Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Rollins confirming what we've known for a couple of weeks now. Bachman put everything into Iowa and as soon as Perry announced one day later, he blew her away in the polls.

It's shaking out exactly how I said in post one. GOP donors now have to decide who to back between Romney and Perry and some will spread their money on both in an act of CYA. The polls tell us it's Perry's nomination to lose and the first Perry Romney debate takes place tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if Bachmann serves as the attack dog for one or the other.

[jk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

So much for Bachmann being a credible candidate:

http://news.yahoo.com/bachmann-campa...GVzdAM-;_ylv=3



Republicans - shift left in progress (towards the center).

bachmann was always running for VICE-president.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

So much for Bachmann being a credible candidate:

http://news.yahoo.com/bachmann-campa...GVzdAM-;_ylv=3

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann's campaign manager, Ed Rollins, and his deputy are leaving their roles, Bachmann's campaign said on Monday, adding Rollins would remain in a less physically demanding senior advisory position.

"In less than 50 days and with fewer resources than other campaigns, Ed was the architect that led our campaign to a historic victory in Iowa," Bachmann said in a statement, referring to that state's Republican straw poll.

"I am grateful for his guidance and leadership, and fortunate to retain his valuable advice even though his health no longer permits him to oversee the day-to-day operations of the campaign."

Bachmann, a representative from Minnesota, moved into the top tier of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination last month with her win in the Iowa straw poll, an early test of strength in the 2012 race.

"I have great affection for her. I'll do anything I can to help her," Rollins, 68, a veteran of many political campaigns told CNN. "I just don't have the endurance to do 14-hour days, seven days a week anymore."

As part of a "restructuring strategy," current campaign strategist Keith Nahigian will assume the role of interim campaign manager, Bachmann said in her statement.

Bachmann's views, heated rhetoric and fiery attacks on President Barack Obama have won her fans among conservative activists and donors. She was one of the first elected officials to court the Tea Party, a loosely organized conservative activist movement.

Rollins conceded that Texas Governor Rick Perry's entry into the Republican race slowed Bachmann's momentum. Perry, who is also popular with social and religious conservatives, rose swiftly to the top of opinion polls among Republicans since entering the race last month.

"Legitimately, it's a (Mitt) Romney-Perry race," Rollins told CNN. I think she's (Bachmann) the third candidate at this point in time, which is way different and better than we thought when we started this thing and she's very much in this thing."

DEPUTY CAMPAIGN MANAGER STEPS DOWN

Deputy campaign manager David Polyansky was also stepping down, said Bachmann's Iowa campaign chairman, Kent Sorenson.

Sorenson said Polyansky had signed on to the campaign to help with the straw poll effort in Iowa.

"That is a major shake-up," said Craig Robinson, Iowa Republican website founder and editor. "It's her top two guys on her national campaign."

Asked if Polyansky's departure involved strategic differences with the candidate, Rollins told CNN, "There's no strategic differences in the sense of what we should be doing or saying -- it's just a question of how you use your time, how you use your resources."

Republicans - shift left in progress (towards the center).

[astonas]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

obama's problem with his base will not be that they might change parties; it will be whether they are motivated enough [by fear of the republican candidate] to go to the polls in order to hold their noses and pull the democratic lever. i think turnout will be low, but i'm only guessing.

I completely agree. And the Republican party does often vote for "electable" candidates over the more ideological ones, so your conclusion is sensible. Obama's best chance is if the Tea Party tail continues to wag the Republican dog, and the more extreme candidates come to the fore. Given the way political money flows behind the scenes, however, I'm not sure that's very likely. I'm actually wondering if Perry was encouraged to run by party leaders to split the far right and weaken Bachman's claim, since she might not have been compliant enough for the party's machine. But then, I'm a cynic when it comes to politics.

[jk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

It is the classic strategy. But the republicans are being forced to make pre-primary statements that are so strong it will be hard to distance themselves from them when it gets time for the general. Obama's big advantage is that he has no primary, and is already working to appeal to the middle. The far left is dismayed, of course, but I hardly think they will switch parties. And in terms of rallying the base to get turnout up, it will be much easier to do when there is the specter of an extremely conservative challenger around.

This is why Obama loses to a "generic" challenger. Any real challenger, however, will have specific problems that will re-energize the left. The fact that everyone in the current field has stated that they would not have supported the debt-ceiling "compromise" because it did not go far enough is just one example of how they are managing to distance themselves from moderates who actually care less about the size of government than the fact that it should function.

obama's problem with his base will not be that they might change parties; it will be whether they are motivated enough [by fear of the republican candidate] to go to the polls in order to hold their noses and pull the democratic lever. i think turnout will be low, but i'm only guessing.

[astonas]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I disagree - the classic strategy be it Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama is to start radical in your base then shift center. All the foofaraw you see now is the energizing of the base.

It is the classic strategy. But the republicans are being forced to make pre-primary statements that are so strong it will be hard to distance themselves from them when it gets time for the general. Obama's big advantage is that he has no primary, and is already working to appeal to the middle. The far left is dismayed, of course, but I hardly think they will switch parties. And in terms of rallying the base to get turnout up, it will be much easier to do when there is the specter of an extremely conservative challenger around.

This is why Obama loses to a "generic" challenger. Any real challenger, however, will have specific problems that will re-energize the left. The fact that everyone in the current field has stated that they would not have supported the debt-ceiling "compromise" because it did not go far enough is just one example of how they are managing to distance themselves from moderates who actually care less about the size of government than the fact that it should function.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I believe the Republicans will shift so far to the right during the primary run up that they will not be able to re-claim the middle ground.

I disagree - the classic strategy be it Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama is to start radical in your base then shift center. All the foofaraw you see now is the energizing of the base.

Independent moderates such as myself will be the deciding factor in the 2012 election.

The moderates are always the deciding factors.

Will all the kids that turned out for 2008 turn out again despite a truly dismal economy for the college graduates/under 25 demographic?

Will all the apathetic voters who wanted to vote for the first black president turn out again to vote for the 2nd term of the first black president?

Ghent12 thinks so.

I do not.

IMO If these people turn out, it will be because of a negative reason: to vote against rather than to vote for.

If indeed the Republican party gets all nutty and Tea Party, they will lose - absolutely no disagreement on my part.

The 2012 Presidential election is very much in reach for the Republican party, however, and there is no chance they would cough up the opportunity to get into the White House again.

[jpatter666]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I respectfully disagree. I'm a moderate and I know many other moderates who will vote for Obama's re-election. The election will not be held in a vacuum. Obama will be running against a Republican opponent and voters will have to choose. So far, I don't see a Republican candidate coming out of the GOP convention that I will be able to vote for. I believe the Republicans will shift so far to the right during the primary run up that they will not be able to re-claim the middle ground. Independent moderates such as myself will be the deciding factor in the 2012 election.

Exactly -- we feel the same way. Honestly, we're fed up with both parties.

Just finished reading Ron Paul's End the Fed which was much better and thought out than I thought it would be.

[reallife]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

......

He'll get 'his' demographic - the black vote - plus the ultra left will still hold their noses and vote for him.

The moderates will not.

I respectfully disagree. I'm a moderate and I know many other moderates who will vote for Obama's re-election. The election will not be held in a vacuum. Obama will be running against a Republican opponent and voters will have to choose. So far, I don't see a Republican candidate coming out of the GOP convention that I will be able to vote for. I believe the Republicans will shift so far to the right during the primary run up that they will not be able to re-claim the middle ground. Independent moderates such as myself will be the deciding factor in the 2012 election.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

No, he changed the game when he was running for president last time around. The game was changed because of him, and the new rule set starts off significantly in his favor. He changed the game, and he still benefits from it. McCain, a "standard" or "normal" candidate, received 86% as many votes as Obama. Obama has to lose roughly a total of 15% of his supporters to apathy, or roughly 7.5% to the Republican challenger, for it to even be a dead heat. Where is this 15% (7.5%) going to come from? Surely the performance of the economy will account for part of it, but that entire amount? Even if it does, that puts Obama dead even with the Republican challenger, not behind them.

He changed the game by being the first black president and (retrospectively cynically) exploiting a bland generic 'change' message.

However, as he already had a term as president, the first factor is gone.

The second factor, the 'change' message, has not been backed up in the public perception in any way.

As jk notes, the 15% loss in support will come from a combination of moderates and kids not turning out to vote for him as a candidate which so thoroughly ignored his platform, plus voters of all stripes voting against him due to failed policies - primarily economic.

The official unemployment rate was 6.8% in November 2008, and was 7.8% in January 2009.

Today it is 9.1%

Barring a miracle - and I mean the biblical type - this rate has nowhere to go but up.

Bush Sr. got crushed by an unemployment rate that went from 5.2% in June 1990 to 7.8% in June 1992.

He'll get 'his' demographic - the black vote - plus the ultra left will still hold their noses and vote for him.

The moderates will not.

[jk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

both parties are intellectually and morally bankrupt. but i think even republicans from marginal districts would rather blame obama than try to do anything [which is likely to fail in any event], so nothing will be done legislatively - even if it were possible- to provide marginal improvement prior to the election.

i think obama's tepid response to the crisis [rahm's "never let a good crisis go to waste" to the contrary], and his pro-FIRE policies have made the economic mess his, even though the crisis emerged under w and the roots go back much further.

i think in 2012 democrats are going to stay home in droves. there's been no quicker way to get thrown under the bus than to be an obama supporter. [most recent example- how many environmentalists lost their faith in obama over his recent backing away from tougher ozone standards? it's not that they will therefore join the tea party, but that they are now marginally less likely to turn out for the election at all.] there will be none of the enthusiasm and fervor he engendered in 2008. he might get black turnout almost as high as 2008, but other democrats will stay home.

when hope turns into despair, people don't vote.

so dem turnout and overall turnout will be sig lower. meanwhile angry republicans, social conservatives, the religious right, "birthers," etc will vote.

the democrats will try to scare their former supporters into turning out, but i don't even think the republicans will need to kick it up to the supreme court this time. then the disaster will proceed as seems predestined.

maybe 2016 will be significant, i.e. real change. but it's a long way away, and the world might be a lot darker by then. [pardon me, i'm fairly dour in general. otoh, having a pessimistic outlook is doing me a world of good in my investment choices. so the markets, at least, seem to be telling me i'm getting it right, i.e. the situation is truly awful.]

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Its the economy, stupid.

It's a shame Lady GaGa and The Oprah can't Tweet: "It's the Special Interests, stupid" along with www.opensecrets.org

I'm strongly of the belief that a 3rd party in the US cannot stand toe-to-toe against the two entrenched parties.

To me that would be a bit like the Viet Cong trying to take on NATO and the Warsaw Pact out in the open in a standup fight at the time and place of the entrenched interests choosing.....political suicide or at best Charge of the Light Brigade.

If only the Tea Party could break contact from being perceived as a wing of the GOP and focus on where it could potentially offer an opportunity to regain control of the political process in the US by being a party blind, issue blind filter to separate politicians from special interest $$$ influence and control.

If candidates who accept special interest $$$ are successfully branded as lepers/traitors/political pedophiles does it really matter that much who wins?

Doesn't guarantee a good result, but wouldn't it guarantee better political representation?

I can't follow US professional sports anymore for the same reasons....it's all about the money...and the players/politicians don't give a sh!t about us the fans or us the voters.....whether you are a Cowboys/Redskins fan or a Democrat/Republican voter...they're all laughing to the bank at our expense.

And I bet they are laughing hardest at the fact we get so easily worked up and distracted about rivalries like Cowboys/Eagles and Democrat/Republican. Lost in the melodramatic theatre of sport and politics without noticing the real show behind the curtain.

They and their owners don't care much which team/party "wins" because ultimately they always do, regardless.

So I reckon discussion of US politics is often a poor investment in time unless it's focused on the underlying corruption that permeates the process.

If the foundation of the democratic house is seriously compromised what's the point in expending effort on discussing carpet and paint?

Just my 0.02c

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Frankly this makes no sense whatsoever.

You're trying to say that Obama is changing the game just by being an incumbent?

No, he changed the game when he was running for president last time around. The game was changed because of him, and the new rule set starts off significantly in his favor. He changed the game, and he still benefits from it. McCain, a "standard" or "normal" candidate, received 86% as many votes as Obama. Obama has to lose roughly a total of 15% of his supporters to apathy, or roughly 7.5% to the Republican challenger, for it to even be a dead heat. Where is this 15% (7.5%) going to come from? Surely the performance of the economy will account for part of it, but that entire amount? Even if it does, that puts Obama dead even with the Republican challenger, not behind them.

The Republicans, generally speaking, have no broad-appeal issues that they can monopolize the way Bush did national security and Bible thumping. As I said before, a "crisis" or a transformational Republican/Independent is probably the only way for Obama to lose. That's my guess, anyways.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

He's changed the game. There's still an African American on the ballot for President.

Frankly this makes no sense whatsoever.

You're trying to say that Obama is changing the game just by being an incumbent?

I don't see it. You can only be the first Black president once, and he's already done it.

Now that he can no longer play the race card, I frankly don't see that it makes an appreciable difference.

Being the first black 2 term President is frankly a much weaker message.

All those who voted for him, on the other hand, can clearly feel there's been no change.

The turnout won't be anywhere close to where it was in 2008, because the 'it' factor is no longer there.

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I'm not just assuming that President Obama has changed anything--he has. He's changed the game. There's still an African American on the ballot for President. Barring a crisis situation, the economy's "new normal" will have sunk in by election day and although it will be a negative influence on President Obama's reelection bid, I don't think it can overcome the nearly 12% voter turnout boost that he's proven capable of. All Republicans start way in the distance so I believe it will take more than just a stagnant economy to push a Republican into office.

Obama has alienated and disillusioned a lot of the people who voted for him in 2008, but could still win by drawing in the voters who live on public assistance and entitlements. They won't vote for him because they like him or think he did a good job, but because they perceive him as more likely to keep their cheques coming.