Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

[Down Under]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

all that's gonna happen to stocks is... sooner or later... they'll stop falling like a bag of turds out a high rise window and finally hit the ground and go.... 'splat!'

Ah, that gave me a good laugh; just what I needed.

[metalman]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

I was reading down through this thread and when I came upon this post, I just knew that the High Inquisitor of iTulip, Cardinal Metalman de Torquemada, would soon appear and punish your heresy with his withering sarcasm. Keep it up and you're sure to get the comfy chair!

my withering posts? i don't hold a candle to *t*

[Master Shake]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

Oil and Dr. Copper appear to be sending a broad hint that they want to mak a major turn. Stock market boom cannot be far behind them. Actually these two commodities are not just "hinting" that they want to complete a turn and break out, they already **are** breaking out. April-May-June turn is coming up right on schedule it seems.

All those inclined to smirk at technician's terminology and methods may have to wipe their commiserating smiles away in a hurry in May-June if this unfolds as described. Right? Or will they remember to despite the fact one of these technicians appears to be the earliest to note these budding trend changes below?

So while iTulip's apprehensive observers abandon all hope and begin to wallow in the most apocalyptic, pessimistically abandoned visions of our near term financial future, this humble "navel gazing" technician is pointing out such musings are already looking distinctly passe'. Will the doomers give him credit in June if or when he proves right? Going on past precedent, most likely not.

I've been suggesting this for six months. I am looking forward to all the sheepish comments if it actually unfolds this spring.

Beware short positions going into April.

I was reading down through this thread and when I came upon this post, I just knew that the High Inquisitor of iTulip, Cardinal Metalman de Torquemada, would soon appear and punish your heresy with his withering sarcasm. Keep it up and you're sure to get the comfy chair!

[jtabeb]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

A good economy can easily be ruined by bad human action, whereas good human action leads to a good economy. .

Yes. (It is the actors in question that you an I seem to disagree on).

Read about Wiemar inflation, if you don't think people act rationally during irrational times. The will react rationally, given the situation at the time. Hence, good economic policy leads to a well functioning society, not vice versa. Yes cause and effect.

Show me any social ill that cannot be directly attributed to economic conditions and I'll change my mind. Till then, no.

[ASH]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

All those inclined to smirk at technician's terminology and methods may have to wipe their commiserating smiles away in a hurry in May-June if this unfolds as described. Right?

I've been suggesting this for six months. I am looking forward to all the sheepish comments if it actually unfolds this spring.

You'll get your props from me -- don't worry.

[occdude]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

If you turn that statement around COMPLETELY, then it will be correct.

As in:

The problems with society did not come first, it is the problems with an economy that happen before you have societal collapse. Cause and effect.

As in, people don't act like uneducated baffoons when it only takes one worker making median wages to support a family of four, but when it takes 3.5 workers making median wages to support a family of four your get societal problems.

Don't try any historical revisionism on this, it's just a bold face lie to claim otherwise.

(please read ANY study of socio-economics over the past 29 years to get a idea of what I'm talking about)

Put simply, your premise is ass-backwards.

Your saying that the bus has no driver. Economy acts as a RESULT of human action, not vice versa. If you explore cause and effect, you find that the reason why a worker needs to work harder to support himself is because his productivity isn't keeping up with his consumption. He wants more than he can produce and if he can't support that desire with current productivity he needs to borrow it. When a society borrows heavily, it leads to a artificial rise in prices which are only made possible by access to easy credit. He borrows for current consumption which means he MUST either produce more in the future or consume less to pay his debts.

The problem with society which lead up to economic ones are man has infinite desires and limited resources. This is basic human nature, codified by economic principle. Good economics should act as a brake on that base human instinct, but since human activity governs economics and not vice versa economic principles of growth can be circumvented for a while vis a vie credit and monetary debasement.


Societal virtues of thrift, savings and productivity are what drives a good economy. A good economy can easily be ruined by bad human action, whereas good human action leads to a good economy. Your argument is a determistic one and seems to assume that humans act like laboratory rats influenced by the "animal spirits" of an economy.

[cjppjc]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

My worst case scenario is nuclear armageddon with famine and radiation poisoning quickly thereafter. We then get a mad max crossed with the hills have eyes scenario. On the bright side, no more bankers. Odds are uncomfortably more than 0% and with the end of days evangelical christians and zionist jews, who really knows. Palin '12!!!!!

Something to look forward to.:eek:

[kartius919]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

My worst case scenario is nuclear armageddon with famine and radiation poisoning quickly thereafter. We then get a mad max crossed with the hills have eyes scenario. On the bright side, no more bankers. Odds are uncomfortably more than 0% and with the end of days evangelical christians and zionist jews, who really knows. Palin '12!!!!!

[jtabeb]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Excellent points, and I especially "like" those tax tables too. Nothing like the raw data to show those who weren't there what was actually happening - geezers need love too... ;)

Like I said, SO BOLDFACE so as to be a waste of time.

You know how you refute someone who says that 2+2 =7. You don't, it's a waste of time!

[metalman]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

put the hocus pocus charts away and think a minute.

what has to happen for the markets to rally?

- oligarchs roll over and take a huge loss so the banking system comes back
- some genius in the oligarch's machine room on wall street invents a brand new securitized debt thingy or other to make more credit
- $10 trillion in vanished money appears from no where

all that's gonna happen to stocks is... sooner or later... they'll stop falling like a bag of turds out a high rise window and finally hit the ground and go.... 'splat!'

then we'll spend 10 years cleaning it up.

you've been chasing this allusive stock rally all year.

here's a better use of a pan with a handle...

[bart]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

My posts here should add weight to your comment particularly my figures using shadowstat CPI and the discussion following it.

Excellent points, and I especially "like" those tax tables too. Nothing like the raw data to show those who weren't there what was actually happening - geezers need love too... ;)

[Rajiv]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

My posts here should add weight to your comment particularly my figures using shadowstat CPI and the discussion following it.

[Rajiv]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

I will assign a very low probablity for its occurence in North America (and I include Mexico in that geographic area) -- I think the probability is much higher in other parts of the world -- but that will have its ripple effects in North America as well.

[jtabeb]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

The economic problems did not come first, it is problems with a society that happen before economic ones.

.

If you turn that statement around COMPLETELY, then it will be correct.

As in:

The problems with society did not come first, it is the problems with an economy that happen before you have societal collapse. Cause and effect.

As in, people don't act like uneducated baffoons when it only takes one worker making median wages to support a family of four, but when it takes 3.5 workers making median wages to support a family of four your get societal problems.

Don't try any historical revisionism on this, it's just a bold face lie to claim otherwise.

(please read ANY study of socio-economics over the past 29 years to get a idea of what I'm talking about)

Put simply, your premise is ass-backwards.

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

Oil and Dr. Copper appear to be sending a broad hint that they want to mak a major turn. Stock market boom cannot be far behind them. Actually these two commodities are not just "hinting" that they want to complete a turn and break out, they already **are** breaking out. April-May-June turn is coming up right on schedule it seems.

All those inclined to smirk at technician's terminology and methods may have to wipe their commiserating smiles away in a hurry in May-June if this unfolds as described. Right? Or will they remember to despite the fact one of these technicians appears to be the earliest to note these budding trend changes below?

So while iTulip's apprehensive observers abandon all hope and begin to wallow in the most apocalyptic, pessimistically abandoned visions of our near term financial future, this humble "navel gazing" technician is pointing out such musings are already looking distinctly passe'. Will the doomers give him credit in June if or when he proves right? Going on past precedent, most likely not.

I've been suggesting this for six months. I am looking forward to all the sheepish comments if it actually unfolds this spring.

Beware short positions going into April.