Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance for there to ever be a woman president here. This is why:




For some reason, a bad and unflattering photo is much more forgivable when it's of a man.


I'm not just assuming that President Obama has changed anything--he has. He's changed the game. There's still an African American on the ballot for President. Barring a crisis situation, the economy's "new normal" will have sunk in by election day and although it will be a negative influence on President Obama's reelection bid, I don't think it can overcome the nearly 12% voter turnout boost that he's proven capable of. All Republicans start way in the distance so I believe it will take more than just a stagnant economy to push a Republican into office.

[Iron Zeppelin]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Let's kick it off, 15 months out. This is not a thread for ideological debates. Please keep your partisan hackery to yourself. From time to time I will update with odds, polls etc.

If I had to guess today, I'd say that Rick Perry is going to be the GOP nominee. The big money will split between him and Romney and the Heartland base of voters will give it to Perry, not Bachmann. He's a Governor with a history that Bachmann can't touch as a mere Representative. Obama coming out of the Senate was not the start of a new trend. The big money is not backing Bachmann, she's getting the small money checks from the Heartland.

Great idea babbittd ! I bought 50 shares of Rick Perry/republican primary on Intrade, let's see how that turns out. So far polls are still pretty optimistic.
I don't know who will win the general election but I'll check 538 are the start of 2012. They were spot on in 2008 and provided us with an insane amount of useful data & analysis.

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm too dense, and so is google, what are you talking about shiny?

In response to Metalman's comment about going full-on anarchist, I basically said I was a Browncoat and made a reference to Malcolm Reynolds and Zoe Washburn from Firefly.

Firefly was a brilliant but short-lived TV show that aired in 2002. Originally inspired by the book, "The Killer Angels", it was about the aftermath of a civil war as seen from the side of the losers. The rebels who lost were called Browncoats. Mal and Zoe have become popular Libertarian icons; in the 2008 election you could get T-shirts and bumper stickers for Reynolds-Washburn for President.

Firefly was about a family's struggle to live freely while under the thumb of an increasingly meddlesome, impersonal, bureaucratic government. Sound familiar?

In an ironic case of life-imitating-art-imitating-life, Firefly, which many people consider to be one of the finest TV shows ever made, was cancelled by meddlesome, impersonal, bureaucratic network executives after airing only 11 of the 14 episodes filmed. Three years later, a follow-up movie called Serenity was released that tied up the loose ends left in Firefly.

In the nine years since it aired, the love for Firefly, and the number of Browncoats, just keeps growing. The loosly organized Browncoat community does a lot of good, putting on annual screenings of Serenity in cities around the world to raise money for various charities.

If you haven't seen Firefly and Serenity you're missing a real treat!

http://www.amazon.com/Firefly-Comple...4855581&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.com/Serenity-Colle...855989&sr=1-18

And now back to our regularly scheduled thread...

[charliebrown]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm too dense, and so is google, what are you talking about shiny?

[reallife]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

My prediction: Bachmann flames out early. Palin never enters the race. Perry and Romney split the primaries by pandering to the tea partiers and the religious right, leaving the moderate center to Obama. Romney wins the convention after a vicious floor fight when the tea partiers walk out. Obama wipes the floor with Romney in the general election.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Its the economy, stupid.

Obama has failed totally by anyone's measure in terms of ideological performance.

To say that he's "game changing" assumes he has actually changed something besides being the first Black president.

And while that won't change, what has he done for anyone lately? What happens when he goes up against the potential first woman president?

If all he has is tugging racial guilt heart strings, that's worthless the 2nd time around. This time around there are real economic issues - jobs, wage growth, inflation.

National Security is all fine and good, but the reality is that there has not been any type of successful terrorist activity in the United States for going on 10 years. That dead horse is thoroughly beaten.

I predict all the Republicans will look terrible, but ultimately it won't matter.

The voters will by and large be pissed off because they don't have jobs and aren't making a good living, and will take it out on whoever the incumbent is - just like they did with Congress last year.

The Republican Presidential candidate - assuming he has the brains of a rutabaga - will blame Congress (not the Democratic Congress, but Congress) for screwing it up, and will say he can do better if given a chance.

That's all the message necessary when times are bad.

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

It's too early to call the election outright, but I don't think it's going to take to much more negative news for Obama to lose.

I disagree completely with that. I believe Obama can withstand any amount of bad news short of 2008-level or worse "crisis" levels. Any of the so-called "likely" Republican nominees can't touch him on national security especially with the expected Fall 2012 release of a movie based on the UBL raid (says the rumor mill). This fact negates one of the traditional Republican cards used to bring in swing voters.

Don't underestimate Obama's ability to bring people to the polls. It is likely to be less than last time, but the Republicans don't have Karl Rove to preach from the pulpit to boost their base support. There is no contest between Obama and a generic Republican candidate come election day, despite what current polls may suggest.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Several us seem to be in agreement.....which worries me.
We're already seeing economic downturn in Q1 and Q2.
Stock market volatility and inflation in the same environment.
Obama's "approval" numbers are quickly fading.
It's too early to call the election outright, but I don't think it's going to take to much more negative news for Obama to lose.

[charliebrown]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

ok here it is.

market tanks / employment tanks --> any repub wins , oman loses.
...paul victory --> markets tank deflationary depression. WWIII as small agressors fill vacuum.
...other republican wins --> never ending proxy wars in the mid east and other flash points.
......economy gets a 3 year breather before high inflation ignites.

markets stable / employment stable --> 60/40 oman wins.
...inflationary depression begins soon.

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

With an economy in this big a mess, for Obama to even be in the game, says volumes about how bad the Republican field is. If Bachmann can win a primary and a couple caucuses, she could take it to the convention, where the big players will be behind Romney. Romney and Perry want this bad and they'll kick each other hard during the whole process. Both will come out of it very bloodied.

I don't think your first statement is necessarily true. I believe that Obama is still a game-changing politician, though probably less effective this time than his first cakewalk into the Presidency. How much blame can be stuck squarely on "the man" for keeping President Obama down (sic)? The obfuscation that Republicans attempted throughout his presidency may come back to bite them in the form of reduced apathy for Obama supporters, and I think it will especially because of the turnout boost that President Obama commands.

The Republican field is full of fairly "normal" candidates (except Palin, who flaggered from her initial potential and could be considered a "flop" now), but this is not a "normal" presidential election if such a thing can be defined.

If you consider the election of 2000 to be a baseline year, then President Bush's reelection bid in 2004 could be considered a tremendous success because voter turnout overall increased 4 points and most of that went to Bush who lost the popular vote in 2000. That was Karl Rove's doing by focusing on boosting turnout from the church, my understanding suggests. Then if you compare 2008 to 2000, the turnout boost commanded by Obama's candidacy is substantially greater at about 7.2 points higher turnout (than 2000, not 2004). He really was really popular and a seminal figure in American politics. There was almost no chance of a Republican victory in 2008 in the wake of Bush, but that was assured by the legion of followers created by Obama.

While you can say that many Obama supporters have been disaffected, can you claim that even the majority of them have been so disaffected as to not only not vote for Obama, but to actively vote for the Republican nominee? Baring the onset of a double-dip, as c1ue alludes to, I don't think so.

My summary is this: Obama's presence will boost voter turnout substantially over a "normal" election with fairly "standard" or at least non-game-changing candidates such as 2000, 1996, 1988, etc. There is no way he can lose to a "standard" or a "flop" GOP nominee unless events dictate otherwise (just as the first financial collapse ensured a Democrat's victory). As Chomsky alludes to, he can only lose to a transformative candidate, which may or may not include Ron Paul (who himself may turn out to be a flop candidate like Goldwater). Another alternative is that someone like Kucinich or Nader or even Paul (but none of them specifically, since it hasn't happened already with them) becomes the transformative third-party candidate that does to Obama what Perot is blamed for doing to Bush Sr.

So wait and see. If double-dip recession, then Obama loses (except maybe to Palin). If a transformative candidate emerges, then Obama loses. Otherwise, he wins. Those are my predictions.

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm going fullon anarchist.

janusz palikot for president!

support the guns & dildos party!

My coat is brown. Reynolds and Washburn for 2012.

(C'mon, some of you will get it!)

[metalman]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm going fullon anarchist.

janusz palikot for president!



support the guns & dildos party!

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Perry leading Romney in Iowa and Ohio, Romney ahead in Florida.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Romney leading Michigan polls by a large margin....
Obama takes another hit in the Gallup job approval. Down to 38% approve....

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

The Establishment or whatever they are called are pushing Huntsman hard....He is polling terribly, worse than Herman Cain, yet CNN, MSNBC and other media outlets showering him with attention this week.