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iTulip Forecasts since 1998

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  • touchring
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    Is there an ETF that shorts commercial real estate. Why make the call now and not early this year?

    If there was one in April 2008: Time to short financials, that will be perfect. SKF up 45%-50% since April.
    Last edited by touchring; 06-29-08, 01:36 PM.

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  • jk
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    I was looking out to a point, perhaps not too far off, where bonds [finally] start to price in the inflation that is already reflected in food, fuel and so much else.
    bonds are being supported by a flight to safety and the requirement for many pension managers that they match durations of their assets and liabilities. but it's hard to see how that's enough to keep long treasuries so strong. i've seen a few commentators calling shorting long teasuries "the trade of the century." i'm holding some puts on tlt, but so far no go.

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  • GRG55
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post

    I don't know what time frame you guys are referencing, but it seems for the past two weeks, since 6/13/08, rates are down while $GOLD is up a bit.

    Since mid-March to now, yields are up, and $GOLD is down. Sorry for the chart duplication, can't seem to delete the extras.
    I was looking out to a point, perhaps not too far off, where bonds [finally] start to price in the inflation that is already reflected in food, fuel and so much else.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim Nickerson
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    metals say... no. if bond yields go up why is gold going up?
    10 Yr Note (yield) See Full Interactive Chart

    30-Yr Bond Yield See Full Interactive Chart




    2-Yr Note Yield See Full Interactive Chart


    link to 6 month $GOLD chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GO...69&a=129594324

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    Could it be that both begin to price in future inflation?

    I don't know what time frame you guys are referencing, but it seems for the past two weeks, since 6/13/08, rates are down while $GOLD is up a bit.

    Since mid-March to now, yields are up, and $GOLD is down. Sorry for the chart duplication, can't seem to delete the extras.
    Last edited by Jim Nickerson; 06-28-08, 10:35 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • GRG55
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    metals say... no. if bond yields go up why is gold going up?
    Could it be that both begin to price in future inflation?

    Leave a comment:


  • metalman
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    metals say... no. if bond yields go up why is gold going up?

    Leave a comment:


  • FRED
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    Originally posted by friendly_jacek View Post
    How about the short bonds call?
    We have not made a short 10 year Treasury Bonds call yet. We are waiting for confirmation of a March 2008 opinion of one of our advisers.

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  • friendly_jacek
    replied
    Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    How about the short bonds call?

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  • FRED
    started a topic iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    iTulip Forecasts since 1998

    This thread tracks iTulip forecasts made since the site was founded in 1998:
    Last edited by FRED; 06-24-08, 04:11 PM.
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