Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Chris -

Wouldn't it be a real 'kick in the head' (a Dean Martin favorite line) if your ideas on this outlandish polar melt topic, probably universally regarded as hilarious here among hardened skeptics of every stripe, are born out to actually be true in a mere ten years?

I cannot imagine anything working more magically, to take the entire world's mind of all of it's other innumerable squabbles: economic, political, religious - the whole ball of wax. Unheard of! Our planet host actually has the audacity to be complaining of our excretions, and threatening to evict us? :rolleyes:

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Spartacus -

Sounds like you are tied up in knots over my posts, channeling your anger into derisory 'humor'? Do you feel your personal civil liberties are in dire peril up there in Canada? Looks pretty good over where you are, from my perch.

I'll chip in my two cents from down here in the purportedly Proto-Neo-Quasi-Fascist USA - things aren't great, but I hardly feel I'm living in a police state yet old chap. Been around a good few countries in my life so far, so I have some useful 'benchmarks'. We are definitely not speaking out here in fear of our lives at this time, so the 'courage' Ms. Wolf congratulates her audience for in attending her speaking engagement may be a trifle over-rated.

That these are not the 'good old days' should be self-evident. That they are not yet the days governed by Ms. Wolf's "Blackwater-Brownshirts" may be an insight still intelligible only to those who don't go into cardiac palpitations over breathless blog articles (US has wargamed nuclear scenarios vs. Iran, therefore "Iran is about to be nuked". :confused: :p

[Chris Coles]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

I start with China. They hold in their treasury a very large quantity of dollars. The first mistake has been to assume that they sit on them. That somehow, the US, while at war in two small regions, (Iraq and Afghanistan), and is well known to be at its limits of manpower and funds yet remains, in everybody's eyes; the strongest military power. That is a very big mistake. I suspect they are going to suddenly arrive on the scene with ten times what everybody thinks they have. In arms, manpower, every field of warfare and all paid for by those dollars that were supposed to just lie in the pockets of the CCP. The upside of that evaluation is that there is a strong element of belief that their ordinary people will force a change of overall control to something much more in line with their intellectual history. As someone that lived in San Francisco once told me; the Chinese are the best landlord... they do not gouge you. So I see China becoming the new superpower, but balanced by the surrounding influences of India and Asia minor.

Turning to the debate about the Euro. Europe, as a, yes, disperate group of nations, peoples if you like; is much more stable than many give it credit. You never assume that the South Eastern States are more prosperous than say DC, so, why do you expect the same differences between say, Germany and Italy to be so destructive of the value of the Euro?

The flight to the Euro is simply based upon reality. The Euro is seen as being the strongest currency at this time that is freely available world wide.

Germany has endured the massive cost of integrating East Germany back into some semblance of prosperity while remaining stable and economically in positive balance. Spain has taken itself from a small agrarian economy to become one of the major food suppliers while at the same time becoming the leading holiday economy, certainly for the Germans and the British. Another Florida while at the same time eclipsing California's Great Valley for food production.

Italy? Every family has a wayward teenager who overspends their budget. The Italians are well liked and enjoyed. So they have economic problems? They have always had such.

Russia is a different problem. A good friend has just returned to report he felt as safe in Moscow as anywhere he has ever been and the cost of a meal matched central London. But they do not have an economy based upon the work ethic of the small businessperson as we do here in the West. Their economy is entirely based upon the idea that central control will in the end bring greater prosperity. And it has.. has it not? For the time being...

In my opinion, the straw that will break the camels back is not economic, but the weather. I fear that the breakup of the ice at each pole is moving much faster than anyone has expected. A sudden rise in sea levels will force a complete change in EVERY economy. London and New York flooded are worthless. Food for thought.

[Spartacus]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Might have been better to ask for that before assuming
(lots of edits)
At first I got angry but now i'm just finding the whole episode funny. Your "analysis" of Wolf as I remember it was (paraphrased)

"she's never lived under a repressive regime, so she has no right to write this"

then later, after no one bought that

"she makes quote marks with her fingers so don't listen to her"

And you're demanding that I write a reasonable critique?

To the extent that I wrote anything about Wolf I wrote something that she's either wrong about or has not mentioned - loss of liberties started not with any fascism but with the war on drugs, and those in power now, maybe authoritarians, maybe Bush personally are taking it further

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

C1ue -

Always appreciate your politically agnostic posts. You are about as idealistic and sentimental about political persuasions as a Gila Monster might be about eating it's next four legged dinner.

Spartacus -

I'm interested in those aspects of Ms. Wolf's analysis of America's slide into mere Fascism you disagree with, rather than those you agree with. I've never actually read anything of yours specifically skeptical or qualified of such views. What's your "position paper" on this topic?

[c1ue]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Lukester,

Overconsumption is the method, debt is the result.

Germany's war debt was basically a consolidation of Allied costs thrown onto Germany; American debt is a result of overconsumption from the President down to John Smith; from foreign adventures however well intentioned to buying new cars every 2 years, and down towards shifting from $0.50 crap coffee to $3.50 Starbucks.

Sure, when the debt pyramid collapses, there will be suffering spread around.

But the countries doing to saving and working will still have savings and work; the country doing its best locust imitation will have a long tough winter ahead.

EJ and others have faith in innovation to get out of this mess, but the only creativity I've seen evidence of in resolving debt crises has been financial innovation.

Creativity does well for increasing production, but the problem with a debt pyramid is that consumption needs to be permanently reduced.

Innovation such as LEDs to replace incandescent or even fluorescent lights is great, but when TSHTF, there simply won't be the capital needed for the nation nor its individuals to invest in new technologies. This basically blunts the short term effects of all but a 'fusion' type innovation.

Even in the 'dilithium crystal'/fusion power scenario - I shudder to think what the economic dislocation would be: where would all the oil company/exploration company/gas station/combustion engine service employees go? Who'd pay to retool all of the cars in America?

There will eventually be benefits, but when the choice is eating or retooling the car, I'm guessing the choices will uniformly be for the former.

The innovative and the capitalists will simply do what they've been doing since time immemorial - move to better economic climates.

[Spartacus]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Sorry Spartacus -

You seem to post in truncated sentences. I'm not sure what you are saying / asking / clarifying here.

just repeating the sequence of posts

I posted a suggestion that JK read a couple of authors.

From that suggestion you seem to have concluded that I completely agree with everything Naomi Wolf and several unnamed authors ever wrote.

Just asking how one follows from the other

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Sorry Spartacus -

You seem to post in truncated sentences. I'm not sure what you are saying / asking / clarifying here.

[Spartacus]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Spartacus -

As for the US nuking Iran, I would recommend not hyperventilating about that. It's an extremely remote, (and fairly shrill) hypothesis. The whole baggage that goes along with this world-view suggests you find no significant gaps in reading the 'inexorable conclusions' of authors such as Ms. Wolf.

I suggest someone (not you, JK) read PCR, Seymour Hersh and Karen Kwiatkowski,

therefore I agree with everything Naomi Wolf (AND VARIOUS UNNAMED OTHERS) ever wrote.

Is that what you meant to write?

That you know I completely agree with authors you have not even named?

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Spartacus -

Neither of you had to beat the other to be the first to post that suggestion, as it was fully anticipated by me that someone would post such objections regardless. I think I'll leave that reading to you! If you think I'm unaware of these issues you are mistaken. I factor them, and I don't buy at least half (if not more) of the ideologically labored baggage which they carry along with that strand of an idea.

As for the US nuking Iran, I would recommend not hyperventilating about that. It's an extremely remote, (and fairly shrill) hypothesis. The whole baggage that goes along with this world-view suggests you find no significant gaps in reading the 'inexorable conclusions' of authors such as Ms. Wolf. For myself, I'm quite skeptical her views exercise a sufficiently broad field of probing observations about the wider context and issues, and I object to their highly selective focus in certain directions, and soft-pillow-down like silence in entire other (very broad, deep and critical) areas of international affairs.

I'll beat Rajiv to this - you should you read Paul Craig Roberts and Seymour Hersh re: plans to nuke Iran. Also Karen Kwiatkowski on how the neocons pushed the Iraq campaign through US military intelligence

[Spartacus]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

I'll beat Rajiv to this - you should you read Paul Craig Roberts and Seymour Hersh re: plans to nuke Iran

Also Karen Kwiatkowski on how the neocons pushed the Iraq campaign through US military intelligence

the u.s. is the over-indebted country about to embark on a new experience [for the u.s.]: a severe and inflationary recession. let's hope there are no military adventures fomented to distract us from our pain.

[bart]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Bart -

Overconsumption = Derivatives? That's news to me Bart.

Further, the 'derivatives' mess is arguably worse for the many other countries holding these time bombs, as they can't print more of the senior currency to paper over the cracks, unlike the US, which can.

Please note we've got people around here with a good few years in business in multiple locations overseas who seem remarkably certain the dollar won't be totally eclipsed as the senior currency for a while yet.

Lots of grey areas in there. I appreciate your reminding me that the scale of derivatives dwarfs any debt which Weimar Germany carried relative to GDP. But that is a firecracker that will take multiple countries down, and C1ue's analogy was regarding the US events, as distinct from any others.

Did Weimar have a senior currency?

No, overconsumption does not equal derivatives unless you're consuming too much Orwell.

True on it being arguable about which country will be most affected by derivatives but I urge you to consider that both the US's share is way higher than its GDP share of the world and that US multi-nationals are not accounted for properly in the world wide breakdown.

As far as Weimar, the facts of it remain the same regardless of senior currency issues.

[jk]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

the u.s. is the over-indebted country about to embark on a new experience [for the u.s.]: a severe and inflationary recession. let's hope there are no military adventures fomented to distract us from our pain.

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Bart -

Overconsumption = Derivatives? That's news to me Bart.

Further, the 'derivatives' mess is arguably worse for the many other countries holding these time bombs, as they can't print more of the senior currency to paper over the cracks, unlike the US, which can.

Please note we've got people around here with a good few years in business in multiple locations overseas who seem remarkably certain the dollar won't be totally eclipsed as the senior currency for a while yet.

Lots of grey areas in there. I appreciate your reminding me that the scale of derivatives dwarfs any debt which Weimar Germany carried relative to GDP. But that is a firecracker that will take multiple countries down, and C1ue's analogy was regarding the US events, as distinct from any others.

Did Weimar have a senior currency?

[bart]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

C1ue -

...

It's really important however that one recognize, one absolutely cannot substitute overconsumption for war debts. One is voluntary, with options for change open within it's future, the other involuntary, trapped by past events. And people in those two situations really can't finesse that difference too much at all.

This is part of the what now seems fashionable around here - to equate many aspects of Weimar to the US. There are one or two limited parallels, but that's about it. I think Metalman at one point tried to point that out too, elsewhere.

I'll be gentle... ;)

The best parallel for Weimar war debts today in my opinion are derivatives and general very high indebtedness.

Debt to GDP today is way higher than at any other time is US history at roughly 3.6x, and just 100% US only attributed derivatives are well over $150 Trillion. World wide, it's over $500 trillion which is about 7-8 times total world GDP.