Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I thought Romney made Perry look foolish last night. It’ll be interesting to see how the poll numbers move after this.

[lektrode]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

maybe because if there isnt one, that our (US) very survival - at least the lifestyle to which most have grown quite accustomed to - is at stake?

necessity being the mother of motivation an all...

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

If anyone thinks there is any kind of political awakening around the corner, they are horribly mistaken.

I guess past is prologue. There haven't been any political awakenings in generations--not since Goldwater and the Civil Rights movement--so why should this time be any different?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

All of the rhetoric coming out of Washington is about spending, debt and deficits. It's been that way since 2010 mid-terms or perhaps the election of Scott Brown.

The politicians all claim they can fix the economy either by cutting taxes, raising spending or a combination of both and the message has been hammered home in the media for well over a year straight. The economy itself is always second banana to the debt.

So much so that the real committed Democrats will tell you that the economy crashed as a result of the Bush tax cuts. Or for what it's worth, that's the chatter I've heard recently. People just end up mimicing what their party leaders say. Of course on the other hand we've got conservatives that equate any attempt to clean up gov and properly regulate the banking system with red tape that strangulates potential new small business creators...

If anyone thinks there is any kind of political awakening around the corner, they are horribly mistaken.

[jk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

vp marco rubio- telegenic hispanic conservative floridian, "crown prince" of the tea party movement.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

A new PPP poll:

Obama leads Romney by 4, Perry by 11 nationally

President Obama’s jobs speech last Thursday night might have given him a boost in his bid for re-election. After tying his perpetually strongest potential challenger Mitt Romney last month, Obama again leads him, but still by a smaller margin than he beat John McCain in the national popular vote three years ago. Everyone else far underperforms McCain, who lost to the president in a near landslide.

Obama tops Romney, 49-45, up from a 45-all tie in PPP’s August national poll. He leads Rick Perry, 52-41 (49-43 in August); Newt Gingrich, 53-41; and Michele Bachmann, 53-39 (50-42). Were voters given the choice to reconsider the 2008 election, they would still elect Obama, but by only five points (51-46), when he actually won by seven, indicating some voters have changed their minds, but that not just any GOP nominee will do.

The president’s more solid standing in the Perry and Romney horseraces comes from consolidating his party support. He was losing 13% of Democrats to each candidate in August, but only 11% to Romney and 9% to Perry now. Obama has meanwhile upped his own crossover support, from 5% to 9% of Republicans versus Romney and 10% to 11% against Perry. The president leads Perry by ten points with independents, but Romney tops Obama by two with them.

Americans are at odds with the Republican candidates on some of their controversial statements. 54% believe in global warming, and 51% in evolution. Only 37% do not believe in each. Only 10% would support eliminating Social Security, while 82% would not. Only 20% agree with Perry that the program is a “Ponzi scheme,” and 70% do not. Even Republicans disagree on that, 39-49.

“In just three weeks Barack Obama has nearly doubled his lead over Rick Perry,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That would seem to be an indication that Perry’s comments about Social Security are giving him trouble with swing voters.”

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...ationally.html

[wayiwalk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I'm only thinking the need for someone from the south if Romney is the candidate. I don't think he comes across as very southern. He's from Michigan, was governor of Massachusetts, and headed up an investment firm that later focused on leveraged buyouts. Sounds like a carpetbagger to me.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I think Palin is poison and Bachmann too much like Palin to ever get picked for VP. I think you're spot on that they need a real conservative to keep the Tea Party interested, but the South is a Lock for the Repubs, except for maybe Florida which is a must state, so maybe Scott. Since NO politician is very popular these days, picking a sitting Governor or Senator may be very difficult. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick from someone who's on the sideline like Giuliani, or Huckabee, but in the end I think we see Perry/Romney. Neither one could refuse a VP offer and the party will be so torn up by the end of this process, it may be the only way to patch things up.



I wasn't at all impressed with the Palin piece. Every politician has to run as an "outsider" and this is pretty much what you would expect them to say. You have to run against those scoundrels on both sides of the Isle to show you're not one of them. Every poll shows "pox on both houses" will be the attitude of the electorate.

Last nights Tea Party debate was telling. They're not going to hold back from going after Perry. Romney knows this is his last shot, and Bachmann thinks she can still get a VP shot if she can keep her poll numbers reasonably high. But Bachmann also knows her best shot is with Romney since Perry can carry the TP vote.

I think turnout will be exceptionally low next year, but it may be from both sides. The Dem base is demoralized at Obama's refusal to fight for their causes, and the country club Repubs are scared to death that the Tea Party will send the country over the edge on a debt ceiling or budget fight.

One thing I'm sure of, it's a looooong way to the election and there will be events that we can't even anticipate that will have a major influence on the outcome of the race.

Obama won NC last time so the south is not a lock for the republicans

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I don't think we should exclude the possibility that the Repub VP nominee could be someone who is not one of the current candidates running for the president position. It was just 4 years ago that they pulled Sarah Palin in from nowhere for that place....maybe they could find a more suitable governor for that role?

If the presidential nominee is Romney, then I think they'll go deep south, maybe with Jindal or a leading female politician OTHER than Bachmann or Palin.

I think Palin is poison and Bachmann too much like Palin to ever get picked for VP. I think you're spot on that they need a real conservative to keep the Tea Party interested, but the South is a Lock for the Repubs, except for maybe Florida which is a must state, so maybe Scott. Since NO politician is very popular these days, picking a sitting Governor or Senator may be very difficult. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick from someone who's on the sideline like Giuliani, or Huckabee, but in the end I think we see Perry/Romney. Neither one could refuse a VP offer and the party will be so torn up by the end of this process, it may be the only way to patch things up.

Re: the Palin opinion piece - her views don't shock me at all. I don't think she's "presidential" material, and has that weakness of thinking she belongs playing at that level (intellectually). But her views are pretty consistent of an outsider saying it like it is, which is the story of her potlical career (until 2008). Whether or not one likes her views on religion, guns, "drillin'" etc have nothing to do with it.

I wasn't at all impressed with the Palin piece. Every politician has to run as an "outsider" and this is pretty much what you would expect them to say. You have to run against those scoundrels on both sides of the Isle to show you're not one of them. Every poll shows "pox on both houses" will be the attitude of the electorate.

Last nights Tea Party debate was telling. They're not going to hold back from going after Perry. Romney knows this is his last shot, and Bachmann thinks she can still get a VP shot if she can keep her poll numbers reasonably high. But Bachmann also knows her best shot is with Romney since Perry can carry the TP vote.

I think turnout will be exceptionally low next year, but it may be from both sides. The Dem base is demoralized at Obama's refusal to fight for their causes, and the country club Repubs are scared to death that the Tea Party will send the country over the edge on a debt ceiling or budget fight.

One thing I'm sure of, it's a looooong way to the election and there will be events that we can't even anticipate that will have a major influence on the outcome of the race.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

A follow up thought, too.

The biggest group that the 2012 nominees will need to pander to will be the baby boomers, particularly those who have lost their jobs and those who never had, lost, or stand to lose more of, their retirement savings.

So ultimately, I agree with the observations above, it's the economy, stupid. And I'm as far from a supporter as possible, but I'll say this, I'd never count Obama out. He can also "change" by naming a new VP nominee, such as, Hillary. It's all about winning, power, and control, and as we saw in 2008, the long followed rules of the game can be updated to ensure victory.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I don't think we should exclude the possibility that the Repub VP nominee could be someone who is not one of the current candidates running for the president position. It was just 4 years ago that they pulled Sarah Palin in from nowhere for that place....maybe they could find a more suitable governor for that role?

If the presidential nominee is Romney, then I think they'll go deep south, maybe with Jindal or a leading female politician OTHER than Bachmann or Palin.

Re: the Palin opinion piece - her views don't shock me at all. I don't think she's "presidential" material, and has that weakness of thinking she belongs playing at that level (intellectually). But her views are pretty consistent of an outsider saying it like it is, which is the story of her potlical career (until 2008). Whether or not one likes her views on religion, guns, "drillin'" etc have nothing to do with it.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

unfortunately i think that the answer to both of these questions is "no." i suspect that the next president, either obama again or the republican, will only see things get worse, because the political system will conspire to keep anything significant from being done. then, maybe in 2016, we can get some real change, hopefully for the better.

+1

[jk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Do any of these people really have what it takes to lead us out of this mess? Is it even possible?

unfortunately i think that the answer to both of these questions is "no." i suspect that the next president, either obama again or the republican, will only see things get worse, because the political system will conspire to keep anything significant from being done. then, maybe in 2016, we can get some real change, hopefully for the better.

[flintlock]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

bachmann was always running for VICE-president.

Exactly! And this time I think the VP choice will have more impact than usual. I agree it will be low turnout and the Republican who wants to win will have one of the current candidates as a runningmate. Namely either Bachman or Cain. I'd add Paul but that will never happen. But he would bring out the vote.

It will be really interesting to see how many turn out to vote for Obama now that he has feet of clay. This has to be the biggest election in my lifetime. Do any of these people really have what it takes to lead us out of this mess? Is it even possible?

[flintlock]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

wow...the latest gallup poll:

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Obama 46, Romney 48 Romney +2
General Election: Perry vs. Obama Gallup Obama 47, Perry 47 Tie
General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama Gallup Obama 48, Bachmann 44 Obama +4
General Election: Paul vs. Obama Gallup Obama 47, Paul 45 Obama +2
General Election: Palin vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Palin 33 Obama +17

Stock markets tanking take Obama's chances for re-election along with them...

i am a little surprised at that poll. The ron paul part specifically!

I think overall it will boil down to the economic conditions right before the election. Anyone think they will be the same a year from now? Not me. Obama is beatable, something I did'nt think possible last year. Only way i see Paul winning nomination is if things really go to hell between now and the Convention. Even then its doubtful. I think this becomes a two horse race soon, and Paul won't be one of them.