That was definitely not all at once and certainly not all at $11/oz (I wish!!), but it was a significant portion at the time none the less - but nothing to brag about compared to some of the old timer itulipers on here who got in at $6 silver and $275 gold. I work a full time job, and then some (overtime galore - not fun!), so I don't have tonnes of time to do research; besides, I've kind of lost faith in the stock market as a whole with all the manipulations going on (zero hedge definitely convinced me on that front!). This year, I've actually already taken 4 weeks of holidays to spend 12 hours a day reading up on the PM market (hence all the links above). Also being Canadian, I sure as heck wasn't going to invest in US dollar equities or US treasuries (sorry EJ) with the Fed continuously debasing the US dollar. The Canadian dollar has risen some 30-40% against USD in the past 3 years, so I'm very glad I didn't do that. I also have no faith in European market due to low GDPs and recently high risk, and I totally missed out the BRIC party before that. I don't believe in investing the Canadian insane real estate market since 2005, especially on the West Coast ... so what's a guy to do? I did manage to escape the 2008 crash with only 4-5% loss (in great part thanks to itulip!), but then missed the Mar 2009 recovery big time (shoulda listened to Lukester here at itulip and Marc Faber). While I have a long background in IT, I freggin' hate Apple products so from a moral standpoint I wasn't going to invest in that (my loss obviously), and I totally missed out on NetFlix, but did score 30% on Visa IPO . So as you can see, I'm hardly an example to follow in general; I'm a hit and miss. That said, as per above, I have recently spent a hella lot of time reading up on PM market, so hence my comments now and then and where I've put my money. I know you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, but (like EJ) I seriously don't see a whole lot of safety in any stock markets, unless it is for a relatively short term trade. I also missed out on Oil recently. $84/barrel just sounded too high, and I was waiting for a larger market correction -didn't see Fed exporting inflation to cause middle east revolutions. Oh well. I did listen to Marc Faber and Jim Rogers suggest people invest heavily into aggricultural stocks, so I could have done that for sure as I believed them, but morally I couldn't do it. The profits I could have made, would have translated to a few dozen or a few hundred people in some 3rd world country having to pay higher prices because of my greedy speculation. I've limited knowledge in bonds, and their yields seem to barely keep up with inflation, and I'm not about to do leveraged trades. I've only started learning about options trading but not confident yet. So to sumarize, I'm mostly into PMs due to process of elimination, besides, as per SilverGoldSilver's #5 vid (See below), there's a looong list of reasons why PMs should continue to be a good long term investment (although, if Fed doesn't do QE3, all bets are off).

[jpetr48]

Re: Breaking through $40 tonight

Thank you for your response Adeptus. Your research shows. I am approaching this from what is vision for my portfolio. Simply high alpha low correlation to spy.
Attached is a spreadsheet I ran on different asset classes. it is more of a long term view on what are high performing alpha low correlation asset classes. No surprises but the magnitude in alpha difference does tell a story. Since this is long term, the dollar is ranked as one of top and slv is near bottom. I expect this will adjust if I ran a shorter time frame.

Open to suggestions on an asset/instrument "screener" that includes alpha and Rsquared(correlation).

BTW- The original intent of doing spreadsheet this was to give some perspective on intermarket relationships. I am trying to develop something of a cause-effect simple one page map of various asset classes like bonds commodities currencies etc

[Master Shake]

Re: Silver Train...

Can I do an end run around "cash for gold". They pay out terribly. Post to craig's list and promise to beat cash for gold
by 30%?
.

I've posted ads on craigslist to buy gold and silver coins and response has been low. I've also bought from listings there, most recently picking up a 1903 German 10 mark gold coin for under spot. I always meet the seller at a public location - Starbucks, Mickey D's, public library, etc.

Check out Auction Zip for local auctions of coins in your area.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver Train...

Silver train leaving the station? check

Silver holders pissing their pants? check

(yes it's a joke ... I knew what I was getting into with my Silver position, greater than 50% allocation - whenever I write about Silver I always prefix a standard disclamer, "if you're into high risk and volatility ... (and occasionally pissing your pants) ... " )

I don't check the price sometimes for a week, and sleep OK, even on the worst downdrafts, so I must be OK with it.

[Kadriana]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Well, I am starting to see a dramatic difference in my area on how people look at silver and gold. A couple months ago, there was no issue in getting junk silver for below spot. Now, junk silver is marked up by 10-20% in a lot of areas. There is no longer talk that silver is at it's highs or in for a major correction. People are starting to assume it's going to be higher this week than last week.

[aaron]

Re: Silver Train...

I wish I bought more. I had a thread here from a year and half ago where I was deciding whether to buy silver at $12 . Silly in retrospect.

[DSpencer]

Re: Silver Train...

I wish I bought more. I had a thread here from a year and half ago where I was deciding whether to buy silver at $12 . Silly in retrospect.

Join the club, although I didn't have the resources to buy much at 12. Got in a bit later, but still wish I had more.

But most things look silly in retrospect. You could probably find something that has outperformed silver using today's available data (although nothing comes right to mind...). The real question now is: Will you feel the same way later about silver at ~$40?

[cjppjc]

Re: Silver Train...

Join the club, although I didn't have the resources to buy much at 12. Got in a bit later, but still wish I had more.

But most things look silly in retrospect. You could probably find something that has outperformed silver using today's available data (although nothing comes right to mind...). The real question now is: Will you feel the same way later about silver at ~$40?

I had this exact conversation with a friend last night. I quoted him "I'm not buying here at $25." "I'm not buying here at $35." You get the idea. To be fair he bought lower, he just never added to his position. He is waiting for the big selloff. Maybe it comes at 53 and takes it down to 38. Who knows.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Well, I am starting to see a dramatic difference in my area on how people look at silver and gold. A couple months ago, there was no issue in getting junk silver for below spot. Now, junk silver is marked up by 10-20% in a lot of areas. There is no longer talk that silver is at it's highs or in for a major correction. People are starting to assume it's going to be higher this week than last week.

prolly means the 'smart' money is about to unload?
(mode=cynical; power-level=FULL)

what does mr adeptus think these daze?
and wheres Fondo?

eye note an uptick here:

Today 5d 1m 3m 1y 5y 10y
	52wk high:	23.46
	52wk low:	14.03
	EPS:	N/A
	PE:	N/A
	Dividend:	0.01
	Yield:	0.042955
	Market Cap:	5.92 b
	Volume:	2.48 m

[ocelotl]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

What exactly do you mean by"a bull shaking". Are you suggesting that the trend is still bullish, but that some bulls are being shaken out; or are you suggesting that the bull trend is over and about to be shaken downward?

From a supply/demand perspective, it sure looks to me that demand is far outstripping supply. In ~2.5 years, some 50% of the physical registered silver at the COMEX has been delivered upon.




Looking through the CTFC's COT reports and SLV records, we can gather the following additional data. We see some deterioration in SLV inventory but not substancial and we see a fairly flat COMEX customer inventory which if I understand correctly can be leased out at some low interest rate. But again, just look at the depletion of the "Registered" supply!

Date	SLV Ounces	Registered (COMEX)	Eligible (Customer)	Total COMEX Silver
12/9/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	60,312,806	108,066,244
12/10/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	59,304,144	107,057,582
12/13/2010	350,159,419	47,753,438	58,058,490	105,811,928
12/14/2010	352,505,135	47,753,438	58,093,864	105,847,302
12/15/2010	352,505,135	47,748,539	57,798,005	105,546,544
12/16/2010	352,505,135	46,399,818	57,364,687	103,764,505
12/17/2010	352,505,135	46,364,937	58,868,981	105,233,918
12/20/2010	350,550,455	46,375,503	58,486,340	104,861,843
12/21/2010	350,550,455	46,375,503	58,799,170	105,174,673
12/22/2010	350,550,455	46,400,515	58,708,457	105,108,972
12/23/2010	350,550,455	46,390,545	58,718,427	105,108,972
12/27/2010	350,550,455	46,390,545	58,718,427	105,108,972
12/28/2010	350,550,455	46,222,826	58,262,845	104,485,671
12/29/2010	350,550,455	45,731,192	58,140,440	103,871,632
12/30/2010	350,550,455	45,736,399	58,970,760	104,707,159
12/31/2010	351,136,751	45,736,399	59,112,829	104,849,228
1/3/2011	351,136,751	45,716,392	58,831,239	104,547,631
1/4/2011	351,136,751	45,716,392	59,867,680	105,584,072
1/5/2011	350,995,721	45,660,850	60,106,574	105,767,424
1/6/2011	350,214,049	45,660,830	60,659,415	106,320,245
1/7/2011	348,504,166	44,890,889	59,651,052	104,541,941
1/10/2011	346,794,311	44,890,889	59,350,766	104,241,655
1/11/2011	344,840,267	44,890,889	59,348,752	104,239,641
1/12/2011	344,840,267	44,885,726	59,243,292	104,129,018
1/13/2011	344,840,267	45,052,028	59,607,405	104,659,433
1/14/2011	344,840,267	45,226,120	59,183,073	104,409,193
1/18/2011	340,346,233	44,839,053	59,523,496	104,362,549
1/19/2011	340,004,313	44,839,053	59,575,472	104,414,525
1/20/2011	338,441,267	44,839,053	59,520,341	104,359,394
1/21/2011	334,191,830	44,439,610	59,715,405	104,155,015
1/24/2011	336,878,179	44,439,610	60,668,205	105,107,815
1/25/2011	335,901,359	44,344,843	60,630,928	104,975,771
1/26/2011	335,901,359	44,243,741	60,597,179	104,840,920
1/27/2011	335,217,607	43,962,813	60,721,358	104,684,171
1/28/2011	335,217,607	43,493,063	61,192,116	104,685,179
1/31/2011	335,217,607	43,512,709	61,067,764	104,580,473
2/1/2011	334,533,895	43,467,229	59,949,225	103,416,454
2/2/2011	334,387,048	43,467,229	60,126,859	103,594,088
2/3/2011	333,410,344	43,402,181	60,126,859	103,529,040
2/4/2011	333,410,344	43,402,181	59,109,001	102,511,182
2/7/2011	333,410,344	43,189,200	60,116,370	103,305,570
2/8/2011	333,410,344	42,345,622	60,707,003	103,052,625
2/9/2011	333,410,344	42,174,112	61,056,350	103,230,462
2/10/2011	333,996,310	42,168,881	60,677,891	102,846,772
2/11/2011	333,996,310	41,924,524	60,499,172	102,423,696
2/14/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,838,531	102,763,055
2/15/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,913,050	102,837,574
2/16/2011	334,728,758	41,924,524	60,610,739	102,535,263
2/17/2011	335,607,641	41,914,469	60,638,158	102,552,627
2/18/2011	335,607,641	41,914,469	60,459,810	102,374,279
2/22/2011	332,531,620	41,914,469	60,443,440	102,357,909
2/23/2011	340,001,630	41,914,469	60,450,699	102,365,168
2/24/2011	342,931,016	41,909,645	60,420,868	102,330,513
2/25/2011	342,931,016	43,169,476	59,759,523	102,928,999

Here's a more historic chart of the inventories of silver in Millions of Ounces from 1950 to 1999. See the pattern from 1990 to 1999 ? That is a MASSIVE deterioration in supply!



Here's the continuation of that chart from 1999 to ~2010. We learn from this chart that inventories have recovered "a bit" from 2000 to 2008, but have since begun to deminish again, and certainly have no way climbed back up to early 90's levels:



So long as the supply at the COMEX continues to be deminished, I'm LONG silver!

Sorry for not explaining myself. I was trying to say that we were still in the bullish trend and that some of the weakest bulls could be shaken out. Even when since the trend has recovered and there are people out there talking about it as getting parabolic, we still have some room to go before getting out of silver. As I posted somewhere else, we have to pay some attention to be sure of getting out at an appropriate moment, so that we don't have to worry about selling more than a kilo at a time or so... Well, that was my approach when buying, and I'm still Long silver.