Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Long before there was the Tea Party there was Ron Paul. Ron Paul ran a close second place to Bachmann in the Iowa straw poll. He's an interesting candidate for many reasons.

Out of all the candidates I've seen, he is the most principle-driven. He never wavers from the principle that adherence to the Constitution should be the touchstone for government. This view, long considered unpopular and old-fashioned, is becoming popular again, and that scares Big Government politicians who are beholden to the corporate oligarchy. Ron Paul hasn't changed, the voters have.

Being an ex-Texan I have followed his career for many years. I've watched as the Republican party has tried to ignore and discount him. I've seen him excluded from debates. I watched after he won the CPAC straw poll in February. Instead of having him on the next Fox News Sunday, Fox had Haley Barbour, who came in last. If Romney had won, I don't think they would have had Haley Barbour on instead.

He brings up issues that TPTB do not want discussed. He is the only candidate talking about Freedom like it's the air he breathes, rather than a talking point given to him by his handlers. His positions on the economy, war and Big Government are now resonating with a lot more people than just the ones on the fringe. I think it's because middle-class Americans are sensing that they are being marginalized. They are certainly seeing that the politics and rhetoric they voted for in the past have let them down hugely.

He has great appeal to young voters, which is fascinating given his age (I wish he was 10-20 years younger). Disaffected youth are turning out in droves to support this old man. I even hear Democrats saying they are disgusted with their own party now and would vote for him. Is there any other Republican who could draw in the Democrats like he can without compromising on principles?

The majority of politics is merely theater- politicians rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The Republicans will choose another neocon supported by the hard religious right. If they do that they run the risk of losing in 2012. The Oligarchy owns both parties- it wins as long as both Dems and Republicans don't allow politicians who would really shake thing up.

Ron Paul's ideas are a real threat to the political system, so he'll never get the Republican nomination. If he continues to do well I expect he will suffer a "heart attack" or traffic accident.

An ideal ticket in my mind would be Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.

[Chomsky]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

It seems to me that the time is rather ripe for a single-issue 3rd-party candidate, a sort of Perot 2.0, to run on a plain talk platform of economy/jobs. Obama is on very weak ground and the GOP field isn't credible. (I was not a Perot supporter.)

Not that I think this will happen, but it wouldn't shock me either given the dynamics of the upcoming election.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

If we're going to have a discussion, someone has to disagree a bit.

Perry and Bachmann will fight over the Tea Party vote. How long that fight lasts, and whether it ends in a bitter fight, or an alliance, could determine if Romney gets the nomination. I think Bachmann is running for VP all the way. She could be the king maker. But just as Palin pulled down McCain in 2008, both Perry and Romney know the same would be true of Bachmann.

The Tea Party suffered in the polls from their stance in the debt ceiling debacle. And there's probably more of this to come between now and the elections. But the Republican party is run by the BIG money people and I think the willingness of the Tea Party in congress to send the economy over the cliff scared the hell out of them. In fact, I think the big money is going to dry up for "true" Tea Party candidates.

So as long as Perry and Bachmann split the Tea Party vote, Romney's chances increase. If Perry and Bachmann unite, Romney's religion will be such a drag on him, Perry wins in the end.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I'm not so sure.

Your points above are valid, but Perry also made lots of noises on such subjects as Texas seceding from the Union.

Thus the normal 'governor as mini-stage for responsibilities of President' meme is potentially overshadowed by Perry's nearly equal nutty public image as compared to Bachmann.

Perry also doesn't have what Bachmann does - or more specifically has what Bachmann doesn't: a genetic calling card to voters outside the South.

Perry also isn't Bush Jr. in that he doesn't have any type of even theoretical reach to Hispanic voters - having a record of opposing amnesty, increasing border security, etc etc.

Both appeal strongly to the hard core right wing, but are frankly unelectable barring a truly impressive economic collapse in the next year.

[Slimprofits]

Let's kick it off, 15 months out. This is not a thread for ideological debates. Please keep your partisan hackery to yourself. From time to time I will update with odds, polls etc.

If I had to guess today, I'd say that Rick Perry is going to be the GOP nominee. The big money will split between him and Romney and the Heartland base of voters will give it to Perry, not Bachmann. He's a Governor with a history that Bachmann can't touch as a mere Representative. Obama coming out of the Senate was not the start of a new trend. The big money is not backing Bachmann, she's getting the small money checks from the Heartland.